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What does Bowers mean ?
Gazes
Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
In coinworld, David Bowers has a column about gradeflation. One part of the article says "one reader told me he lost several hundred thousand dollars by buying most of the top graded certified 1909-S VDB cents years ago, because now many dozens of such coins are certified, many of them upgraded."
I have read this paragraph a few times and don't understand what he is alluding to. Any thoughts ? Thanks
I have read this paragraph a few times and don't understand what he is alluding to. Any thoughts ? Thanks
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I see where your confusion is. If the readers coins "upgraded", that wouldn't necessarily be a loss without something else happening.....
that was recently found !!!
I am not going to wade into the subject matter Bowers is taking a stance on BUT honestly the fact some random "reader" claims to of invested enough money that he has "lost several hundred thousand dollars" sounds like BS.
He may be referencing the "loss" much in terms of a loss of expected ROI when this "reader" bought the coins but because of gradeflation (in Bower's opinion) has stifled but even then it would mean some casual reader was buying and hoarding an insane level of 09s VDBs.
Latin American Collection
In reality he probably would have done better with slabbed world gold. The Mexico 50 Peso one of my favorites.
Thanks for the responses. One more thought. If the guy did buy a bunch of 1909-S VDB years ago---wouldn't he be in a good position to regrade his coins ?
Exactly. And if QDB's reader were still holding those same top quality coins that were at the top of the pack in 1987-1990, they would likely still be pretty high up in the pack today. So they would get regraded considerably higher...or even just gold beaned. Still, he would have a point that pops have swollen as the 30 year run of certification has brought many coins out of the wood work. Even if you still have top level coin, the overall rise would have been muted by the significant increase in pops. In particular, key dates like 1909s vdb's are still fairly available despite their key date status.
If you can successfully hoard something and price doesn't rise, or you keep finding more specimens, maybe it's not as rare as you thought. How did the guy do that hoarded 50+ examples of choice/gem 1909 vdb matte proofs? Or how about the guy who hoarded 500-600 "low mintage" 1844 Orphan Annie dimes? I could have told that guy back in 1975 that they were hoarding a fairly available seated coin.
Crack some of your Rattlers and send them into PCGS right now. It is not grade-flation, it is not grade-deflation, it is grade-destruction!
a couple of years ago when the grading room delivered several blue
boxes to a S. CA dealer, who's name remains forgotten. Inside those
boxes were a full roll of 1909-s vdb red cents. I was thrilled to see so
many top pops! He said they belonged to a customer of his and he was
just getting them graded for him......oh my.
Population of top dogs when up sky high that day.
bob
Every Auction has several listed.
As years go by the Pop's increase because these are not rare.
Every Auction has several listed.
Ironically, EBay and the internet have made once rare items (whether coins or anything else) more widely available and locatable. When one can find something with the click of the mouse that may only exist in someone's attic in a far distant state it becomes just as available as if it were at the corner drug store.
There are two issues here....buying top pop thinly graded coins in an era where TPG populations which are not yet mature, and gradeflation. Is this any different than the current modern coin market?
The reason modern markets are immature after all these years is all the disinformation out there and the perception that all moderns are common.
These coins have been getting graded for nearly twenty years now. Can you imagine people in 1995 saying it wasn't a good idea to collect 1909-S VDB cents because there was no way to know how many were out there? This would have applied to all coins. The process is merely taking longer for moderns because so many people hate them and consider them a drag on the market that holds back real coins like the subject of this thread!
Anyone who thinks all the old coins are already graded may be in for a rude awakening. Almost every old coin that has traded in the marketplace since 1986 has been graded but probably fewer than half of the rest (and of course the countless millions of old coins that aren't worth the grading fee). Where are all the '16-D dimes for instance?
Coin collections are long term. The thirty years coins have been graded are just starting to approach the average age of collections.
In coinworld, David Bowers has a column about gradeflation. One part of the article says "one reader told me he lost several hundred thousand dollars by buying most of the top graded certified 1909-S VDB cents years ago, because now many dozens of such coins are certified, many of them upgraded."
I have read this paragraph a few times and don't understand what he is alluding to. Any thoughts ? Thanks
If he was really buying at the top of the grading curve then relatively few of his coins would upgrade.
I've seen a few really high grade examples of this date and am surprised how rare the pops make these appear.
As years go by the Pop's increase because these are not rare.
Every Auction has several listed.
Ironically, EBay and the internet have made once rare items (whether coins or anything else) more widely available and locatable. When one can find something with the click of the mouse that may only exist in someone's attic in a far distant state it becomes just as available as if it were at the corner drug store.
+100
Wondercoin
edited to add ... perhaps even a better question for 100 years from now....
(1) MS67FB or (500)+ of the gold ones;
Cladking ... What would you rather have in 100 years ... one of the 264,000 1916-D silver Dimes or one of the 116,000 pure Gold ones from 2016?
Wondercoin
edited to add ... perhaps even a better question for 100 years from now....
(1) MS67FB or (500)+ of the gold ones;
Tough call.
Ask me in 80 years.
I know one thing though and that is in the long run quality and rarity will always win out in a collectible. Individuals series and coins pass in and out of favor but in the long run people like coins that are scarce, nice, and interesting. In the long run people will have a completely different perspective on what constitutes "interesting". This especially applies to those things we're too close to see in perspective.
What else is out there, just waiting? I love the possibilities.
Too bad someone lost money "investing" in top pop Lincoln cents, although I can't feel that sorry for them. Doesn't sound like they will go hungry or lose their home or anything real.
Cladking ... What would you rather have in 100 years ... one of the 264,000 1916-D silver Dimes or one of the 116,000 pure Gold ones from 2016?
Wondercoin
edited to add ... perhaps even a better question for 100 years from now....
(1) MS67FB or (500)+ of the gold ones;
Can I have the equivalent in $5 Liberty or $10 Liberty gold coins? Problem-free AU to MS-62 would be nice. I do not have 100 years left in me, but my grandchildren might.
He lost hundred's of thousands of dollars on the price drop because he stopped buying.
Self-inflicted wound.
Grading inflation is hard to notice on the 1909-S VDB since the populations are rather large. It is much more noticeable on lower population coins.