Market direction
CoinZip
Posts: 3,253 ✭✭✭
The first month of the new year is in the record books. Broken records in several different categories lead me to believe the coin industry is alive and well.
What's your opinion? Bulls, Bears or Bankruptcy ?
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Coins that appeal to and are collected by the wealthy will do reasonably well. This probably includes about 1% of the collectible coins available. Coins that appeal to the ordinary collector will continue to fall as more and more of these folks are pushed out of the market for economic reasons, medical costs, college expenses, etc.
I'll second that.
It amazes me how much $20 is, and how much a million dollars isn't.
I'll say it again. I would not pay a strong premium for anything unless I know I won't see another coin like it for a good five years or longer. Only pre 1835 material that I collect is the only material where prices continue to be strong.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Look at the chart of the PCGS 3000 over the past 45 years for potential future direction.
There's always going to be "broken records"......considering there are over 30 MILL slabbed coins out there. It only takes one. I'm more interested in what the lower 80% is doing to gauge market breadth. The top 5% is always doing well. Thing is, in 5 years from now, only 60-80% of the current top 5% will still be truly worthy.
There is no longer a coin market but a market of coins. Just like the stock market. It will be tougher to see appreciation as a market like the stock market was in the 80s and 90s as all you had to do was buy the better half of the Dow and returns averaged 15%. Those days are over but like stocks you have to own quality coins. Quality rare coins will always be in demand, especially as the global economy grows. Common coins are dead money were as the older U.S. coins in high grade and have a low pop will do well over the long haul. Someone correctly responded by saying the wealthy collectors will push the top end higher and demand for the rest of the coins stagnant. He also has a good focus, which in my opinion is critically important. I collect a few rare coins for this reason rather than numbers but I very much enjoy the hobby but do view purchasing a coin as an investment as well given the amount of money involved. I am not "one of those rich guys ". The internet enables the collector to obtain any coin except the very high end of the market whenever one wants to buy them. As a rule I try to obtain a coin that has more people looking for a good example than there are good examples to be had. The most recent coin I will ever own is a $20 1861 O that has not been heavily abraded. As far as what I intend to pursue over the next five years are double eagles (type one ) minted in new Orleans 59,60 and 61. I have no intention of owning the 1851 52 53 57 and 58 Os as I have traded these in on the tougher dates and have no regrets. Quality eighteenth century silver and gold will in my opinion do well over the long haul provided they are quality coins. In fact the early dollars in 35 and above appeal to me from a historical perspective as well as demand levels. This is a situation where the coin has to have eye appeal and as well as the price as there are enough to go around if grade is not a big issue. I like them all and enjoy the coins posted on this board.