What U.S. coins have dropped the most in price since 2008?
rhedden
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Many forum members believe that the U.S. coin market reached a high point of sorts in 2008. Of course, not all U.S. coins reached a peak exactly at that time, but many popular series have declined somewhat in recent years. As a result, the bargain hunter in me is wondering what U.S. coins have lost the most value since the purported market high 8 to 9 years ago. I have a good idea about coins in series I actively collect, but I would love to hear from collectors and dealers in other areas.
Here's the catch: let's make an attempt to leave gradeflation and crackout/upgrade issues out of the conversation, even though these subjects are significant market factors. In other words, it's not fair to say I can buy a certain coin in MS67 for a lot less money now, if a large percentage of the given coins presently residing in MS67 holders were actually housed in MS66 holders in 2008. We are talking about actual, tangible drops in value.
With that being said, my question can be posed as follows: "which U.S. coins have lost the most value since 2008, assuming they can be bought in the same holder / same grade right now?"
Comments
85 and 86 v nickels 09s and 31s wheats 32d and 32s quarters
HAPPY COLLECTING
Why the need to add color to moderns? Both classic commems and modern commems are created under similar programs.
Would you call classic commems classic crap
What kind of percentage drops are we talking about with modern commems? Any specific examples?
I can list some seated coins with their prices in 2008 and now in 2015-2017.
PCGS MS67 no motto seated halves were fetching $45K-$64K in 2008. That top coin today is more like $35K.
NGC MS67 no drapery seated half, ex-Knoxville, finest graded by 2 points. Brought $350K-$375K around 2008 and only $135K-$175K in more recent appearances.
I would think the vast majority of Barber and Seated choice/gem type coins are quite a bit lower today. The ones that are the same or higher tend to be the finest knowns, or the top 2-3 coins. And they probably need to be in PCGS CAC holders. Gem/choice NGC 19th century silver type coins in general (bust, barber, seated) have for the most part been crushed. It doesn't take much looking to figure that out. I posted a particular example just 2 weeks ago. NGC MS66 1851 half, 2nd best graded in 2002. Offered for $32,500 in 2002. Couldn't sell for $20K's. Eventually sold for $16K-$17K by 2004 when downgraded to PCGS MS65. Just brought under $10,000 as PCGS MS65 in recent late 2016 Legend Auction. Quite a fall when you can't even reach your 2002-2003 high.
1989 was an even bigger peak than 2008. Many gem gold and silver type coins, gem Dated Morgans, Classic Commems, many gem 20th dated coins from 1916-1947, gem "common" 19th century nickel type, never got close to their 1989 highs in 2008.
I was going to point to MS65 common date Barber halves as a good example of coins that have taken a beating, but it's tough to make an argument without acknowledging the gradeflation issue that has seemingly changed the definition of MS65. The good thing about roadrunner's analysis is that Gem Seated material is scarce enough that one can track individual coins and see how far they have fallen.
I am glad that most of my Seated material is better date coins in circulated grades. Keys and semi-keys in circulated grades have actually risen since 2008 in many cases.
How about a typical 1892/1893 MS65 Columbian that was selling for $3500-$4000 in 1989. Today around $350-$450. At the 2008 peak they couldn't have been any higher than $500-$600. Some people might lump most classic commems in with more modern material. Regardless, they took their lumps but good. I'd say something like a gem MS67 Iowa is down 25-40% since 2008. I paid $425-$450 for a really nice one in 2008. Doubt that would bring more than $275-$300 today.
Coins with true scarcity under heavy demand. Things like 1815 or 1839-0 halves in any grade. Lots of bust type coins in circ, especially AU55-58 capped bust halves or bust anything for that matter. The AU55-58 everyman range has exploded...while similar coins graded 61-63 have slipped back. I'd bet lots of RED 19th century copper is higher today. RED Lincoln MPLs might be as well.
A coin I once owned, the now finest graded PCGS 1858-0 dime (MS66) was fairly recently at around $24K. Back in 2008 it was "only" NGC MS66 and was probably around the $12K-$14K range (it brought $9K in 2004). The recent shift into a PCGS holder, getting stickered helped boost it to a new, all time high. And it also got a + making it 66+ CAC. So that was an example of a coin formerly shunned because of the holder (failed to cross several times). But once crossed, stickered ,and plused, it took additional steps higher as it crossed into the single highest PCGS had graded. No one (but Gene) cared when it was the highest NGC had graded. He bought the coin...not the holder.
As a series, it sure seems like Classic Commems would be up there. I know it's not gospel as a price guide and I know there are many layers to the classic commem market regarding toning, etc, but if you look at the historical PCGS "guide" prices, it seems like most are off somewhere around 50% over the last 10 years. As an example, the MS-65 "guide" price for an 1892 Columbian 10 years ago was $875...current "guide" price is $325. Hard to imagine the bottom being much lower for classic commems, but then again I thought that 18 months ago and they've fallen considerably since then, so it shows what I know about them.
Yes, some coins have done quite well. Here are a few examples using the PCGS price guide as a reference. Granted, price guides have their limitations, but we have to go by something.
1895-O Barber dime, PCGS MS64. Listed at $15k in 2008; held steady and increased to $17k recently.
1861-S quarter, PCGS F12: $450 in 2008, $1250 currently
1870-cc quarter, PCGS F12. Listed at $13.5k in 2008; held steady and then increased to $14.5 in 2013. I paid $14k for a PCGS VG10 last year.
1909-o Barber quarter, PCGS AU55. Listed at $525 in early 2008, presently $1400. (Perhaps this is a bad example, as both of those prices are substantially below actual trading prices, and they might make a Barber quarter enthusiast somewhat irate)
1815/2 Bust half, PCGS AU55: Listed at $12,500 in mid-2008, now $18,500.
1856-S Seated 50c, PCGS AU55. Listed at $1,900 in 2008, presently $2,850.
1864-S Seated 50c PCGS AU55: Listed at $350 in 2008, presently $675.
There are many more examples I could quote, but the main thing they have in common is very low certified populations. None of the coins listed above are easy to find, nor were they in 2008. A second thing they (mostly) share is that they appeal to a substantial population of collectors. Roadrunner's examples that lost value are coins that appeal to a small number of collectors who can afford to play with the big-ticket items. In other words, it hurts badly if one person leaves the market.
Rhedden, would you pay $1250 for one of those in FINE? I wouldn't even want to pay the 2008 $450. That date to me is nothing special until you start getting up into the VF-XF range. Somewhat similar to 58-s, and 59-s. Someone has convinced the priced guide people that these are key dates in Fine when they aren't. I could see paying the $1250 for a FINE 42-0 sd, 51-0, 52-0, 64-s, 66-s, 67-s, etc.....which are all semi-keys. Don't see it for 55-s to 58-s or 61-s, 62-s.
I bought an XF45 1858-s for $1050 just after 2008. I was lucky in that CDN was stupidly low at the time with XF at $600 and AU's at $1200. The dealer sold it to me at CDN in between money. Yet, at that time, XF's were bringing $3,500+ and AU's $4,000-$5,000. Today they are definitely lower than that. So while the price guide has sort of caught up since 2008....the actual trading prices have actually fallen since 2008 on many of the semi-keys and scarce dates. The 58-s in XF has fallen. The very low certified pops are probably because 50-75% of seated collectors still prefer their coins raw and don't care about getting them graded....at least not until it's time to sell their sets. There's just no reason to send in your FINE 1861-s until you want to sell. An 1870-cc is a different story. I'd want that graded now no matter what. A large % of 70-cc's have been graded....while a fairly small % of 61-s quarters below VF-XF have been sent in.
I don't know about the 1861-S quarter being overrated, roadrunner. I have a lowly VG in my set that I have not been able to upgrade with a coin that has good eye appeal. I think this coin is really nasty to locate in F12 or higher. It compares well with 1860-S in the middle circulated grades, assuming you won't settle for an ugly coin. I'm quite sure it's tougher than 1858-S or 1859-S. I'd probably not pay $1250 for an F-12, but I do think it has increased substantially in price since 2008.
Thanks Rhedden. I'll take your input as gospel on the 61-s since you've been looking for them. I'll pay more attention to them in the Fine range in the future. Like most better date S mint seated quarters, the majority of them have been brutalized and beaten. Hard to find any of those pre-1874 "S" mints in original, problem-free condition with nice appeal.
Other coins that have dropped a TON since 2008....gem generic gold from $1's to $10's. The smaller denominations have been hammered. The $1's and $2-1/2's just crushed 50-60% from 2008-2016. Actually, most of those peaked back in spring 2006...and have been driven to 10 yr lows in 2015-2016. Armageddon. Even important coins like $3 gold pieces are down around 50% or more in MS63/64/65. That $30K+ MS65 back in 2006 could have been bought for $10K-$15K more recently. CAC has softened those blows a bit in that many of the stickered MS65 gold types bring 20-50% premiums. Gradeinflation has taken a toll here too.
I think it's more about demographic trends than the greater fool. What's happening in the hobby shouldn't be a huge surprise if you look at income distribution trends.
Given wealth trends as shown below, it's not surprising the top coins would do well and others would do less well.
It could be interesting to break up the PCGS 3000 into similar percentiles, e.g. top 1%, middle 60% and bottom 20%. While middling coins are decreasing in value, this can be because while incomes remain constant, expenses are rising.
Ms65 FBL franklins....
No numbers to provide, but I remember hearing Franklin St ook a beating in this latest market downturn.
High grade 1909 S VDB's
Aka
Via my instagram @treycoins
I know 09 SVDB's are over done and over hyped but... I have owned at least ten and made money on everyone of them. Not bragging, it is just one of the coins people buy, solid blue chip coin...
1997 $5 Jackie Unc, esp in MS70 has dropped about 70℅
http://www.pcgs.com/prices/frame.aspx?type=coinindex&filename=prtype
The CU PCGS 3000 index gives some clues. The best performing sub-index is the proof gold. It had a very nice ascending price up into the 2008 highs and still pushed to higher highs in 2014. The key dates and rarities index was next best performing, though topping in 2008. Everything else has done much worse. Note that Classic Commems peaked along with generic choice/gem gold back in 2006. And the 20th century index peaked in early 2005. Silver dollar index was mostly flat from 2005-2008....early signs of negative divergence that the market was beginning to lose steam.
By the indexes here, nothing in general is higher than 2008, only scattered exceptions as noted in this thread. It wouldn't appear that the rising 1% to 5% of incomes has done much to keep all but one of these indexes from falling since 2008. The proof gold coin index is probably the closest thing to a "big money" index. It has tailed off over the past 2 years too. It's a toss up between the 2 worst performing indexes. The classic commem index is down nearly 50% since 2006....while generic mint state gold is down 50% since only 2008 (winner).
Yes
(with the exception of monster toned examples).
Here are some PCGS charts for the past 10 years. In addition to proof gold, the performance of mint state rate coins and Morgan / Peace dollars is interesting, having made gains up until a few years ago.
Generic Gold
Mint State Rare Gold Coin
Proof Gold Coin
Mint State Type Coin
Proof Type Coin
Morgan & Peace Dollar
Silver & Gold Commemorative
20th Century
PCGS 3000
Key Dates & Rarities
Would the buying habits of the top 1-5% be expected to impact those overall indices?
It is interesting that recently there have been several mega sales / disbursements without necessarily collectors coming in to take their places.
I could see that coming a few years ago when a dealer at the winter FUN show was offering the four piece Jackie Robinson set in the velvet holder, and it went begging at 30% below Gray Sheet bid. I had an interest in that set because it was last multi piece commemorative set that contained the Proof and Uncirculated coins. I have all of the others, and was looking to complete the run of those sets.
That fact that no one wanted that set well below the Gray Sheet numbers spoke volumes. The promotion was over. It goes to show that cash on the nail means more than numbers on a sheet.
And just a bit of advice to those who might be attracted to "low mintages" as a sign for "investment." The mintage for the Jackie Robinson $5 gold in Uncirculated is 5,000 pieces with close to a 100% survival rate, all in high grade. That's not "rare" at all. Many 19th century gold coins have far fewer survivors than that. Unless there is a crush of collectors who are willing to pay a few thousand for that coin, it is coin invester "fly paper."
If @Zoins would kindly post the chart "number of suckers born per minute " it is well above 5000 .
I would say high grade half eagles from 1813 - 1834.
Pogue made them drop to at least half of what they were before.
It would be hard to reach that number because according to the U.S. Census Bureau the birthrate is only 251 per minute, worldwide
There is a group of people that are taken by deceptive sales tactics but I'm not sure that applies to the people on these forums. If anything, the discussion on these forums is that the vast majority of the market is not doing well, thought there are isolated bright spots. The types of collectors that may be deceived seem to be retirees that don't do much research on coins and buy primarily from a single source, such as the recent PCI lawsuit or the telemarketing companies selling top TPG slabs at inflated prices.
Without even reading all the info given I can say mine.
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The uninformed 2nd owners or should I say beloved customers of the "buy the household limit" of the latest mint turkey contingent of this very forum .
Several areas are much lower since 2008. Many 20th Century series such as SLQ, Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dimes, Seated Material in general from the 19th Century. Early type coins Bust through Early gold (including Bust dollars in XF-AU58). Also many type MS and PR coins from the 19th and 20th century. I was paying more for all these coins prior to 2008 as I'm paying now. We sell everything from a few dollars to 7 figures, across most US Coin series and we're selling coins, in general, for less than we did before the economic collapse in September 2008. I think many people forget how much coins ran up from 2001-2008. Not just the rarities but solid key dates in many series. I made one of the first 1909SVDB in PCGS 67RD in 1999 or 2000 as I recall. At the time 65RD greysheet "bid" was 1800-2000.
I couldn't get $8500 for the coin and finally sold it for $7500. While not worth 100-150K like it was a few years ago, it's still worth 50-60K, which is a heck of lot more than it was worth in 2001. I think the Set Registry concept did more to stimulate the coin hobby (along with the internet and the statehood program) and spike prices upward during this period. It really was the perfect storm. The lowering of prices IMHO is a natural result of these price increases during the 2001-2008 market. The price drops have been much more gradual than previous market drops because the collector base expanded (IMO) and coins were still liquid at a reasonable number. In other market pullbacks many coins were not even saleable at 25% of the greysheet value. Nobody wanted them AT ANY PRICE. RR, among others, probably remembers this. Our market is much broader today, PCGS is here to stay (as well as the set registry). Again, generally speaking the market is stronger than last 90 days and coins are harder to buy "at the right levels" for dealers today.
I haven't seen as much of that recently compared to the hey day 10 years ago or so. Many of the recent Mint coins have been panned here like the Lions coin.
I'd like to believe that true numismatic collectors wouldn't be taken by the greater fool theory.
Demographics of the collector base have been changing for some time and are often discussed.
The Greater Fool Theory is time-tested and works well when applied to numismatic collecting. If it were not operative, the market for rare coins (even generics) would collapse.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Thanks to Zoins for posting those PCGS 3000 charts. CNN makes some good comments about market behavior in general. Hey, the greater fool theory applies to all markets, all the time. It's just classic human behavior running in packs following the same supply vs. demand curves that apply from bull to bear markets. All of us have been the "greater fool" at one time or another whether it's buying markets near their peaks, or selling near the washout bottoms when it appears all hope is lost. No one here bought coins in summer 2008? Or sold nothing in 2009-2011? Even Pittman and Eliasberg sold near distressed market bottoms in 1996-1997. Gene Edwards, one of the sharpest seated and Barber collector/dealer of the 1970's had his collection/inventory (via his heirs) sold in summer 1982 at the very bottom of a 65-75% two year correction. Classic market timing of the peak was exhibited by Jim Halperin in April 1980 when on short notice he brought his Rare Coin Funds assembled from 1975-1978 to his company's auction house. Those prices were insanely strong. Some of those same very important and finest known coins only 6 years later were bringing 30c on the dollar at major auction....I bought two of those in 1986-1988 ($30K down to $10K and $46K down to $14K). Marketology 101.
In looking at those charts above one thing sticks out in my mind. We're much further along in these corrections than I might have initially thought. For anyone who follows Transactional Analysis (Edwards and Magee) or cycle or wave theories, we could be very near the completion of these final down waves (ie 5th wave of C in an ABC). I'll look at those more closely when I have time. It's actually sort of neat how symmetric and countable these declining waves from 2005-2008 and then 2013-2015 have been. It is unfortunate that gradeflation is "buried" in those charts and makes things not quite apples to apples. Then again, the same occurs in essence when a NYSE share price is diluted while it grows. Interesting stuff that actually helps to identify when this 8 yr malaise period starts to turn. These charts have more to offer than many realize.
The 2008 Gold Buffalo coins, including the fractionals (burnished, proof) are higher now.
I'm sure it was the one of the earlier periods, but I read an article where JJ Ford was saying the industry would regret burying people in MS66 Elgin commems (I think it was that) at $25k. Talk about a drop! Even if those were really 67's.
I believe the bubble will pop in the stock market sooner rather than later and thus coin values will plummet even further for the lower 2/3 of the coin market.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
In addition to spots being accepted, TDN mentioned that for his series flat stars are now accepted in higher grades where they weren't before. It's important to keep these in mind when looking at price changes over time.
One that immediately pops into mind are 1963 Franklins in MS64&65 FBL. But I think they are prolly the only Franks in the whole series to have appreciated.
I remember the crash of 89 when a common date MS65 Morgan was bid like $950? on CDN, and now at $150.
Not even close. By Dec 1989 MS65 Morgans were $300 or so. They might have peaked around $400-$450 in summer 1989. No common MS65, non-toner Morgan ever was bid at $950. When PCGS first opened their doors in early 1986 the price of MS65 Morgans was in the $500-$700 range. But those coins had to be monstrous as a rule, up to standards of MS66/67 today. No one in their right mind was going to pay $650 for a slabbed MS65 Morgan in 1986 when the same quality raw could be bought for say $100-$200. Supply was inelastic in 1986. By 1988 those slabbed MS65's were down to $300's as supply was catching up. If you account for gradeflation, that $300 MS65 Morgan in January 1990 is probably a MS66 today, and worth $200-$250. Not quite the picture of $950-$150 as you suggested. I bought a $20,000 deal of MS65/64 Morgans in April 1990 which was about the last hurrah of that market....the 65's were at $300 ea, the 64's at $100 each.
MS66 Elgins at $25K? Not quite. More like $3000-$3500 during the 1989 peak, which was still insane. Then again, those same coins today would be likely candidates for 66 or 67 grades. If they had color, even better. I remember paying $1650 in early 1989 for a MS65 Huguenot for a friend. Lovely coin with nice toning. That would be a no brainer 66+ today, maybe a 67, but still probably a loss. I suggested in 1990 that they sell it but they wanted to hold on. That probably strained our friendship as well. Don't buy coins for friends. A lot of people lost big dollars in the 1993-1998 year by selling those early coins based on the assigned labels.
In spring of 89 I swear I remember MS65 morgans/walkers traded hand for like $950 and MS66 at $1200? A dealer offered me like $22,500 for this pair of $10 Libs. during the height of the market in the spring of 89. Yes, I still own this pair of $10 Libs..
DancingFire, I remember those pair of $10's when you last posted them. And I checked 1989 pricing at that time. And sure enough, they were at the $22.5K level just as you remembered. I don't ever remember $950 MS65 Morgans or Walkers. Your $10's are probably 66/65 today. I'd bet they are very nice. Back in 1989 a single light hairline across the face of Miss Lib and you got a 64 even if the coin was flawless and killer otherwise. In retrospect, those kinds of "problem coins" with eye appeal have been the best performers. Many of those monster looking 64's are now in 67 holders, especially in seated and barber material....while the perfectly clean MS65's of that era having just average eye appeal.... struggle today to get a 66 grade.
Like roadrunner said, the drop after 2008 is not much in comparison to the crash from 1989.
Above is the general index of "rare" coins.
That graph is quite skewed by gem type, gem common gold, gem morgans and peace dollars, gem commems, and gem dated common 20th century sets. The bread and butter collector coins like VG-XF 1795 or 1839-0 half dollars were a very tiny subset of the PCGS 3000. Ironically, those kinds of true collector coins are the back bone of the hobby. The peak is real....and certainly over-inflated by gradeflation. Just like charting any other US investment area, you need a "deflated" dollar approach to compare 1989 to 2017. Cut that peak almost in half for starters to account for 2X gradeflation in MS/PF coinage. For charting purposes, it's still a massive peak no matter how its viewed.
Yea, I remember ANE bid was $15,500 for the MS65 and the MS64 was like $7K. A dealer offered me ANE bid for the pair and I was asking $23K, so we were like $500 apart on the price. Wish I had sold then...
The coins that seem to have gone UP since 2008 include the early pop top PCGS/ CAC stckered MS-66 walkers between 1916 through 1927 in all mints. Additionally the 20th century "patterns" including the 1942 experimental cents in all materials as well as the 1965 experimenta dimes, quarters and halves in all metals and finally, the $20 Libs; especially the Type I Period pieces in virtually all grades.
Furthermore, inexpensive sample slabs have exploded in value in many areas.
Of course the coin market is weak right now!!
I can't buy any coins now as my daugter is getting married!!
Without even reading all the info given I can say mine.