Be careful what you wish for, you may get it
FredF
Posts: 527 ✭✭✭
Found this today.
January Heritage auction - 1873 3cs PCGS PR65 DCAM CAC - sold for $8225. I am betting the buyer saw an upgrade opportunity as it seems from the photos as a nice coin. https://coins.ha.com/itm/three-cent-silver/two-and-three-cents/1873-3cs-pr65-deep-cameo-pcgs-cac/a/1251-3438.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
Same exact coin in the June Heritage auction - successful upgrade. 1873 3cs PCGS PR65+ DCAM CAC. Sold for $6462.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/three-cent-silver/two-and-three-cents/1873-3cs-pr65-deep-cameo-pcgs-cac/a/1256-3213.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
My hunch, knowing nothing about the actual winner, is that the underbidder from the January auction may have been interested, but that the upgrade to 65+ didn't draw any more bidders in.
20% loss in 6 months and the coin did actually upgrade. Ouch.
(I'd be thrilled to own this coin myself. It is way out of my realm of things I can afford though).
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
Comments
I appreciate it when you guys do this kind of research as it is always educational and enlightening.
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
Maybe the underbidder for the 3SC found another coin he liked and wasn't interested anymore?
Beware of thin markets. The missing underbidder can be devastating.
He can make it up on volume. Next coin , please
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I find that people are increasingly not being fooled by a 1-point upgrade any more. If the coin is recognizable, it's possible that it will sell for the same amount or less in the upgraded holder. There are some exceptions, of course, which are mostly the Registry level coins, for which a 1-point upgrade means something.
Thanks for sharing your research
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb, Ricko
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
Very interesting post--thanks for sharing
I love it.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
That is very interesting... an upgrade (the fees and resubmit to CAC) and then sold for almost $2k less.... Disappointing for sure.... Cheers, RickO
Nice research. The coin went way too high in the first auction, selling near 66 retail.
I wonder if the original buyer thought it would upgrade to 66. Also don't know how many times it was submitted before the buyer settled on the 65+.
Also, with a total pop of 600 minted and many fewer survivors, especially in the very top grades, I wonder how accurate the price guide is for "66 retail." I don't know how often these change hands for them to get a good read on actual prices.
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
Note to self: Destroy all records in the public realm of any coin I buy.
I would think you would have to be very astute to see the difference in a 65 and a 65+ on a trime and even then it would be a crapshoot dependent on the grader that day. And as mentioned, these are a thin market.
K
Perhaps the expectation was for a 66, not a +?
A few years ago, earning a plus would = big bucks.
Now, it's a 1/2 point in the Registry game and not so much a sure thing at sale time. As said, exceptions abound, especially around top pops.
When it comes to my series, three or four years ago getting a 65+ out of a 1928 Philly or 1934-S Peace dollar equated to around $4-5k more at sale time. Now, with more + coins showing up all the time the effect on pricing has diminished considerably. In fact, I'd say 65+ coins are now selling around the same prices that PQ 65 coins used to sell for. In some ways, I think the + has made it more difficult to get the "full point" upgrade. Anecdotally, on regrade review it's much easier to get the half point jump from 65 to 65+ than it is to go from 65+ to 66.
I'm surprised that the forum member who specializes in the 3¢S hasn't chimed in. Maybe he was the June consignor ?
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.american-legacy-coins.com
Isn't this basically the entire coin market?
This is my thought too. Someone was looking for a score and the minor upgrade may have undermined faith that it would upgrade to a PF66 DCAM or better.
That sounds like a good thing, to me in the perspective of grades being validated by the market.
Lesson there somewhere. Nice work.
Sure is a flashy one though, isn't it?
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
No doubt a once nicely toned original gem CAM that was dipped for a DCAM. Now starting to tone back with some unsightly brownish "accents."
If they keep listing it maybe it will fall into your price range.
Very nice research.