@cohodk said:
If they sold it for spot minus 79c, what would be the true value of silver? Spot -79c, spot, or spot +79c?
Why does it even matter since PM pricing is fluxional and variable? As soon as it goes off sale your purchase could be worth more or if spot drops the next day it would likely be worth less.
Another thing. If I buy an ounce of gold for $20 over what is the true value of gold? If I'm a little spendier and buy 10 ounces at $10 over what is the true value of gold? If I buy the same ounce of the same gold at $50 under from a CraigsList ad, what is the true value of gold?
@cohodk said:
If they sold it for spot minus 79c, what would be the true value of silver? Spot -79c, spot, or spot +79c?
Why does it even matter since PM pricing is fluxional and variable? As soon as it goes off sale your purchase could be worth more or if spot drops the next day it would likely be worth less.
Another thing. If I buy an ounce of gold for $20 over what is the true value of gold? If I'm a little spendier and buy 10 ounces at $10 over what is the true value of gold? If I buy the same ounce of the same gold at $50 under from a CraigsList ad, what is the true value of gold?
@cohodk said:
If they sold it for spot minus 79c, what would be the true value of silver? Spot -79c, spot, or spot +79c?
Why does it even matter since PM pricing is fluxional and variable? As soon as it goes off sale your purchase could be worth more or if spot drops the next day it would likely be worth less.
Another thing. If I buy an ounce of gold for $20 over what is the true value of gold? If I'm a little spendier and buy 10 ounces at $10 over what is the true value of gold? If I buy the same ounce of the same gold at $50 under from a CraigsList ad, what is the true value of gold?
Answer : about $20 less than yesterday
Yeah. I noticed that APMEX cut their price, A LOT!
Apparently there are large hoards from Europe still coming to market. Once they are graded, there is no efficient marketing to sell them at higher premiums. Is there any way to look at the PCGS population changes month-to-month? It would be interesting to follow the population increases for the 1924 and 1927 St. Gaudens $20.
Consensus seems to be too much supply from Europe. So do the Europeans not believe gold is "insurance" or safety, or an asset to protect them in the event of a currency crises. Some believe the Euro is in much worse shape to weather a storm than the dollar, so why aren't the Europeans buying gold?
I'm not sure why, but I'm absolutely pleased by it, as the eagles and double eagles are some of my favorite series ever, and I've never really had the opportunity to play in this market, but I will be in the coming months. My plan is to stack the less rare years in pcgs ms63, and look at them a lot
I have a few new AGE's, including a pf70uc NGC, but we all know numismatic-speaking, these will never be pre-33 gold lever rare, nor cool.
@cohodk said:
Consensus seems to be too much supply from Europe. So do the Europeans not believe gold is "insurance" or safety, or an asset to protect them in the event of a currency crises. Some believe the Euro is in much worse shape to weather a storm than the dollar, so why aren't the Europeans buying gold?
Is consensus from people who don't know, really concensus at all?...
@cohodk said:
Consensus seems to be too much supply from Europe. So do the Europeans not believe gold is "insurance" or safety, or an asset to protect them in the event of a currency crises. Some believe the Euro is in much worse shape to weather a storm than the dollar, so why aren't the Europeans buying gold?
You're interpretation of the consensus is incorrect. While some common date $20 gold US coins may be arriving from europe, europeans are buying gold more than ever. Export of any product to US does not mean oversupply in europe. At best it means a bigger market or better prices.
_A modern AGE is just a lump , no one example means anything more than another. No history behind it , no date means anything to anyone no one will demand 2014's over 2010's who cares . _
Actually, that's not really the case. There are dates that command higher premiums, just like with $20 Saints. By the way, what's the history behind a 1924 Saint? Better yet, pick a date and tell me the history.
The story used to be that any old gold would be exempt from a new confiscation order as "collectible" coinage. I don't see that as valid anymore, since the whole modern bullion production was offered by the government to the public for investment, and all of the West Point production has been designated as "collector coinage".
Just sayin.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
_A modern AGE is just a lump , no one example means anything more than another. No history behind it , no date means anything to anyone no one will demand 2014's over 2010's who cares . _
Actually, that's not really the case. There are dates that command higher premiums, just like with $20 Saints. By the way, what's the history behind a 1924 Saint? Better yet, pick a date and tell me the history.
The story used to be that any old gold would be exempt from a new confiscation order as "collectible" coinage. I don't see that as valid anymore, since the whole modern bullion production was offered by the government to the public for investment, and all of the West Point production has been designated as "collector coinage".
Just sayin.
I don't doubt there are a few people putting together date sets of modern gold I'm sure but not because they are in love with them. There are about 7 people doing that and they have thousands of coins apiece for every date. They read that book "Modern Commemorative coins" and probably bought a bunch of ugly commemorative dollars also because they looked at the charts and bought into the semi- key nonsense.
One theory is as good as the next I suppose but the guy that wrote that book cashed his paychecks a long time ago and he doesn't care if he was wrong or not. He will write another book if he is short of cash I'm sure.
I remember my first take on the coin collecting phenomenon was, "why would anybody pay more than a penny for a 1924-D Lincoln Cent? Note that my next thought was, "if I can find one of those, I'll be rich!" Only after I'd looked through thousands of Lincolns did I come to appreciate what a nice VF Lincoln looks like.
The reasons I buy modern bullion are twofold - I think it's smart to accumulate bullion, and I like collecting a date set of modern bullion with a relatively low premium structure while I'm busy accumulating. Along the way, it's become apparent that the old relationships between price and scarcity apply in modern bullion just as they apply for old gold or any other collectable coins.
ericj96 is an engineer if I recall correctly, and his book simply used some good analytical techniques in making educated guesses about what new issues might develop the highest premiums due to scarcity. His book has some valid analyses, although the market took a dive just after it was published. I can't think of much in the book that isn't still valid.
The interesting thing is that modern bullion hasn't been marked up and resold with embedded dealer markups a few dozen times over the years like most classic coins. The values aren't pigeonholed by a small cartel of dealers.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Back to the OP, the lower premiums are across the board for classic and modern bullion both. The reason is because collecting has taken a backseat to basal value.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Back to the OP, the lower premiums are across the board for classic and modern bullion both. The reason is because collecting has taken a backseat to basal value.
If moderns are more valued just due to purity standpoint, then why not skip the premiums altogether on coins and go Pamp/Perth bars? They're at least as stunning as an ASE if not more so, more pure (same as buffalo), but are available in 1/5/10/100gr sizes, which is much more useful/useable in scenario of SHTF. They aren't US currency, but at $50, yeah I'm never using it for that. (Much less a classic gold slabbed, nah)
Just an idea. Way. Way. Better value and price. Over all moderns.
Modern US bullion will not be all that "collectible" in my opinion in this world. No circulation, quaspbillions minted, almost all specimens perfect. I know what the rarer ones ask for in a 70 slab, just don't think it holds. Just my take tho.
Go long on gold. I put $1000 dollars cash in the bank in 2009. And I bought an ounce of gold for $1000 8 years ago, too. The fees at the bank turned my cash into less. The gold ounce is now worth $200 more. And that's with zero premium added. Go figure. Everyone's experience and timing may be different.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Go long on gold. I put $1000 dollars cash in the bank in 2009. And I bought an ounce of gold for $1000 8 years ago, too. The fees at the bank turned my cash into less. The gold ounce is now worth $200 more. And that's with zero premium added. Go figure. Everyone's experience and timing may be different.
Some would say [even in retrospect] that neither of those options was a wise choice. Had you put the $1,000 into your dresser drawer instead of the bank, you'd still have $1,000.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Go long on gold. I put $1000 dollars cash in the bank in 2009. And I bought an ounce of gold for $1000 8 years ago, too. The fees at the bank turned my cash into less. The gold ounce is now worth $200 more. And that's with zero premium added. Go figure. Everyone's experience and timing may be different.
Some would say [even in retrospect] that neither of those options was a wise choice. Had you put the $1,000 into your dresser drawer instead of the bank, you'd still have $1,000.
First, I'd find a different bank.
Second, the 10 year treasury has averaged about 3%. That's $30 per year. Your $1000 is now worth $1240, not figuring compounding.
I see it as a correction to what a lot of world gold issues are trading for as these are out there in huge numbers. Many investors want AGE, AGB close to melt too.
Generic gold is just that, generic. It is common, common, common. As a result it has been reduced to little more than disks of bullion of known content and weight.
largely because it is one of the last choices when building a stack of gold coins to leverage inflation. demand is half the formula for price discovery.
@derryb said:
Aanswer still stands today:
largely because it is one of the last choices when building a stack of gold coins to leverage inflation. demand is half >the formula for price discovery.
"Demand is half the forumla for price discover"-- translation, please ?
@derryb said:
Aanswer still stands today:
largely because it is one of the last choices when building a stack of gold coins to leverage inflation. demand is half >the formula for price discovery.
"Demand is half the forumla for price discovery"-- translation, please ?
Suppy is the other half of the formula. You can make it more complicated if you wish, but it boils down to this:
@GoldFinger1969 said: Hitting $4,000 for gold COMEX will probably put a generic MS-65 Saint at about $4,200 or a bit higher.
Unreal.....wow.
Heritage as of today will sell you slabbed MS65 Saints for $4110 each....or about $110 over the gold price.
That's 5.7% over the melt value of the Saint.
@roadrunner said:
Heritage as of today will sell you slabbed MS65 Saints for $4110 each....or about $110 over the gold price.
That's 5.7% over the melt value of the Saint.
@GoldFinger1969 said: Hitting $4,000 for gold COMEX will probably put a generic MS-65 Saint at about $4,200 or a bit higher.
Unreal.....wow.
Heritage as of today will sell you slabbed MS65 Saints for $4110 each....or about $110 over the gold price.
That's 5.7% over the melt value of the Saint.
pre-33 gold is .9675 agw, so their premium is more than 110
The Greysheet from November 2018 had a really interesting cover story entitled "Is It Time For a New Perspective On Generic Gold ?"
The article talks about how at that time (2018) the premiums had come down bigtime on Type Sets and individual coins.
Back in 1998 (20 years earlier)...... gold was $290 an ounce. Generic MS-60 Saints were listed for $510, an 80% premium. $10 Indians MS-60 were $360, a 155% premium. $2.50 and $5 coins were listed for $185 and $250, respectively....425% and 350% premiums !!
2018 ? Well, with gold $1,200 an ounce at time of publication (> 300% increase)....premiums fell, as we have seen today with gold over $4,000. MS-60 Saints in Fall 2018 were $1,220, $60 over spot (< 10% !!) adjusting for the gold content.....MS-60 Indians about $660 ($80 over spot, 13%)....$5 and $2.50 were about $380 (30% and $85 above spot) and $270 ($145 and about 90% premium for the smallest coin).
I would guess ALL of these premiums for the MS-60's are even LOWER and you can probably go up a few grades to keep the same premium amount or percentage.
@derryb said:
it is about gold. This is where it should be.
US Coins includes GOLD coins.
Gold/silver eagles are US coins. Discussions about precious metals are not limited to just bars. Anything containing a precious metal is open game for this forum, even sterling flatware. Feel free to discuss YOUR precious metals in any forum you wish, but I don't think the comic book guys will welcome you.
It's interesting that all the conspiracy theories towards banks or other players in the PM market never seem to hit the refiners or the folks who deal in "junk silver" and tank the market at periodic or market peaks, like we have seen recently with skyrocketing lease rates and prices for actual silver at a steep discount to paper silver.
@roadrunner said:
Heritage as of today will sell you slabbed MS65 Saints for $4110 each....or about $110 over the gold price.
That's 5.7% over the melt value of the Saint.
Great catch, RR...and that was my point, that the premiums are falling as the price of gold goes up. We've never seen a rise in the gold price in absolute dollars that we have in the last few years.
Not sure S&D matters per se....demand clearly falls as price goes higher ergo the premium has to fall. But there are SOME price-insensitive buyers who are buying bullion-only and these people keep pushing the price up which means that retail buys less as the price goes higher and retail balks at paying the 25% premium on an MS-65 Saint common.
The unique nature of a numismatic coin -- with most of the underlying value often pure gold -- is what is at play here and it's fascinating. Haven't seen anything like this probably since the folks buying overseas Double Eagles and other gold coins in the 1960's saw the price skyrocket in the 1970's, both bullion and numismatic.
It does appear that the premiums faded from the 100-200% seen in the 1960's to a bit less as gold approached $300/ounce based on the price matrices I have in Roger Burdette's SAINT-GAUDENS DOUBLE EAGLES book.
Comments
Why does it even matter since PM pricing is fluxional and variable? As soon as it goes off sale your purchase could be worth more or if spot drops the next day it would likely be worth less.
Another thing. If I buy an ounce of gold for $20 over what is the true value of gold? If I'm a little spendier and buy 10 ounces at $10 over what is the true value of gold? If I buy the same ounce of the same gold at $50 under from a CraigsList ad, what is the true value of gold?
Answer : about $20 less than yesterday
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Yeah. I noticed that APMEX cut their price, A LOT!
True value of the silver remains unchanged. Value of the currency has changed.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
Typically, people change the price/value of what you are buying and not what you are buying the item with.
LoL, is that why the US dollar buys 3 times as much silver today as it did in 1979?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It is usually fallacious to say that there is a "true value" of anything. All prices and markets are local, and they fluctuate.
What's the True Value of a gallon of clean water? Well, that depends on where you are, and how long since you've had a sip.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
That was a long time ago....even before Microsoft, or the interent. A time when price discovery was via postcards, with stamps!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Apparently there are large hoards from Europe still coming to market. Once they are graded, there is no efficient marketing to sell them at higher premiums. Is there any way to look at the PCGS population changes month-to-month? It would be interesting to follow the population increases for the 1924 and 1927 St. Gaudens $20.
Consensus seems to be too much supply from Europe. So do the Europeans not believe gold is "insurance" or safety, or an asset to protect them in the event of a currency crises. Some believe the Euro is in much worse shape to weather a storm than the dollar, so why aren't the Europeans buying gold?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm not sure why, but I'm absolutely pleased by it, as the eagles and double eagles are some of my favorite series ever, and I've never really had the opportunity to play in this market, but I will be in the coming months. My plan is to stack the less rare years in pcgs ms63, and look at them a lot
I have a few new AGE's, including a pf70uc NGC, but we all know numismatic-speaking, these will never be pre-33 gold lever rare, nor cool.
Is consensus from people who don't know, really concensus at all?...
You're interpretation of the consensus is incorrect. While some common date $20 gold US coins may be arriving from europe, europeans are buying gold more than ever. Export of any product to US does not mean oversupply in europe. At best it means a bigger market or better prices.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
It might behoove gold bugs to graph the rate of fiat money creation compared to gold production. Interesting stuff.
Premium drops when there is oversupply....there is oversupply.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Maybe some patriotic stiff wants to repatriate American gold coins!
_A modern AGE is just a lump , no one example means anything more than another. No history behind it , no date means anything to anyone no one will demand 2014's over 2010's who cares . _
Actually, that's not really the case. There are dates that command higher premiums, just like with $20 Saints. By the way, what's the history behind a 1924 Saint? Better yet, pick a date and tell me the history.
The story used to be that any old gold would be exempt from a new confiscation order as "collectible" coinage. I don't see that as valid anymore, since the whole modern bullion production was offered by the government to the public for investment, and all of the West Point production has been designated as "collector coinage".
Just sayin.
I knew it would happen.
I don't doubt there are a few people putting together date sets of modern gold I'm sure but not because they are in love with them. There are about 7 people doing that and they have thousands of coins apiece for every date. They read that book "Modern Commemorative coins" and probably bought a bunch of ugly commemorative dollars also because they looked at the charts and bought into the semi- key nonsense.
One theory is as good as the next I suppose but the guy that wrote that book cashed his paychecks a long time ago and he doesn't care if he was wrong or not. He will write another book if he is short of cash I'm sure.
I remember my first take on the coin collecting phenomenon was, "why would anybody pay more than a penny for a 1924-D Lincoln Cent? Note that my next thought was, "if I can find one of those, I'll be rich!" Only after I'd looked through thousands of Lincolns did I come to appreciate what a nice VF Lincoln looks like.
The reasons I buy modern bullion are twofold - I think it's smart to accumulate bullion, and I like collecting a date set of modern bullion with a relatively low premium structure while I'm busy accumulating. Along the way, it's become apparent that the old relationships between price and scarcity apply in modern bullion just as they apply for old gold or any other collectable coins.
ericj96 is an engineer if I recall correctly, and his book simply used some good analytical techniques in making educated guesses about what new issues might develop the highest premiums due to scarcity. His book has some valid analyses, although the market took a dive just after it was published. I can't think of much in the book that isn't still valid.
The interesting thing is that modern bullion hasn't been marked up and resold with embedded dealer markups a few dozen times over the years like most classic coins. The values aren't pigeonholed by a small cartel of dealers.
I knew it would happen.
Back to the OP, the lower premiums are across the board for classic and modern bullion both. The reason is because collecting has taken a backseat to basal value.
I knew it would happen.
And I believe that to be a good thing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If moderns are more valued just due to purity standpoint, then why not skip the premiums altogether on coins and go Pamp/Perth bars? They're at least as stunning as an ASE if not more so, more pure (same as buffalo), but are available in 1/5/10/100gr sizes, which is much more useful/useable in scenario of SHTF. They aren't US currency, but at $50, yeah I'm never using it for that. (Much less a classic gold slabbed, nah)
Just an idea. Way. Way. Better value and price. Over all moderns.
Modern US bullion will not be all that "collectible" in my opinion in this world. No circulation, quaspbillions minted, almost all specimens perfect. I know what the rarer ones ask for in a 70 slab, just don't think it holds. Just my take tho.
Go long on gold. I put $1000 dollars cash in the bank in 2009. And I bought an ounce of gold for $1000 8 years ago, too. The fees at the bank turned my cash into less. The gold ounce is now worth $200 more. And that's with zero premium added. Go figure. Everyone's experience and timing may be different.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Some would say [even in retrospect] that neither of those options was a wise choice. Had you put the $1,000 into your dresser drawer instead of the bank, you'd still have $1,000.
First, I'd find a different bank.
Second, the 10 year treasury has averaged about 3%. That's $30 per year. Your $1000 is now worth $1240, not figuring compounding.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What?... That's some cheap insurance...
I bought some scrap gold for less. I'd like to buy some more tomorrow for even less.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I see it as a correction to what a lot of world gold issues are trading for as these are out there in huge numbers. Many investors want AGE, AGB close to melt too.
Generic gold is just that, generic. It is common, common, common. As a result it has been reduced to little more than disks of bullion of known content and weight.
Thought this thread might have some interest to see where today's premiums are with a gold price almost TRIPLE what it was back in 2017.
Aanswer still stands today:
largely because it is one of the last choices when building a stack of gold coins to leverage inflation. demand is half the formula for price discovery.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
"Demand is half the forumla for price discover"-- translation, please ?
Suppy is the other half of the formula. You can make it more complicated if you wish, but it boils down to this:
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
Oversupply of gold? Current price tells us supply cannot meet demand.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
Hitting $4,000 for gold COMEX will probably put a generic MS-65 Saint at about $4,200 or a bit higher.
Unreal.....wow.
because gold is at record highs.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
Heritage as of today will sell you slabbed MS65 Saints for $4110 each....or about $110 over the gold price.
That's 5.7% over the melt value of the Saint.
Does that include the bp ?
pre-33 gold is .9675 agw, so their premium is more than 110
Hit just below $4,400 on COMEX this evening, this has got to be scary for dealers.
The Greysheet from November 2018 had a really interesting cover story entitled "Is It Time For a New Perspective On Generic Gold ?"
The article talks about how at that time (2018) the premiums had come down bigtime on Type Sets and individual coins.
Back in 1998 (20 years earlier)...... gold was $290 an ounce. Generic MS-60 Saints were listed for $510, an 80% premium. $10 Indians MS-60 were $360, a 155% premium. $2.50 and $5 coins were listed for $185 and $250, respectively....425% and 350% premiums !!
2018 ? Well, with gold $1,200 an ounce at time of publication (> 300% increase)....premiums fell, as we have seen today with gold over $4,000. MS-60 Saints in Fall 2018 were $1,220, $60 over spot (< 10% !!) adjusting for the gold content.....MS-60 Indians about $660 ($80 over spot, 13%)....$5 and $2.50 were about $380 (30% and $85 above spot) and $270 ($145 and about 90% premium for the smallest coin).
I would guess ALL of these premiums for the MS-60's are even LOWER and you can probably go up a few grades to keep the same premium amount or percentage.
This Thread is about generic gold premiums....numismatics, in other words.
How come it got moved to Precious Metals from the US Coins section ?
Unlike discussions here about stock, bonds and being a big money manager, it is about gold. This is where it should be.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
THE most boring discos are about the paper. Good Lord
COPPER is gutter !
US Coins includes GOLD coins.
Gold/silver eagles are US coins. Discussions about precious metals are not limited to just bars. Anything containing a precious metal is open game for this forum, even sterling flatware. Feel free to discuss YOUR precious metals in any forum you wish, but I don't think the comic book guys will welcome you.
The East Is Buying Gold. The West Is Buying Time.
Seems.it was the apathy that makes bottoms. Pay attention jmski.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's interesting that all the conspiracy theories towards banks or other players in the PM market never seem to hit the refiners or the folks who deal in "junk silver" and tank the market at periodic or market peaks, like we have seen recently with skyrocketing lease rates and prices for actual silver at a steep discount to paper silver.
Just saying.....
Great catch, RR...and that was my point, that the premiums are falling as the price of gold goes up. We've never seen a rise in the gold price in absolute dollars that we have in the last few years.
Not sure S&D matters per se....demand clearly falls as price goes higher ergo the premium has to fall. But there are SOME price-insensitive buyers who are buying bullion-only and these people keep pushing the price up which means that retail buys less as the price goes higher and retail balks at paying the 25% premium on an MS-65 Saint common.
The unique nature of a numismatic coin -- with most of the underlying value often pure gold -- is what is at play here and it's fascinating. Haven't seen anything like this probably since the folks buying overseas Double Eagles and other gold coins in the 1960's saw the price skyrocket in the 1970's, both bullion and numismatic.
It does appear that the premiums faded from the 100-200% seen in the 1960's to a bit less as gold approached $300/ounce based on the price matrices I have in Roger Burdette's SAINT-GAUDENS DOUBLE EAGLES book.
100
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5