In addition I know many collectors who freely admit their weak grading skills. I have seen their collections benefit greatly by using the grading services and CAC.
"I wish it wasn't so either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez."
@MrEureka said:
Somehow, this thread doesn't seem to make coins sound like a fun hobby.
You're right. It doesn't sound fun at all. It makes the hobby sound ill, full of instability, and subject to systemic risk based on speculation of plastic and stickers. It makes sense that a certified coin and one with a CAC sticker would carry a nominal premium as a warranty over the base value (i.e. for the shiny metal disk itself); however, when we are talking 2x on a five figure coin in the same grading interval (e.g. MS63), that is not a sign of a healthy market. Threads like this are the reason I have dumped a lot of my holdings.
I think it's time for mine to head out, too.
The layers of complications just to establish PRICE are just plain exhausting.
Ask a stock guy what "exhaustion" does to any market.
Maybe that's why my last 4 coins have been foreign coins.
If layers of approval reach more heights than the enjoyment of the hobby, then the hell with the hobby.
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
-Brandon -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~- My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins] -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
@oreville said:
Sometimes going for a cross at 62+ with a CAC sticker yields a better result than a cross to 63 with no CAC.
I have groaned when PCGS was generous on a cross.
Sometimes PCGS crossing at the lower grade yielded me a CAC GOLD sticker which is even better!
I would rather have a correctly graded coin.......rather than an under graded coin with a sticker.......any day!
Can you people hear yourself.......this is collecting STICKERS rather than COINS!!!
Actually you are not hearing the message correctly nor are you trying. Sticking your head in the sand won't help.
I wish it wasn't so but either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez. Wake the F up
Oh and Happy Valentine's Day
Mark
Mark, you are missing my point. I see the need for PCGS and even CAC if that is what the collector wants/needs.
What I don't understand and never will.....is why someone would rather have a coin under graded with a sticker than have the coin correctly graded! It seems to me that a problem free and correctly graded coin would be the best possible scenario.
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
@topstuf said:
Maybe that's why my last 4 coins have been foreign coins.
Yes.... come to the Dark Side! Its definitely more fun.
Already have toe dipped in.
This thread cinches it.
As of today, I am no longer interested in purchasing US coins unless the reason is COMPELLING!
The levels of idiocy accepted in this "hobby" have risen to the point of diminishing fun.
I choose not to participate.
I see no letup in the controversy and......well...... who's got a Ecuador 5 Franco
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
-Brandon -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~- My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins] -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
Oh, gee, Moe, I'd say they need more stuff to make them certain that they might have a possible 2-3 years of certainty of the value for which they thought they paid.
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
Of course - eventually. But what if the seller asks "what's it worth" prior to getting to see it?
"...I'd say they need more stuff to make them certain that they might have a possible 2-3 years of certainty of the value for which they thought they paid."
Plastic and/or stickers will not guarantee that. I am old enough to remember when the coin market stopped in its tracks in basically one day. Even if this does not occur, what if (most of) the big dogs sell their specialty collections and exit? Prices will fall---this is why prices for MS Barber halves fell.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
Of course - eventually. But what if the seller asks "what's it worth" prior to getting to see it?
Then you would logically say -- "Well, I'd need to see it".
-Brandon -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~- My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins] -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
Of course - eventually. But what if the seller asks "what's it worth" prior to getting to see it?
Then you would logically say -- "Well, I'd need to see it".
But I cannot detect doctoring that can get by the services and I don't want to own a doctored coin. What then?
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
Of course - eventually. But what if the seller asks "what's it worth" prior to getting to see it?
Then you would logically say -- "Well, I'd need to see it".
But I cannot detect doctoring that can get by the services and I don't want to own a doctored coin. What then?
Gosh Bruce, I guess these are just the 1st world problems we have to deal with.
-Brandon -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~- My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins] -~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
_There are some vertical hairlines in the fields in front of Liberty but they are not obvious even with the coin in your hand. You have to tilt it and then they show up. I considered sending it back to try to get it in a 64 holder, but it would probably lose the CAC! Designation _
@RYK said:
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
I'm with you on this. Most likely the only thing that you can take to the grave.
@MrEureka said:
Somehow, this thread doesn't seem to make coins sound like a fun hobby.
Is it more "fun" when coins are submitted a dozen or two times in a row by the same person/company seeking an upgrade or cross? You can have that same fun at Vegas.
Fwiw the "reset" button was hit back in 2009. Now it's just a matter of watching the clock ticking down.
Cracking out a coin and auctioning/selling it raw doesn't determine its ultimate market value....except if it happens to be part of an entirely raw coin auction, which essentially don't exist today at the higher levels of price/quality. When was the last major all raw auction? I recall Stacks Buffalo Historical Society back in 2004. And part of the reason for that was that so many of the 18th/19th century silver type coins were cleaned yet had retoned in marvelous albums shades of rainbow wonderment. I don't think the consignor/auction house wanted to take a chance with the TPG's.
After reading some of the responses in this thread one can understand why some have just given up on collecting coins. On the other hand one can also appreciate the added challenge which is added to the hunt for others.
There was a guy here about 10 years ago named Paul (something) that had a #1 registry set in gold coins.
A dealer had sold him a MS68 for $160,000 but wasn't delivering it.
Turned out he had a MS67 he was sure would go MS68.
Paul got his money back, sold his collection and quit the hobby.
@northcoin said:
After reading this thread we still wonder why some have just given up on collecting coins?
This is sad. Myself.....I don't let this type of nonsense affect my collecting attitude. If you really truly love coins you just don't let this stuff bother you.
Well, for better or worse, there goes the old mantra of "Buy the coin, not the holder."
I am so tired of this ridiculous cliche. Do you know how many people have been barbecued by doing just that? A ton more than those buying PCGS/CAC coins.
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
I'm glad that the folks who have to worry about this stuff, can easily afford to be able worry about this stuff
How much is the same coin raw in the Fine to Very Fine range?
@RYK said:
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
I especially treasure memories of buying my favorite coins!
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@RYK said:
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
I especially treasure memories of buying my favorite coins!
For sure! Sometimes that is the greatest moment, and in many cases, the luster is lost over time. Sometimes it is enough to just see or hold a coin (but that would be bad for business. )
@oreville said:
Sometimes going for a cross at 62+ with a CAC sticker yields a better result than a cross to 63 with no CAC.
I have groaned when PCGS was generous on a cross.
Sometimes PCGS crossing at the lower grade yielded me a CAC GOLD sticker which is even better!
I would rather have a correctly graded coin.......rather than an under graded coin with a sticker.......any day!
Can you people hear yourself.......this is collecting STICKERS rather than COINS!!!
Actually you are not hearing the message correctly nor are you trying. Sticking your head in the sand won't help.
I wish it wasn't so but either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez. Wake the F up
Oh and Happy Valentine's Day
Mark
Wasn't that supposedly the purpose of PCGS Secure Plus (i.e. the "sniffer")?
@RYK said:
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
I wasn't aware you had quit. I always enjoyed you posting your original "dirty" gold.
@RYK said:
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
I wasn't aware you had quit. I always enjoyed you posting your original "dirty" gold.
I have not exactly quit, but the outflow has been much greater than the inflow over the last few years.
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
I'm glad that the folks who have to worry about this stuff, can easily afford to be able worry about this stuff
How much is the same coin raw in the Fine to Very Fine range?
@oreville said:
Sometimes going for a cross at 62+ with a CAC sticker yields a better result than a cross to 63 with no CAC.
I have groaned when PCGS was generous on a cross.
Sometimes PCGS crossing at the lower grade yielded me a CAC GOLD sticker which is even better!
I would rather have a correctly graded coin.......rather than an under graded coin with a sticker.......any day!
Can you people hear yourself.......this is collecting STICKERS rather than COINS!!!
Actually you are not hearing the message correctly nor are you trying. Sticking your head in the sand won't help.
I wish it wasn't so but either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez. Wake the F up
Oh and Happy Valentine's Day
Mark
Wasn't that supposedly the purpose of PCGS Secure Plus (i.e. the "sniffer")?
Oh, you're so yesterday. Get WITH it.
I'm not even sure that stickers are enough.
Add the sticker to the sniffer and get ....SNICKERS !!!
The NEWEST thing.
And to think I once had only a Dansco that I loved and cherished and that had some amazing coins just stuck in holes.
AAAAsaaaaaagggghhhhh.....
But I ....finally.... went to plastic from the Dansco.
That sounds too yesterday-1950's Sc-Fi B film gone bad... Instead we need cutting edge suspense that will create and leave a lasting spell binding impact on the mind set of everyone
The Manchurian Collectors
Coming to a Theatre and Coin Show near you...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
An average of what several people are willing to pay for it, taken over time.
That's not the way markets work. In fact, the coin is really worth different prices to different people, right now.
OK, MrEureka...What's your answer to steveben's question - what is the coin really worth?
Your response to me above seems to imply that you think the coin is worth whatever someone is willing to pay right now.
How do you price your coins to sell? Do you think that an unusually high price paid by one person means that the coin is now worth that high price and can be resold at that level?
I meant what I said. There is no single correct value for a coin, even at the moment it sells.
It used to me a mortal sin to mention "The Company That Shall Not Be Named".
Lots of emotion in this thread. I think those who rely on the coin market for a living, those who are "investing", and pure collectors all see it differently. Most of us here are probably living some mix of all three to varying degrees.
I've always just thought that buying quality material for a price that sounds fair is the good long-term play. Grading fads will come and go, but quality coins will persist through the centuries. In top pops, true rarities, and thinly traded material establishing that "fair price" is difficult, but that can work to your advantage too.
For those that know me, it should come as no surprise that the CAC price is higher than the crossover price. I can grade my series with the best of them - I am quite comfortable putting my money where my mouth is in that arena. It's the subtle doctoring that I cannot detect.
Many coins that coins that collectors think are PQ are actually net graded by the experts. Those I can do without.
@MrEureka said:
Somehow, this thread doesn't seem to make coins sound like a fun hobby.
Indeed
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@tradedollarnut said:
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
>
The irony here, is that such a system basically existed before CAC. Maybe the pricing variation wasn't always this extreme but it has always been there. Let's take a look at something like a MS65 Seated Dollar. Let's go back to summer 2008 in the pre-CAC era at the high of the coin market:
NGC MS65 very low end coin/should probably be next grade down - $25K to $35K
Doesn't cross but is decent for an NGC 65 - $35K to $45K
Crosses as PCGS MS65 but is just minimally ok for the grade - $55K
Crosses at PCGS MS65 and is very solid for the grade - $65K
Crosses at PCGS MS65 and is very pq/high end/shot potential to the next grade down the road - $75K to $85K
It's the same market with the same nuances. In essence this covers a range of 64+ to 65+...a full grade....where a doubling of price would be quite typical....sometimes it's a triple or higher. Can't blame CAC, + signs, and stickers for everything.
Our hobby has evolved in the past 50-60 years. I was an avid collector in the 1960's when I was still a teenager. As I recall BU was the ultimate grade. Grades in that era were only opinion, and at that time in my life BU was OK because I did not have the money to pursue rarities or perfect BU coins.
I find that we now value coins on the Sheldon Scale, with TPG grading on that scale, and that grading confirmed by a fourth party grader. This type of scrutinity is very well placed for coins that are $10,000 and up. But I think that it had created a drag on the hobby for "average collector" coins. I still buy RAW coins that I like, and many of them are imperfect. And when I need a difficult coin for my registry set, then I defer my grading experience to PCGS and CAC. And also to dealers that have great perspective as well. Expert help does not diminish your abilities as a collector that has a daytime job to support your passion.
But the price differential based upon TPG grade assignment as posited by TDN does exist, but I think mostly in the significant rarities market. And when we have to buy the BIG ONE to complete our collection, TDN's perspective is well shared.
The example I gave on the last page is not just for rarities or even 5 figure coins. It exists in the every day market for $1,000 coins and probably even $200 coins. Just watch GC auctions for MS65 common date Morgan dollars. They will range from $110 all the way up to $200 without any toning premium (ie white coins). Clearly, for a coin with a regular price of $125-$145, there is something "else" going on here. And that "else" is a grading/quality continuum (65--, 65-, 65, 65+, 65++). It's been around since the first major NERCG auction I attended in 1974. You don't have to believe it or even recognize it. But understand that others do and bid or buy accordingly. If it were otherwise, then EVERY PCGS/NGC MS65 1881-s would be worth $135 period. No variation.
Back in 1974 I couldn't figure out why really killer looking gem MS65 coins at auction were bringing 2X and 3X grey sheet with the dealers fighting among themselves to get them. What the &%$!? I was consistently blown out the water on those coins. Never could win any of them. But wasn't MS65 the highest grade on grey sheet? I didn't get it for a while. If finally hit me that while MS65 was the highest grade of that time....there were coins graded by the sharpest dealers as 65+, 65++.....the forerunners of our 66 and 67 grades of today. In one 1975 NERCG auction they started using the 65/70 grade to describe coins that were potentially a lot better than 65. Joel/Rettew and David Hall were doing that together in 1976 when grading Morgan dollars. Fine gradations in quality have been around for at least 40 yrs. Jim Halperin and Steve Ivy championed the idea of investor coins in the early 1970's. Blame them or give them credit for the mania to quality that has occurred.
That's the thing. The nuances were always there, the TPGs and CAC have just put them in more collectors' faces. But you can bet the guys at the top of the game saw these angles in the '40s, '70s, whenever. Quality gets top price and always has.
The difference seems to be that the price gap between great and just-barely-gradeable is widening into a chasm. I can't say if that's good or bad. I can only say that in my series, a PCGS AU58 coin may be worth $1100 on the low end and $2200 on the high end. And the $2200 coin will sell faster.
And, the $2200 coin will be CAC. But CAC is NOT what dictates that price. The coin dictates the price as it always has, and dictates CAC as well.
Well said scubafuel. I'm sure John J. Pittman and others decades before us understood the quality thing. Collectors get blind-sided by price guides where prices seem to only jump in steps. Completely bogus though in anything but generic/common coins that have active sight-unseen trading. The first time I ever went to major auction to bid on a monster gem seated rarity (March 1975) I got blown out the water. I was devastated. I also had no clue how to price such a coin. Redbook UNC price was $300. So I figured 3X that should secure a gem with room to spare. The coin sold for $1800 and I never even got my hand raised. That coin was a raving bargain at $1800 though at the time I didn't know it. 2 years later it sold for $5500 to Jim Halperin. I though he was nuts. 3 years after that it brought $30,000 in his April 1980 auction.
What I had gotten wrong was that the coin was well beyond the gem grade...and worthy of a big premium. I eventually got that coin but sure wish I had forked over the "lofty" $1800 back in 1975. The guy that paid $30,000 in 1980 got buried and sold out for $9K in 1986 (ie to me). Talk about hitting the market cycle at the wrong time. If he had held on for just 3 more years, the coin would have netted him $45,000 by 1989.... a profit. Yes, coin cycles. Buy at the wrong time for "big" coins and your chance of profiting can be delayed for a decade or more.
Comments
Well Said Mark!
In addition I know many collectors who freely admit their weak grading skills. I have seen their collections benefit greatly by using the grading services and CAC.
"I wish it wasn't so either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez."
I think it's time for mine to head out, too.
The layers of complications just to establish PRICE are just plain exhausting.
Ask a stock guy what "exhaustion" does to any market.
Maybe that's why my last 4 coins have been foreign coins.
If layers of approval reach more heights than the enjoyment of the hobby, then the hell with the hobby.
"Hobby!". HAW!
The new math does nothing for the old logic in today's market of coins.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
This is the part of coin collecting that I miss the least. My latest collecting pursuit, memories, does not require me to place a value on the memories, nor does it matter how much anyone else values those memories.
So you're not pricing the coin, you're pricing the slab and label.
Why don't you look at the actual coin and determine for yourself what it's worth?
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
Yes.... come to the Dark Side! Its definitely more fun.
8 Reales Madness Collection
Instagram: 8 Reales Numis
Mark, you are missing my point. I see the need for PCGS and even CAC if that is what the collector wants/needs.
What I don't understand and never will.....is why someone would rather have a coin under graded with a sticker than have the coin correctly graded! It seems to me that a problem free and correctly graded coin would be the best possible scenario.
Haven't read the entire thread but the OP just shows me what little value a price guide has if it doesn't break out PCGS, NGS, CAC and Non CAC
He can't because he hasn't seen the coin in hand?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Already have toe dipped in.
This thread cinches it.
As of today, I am no longer interested in purchasing US coins unless the reason is COMPELLING!
The levels of idiocy accepted in this "hobby" have risen to the point of diminishing fun.
I choose not to participate.
I see no letup in the controversy and......well...... who's got a Ecuador 5 Franco
that isn't presently in China?
Wow! This is breaking news, perhaps he has been listening and is now open to the possibilities.
"I see the need for PCGS and even CAC if that is what the collector wants/needs."
If buying a coin at that level I'm going to see it in hand...or at least someone is that I trust a LOT. Even if you're a 0.1%-er like TDN, I'd guess you'd want to see a coin like this in hand.
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My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
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What do coin collectors ....NEED...?
Oh, gee, Moe, I'd say they need more stuff to make them certain that they might have a possible 2-3 years of certainty of the value for which they thought they paid.
Of course - eventually. But what if the seller asks "what's it worth" prior to getting to see it?
"...I'd say they need more stuff to make them certain that they might have a possible 2-3 years of certainty of the value for which they thought they paid."
Plastic and/or stickers will not guarantee that. I am old enough to remember when the coin market stopped in its tracks in basically one day. Even if this does not occur, what if (most of) the big dogs sell their specialty collections and exit? Prices will fall---this is why prices for MS Barber halves fell.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Breaking news... coins in the same grade are worth different amounts.
The + grade and CAC just highlight the differences that have always existed.
Look at the recent sales for a 21-s Morgan in 65.
Prices range from $588 to $2124
Then you would logically say -- "Well, I'd need to see it".
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My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
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But I cannot detect doctoring that can get by the services and I don't want to own a doctored coin. What then?
People make offers on coins all the time contingent upon either crossing or stickering what's wrong with assigning values to each instance?
Gosh Bruce, I guess these are just the 1st world problems we have to deal with.
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My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
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Just got this back on a coin I had a question on:
_There are some vertical hairlines in the fields in front of Liberty but they are not obvious even with the coin in your hand. You have to tilt it and then they show up. I considered sending it back to try to get it in a 64 holder, but it would probably lose the CAC! Designation _
........wheee
I'm with you on this. Most likely the only thing that you can take to the grave.
Is it more "fun" when coins are submitted a dozen or two times in a row by the same person/company seeking an upgrade or cross? You can have that same fun at Vegas.
Fwiw the "reset" button was hit back in 2009. Now it's just a matter of watching the clock ticking down.
Cracking out a coin and auctioning/selling it raw doesn't determine its ultimate market value....except if it happens to be part of an entirely raw coin auction, which essentially don't exist today at the higher levels of price/quality. When was the last major all raw auction? I recall Stacks Buffalo Historical Society back in 2004. And part of the reason for that was that so many of the 18th/19th century silver type coins were cleaned yet had retoned in marvelous albums shades of rainbow wonderment. I don't think the consignor/auction house wanted to take a chance with the TPG's.
After reading some of the responses in this thread one can understand why some have just given up on collecting coins. On the other hand one can also appreciate the added challenge which is added to the hunt for others.
There was a guy here about 10 years ago named Paul (something) that had a #1 registry set in gold coins.
A dealer had sold him a MS68 for $160,000 but wasn't delivering it.
Turned out he had a MS67 he was sure would go MS68.
Paul got his money back, sold his collection and quit the hobby.
the sticker people?
Sounds like a Grade B SciFi movie title.
The Sticker People
Attaching labels to coins already graded. The Horror!
This is sad. Myself.....I don't let this type of nonsense affect my collecting attitude. If you really truly love coins you just don't let this stuff bother you.
I am so tired of this ridiculous cliche. Do you know how many people have been barbecued by doing just that? A ton more than those buying PCGS/CAC coins.
"Buy the coin, not the holder."
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sorry, I don't get the reason to post this image.
Toothless guy with a killer coin?
Hhmm. Looked around. It's probably Breen? I don't get it. Why post this?
Explain.
I'm glad that the folks who have to worry about this stuff, can easily afford to be able worry about this stuff
How much is the same coin raw in the Fine to Very Fine range?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I especially treasure memories of buying my favorite coins!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
For sure! Sometimes that is the greatest moment, and in many cases, the luster is lost over time. Sometimes it is enough to just see or hold a coin (but that would be bad for business.
)
Wasn't that supposedly the purpose of PCGS Secure Plus (i.e. the "sniffer")?
I wasn't aware you had quit. I always enjoyed you posting your original "dirty" gold.
Nice to see that grading knowledge is actually an asset in today's market.
I have not exactly quit, but the outflow has been much greater than the inflow over the last few years.
$87 if not using PayPal.
Oh, you're so yesterday. Get WITH it.
I'm not even sure that stickers are enough.
Add the sticker to the sniffer and get ....SNICKERS !!!
The NEWEST thing.
And to think I once had only a Dansco that I loved and cherished and that had some amazing coins just stuck in holes.
AAAAsaaaaaagggghhhhh.....
But I ....finally.... went to plastic from the Dansco.
The Sticker People...?
That sounds too yesterday-1950's Sc-Fi B film gone bad... Instead we need cutting edge suspense that will create and leave a lasting spell binding impact on the mind set of everyone
Coming to a Theatre and Coin Show near you...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
prices fluctuate is basically all you are saying.
there is price discovery, however.
It used to me a mortal sin to mention "The Company That Shall Not Be Named".
Lots of emotion in this thread. I think those who rely on the coin market for a living, those who are "investing", and pure collectors all see it differently. Most of us here are probably living some mix of all three to varying degrees.
I've always just thought that buying quality material for a price that sounds fair is the good long-term play. Grading fads will come and go, but quality coins will persist through the centuries. In top pops, true rarities, and thinly traded material establishing that "fair price" is difficult, but that can work to your advantage too.
For those that know me, it should come as no surprise that the CAC price is higher than the crossover price. I can grade my series with the best of them - I am quite comfortable putting my money where my mouth is in that arena. It's the subtle doctoring that I cannot detect.
Many coins that coins that collectors think are PQ are actually net graded by the experts. Those I can do without.
Indeed
>
The irony here, is that such a system basically existed before CAC. Maybe the pricing variation wasn't always this extreme but it has always been there. Let's take a look at something like a MS65 Seated Dollar. Let's go back to summer 2008 in the pre-CAC era at the high of the coin market:
NGC MS65 very low end coin/should probably be next grade down - $25K to $35K
Doesn't cross but is decent for an NGC 65 - $35K to $45K
Crosses as PCGS MS65 but is just minimally ok for the grade - $55K
Crosses at PCGS MS65 and is very solid for the grade - $65K
Crosses at PCGS MS65 and is very pq/high end/shot potential to the next grade down the road - $75K to $85K
It's the same market with the same nuances. In essence this covers a range of 64+ to 65+...a full grade....where a doubling of price would be quite typical....sometimes it's a triple or higher. Can't blame CAC, + signs, and stickers for everything.
Right on, roadrunner
For those that think this thread impaired their enjoyment of the hobby - just tread elsewhere. It doesn't have to do so if you choose not to let it
Our hobby has evolved in the past 50-60 years. I was an avid collector in the 1960's when I was still a teenager. As I recall BU was the ultimate grade. Grades in that era were only opinion, and at that time in my life BU was OK because I did not have the money to pursue rarities or perfect BU coins.
I find that we now value coins on the Sheldon Scale, with TPG grading on that scale, and that grading confirmed by a fourth party grader. This type of scrutinity is very well placed for coins that are $10,000 and up. But I think that it had created a drag on the hobby for "average collector" coins. I still buy RAW coins that I like, and many of them are imperfect. And when I need a difficult coin for my registry set, then I defer my grading experience to PCGS and CAC. And also to dealers that have great perspective as well. Expert help does not diminish your abilities as a collector that has a daytime job to support your passion.
But the price differential based upon TPG grade assignment as posited by TDN does exist, but I think mostly in the significant rarities market. And when we have to buy the BIG ONE to complete our collection, TDN's perspective is well shared.
OINK
The example I gave on the last page is not just for rarities or even 5 figure coins. It exists in the every day market for $1,000 coins and probably even $200 coins. Just watch GC auctions for MS65 common date Morgan dollars. They will range from $110 all the way up to $200 without any toning premium (ie white coins). Clearly, for a coin with a regular price of $125-$145, there is something "else" going on here. And that "else" is a grading/quality continuum (65--, 65-, 65, 65+, 65++). It's been around since the first major NERCG auction I attended in 1974. You don't have to believe it or even recognize it. But understand that others do and bid or buy accordingly. If it were otherwise, then EVERY PCGS/NGC MS65 1881-s would be worth $135 period. No variation.
Back in 1974 I couldn't figure out why really killer looking gem MS65 coins at auction were bringing 2X and 3X grey sheet with the dealers fighting among themselves to get them. What the &%$!? I was consistently blown out the water on those coins. Never could win any of them. But wasn't MS65 the highest grade on grey sheet? I didn't get it for a while. If finally hit me that while MS65 was the highest grade of that time....there were coins graded by the sharpest dealers as 65+, 65++.....the forerunners of our 66 and 67 grades of today. In one 1975 NERCG auction they started using the 65/70 grade to describe coins that were potentially a lot better than 65. Joel/Rettew and David Hall were doing that together in 1976 when grading Morgan dollars. Fine gradations in quality have been around for at least 40 yrs. Jim Halperin and Steve Ivy championed the idea of investor coins in the early 1970's. Blame them or give them credit for the mania to quality that has occurred.
That's the thing. The nuances were always there, the TPGs and CAC have just put them in more collectors' faces. But you can bet the guys at the top of the game saw these angles in the '40s, '70s, whenever. Quality gets top price and always has.
The difference seems to be that the price gap between great and just-barely-gradeable is widening into a chasm. I can't say if that's good or bad. I can only say that in my series, a PCGS AU58 coin may be worth $1100 on the low end and $2200 on the high end. And the $2200 coin will sell faster.
And, the $2200 coin will be CAC. But CAC is NOT what dictates that price. The coin dictates the price as it always has, and dictates CAC as well.
Well said scubafuel. I'm sure John J. Pittman and others decades before us understood the quality thing. Collectors get blind-sided by price guides where prices seem to only jump in steps. Completely bogus though in anything but generic/common coins that have active sight-unseen trading. The first time I ever went to major auction to bid on a monster gem seated rarity (March 1975) I got blown out the water. I was devastated. I also had no clue how to price such a coin. Redbook UNC price was $300. So I figured 3X that should secure a gem with room to spare. The coin sold for $1800 and I never even got my hand raised. That coin was a raving bargain at $1800 though at the time I didn't know it. 2 years later it sold for $5500 to Jim Halperin. I though he was nuts. 3 years after that it brought $30,000 in his April 1980 auction.
What I had gotten wrong was that the coin was well beyond the gem grade...and worthy of a big premium. I eventually got that coin but sure wish I had forked over the "lofty" $1800 back in 1975. The guy that paid $30,000 in 1980 got buried and sold out for $9K in 1986 (ie to me). Talk about hitting the market cycle at the wrong time. If he had held on for just 3 more years, the coin would have netted him $45,000 by 1989.... a profit. Yes, coin cycles. Buy at the wrong time for "big" coins and your chance of profiting can be delayed for a decade or more.