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US Mint Mintage Limits...
BackroadJunkie
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Yet another outcome of the Oct 13 forum at the mint.
Mike Unser at coinnews.net was in a discussion group about mintage limits. The basic premise was:
How can we [the Mint] be more responsive and have the ability to include new customers? What are your thoughts and ideas regarding mintage limits, ordering via ‘Online/Call Center only’ or setting the appropriate Household Order Limit? How do we balance demand and mintage limits — for example, made to order vs fixed mintage limit?
The article is here. Nothing really that hasn't been discussed/complained about here, but interesting none-the-less.
Apparently he will be reporting follow-up information to the Mint, so if you want to chime in, post your suggestion there...
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Per the linked article: "The United States Mint wants to make and sell as many coins as the public will buy, but admits there have been misses in balancing demand and mintages and in setting household ordering limits."
The way to do that is to take non-refundable pre-sale orders on all items that the mint would normally place a limit on. Not gonna make collectors (or flippers) happy.
Governments can print currency. Only the people can print faith in it — and they’re running low on ink.
Why don't they just make what collectors want the 4 piece buffalo set in Silver and Gold even if they would of made the new Dime, Quarter and Half in silver it would of been a hit. But no they needed to make it in gold. Do they know some collectors just don't have that kind of budget for coins we need new collectors or YN and how can they get up $200 or $300 and now $600 for a gold coin, They kill the market and the new YN collector's as well they are very good at it. Maybe they need a group of collector that can tell them what they would like to see in the new mint product! some one that can look out of the box not some old fart that does not want to see any changes. I'm a old fart but I want new cool coins, Not all Commemoratives.
Hoard the keys.
For most products, I believe this is the biggest challenge. For example, lets say they raise the mintage by 10,000 units. Well, because of that, 15,000 people are no longer interested in purchasing it. On the other hand, if they lower the mintage by 10,000 units, now 20,000 more people are interested in purchasing it. In the first instance, they are left with a ton of leftover product and "overage costs". In the latter, they haven't fully met demand and they've lost sales, which means "underage costs". In addition to this, when they sell out they get complaints from customers who were unable to purchase the product.
I would argue that the best situation is for them to set mintage limits that will allow products to sell out. In these situations, they don't have the costs involved with producing goods that they don't sell and they don't have the costs of destroying/disposing of them. In these cases, the "lost sales" that occur are only a result of the product being low mintage in the first place (i.e., their sales are lost only to collectors/flippers that are solely interested in the product for its low mintage).
In order to reduce complaints from those who say they didn't have a chance at purchasing an item, they should offer pre-orders before the mintage limit is released. This way, even the collector who is actually interested in the item rather than the mintage has an opportunity to buy. This structure would be much more collector-friendly than flipper-friendly.
Alternatively, they could change some of their sourcing/production/assembly practices to make improvements.
The lead time when sourcing from overseas, as acknowledge in the article, is very prohibitive to reactive production and assembly. Lead time could be 1, 2, or more months in this situation. Having more reactive production (moving closer to make-to-order) would be easier to do, if packaging manufacturing was done on this continent. Not to mention, I think many US Mint customers would prefer that the packaging was produced in the USA.
My question is, why does the public need to know that a product is made-to-order? Set the mintage limit and household ordering limit as you would any other type of product. Reduce lead times by bringing your suppliers closer and assembling products closer to the Mint or distribution center. Use pre-orders to give all collectors an opportunity at purchasing a product they want. And use pre-order figures to improve forecasts. Use the improved forecasts, to change mintage figures and/or production to better match demand.
@GoldenEgg These comments are excellent and certainly worth posting to the Mint....
In order to reduce complaints from those who say they didn't have a chance at purchasing an item, they should offer pre-orders before the mintage limit is released. This way, even the collector who is actually interested in the item rather than the mintage has an opportunity to buy. This structure would be much more collector-friendly than flipper-friendly.
Set the mintage limit and household ordering limit as you would any other type of product. Reduce lead times by bringing your suppliers closer and assembling products closer to the Mint or distribution center. Use pre-orders to give all collectors an opportunity at purchasing a product they want. And use pre-order figures to improve forecasts. Use the improved forecasts, to change mintage figures and/or production to better match demand.
Cheers, RickO
I agree with the non-refundable pre-order option with one proviso: pre-order limit to ONE. This ONE would not be applied to order or HH limits yet to be set. It would assure collectors an opportunity to acquire an example. Flippers and dealers won't like it.
Good ideas above, buy my biggest issue hasn't been availability, it has been quality. Maybe I'm just unlucky but three of my last four purchases wouldn't have straight-graded (let alone graded at MS70) due to damage, poor QC, etc. If I really want something, I buy two or three, hoping to get one nice one.
I'm not really a Mint FanBoy though, and they only rarely have something that interests me. I generally despise things that are "made for collectors."
From a responsible citizen point of view, I'd encourage them to stick to making coins for commerce. Private mints could easily handle the rest.
GoldenEgg:
I like many of your suggestions but I adamantly do not like the suggestion to "change mintage limits." I am NOT a flipper. I buy many products directly from the mint and have sold none of them. But even so I think changing an announced mintage limit is effectively abrogating your implicit contract with buyers. Once announced, the mintage limit should remain fixed. At least, do not increase the announced limit if/when a product is determined to be in huge demand. Of course, if you are referring to the mint, say, privately reducing the quantity it actually strikes while standing ready to mint up to the announced limit, then I am fine with your suggestion.
The suggestion I really like is to allow pre-orders before the mintage limits are set. I hate when I can't buy my one unit from the mint because flippers and/or their friends have scooped everything up. Basically, if I want an item for my collection, I am relatively indifferent about the mintage so ordering in advance is (in my opinion) a great idea.
Yes - I agree. I should have been more clear. What I meant was that the Mint should, based on the pre-orders that they get before mintage limits are announced, re-evaluate their forecast. At which point they can make the final announcement. And at this point, if the mintage limits are low, let the flippers fight for them and let them fully sell out.
New label: "Pre ordered strike."
Governments can print currency. Only the people can print faith in it — and they’re running low on ink.