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Golden week

EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
OK, it seems that the drop in gold on Monday was due to the strength of the dollar against the Pound. The Pound dropped due to the realization that there is going to be a "Hard Brexit". The sharp drop of the Pound on Monday may have been precipitated by a "fat finger" trade. The Pound is now at its lowest value ever. I can see that stocks could be hurt by Brexit, except that the rising Dollar helps British stocks too.



Also China had their "Golden Week", where everybody goes on holiday at once. Is that an influence? Will they buy gold on Monday.



Where is the fundamental problem that should make gold stay lower or go lower? Is it overvalued right now? I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:

Comments

  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    I think most of it is the sell off of paper gold do to what you have said 2017 will be the year of the dollar and a good year for gold positioning. 2018 will be the start of the realization of where we are going to in the USA the main driver of metal prices is when the general public realize the are being screwed buy the government.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: EagleEye
    OK, it seems that the drop in gold on Monday was due to the strength of the dollar against the Pound. The Pound dropped due to the realization that there is going to be a "Hard Brexit". The sharp drop of the Pound on Monday may have been precipitated by a "fat finger" trade. The Pound is now at its lowest value ever. I can see that stocks could be hurt by Brexit, except that the rising Dollar helps British stocks too.

    Also China had their "Golden Week", where everybody goes on holiday at once. Is that an influence? Will they buy gold on Monday.

    Where is the fundamental problem that should make gold stay lower or go lower? Is it overvalued right now? I'd like to hear your thoughts.



    the possible fat finger was overnight thur-fri


  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    wow look at that bounce on the chart
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image

    image
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK, back to market predictions out of synch

    CME Fed Watch Page

    image

    note the change in probability down from 14.5% Thur to 8.3% Fri

    Economic numbers may hold the dollar's gains back and gold at least steady.

    $Bank Index 1 week chart

    image
  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    Looks like the fat finger made them millions.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: EagleEye

    Where is the fundamental problem that should make gold stay lower or go lower? Is it overvalued right now? I'd like to hear your thoughts.


    I think gold failed to rally above 127x and there is the possibility that the economy will get better enough to raise rates soon. Plus there is, at least temporarily, less fear of Deustche Bank failing. Plus, the us banking system may improve with higher rates.

    Now that it has sold off hard. It is a matter to see if it can hold these levels or the lower $1200 levels in the coming weeks.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I believe gold is fairly valued right about here, and will generally continue sideways.



    If it goes up above 1500 for any reason, I will sell some bullion. If it goes below 1000, I will buy some.



    In between, I will generally be sanguine, and perhaps make the occasional bland remark on various PM forums

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: MsMorrisine

    Originally posted by: EagleEye



    Where is the fundamental problem that should make gold stay lower or go lower? Is it overvalued right now? I'd like to hear your thoughts.




    I think gold failed to rally above 127x and there is the possibility that the economy will get better enough to raise rates soon. Plus there is, at least temporarily, less fear of Deustche Bank failing. Plus, the us banking system may improve with higher rates.



    Now that it has sold off hard. It is a matter to see if it can hold these levels or the lower $1200 levels in the coming weeks.





    I agree with you if we break the $1200 before the hike then we will test the $1000 mark

  • ChrisRxChrisRx Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭✭
    1000 sound good. I hope so.
    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,369 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold is now in a pattern seeking out a 4-6 month intermediate cycle low. The last one was on May 30th at exactly the 6th month point. And now at 4.25 months. The levels of oversold and sentiment are as low or lower than it was during 2015 when gold was in the range of $1046-$1200. Probably time for a bounce as China comes back from holiday next week. It might only be a temp reprieve before a final low is achieved later in the year....up to 0-8 weeks away. 50-50 pick 'em.



    Interesting that spot gold's daily candlestick body on the June Brexit day rally opened/closed at $1267-$1314. And last Tuesday's crash the open/close also covered the nearly identical range of $1268-$1311. A nearly perfect unwind of June's Brexit-mania. Probably just coincidence that this was accomplished with the Chinese markets on a 1 week holiday. image









    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Should be an interesting couple of months... and it will be also be fun to see if the election has any impact.... Cheers, RickO
  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 20,132 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I know, but I'm not gonna say.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk

    I know, but I'm not gonna say.




    come on lay it out, say it, say it
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk

    I know, but I'm not gonna say.




    Dude Knows the Future, of course ain't gonna say what it is image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 20,132 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Baley
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    I know, but I'm not gonna say.


    Dude Knows the Future, of course ain't gonna say what it is image


    Indeed. It can be easy to see things when we know what we're looking for.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    +12.70 as I type
  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    bounce
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 38,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    11.4% chance for Nov hike, 66.3% chance of at least a 25 bps hike in Nov

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