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If a coin is flipped nine times in a row and comes up heads each time. . .
abcde12345
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. . . wouldn't logic dictate it HAS to come up tails on the tenth flip (no cheating)? It can't still just be 50/50 even though
that what textbooks declare.
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50/50 unless it is a double headed coin or is altered in some other fashion.
Perhaps logic and probability are two different things.
How is it being flipped, perhaps there is some bias in the flipping operation.
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That's cheating!
If you had a million dollars to gamble, you wouldn't bet on tails instead of heads (again)?
NO
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Assuming the coin is legit, the probability of heads vs tails is identical. Zinc has no memory of previous results.
Trivial statistics. The textbooks are correct.
Just under 50/50 as there is a very slim chance the coin will land on it's edge.
Scary how information can alter the timeline of reality.
Fair enough @ErrorsOnCoins
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Logic "says" one flip has no influence, bearing or otherwise anything to do with next flip. That's called superstition.
Heads 9 times in a row suggests some sort of bias in play. If the coin is flipped EXACTLY the same each time it should always come up the same. Over time, random events will draw to their statistical expectations.
Each flip has a 50/50 chance... the preceding flip has nothing to do with it. Thinking such as that is what sells lottery tickets....
Coin flips should be normal bell curve distribution.
Tenth flip coming up heads after nine tails
0.00976563 ~~ 1\/102.4\n (assuming a fair coin) percentage, (.09 chance) so yes, logic says your flip example of tails / heads makes sense, but every flip is 50/50, it's the occurrence of tails/heads over 10 flips that is .09%,
http://calculator.mathcaptain.com/coin-toss-probability-calculator.html
If it lands on heads again, send it in Express level. No reason to chance it.
Can you even have a meaningful bell curve with just 2 events?
No, you need each event. You know that. WTF
I shud have said choices i.e. H or T, not the number of flips.
I guess. Don't care.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Thinking outside of the carton. Like!
It's worth the extra $7. dollars to get the vintage tag too.
It sounds like I might be the one doing the flipping. Even on a good night I can get heads only about 90% of the time so if I want heads on the 10th flip it should be about a 90% chance.
Wanna play some poker?
In fact, the likelihood of flipping 9 heads in a row is so small, one might conclude there is something else at play, (unfair coin, manipulation by the flipper, etc.), and your better bet may be to assume the NEXT flip is more likely to be Heads than Tails!
But the best move would be to walk away. My assumption would be a variation on the street corner "shell game", and you're being played.
Added:
Just to expound on this.
There are 1024 possible outcomes from flipping a fair coin in a fair manner 10 times. (2^10=1024).
Exactly ONE of those is "HHHHHHHHHH". So the probability of flipping it is 1/1024 = 0.000977, or 0.0977%
So, you should be very suspicious of anyone claiming to have flipped 10 heads in a row. Suspicious that it wasn't a fair flip of a fair coin, at the very least.
Then why respond? If you included the edge which IMO has zero likelihood then it would look even less like a curve; it would look like an upside down W.
Maybe call it a Bell diagram!
Does the "heads" of the coin portray a cat? Don't cats always land right side up...on their feet...unless they have buttered toast on their back...then it's up for grabs?
Hand Engraved Ornate Cat Coin by Shaun Hughes by shaun750
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Whatever. Like I said before, don't care.
For a single flip the odds are 50/50. But what are the odds that in 10 flips you'd get heads 10x? Just for arguments sake let's make the numbers easy and say 1 in 100, or 1%. So after 9 flips and 9 heads is there still only a 1% chance that that last flip is heads? If so, shouldn't there be a 99% chance the last flip will end up tails? Or am I way off here?
The problem is assuming the coin knows what the last 9, (or 15, or 100), flips were, and will act accordingly based on that history.
As noted, a fair flip of a fair coin will be 50/50, no matter what happened in the last 10 minutes, or the last 100 years.
(I still say your proper response to hearing that there were 9 consecutive flips of Heads is to stop trusting either the coin, or the person who told you that).
coin flips are binomial, not a normal distribution.
What are the odds if this electrum hekte from ancient Greece is flipped?
You're comparing odds of 2 different events; a single flip vs a string of flips. The odds of the single flip are still 50/50 whilst continuing the string of heads would be 1%.
Not sure that's the right way to look at it.
More like this:
If you have made NO flips, the chance of getting 10 straight heads is 1/1024.
If you have already flipped 9 heads in a row, the chance of getting 10 is 1/2.
In other words, most of the hard work has already taken place! You somehow managed to have 9 in the bag, and just need the 10th!
Is there some way to tag a post #salty ? I can't quite agree , disagree , like or LOL to this .
It's still two different events, each of which happens to have its own set of probabilities. They just coincidentally happen to be the same for the tenth coin.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hI-j9TItxtU
Well said. :thumbsup
Still infrequent enough that the likelihood of it happening can be ignored for the present discussion.
Kinda like the probability of this happening on a regular basis.
ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/wisconsins-sam-dekker-threw-down-an-alley-oop-that-went-through-the-hoop-twice
Very lucky
Objection , council is Badgering the witness
If I had a million dollars to gamble, I'd wager that I wouldn't use that money to gamble
I don't believe anything I see on video clips now-a-days. I've seen very convincing ones where people jump out of computer screens, disappear behind sheets, fly over houses, etc. The editors are just too good....
(I'm getting cranky in my old age....)
I agree, you would do excellent at a roulette table
Or this no coin flip in the Packers Cardinals game. how do you not flip it? Crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sjAyQcv0oM&feature=player_embedded
True, but on my google search there were many to chose from. Logic says at least one if not most of them are real.
If 9 dealers flip the same coin and make money, what are the chances the collector will be happy with what they paid for it at the end?
8 Reales Madness Collection
counsel.
I'd take the opposite bet - that it would be heads again. Worst case it's 50/50 but if there's something funky with the coin that causes a heads bias then it could be even greater
First off, the OP gave only 2 options H or T.
AFAIK there is no finite known probability that a coin will land on its edge.
If it does then one would ignore it and keep going or start over.
Also there are 3 probabilities to contend with if one wants to get picky.
The probability that 10 coin flips will produce all H or T. That's fixed at 1/1024.
The probability that the string will continue as each coin is flipped. This changes as you go.
The probability that a single flip will give H or T is always 1/2.