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Oh what a tangled web we weave...
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
....when we try to price coins these days. Here was my recent thought process on an NGC holdered coin I recently looked at:
As is basal value (doesn't cross or cac) $35k
Doesn't cross but cac's $50k
Crosses at 63 but won't cac $45k
Crosses at 63+ but won't cac $55k
Crosses and cac at 63 $65k
Crosses and cac at 63+ $80k
Whew!
3
Comments
Yup, the grading problem is "solved."
The fact that in your market a stickered NGC coin brings more than a PCGS unstickered, is not necessarily the case for all other coins 4 figures and up. The registry set demand and/or PCGS pops play a big role in that distinction. One item missing from your list, is if the coin is worth next grade down (62 pq money). That's a common assumption among NGC unstickered MS seated coins graded 63 and higher.
I would have guessed a factor of 2 difference from top to bottom, assuming N63 to start. Nonetheless, this is just another indicator that the market is tight. A solid 'B' coin won't do it anymore; now it has to look like it might have upgrade potential in the near future.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
What would you value the coin itself and not the plastic and stickers (including its current tomb)?
LOL, my webs usually weave something more like this...
I buy the coin as-is at 35k. No matter what holder or sticker it ends up in, the most anybody offers me is 30k
Given the price spreads you posted, I say send it in and hope for the best! Good luck.
"You Suck Award" - February, 2015
Discoverer of 1919 Mercury Dime DDO - FS-101
Seems buying coins is becoming more challenging than completing a 1040 form including schedules...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Are you confidant enough to crack and drop off at a show for grading? (Amazing color has always been my reason to say no to myself), otherwise, run with the big dogs!
Wouldn't it be nice to know if it was already seen and rejected by the sticker people? With a coin that valuable, I'd always assume it's been there and failed. Who would sell it without trying first?
I don't play in waters that deep, but I'd also be more comfortable paying a higher price with a sticker than a lower price without the sticker (especially if it's your money we're spending). At resale time, one coin is very liquid and one isn't.
A $45,000 swing, and it's the same coin,....wow!
Amazing what a little hype can do.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
Amazing what the range in quality of a certified coin at the same grade can be
Somehow, this thread doesn't seem to make coins sound like a fun hobby.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You need to get Turbotax.
Seems the OP is talking about plastic and beans more so than the coin!
But if you've seen the coin, you already know the quality. It's the plastic that's in play.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Which coins are we talking about? Gem type I or II $20 Libs.? Key date Morgan dollars in high grade? Proof high value silver and gold coins?
Analyst would call this a fluke. You just bought the wrong coins. The market is perfectly efficient in the the world of research.
Which basically means, it's a raw coin being judged on its own merits. At least in this case. The only truth is the "basal" value. Everything else is a "probability." Select your odds, pony up, and roll the dice.
Put the burden on the seller? See where the chips fall?
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
At those levels only the top-flight players are in the game. We basic collectors are left wondering what the #$@! just happened.
us error guys don't have to play those games ......
I've seen an image. And even if I had it in hand there are things done to coins that I cannot detect but Pcgs and JA can...
You're right. It doesn't sound fun at all. It makes the hobby sound ill, full of instability, and subject to systemic risk based on speculation of plastic and stickers. It makes sense that a certified coin and one with a CAC sticker would carry a nominal premium as a warranty over the base value (i.e. for the shiny metal disk itself); however, when we are talking 2x on a five figure coin in the same grading interval (e.g. MS63), that is not a sign of a healthy market. Threads like this are the reason I have dumped a lot of my holdings.
Totally silly!
Straw man argument.
"Totally silly!" Consider the source of this comment, it comes from a very outspoken CAC critic who chooses not to use CAC and has repeated said they will never use CAC.
I don't know what the premium should be but I strongly agree with TDN.
"Amazing what the range in quality of a certified coin at the same grade can be."
It's basic marketing nothing more and nothing less!
>
CAC worth more than a cross over?
50% jump for CAC?
I find those numbers very hard to believe. For the good of the hobby I hope your wrong. Folks are buying coins at huge premium based on stickers? I could see 15-20 % max premium but 50% that's just plain stupid
Really? The basal value includes all the possible things that can be done to a coin that I can't detect - in which case I wouldn't even want to own it and I'd wholesale it off at a loss. I also don't buy net graded c coins even if properly graded so I'd wholesale the crosses off too.
The CAC non cross premium includes the possibility of crossing down the road for added value.
Seems right to me
Actually, I find it fascinating...
Like many things it's about money and little else. We shouldn't expect it to be different should we?
I do too, in a perverse way. However, with 'C' coins in disfavor, and 'B' coins headed in that direction, what happens then? Are there enough 'A' coins to satisfy buyers (speculators) who push prices in hopes of snagging pieces that they hope will make an upgrade in 2-10 years? Some of those 'A' coins will end up being 'C' or 'B' coins at the next higher grade. Wash, repeat. There better be a reset button in a couple of decades.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
what is the coin really worth?
An average of what several people are willing to pay for it, taken over time.
That's not the way markets work. In fact, the coin is really worth different prices to different people, right now.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Not that hard to believe.
I would guess in this example that we're talking about a coin with a low pop and and every attribute added of holder, +grade, and CAC would effect the placement of where the the coin would rank, value wise compared to the other available coins.
Cut off a zero or two in price and you can find many examples of coins that have a 100% price difference between a low end coin in the grade and high end coin in the same grade. Especially if the next grade up is worth more than double the lower grade.
Sometimes going for a cross at 62+ with a CAC sticker yields a better result than a cross to 63 with no CAC.
I have groaned when PCGS was generous on a cross.
Sometimes PCGS crossing at the lower grade yielded me a CAC GOLD sticker which is even better!
OK, MrEureka...What's your answer to steveben's question - what is the coin really worth?
Your response to me above seems to imply that you think the coin is worth whatever someone is willing to pay right now.
How do you price your coins to sell? Do you think that an unusually high price paid by one person means that the coin is now worth that high price and can be resold at that level?
I would rather have a correctly graded coin.......rather than an under graded coin with a sticker.......any day!
Can you people hear yourself.......this is collecting STICKERS rather than COINS!!!
Slab grades and stickers are opinions. Sometimes opinions can be very expensive. The more opinions we get that affirm our own, the better we feel...human nature.
"I would rather have a correctly graded coin.......rather than an under graded coin with a sticker" "
However selling a perceived undergraded coin with a gold sticker often yields much greater financial rewards in that it yield two or THREE additional accurately graded couns in return!
.
What if it downgrades to 62 but then gets a gold sticker?
Crack it out and auction it raw.
Then you'll know what it's really worth
Actually you are not hearing the message correctly nor are you trying. Sticking your head in the sand won't help.
I wish it wasn't so but either but how else are you going to fight gradefatiion or monkied with coins? The crap weighs down the good. But I forget all you guys can grade and detect deception better then PCGS and JA/CAC. If TDN ain't sure I doubt few others could be. Keep telling yourselves you know better. That's part of the reason we are in this pickle to begin with. Doctor's and upgrade artists count on collectors and dealers being cocky. It's part of their business model. Geez. Wake the F up
Oh and Happy Valentine's Day
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Well, for better or worse, there goes the old mantra of "Buy the coin, not the holder."
Or buy the coin and get it in the right holder & correctly graded and vetted. Now more then ever.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
A coin is worth what the next guy will pay for it. Everyone sees coins, and value, a little differently, which is what makes the hobby interesting and fun. My father always told me not to worry when we had a coin in the case a little too long... He'd say, "someone will eventually come along and see what you see in it." He was right. Of course, I lost money on coins over the years and made money on more than I lost. When it comes to valuation, do your homework and believe in yourself.
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I meant what I said. There is no single correct value for a coin, even at the moment it sells.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Try explaining coin grading to a non-collector.
Most people can accept that rare and high grade coins are valuable, even if they think it's silly to spend $35,000 on a single coin. Most people get the concepts of authenticity, originality, and subjective grading.
Start talking about plus grades, A/B/C grades, CAC, crossovers and you will lose most everyone.
Although I am not in the business of selling coins, I am an observer, a researcher and a customer. While assigning precise figures to the variations noted by TDN is out of my province, I would completely agree with his conclusions regarding the options. Slabs and stickers matter when it comes to selling... and whether or not one likes it, one must face reality. Cheers, RickO
Interesting to say the least
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date