The search for VF-XF Seated "sleepers" (half dollar data added 8/12/16)
lordmarcovan
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So, I recently started a small and simple Seated Liberty denomination set in a Capital Plastics holder.
While thinking of strategies for that, I got to wondering what coins had lower mintages but weren't too much more expensive than common dates. In other words, "sleepers" of a sort.
Not key or semi-key coins, mind you- I'm a type collector- but I thought it might be interesting to add some of these slightly better dates where possible.
So I set out to find what they were, using two sources: the 2016 Red Book and the Numismedia FMV priceguide online.
Now, I know these numbers are not necessarily a reflection of the real world, but they're better than nothing, and should give some indication of good type coin dates to pick.
So I compiled some lists of all the dates that had less than a half a million pieces minted (500,000 or under), and which cataloged for less than twice the value of a common date type coin.
The result was a rather short list, but there were some.
None of this will be news to the specialists, and I don't know how useful any of it will be, but I had a quiet night with some time to kill so I played with it.
This stuff is mostly for my own reference and amusement, but I figured the everyman 7070 type collectors might like to see it, so I'll share it below.
I welcome any input or corrections. So far I've only gotten as far as the quarters, but I might continue with the halves later. (Not sure about the dollars.)
Coins with sub-500K mintages that catalog for less than 2x the price of a common date type coin are highlighted in green in the charts below.
While thinking of strategies for that, I got to wondering what coins had lower mintages but weren't too much more expensive than common dates. In other words, "sleepers" of a sort.
Not key or semi-key coins, mind you- I'm a type collector- but I thought it might be interesting to add some of these slightly better dates where possible.
So I set out to find what they were, using two sources: the 2016 Red Book and the Numismedia FMV priceguide online.
Now, I know these numbers are not necessarily a reflection of the real world, but they're better than nothing, and should give some indication of good type coin dates to pick.
So I compiled some lists of all the dates that had less than a half a million pieces minted (500,000 or under), and which cataloged for less than twice the value of a common date type coin.
The result was a rather short list, but there were some.
None of this will be news to the specialists, and I don't know how useful any of it will be, but I had a quiet night with some time to kill so I played with it.
This stuff is mostly for my own reference and amusement, but I figured the everyman 7070 type collectors might like to see it, so I'll share it below.
I welcome any input or corrections. So far I've only gotten as far as the quarters, but I might continue with the halves later. (Not sure about the dollars.)
Coins with sub-500K mintages that catalog for less than 2x the price of a common date type coin are highlighted in green in the charts below.
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Comments
I'm most familiar with the seated dimes and considering the mintage, you could also highlight the 1858-O, 1868-S, 1869, and the 1886-S.
Again, nice analysis and chart.
Nice analysis, good read on a Saturday morning.
I'm most familiar with the seated dimes and considering the mintage, you could also highlight the 1858-O, 1868-S, 1869, and the 1886-S.
Again, nice analysis and chart.
Thanks.
Yes, those seem to provide a pretty good value for the mintage, too.
But I only highlighted those with values less than double that of the common dates (as listed in the same reference).
The highlighted coins above are certainly not the only good values (if they are at all).
And I'm sure there'd be even more good stuff if I'd set the mintage limit at a million rather than a half million.
Looking ahead at the halves, it does appear as though there will be at least some affordable sleepers to highlight in green.
The dollars I might as well not bother with (or use a different mintage limit), since ALL Seated dollars with the exception of the 1860-O, 1871, and 1872 had mintages of less than half a million. Perhaps I can try a different threshold for those.
Random factoid (which you might've known but I didn't): published Capped Bust half mintages were generally higher than those for Seated halves. In fact, the only pre-1836 Bust half date with a mintage under 500K is the 1815/2. Of course that just takes into account the dates overall and not all the myriad subvarieties. And I know Bust half mintage figures probably have to be viewed with caution.
(Edited because autocorrect on my phone dislikes the word "mintage", and kept insisting on "montage".)
Enjoying it.
Last weekend, at a small auction, I had a chance to bid on an 1840-O No Drapery quarter....and didn't.
It was probably VG or F and wholesome.
Went very reasonable.
I lament over wasted opportunities like that.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
In your half dimes I'd say the 1869 could be a bit of a sleeper. But even at over 500K minted, I'd rather find nice VF/XF examples of 39-0, 40-0, 41-0, 50-0, and 51-0 half dimes. I might enlarge that list to include any pre-1857 "O" mint half dime. Their scarcity in unc should mean something in the XF/AU grades. In lower grades their large mintages do take over. I've never thought a lot about the 63-s half dime. It's hard to find "sleepers" in lower mintage S mints any more. Have never thought of the 1844 or 1859 half dimes as anything but type coins, despite mintage figures. The 1867-s half dime in VF should be highlighted as it's cheaper than the 1863-s. I've always 1867-s in all denominations as being underrated. It probably gets less attention than the Civil War dates.
In dimes I've always liked the 1848, and 1868 dimes. 1848 dimes in XF/AU/Unc have always intrigued me. Don't overlook the 1869 10c at a bit higher price but it's probably a lot tougher than the 1868. 1869 half dimes and dimes have often been over looked. In general 1848/1849 coinage in all the denominations is probably underrated.
I like the 1849, 1859-0 and 1860-0 quarters as well. The 1859-0 is considerably scarcer than the 1860-0. The 1848 is tougher than the 1849 so don't over look that one. Any "commoner" New Orleans mint quarters in nice original VF-AU orig/problem free condition are good bets. I'd consider any of them. Forget the high mintages....they weren't saved in huge quantities. The 44-0 and 43-0 have "real high" mintages, yet are very worthy coins in orig VF-XF. The 58-0 quarter has a mintage of over 500K so doesn't make your list (520K). It's a very worthy coin too and actually scarcer than many other dates with a lower mintage. It's certainly considerably scarcer than the 60-0 with a mintage of 388K. I guess that's saying even with the N.O. mint mintages being higher, they didn't survive so well, especially in unc where every date is quite challenging, despite up to millions minted.
The 1844 quarter doesn't strike me a better date. I consider the Philly run of 1843-1847 to be somewhat equivalent. There isn't enough variation in extant specimens to single any of them out, except in choice/gem unc. That said, any eye appealing, totally original, VF-AU specimen not far from type coin prices are good values. Like the O mints, those early P mints really aren't around in full unc condition. Most of them are sliders, missing luster, or played with. There are some better varieties too that you could cheery for no extra $$.
I'd probably adapt the same O mint philosophy to the dimes too where I've always like the 53-0 Arr and 58-0 dimes in VF+. Don't let the 1.1 MILL of the 53-0 dime scarce you. That coin is scarce as heck in solid VF and higher. It's not a sleeper any more as most date collectors know this. In the halves the 57-0 and 72-s are over that 500K limit and I like both those dates in XF/AU.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Nice data. Survival rates counts too.
In your half dimes I'd say the 1869 could be a bit of a sleeper. But even at over 500K minted, I'd rather find nice VF/XF examples of 39-0, 40-0, 41-0, 50-0, and 51-0 half dimes. I might enlarge that list to include any pre-1857 "O" mint half dime. Their scarcity in unc should mean something in the XF/AU grades. In lower grades their large mintages do take over. I've never thought a lot about the 63-s half dime. It's hard to find "sleepers" in lower mintage S mints any more. Have never thought of the 1844 or 1859 half dimes as anything but type coins, despite mintage figures. The 1867-s half dime in VF should be highlighted as it's cheaper than the 1863-s. I've always 1867-s in all denominations as being underrated. It probably gets less attention than the Civil War dates.
In dimes I've always liked the 1848, and 1868 dimes. 1848 dimes in XF/AU/Unc have always intrigued me. Don't overlook the 1869 10c at a bit higher price but it's probably a lot tougher than the 1868. 1869 half dimes and dimes have often been over looked. In general 1848/1849 coinage in all the denominations is probably underrated.
I like the 1849, 1859-0 and 1860-0 quarters as well. The 1859-0 is considerably scarcer than the 1860-0. The 1848 is tougher than the 1849 so don't over look that one. Any "commoner" New Orleans mint quarters in nice original VF-AU orig/problem free condition are good bets. I'd consider any of them. Forget the high mintages....they weren't saved in huge quantities. The 44-0 and 43-0 have "real high" mintages, yet are very worthy coins in orig VF-XF. The 58-0 quarter has a mintage of over 500K so doesn't make your list (520K). It's a very worthy coin too and actually scarcer than many other dates with a lower mintage. It's certainly considerably scarcer than the 60-0 with a mintage of 388K. I guess that's saying even with the N.O. mint mintages being higher, they didn't survive so well, especially in unc where every date is quite challenging, despite up to millions minted.
The 1844 quarter doesn't strike me a better date. I consider the Philly run of 1843-1847 to be somewhat equivalent. There isn't enough variation in extant specimens to single any of them out, except in choice/gem unc. That said, any eye appealing, totally original, VF-AU specimen not far from type coin prices are good values. Like the O mints, those early P mints really aren't around in full unc condition. Most of them are sliders, missing luster, or played with. There are some better varieties too that you could cheery for no extra $$.
I'd probably adapt the same O mint philosophy to the dimes too where I've always like the 53-0 Arr and 58-0 dimes in VF+. Don't let the 1.1 MILL of the 53-0 dime scarce you. That coin is scarce as heck in solid VF and higher. It's not a sleeper any more as most date collectors know this. In the halves the 57-0 and 72-s are over that 500K limit and I like both those dates in XF/AU.
Thanks. I was looking forward to this sort of specialist contribution. And you didn't laugh at my charts!
Just for the heck of it, I'll continue with my same arbitrary 500K and 2x type numbers for the halves, but I'm wondering what parameters to use for the dollars. I see there was a recent Seated dollar thread- I'll go look at it.
Let me add to the mix the 1850-O dime which, even though it had 510,000 mintage is still a sleeper in my book in xf.
Tom
Bump just because this was such a great thread.
mix the 1850-O dime which, even though it had 510,000 mintage is still a sleeper in my book in xf.
Yep, there are a lot of "just missed" coins that didn't quite make the cut due to my arbitrary limit of 500K mintage.
Since this thread seems to have been well received, I will continue with the halves and fix my minor glitches in the charts above. If anybody else spots any other errors, LMK.
Of course, I have discovered in eBay searches that just because some of these coins may catalog at seemingly modest prices, that doesn't necessarily mean they're available at those prices. But so it goes.
Since my first criterion for my small Seated type set is a certain look (the "crusty" grey "CircCam" look), I've gone with common dates so far. But I'll still be keeping an eye out for "sleepers"!
Though I've had fun compiling these lists and may keep an eye out for some of these potential "sleepers" in the future, I've decided to focus more on my desired crusty "CircCam" look and take what I can get in that for my small Seated set. This has so far meant more common dates.
Still, if any of you can get any use out of this data, or spin it some other way that is useful to you, have at it.
If anybody would like the (MS Word 2007) documents I saved these spreadsheets in, I'm more than happy to email 'em to you, and then you can edit them as you see fit. (The hyperlinks in the originals go to eBay searches, of course.)
I don't see any need to go into the dollars, since all but three dates of those fall under half a million mintage-wise, and there doesn't seem to be too much variation in values there aside from the rare stuff.
I disagree with the 1891. They are more available as a lot were kept because of this being the last year of issue.
Bob
I disagree with the 1891. They are more available as a lot were kept because of this being the last year of issue.
That probably does account for it being one of the very few With Motto pieces where the sub-500K mintage pieces list for less than double what a common date type coin does. These charts definitely do not take survival estimates (and a number of other things) into account.
Think of them more as a list of potential sleepers than confirmed sleepers.
There are all kinds of angles to look at this data from, and of course much "reading between the lines" to be done. This was only intended as a broad starting point, and a general pointer for browsing, since I was not totally familiar with the "lay of the land" in these series, having never collected them by date (obviously).
I disagree with the 1891. They are more available as a lot were kept because of this being the last year of issue.
That probably does account for it being one of the very few With Motto pieces where the sub-500K mintage pieces list for less than double what a common date type coin does. These charts definitely do not take survival estimates (and a number of other things) into account.
Think of them more as a list of potential sleepers than confirmed sleepers.
There are all kinds of angles to look at this data from, and of course much "reading between the lines" to be done. This was only intended as a broad starting point, and a general pointer for browsing, since I was not totally familiar with the "lay of the land" in these series, having never collected them by date (obviously).
Just my experience of over 40 years collecting this series. No reading between lines here-just my personal experience and observations. Believe me, the 1891 will never be a sleeper. It took me a long time to find acceptable coins for the 1860, 1862 and the 1851-O, among a host of others. The 1867 may be a good choice also. You can't go wrong with these dates at the prices listed. And I don't think that there are any hoards out there. But I have been wrong many times before. The 1841-O is also somewhat more available then the others. JMPE.
Bob