When will the rare coin market rebound?

EastonCollection · November 14, 2015 11:48PM

As Legend recently commented in their weekly newsletter, I truly believe the rare coin market will trend upwards in 1-3 years when all those big time collections get fully absorbed and those folks that have purchased those coins sell off their duplicates. Eye appealing coins and original coins should do well. Dog coins will always yield results.
Time is necessary to shake up this market with all the coins hitting the market within such a short period of time. Do you agree with the above and if so, then how long before we have a upwards market?

rhedden · November 14, 2015 11:55PM

I think that when coins start looking undervalued, the market will begin to rise in earnest. In other words, we will be waiting for a while. The coin market tends to leap forward suddenly, then stagnate for many years. My guess is that it may be 10 more years before we see another real bull market in coins. Until then, enjoy your buying opportunities.

bidask · November 15, 2015 12:01AM

When there is more demand and new collectors start collecting those eye appealing high end coins ......

And market maker dealers start raising their bids for such coins .......

The high end eye appealing coin market will recover ......

The opposite seems to be happening now.

roadrunner · November 15, 2015 12:01AM

The coin market will tend to mirror the US economy and at times the US stock market. When the US economy is booming again with obvious signs of inflation...then coins will be back. The concept of slabbing suggests an ever increasing population which is not so good against a steady (or declining) collector/investor base. The rare coin market got to piggy back on both the real estate boom (1955-2007) and the stock market boom (1976-2007 or 1976-201X depending on your point of view). Both of these cycles were well supported by baby boomers. A 40-60 yr repeat is probably not right around the corner. Some of the best rare coins increased 50X or more from 1975 to 2008. Are those kinds of gains sustainable?

Parts of the coin market peaked back in early 1980. A lot more of the market peaked in 1989-1990. More segments peaked on rise into 2006-2008. And still, a few very high end segments of the market have peaked yet higher into 2014-2015. What major parts of the coin market are still left to continue on? It's not a good thing that significant portions of the US coin market peaked over 16 years ago. Sure, small facets of the hobby could continue on higher as they have smaller collector bases that are much more easily grown. The top 1-3% of the US coin market could continue higher forever as there will always be demand for the best of the best for those with $Millions to spend.

I sort of agree with Rhedden. It could be another 10 years. Note that the time between coin market peaks and bottoms have been increasing (1980-1982, 1989-1996, 2008-20XX). Martin Armstrong does some interesting cycle work. He doesn't see the real estate market ending a consolidation period until 2033. That wouldn't be very supportive for 75-95% of the coin market. A booming coin market needs an influx of people, lots of discretionary income, rising "real" interest rates, commodities out performing other investments like stocks and bonds, etc. If we saw a 46 year coin cycle boom wrap up in 2008 (1962-2008 is as small as I can count it), how long will it take to consolidate that move? For Fibonacci followers 38.2% would be the first such time interval (ie 17.5 yrs or 2025).

bestday · November 15, 2015 12:21AM

Originally posted by: rhedden
I think that when coins start looking undervalued, the market will begin to rise in earnest. In other words, we will be waiting for a while. The coin market tends to leap forward suddenly, then stagnate for many years. My guess is that it may be 10 more years before we see another real bull market in coins. Until then, enjoy your buying opportunities.

Coins may take awhile to recover.. US entering the start of a recession.. Canada is in one .....Europe , with exception of England ,Germany near recession

roadrunner · November 15, 2015 12:30AM

Originally posted by: EastonCollection

As Legend recently commented in their weekly newsletter, I truly believe the rare coin market will trend upwards in 1-3 years when all those big time collections get fully absorbed and those folks that have purchased those coins sell off their duplicates. Eye appealing coins and original coins should do well. Dog coins will always yield results.

Time is necessary to shake up this market with all the coins hitting the market within such a short period of time. Do you agree with the above and if so, then how long before we have a upwards market?

1-3 years might work the coins that Legend places into the top 1% of collections. Then again, it might not. They leave out the fact that those "dog" coins lingering on the market have to go somewhere and be held by someone at a market price. That takes capital out of the market for better coins. Those coins just don't disappear....though they'd probably wish they would. The collectors that own those coins or once owned them may not be coming back, ever. How would you feel if a large percentage of your holdings were deemed currently unacceptable by the stickering authorities or that they have to be downgraded 1 pt to sell at all? How about the collectors that have yet to find this out?

There are lots of coins to still wade through. Assuming a bell curve, figure that 1/3 of any grade point represents lower end coins. That's one third of the slabbed coin market. But, the issue extends beyond that because some of those lower 1/3 for the grade coins don't even belong in that grade. That lower 1/3 taints everything around it, creating doubt for collectors. It's a challenge for sure. Even worse, I can only imagine a newbie collector starting off today being "instructed" by their dealer on the various TPG's, secure, +, *, CAC, rattlers, ogh's, no line fatties, holograms, counterfeit holders, bulk submissions, regrades/reconsideration/crossover, no grades/details/genuine, freshness, etc. that all must be taken into account to figure out what a coin is potentially worth. It just gets more complicated year to year.

If I were a newbie, my first question would be, why is there no minus sign?

MidLifeCrisis · November 15, 2015 12:49AM

How are you defining the rare coin market? Any characterization of the coin market is a broad generalization and cannot account for all sectors. At any given point, some coins are doing well, some are not.

So it is...so it was...so it will be.

To really gauge the state of the rare coin market in a useful manner, you have to be specific to sectors and types of coins so that you can cite examples. All else is just talk.

If you think the market for your sector is low, look at it as a buying opportunity. If you think it's high, then hold or sell.

roadrunner · November 15, 2015 1:05AM

I would gauge the rare coin market as a whole by the PCGS CU 3000 index and it's major 9 sub-parts. I wouldn't include circ 1958 wheat cents, 90% junk silver, 1939 VG Jefferson nickels, or many of the Home Shopping Network or Dept Store offerings as part of the "rare coin market." They are all part of the coin and bullion market. The OP asked about the return of the rare coin market. Considering ANY parts of the CU3000, are there any that are doing good? How many are not doing "good?"

2 of the 10 indexes show very tiny rebounds from mid-year. But all 10 are down over the past 1-2 years. If not for the key dates/rarities index, the CU3000 would look a lot worse since 1989. If one collects things like common circ type, or slightly better 19th and 20th century dates in circ to MS63 grades, chances are this index doesn't affect you much.

CU3000

EastonCollection · November 15, 2015 1:22AM

Wow - alot of very interesting analysis - I don't think its going to be another 10 years before coins get upwards trend as I believe that there are still a good number of collectors out there. What is missing is the good number of big time collections that are being sold off. Over time, the market will fully absorb these coins and new collectors entering the hobby.

Markets can change fairly rapidly so these buying opportunities probably won't last too long.

Nysoto · November 15, 2015 1:32AM

What is missing is the good number of big time collections that are being sold off. Over time, the market will fully absorb these coins and new collectors entering the hobby

For every winner of the big auctions there was an underbidder with a lot of money left on the table. The total wealth of the US is at an all time high, so there is plenty of money. The second sentence above is the key to drive demand, which drives prices - better marketing is needed to bring in new coin collectors.

metalmeister · November 15, 2015 1:37AM

Road runner nailed it. I might add, what ever I say do the opposite.

Cougar1978 · November 15, 2015 1:46AM

I gauge the coin market based on the metals prices: Gold, Silver, Platinum plus the PCGS 3000 and my take on the bids in the CDN.

I do not go on self serving marketing hype from individuals hawking their particular subset of coins / currency.

Currently the coin market seems to be struggling. The major factor seems to be an oversupply of material vs demand. Competititon from the USM is a huge factor. Based on my 11-11-15 tally, there are 303 K TPG graded items of Coins and Currency items on Ebay. Of these NGC / PMG totals 151 K or about 50%. Second largest is PCGS 127 K at 42%. The balance of items consist of ANACS 16 K, and ICG 9K. My tally only includes PCGS, NGC, ANACS, ICG.

In analyzing dealer pricing in CW and NN (sampling): CAC coins are priced at 1.21 Market Value (per CW, TPG pricing) and 1.46 CDN Bid. On Average (ranges can vary) Non Cac coins are priced at 1.05 Market Value (mainly CW Trends) and 1.26 CDN Bid. An extensive sample of Ebay auction results (liquidations) vs Market Value = 71% average (ranging from a low of 46% to a high of 93%).

My opinion of Currnet Market Conditions: Sellers in good financial shape are hanging in there at retail. My maximum bid (or offer) on numismatic material currently averages around 65% of market value. Sellers who paid too much or in forced sell situations will be taking a beating considering current market conditions. Coins are essentially a non performing asset (except for material one can retail from a website or ebay store)as contrasted to Financial Assets such as stocks and bonds. Numismatic investment requires setting a level at which one will sell to realize profit taking at high end of cycle vs just sitting on it. Numismatic investors should take responsibility on analyzing selling venues such as online store or taking a table at shows plus avoiding setting themselves for forced sell situations where they take significant losses.

EastonCollection · November 15, 2015 2:20AM

My maximum bid (or offer) on numismatic material currently averages around 65% of market value.

I only wish I could buy the coins that I desire at 65% of market value.

MidLifeCrisis · November 15, 2015 2:39AM

Originally posted by: roadrunner

I would gauge the rare coin market as a whole by the PCGS CU 3000 index and it's major 9 sub-parts.

That's my point. The CU 3000 Index and it's 9 sub-parts do not include colonial coins or foreign coins that circulated in early America so, while it works fine for you, it has no bearing on what I collect.

Unknown · November 15, 2015 2:50AM

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Walkerfan · November 15, 2015 2:55AM

Originally posted by: Realone

For the coins I want prices are and have remained high, for the coins I don't they are not. What else is new, maybe the dealer sees me coming and raises his prices

I believe that your first sentence is correct. I also believe that the market is polarized. High end coins that have absolute or conditional rarity (or BOTH) are doing well, whereas lower grade common stuff is floundering.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 2:55AM

Originally posted by: Nysoto

What is missing is the good number of big time collections that are being sold off. Over time, the market will fully absorb these coins and new collectors entering the hobby

For every winner of the big auctions there was an underbidder with a lot of money left on the table. The total wealth of the US is at an all time high, so there is plenty of money. The second sentence above is the key to drive demand, which drives prices - better marketing is needed to bring in new coin collectors.

The problem with the underbidder approach is that the market is becoming bifurcated in terms of value and demand. Because of this the underbidder funds may not be spent on non-spectacular coins. People are chasing fewer coins as the flight to quality continues.

Regarding total wealth, this is also being concentrated into fewer people and thus fewer collectors. So if those fewer people are on the sidelines, the overall market may continue to see weak demand.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 3:03AM

Originally posted by: Walkerfan

Originally posted by: Realone

For the coins I want prices are and have remained high, for the coins I don't they are not. What else is new, maybe the dealer sees me coming and raises his prices

I believe that your first sentence is correct. I also believe that the market is polarized. High end coins that have absolute or conditional rarity (or BOTH) are doing well, whereas lower grade common stuff is floundering.

We've seen this before in the stamp market. The good thing about coins is that there is intrinsic value for gold and silver so a strong bullion market helps.

oih82w8 · November 15, 2015 3:10AM

When I get done trying to sell of my extras, THEN the market will rebound.

I have taken a bath recently...and it wasn't even Saturday night.

jcping · November 15, 2015 3:32AM

Indeed, stamp market gives us a good lesson about when collector base is reducing, which market segments could survive and which market segments will fade away. It seems the filling the holes that I want everything market is fading and collections with story to tell are still hanging there. I don't think we need top 1% coins to make a collection with story but top 1% coins are easy to tell stories.

keyman64 · November 15, 2015 3:41AM

I'm still waiting for the market to tank since everything I want seems to get pushed to higher and higher levels. Oh well.

ctf_error_coins · November 15, 2015 3:55AM

Sometimes I look at coins as stocks and buy great stocks at heavy discounts ...... Hey stock traders, when do I start buying GPRO?

Elcontador · November 15, 2015 4:31AM

I can't speak for anyone else, but I see imo ridiculous prices being paid at auction for what I collect. I bought one coin and sold one coin this year. At this rate, I'll be on the sidelines. I see huge premiums paid for coins hoping they will upgrade, and imo too much for coins which should not be in the holder in which they were slabbed.

Unknown · November 15, 2015 4:42AM

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ctf_error_coins · November 15, 2015 4:55AM

I find the GPRO chart very interesting

The stock is being slammed for a variety of reasons, all being priced in or overdone.

The product is popular.

The competition will be enormous.

They could get crushed, bought out, or survive.

I am considering buying some shares before the years end because of tax loss selling. Most likely not as most of my money goes into coin inventory which I buy constantly and there are no wall street games.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 5:05AM

Originally posted by: Elcontador

I can't speak for anyone else, but I see imo ridiculous prices being paid at auction for what I collect. I bought one coin and sold one coin this year. At this rate, I'll be on the sidelines. I see huge premiums paid for coins hoping they will upgrade, and imo too much for coins which should not be in the holder in which they were slabbed.

Others have been observing this too. There have been several threads on auction prices vs. bourse floor prices. In certain areas like rarities at auction, there is no downturn, while in many others there is - thus the bifurcation.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 5:30AM

Originally posted by: MANOFCOINS

Wont recover until grade inflation stops. Low end and over graded coins are killing the prices for all coins. I see coins now that get 66+ that just a few short years ago would have garnered a ms 65 on a good day.

If that's the case, then the lower prices may be justified and the correct response. MS66+ prices should migrate to where MS65 used to be.

roadrunner · November 15, 2015 5:36AM

"Collectors," assuming there really are any by the strictest of definitions, don't typically drive the boom and bust cycles we've seen over the past 40 years. What is needed are dealers, speculators, and investors to step in to buy up the slack and then some. Until those guys are willing to step in, the collectors that remain aren't enough to keep the entire market elevated and levels we've been used to seeing over the past 10 years or so. When those speculators (for lack of a better term) start flipping back and forth among themselves again to start driving prices up, and attract the attention of collectors, not much is going to change.

I agree that a rebound in precious metals for a few years would certainly change the picture. The inflationary economy of 1960-2008 has been missing in action for a while. That was a boom period for collectibles, stocks, real estate, etc.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 5:42AM

Originally posted by: roadrunner

"Collectors," assuming there really are any by the strictest of definitions

Assuming that the strictest of definitions would include people that acquire but don't sell, then there are collectors that would fit the strictest of definitions, including forum members.

Originally posted by: roadrunner

What is needed are dealers, speculators, and investors to step in to buy up the slack and then some. Until those guys are willing to step in, the collectors that remain aren't enough to keep the entire market elevated and levels we've been used to seeing over the past 10 years or so. When those speculators (for lack of a better term) start flipping back and forth among themselves again to start driving prices up, and attract the attention of collectors, not much is going to change.

I agree that there needs to be broader participation than core collectors to drive prices up. With current trends, demographics aren't enough to drive prices up.

291fifth · November 15, 2015 6:55AM

The market is getting more and more selective. In order to do well you will have to be able to select the areas that the wealthy, avid collectors still want. I don't see any reason to expect a rebound in the market for "ordinary" coins any time in the near future, if ever.

Baley · November 15, 2015 7:22AM

Originally posted by: 291fifth

The market is getting more and more selective. In order to do well you will have to be able to select the areas that the wealthy, avid collectors still want. I don't see any reason to expect a rebound in the market for "ordinary" coins any time in the near future, if ever.

Agree, and similarly, replace "coins" in the above with "Stocks", "Real estate Properties", "Employees", or just about any other commodity. The market wants and rewards "special" and the market is just "meh" for "ordinary" or "average" asset quality. Poor quality is increasingly punished, because information to distinguish the ordinary from the extraordinary is more widely available, and the commodities therefore more liquid.. at the right price.

The problem is, lots of folks expect great prices for ok assets, and they're going to continue to be disappointed.

Justacommeman · November 15, 2015 7:35AM

Originally posted by: ErrorsOnCoins

I find the GPRO chart very interesting

The stock is being slammed for a variety of reasons, all being priced in or overdone.

The product is popular.

The competition will be enormous.

They could get crushed, bought out, or survive.

I am considering buying some shares before the years end because of tax loss selling. Most likely not as most of my money goes into coin inventory which I buy constantly and there are no wall street games.

GPRO will be bought buy someday one day. Perhaps even Apple. Twitter will also be taken out one day. Perhaps by Google

mark

ctf_error_coins · November 15, 2015 8:12AM

GPRO will be bought buy someday one day. Perhaps even Apple. Twitter will also be taken out one day. Perhaps by Google

mark

Perhaps, but rumors have it apple may produce a better product "in house" thus one of the reasons for the gopro fall.

Justacommeman · November 15, 2015 8:14AM

Originally posted by: ErrorsOnCoins

GPRO will be bought buy someday one day. Perhaps even Apple. Twitter will also be taken out one day. Perhaps by Google

mark

Perhaps, but rumors have it apple may produce a better product "in house" thus one of the reasons for the gopro fall.

I'm in very recently

mark

Sonorandesertrat · November 15, 2015 8:22AM

Originally posted by: Elcontador
I can't speak for anyone else, but I see imo ridiculous prices being paid at auction for what I collect. I bought one coin and sold one coin this year. At this rate, I'll be on the sidelines. I see huge premiums paid for coins hoping they will upgrade, and imo too much for coins which should not be in the holder in which they were slabbed.

EastonCollection · November 15, 2015 9:11AM

Based on the comments above, in order for the coin market to experience an upward trend, an increase in the metal markets will help. Investors will then purchase coins and then demand will outdo the supply. Easy math - I guess.

Unknown · November 15, 2015 9:19AM

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pennyannie · November 15, 2015 9:23AM

Put a fork in it, it is going to be stagnate or worse for the masses for a long time to come. I deal with the bottom end of the general population ( household income of under 75k) and they are not buying anything asset wise. They are into hi tech goodies and no money left for collectibles

I have decent disposable income and no idea where to put it now. I don't mind spending 1000 or more on coins or guns or whatever but I don't like the idea that my 1000 becomes 500 the next day if you are not careful and lucky

I set up at a gun show this weekend and it was dead in texas. I could have priced ar15's for 250, 1911's for 250 and everything at half the department stores prices and still had a hard time selling anything. Sold 10 guns over 2 days. I factor the time as the biggest culprit this weekend. Right before black Friday, crappy weather and the middle of the month

On the otherhand I was able to buy for cents on the dollar

joebb21 · November 15, 2015 12:24PM

I think there is a huge difference between the stamp and coin market. Coins in my opinion are very strongly connected to bullion while stamps had little attachment to anything else and slowly faded away.

Here is my view of the current market.

Coins had been rising very rapidly during the big market surges in 2005-2007 up until the bubble burst. In my opinion coins did not really start being affected majorly until the the late 2008-2010 period. While the Dow Jones dropped 60% through early 2009, many peoples savings and jobs were wiped along with that. Coin should have taken a huge hit then. Instead, gold started this large move in 2009 going from $1200 and ounce and rising for the next 2 years to $1900 in late 2011. This metal surge took all coins with it shooting up.

Generic gold jumped sky high. Junk silver was trading at record levels. With the lowest end of coins trading for so much money, better type stuff just flew though the roof and +'s in values were seen for every date and type coin on the greysheet. If not for the metals rising as much as they did the coin market would have taken a 30% hit from the 2005-2007 run up.

Since late 2012 gold has started a long and slow descent from the highs of $1900 and finally made it back to the 2009 levels of $1,000. Now the demand for Pm's are no longer carrying the rare coin market and it is now adjusting to the levels it should have been at. (down apx 10-30% and at the 2009 coin value levels)

I have been expecting this drop now since 2012 and am not surprised to see it finally happened. However, I believe the demand for nice attractive and fairly priced coins is still very strong and as long as dealers are willing to adjust to the new levels there should be business to be done.

I dont know where the market will drop to, but eventually certain coins are just going to become so cheap that a bottom will be found.

I know with all things the same I would love to put together a nice collection of early $5's for $100 a piece

roadrunner · November 15, 2015 1:04PM

Why? What does melt have to do with collectibles/rarities

Why? Because the bullion market dwarfs the US rare/non-rare coin market. It's far more diverse and encompasses the entire world. One reasonable estimate shows about $60 BILL (at least in paper contracts) are traded every day in the gold and silver markets. That doesn't happen in the rare coin markets. I would estimate that at least $1 BILL per day in physical bullion changes hands....far larger than the US rare coin market. A strong bullion market lifts the rare coin markets as all dealers and many speculators become much more flush with cash/cash equivalents. A lot of coin shops would have gone under in the August 2008 - March 2013 period if not for their trading in bullion. It's been mostly downhill since April 2013. It doesn't affect the rarities market (top 1%) near as much as it does 90% of the coin market. High end/top 1-5% of coin rarities, art, and other collectibles have continued to push higher....the very best is always the last to be affected, if at all.

MrEureka · November 15, 2015 2:45PM

As others have said, some things have been doing better than other things, and that will always be true.

But to answer the OP, the overall market will not turn upwards until the metals turn upwards. When that will happen is anyone's guess.

Zoins · November 15, 2015 3:09PM

Originally posted by: pennyannie

On the otherhand I was able to buy for cents on the dollar

Enjoy it while it lasts

leothelyon · November 15, 2015 3:27PM

If you're not 15 -25 years younger than what most dealers at 55 to 80, than it's likely you'll ever see another bull market is coins.--------

But.....we are 19 trillion in depth, in which something will eventually collapse and gold and coins should benefit, that is if it's not the USD dollar. People need buying power for stuff to go up.--------

And than we have all these baby boomers born from 1946 to 1964, selling all their stuff, flooding the market, at ridiculous low prices, mostly in estate sales. Dealers with ample supplies of 09-S-VDB's, 16-D's, 55 DDO's but yet not budgeting on prices?---------

These times might be good for becoming a dealer if they can get the keys and semi-keys at low/profiting prices. Don't buy collections without a few keys. Collectors......don't sell your keys and expect someone else to buy the rest of your junk collection.

Leo

nwcoast · November 15, 2015 3:33PM

Originally posted by: ErrorsOnCoins
Sometimes I look at coins as stocks and buy great stocks at heavy discounts ...... Hey stock traders, when do I start buying GPRO?

I too am long GPRO, at higher prices.
Currently, I think the chart looks bad. It's taken out recent support at about $24 and is in "falling knife mode".
Prior to that, it had taken out other key supports on the downside.
I don't think they're at any significant risk of being outdone by AAPL. Geez!!! AAPL could buy them with their chump change!
There's no telling where next support will be. If you've got a strong stomach and willing to average down, go for it....
I have faith in their products and their position of leadership in the action camera market.
The Polaroid think is laughable IMO! A box!!!! That could apply to almost anyone!!!
I think the sell off is overdone, yet market indicators and horrific events overseas will likely lead to more selling short term.
Just my 2 cents on the matter....
Usual disclaimers apply. Invest at your own risk with risk capital and don't blame me if it goes to zero ;-)

As for coins.
The low end PM related stuff will likely need a push in precious metal prices to go anywhere and the high end stuff will likely continue to dominate.
I am concerned of future collector base erosion and loss of confidence in the rare coin market due to increased sophistication of counterfeit issues polluting the market and eroding trust. PCGS has been making great strides in keeping one step ahead of them and are to be commended for that!

TopographicOceans · November 15, 2015 5:33PM

It will definately go up, the only trick is living long enough to benefit from it.
Gold will hit $2,000 oz too, but it may stay at $700 for a generation first.

keets · November 15, 2015 9:22PM

5-10 years.

mustangmanbob · November 15, 2015 11:25PM

So, who is going to collect stuff that has no meaning?

Effectively, what has circulated since 1964:

1 - 25 cents. Yes, a few .50's and an occasional $1.

But 99% of what circulates is 1 - 25 cents.

What meaningful items can I buy for 25 cents? What kid is in awe of a bright shiny new 25 coin? What kid will count and recount his/her coins waiting to buy that special something, and then, LIGHT BULB, realize that some coins are different, and hold onto them.

My kids, aging from 21 to 30 regard coins as something that gets in the way at checkout, by the old lady in front of them.

Debit Card = No coins

Fast food, gasoline, newspaper (what is that?) kiosk = debit or credit card.

Tolls : speed reader

About the only use for coins now is watching them spin around and around at those giant charity plastic domes where you drop a coin and watch it whirl around for 30 seconds til it finally drops.

Couple that will coinage in the billions, so nothing is "rare" except some strange defect IMHO, that can only be seen with a 20X and people go OOH AHH over a letter that is thicker on some coins that others.

So, for the thin upper crust, lusted after by increasingly older dudes, I see stability or maybe an increase, if the desire is to say I OWN THIS

Home Shopping network will grab the newbie money, and then the newbies, now understanding they have been burned, shun the entire hobby, and tell their friends, what losers.

State quarters had the opportunity to launch a new group of collectors, but taking 10 years, became tedious for a 10 year old, having to wait for the sophomore year in college to complete.

ASE had an opportunity, but other than the date changing (ignoring finish ?? what's that) are now relegated to the back drawer graduation gifts.

Many GEN_X are just not into collecting STUFF that sits in display cases, SDB, or shelves, needing periodic dusting.

I am dealing with the generational divide, clearing out my parents stuff. My mom is in senior living, and my dad passed away.

How many of these things do you see a rebound in THEIR market:

Hummels

English Antique Furniture

Cameras

LLADRO

China (5 different sets)

Crystal Candlesticks ( over 100)

Pressed glassware

Wedgewood

Waterford Crystal

Sterling Silver services

Fancy table Linens

Porcelain Statues

Encyclopedia sets (5 of them)

Old Books

Ivory Jewelry (from the Asian side of the family, all over 80 years old or more)

My wife and my brother's wife have a strict NO MORE STUFF policy, as both our homes have too much stuff already. My mom is still in yesteryear as to what this stuff is worth, so we have to be creative to get rid of it, as she has no more room for STUFF.

We are considering napalm, as that worked for me before.

The saddest and biggest is my dad's stamp collection. The SCOTT CATALOG VALUE (Screaming Font) was over $1 million. We will be lucky to get 15%. His English stamps (they lived in Europe for 15+ years) is off the charts, as he discovered over 50 varieties of stamps, but the following is so thin, that we do not even know where to begin to market it. The 2 biggest dealers that handled that type of material both passed away within a year of my dad's passing. The logistics of getting it back across the pond, import duties and declarations, since it was VAT exempt when it left, and just the idea of consigning it to an auction house and hope for the best is rather daunting.

cladking · November 15, 2015 11:42PM

Originally posted by: MrEureka

But to answer the OP, the overall market will not turn upwards until the metals turn upwards. When that will happen is anyone's guess.

I don't think this is necessarily true but we won't get a chance to find out because the metals will be going up soon taking the markets with them. It's not going to take all the markets with them and some of these will be weak as long as ten years.

TwoSides2aCoin · November 16, 2015 12:11AM

Life is a cycle. Just like the market. Have never dealt with rare coins, but have been supported by widgets in a coin shop since 2009. I have no qualifications to address such a question. Never dealt with rare coins. Known a few guys who have, though.

unclebob · November 16, 2015 1:42AM

Depending upon your definition of rare coins, IMHO this realm is pure speculation better left to a professional dealer, appraiser, grader. Enjoy the HOBBY for what it offers you as a COLLECTOR. I don't even consider real estate as an investment, only a necessary evil.

TwoSides2aCoin · November 16, 2015 1:57AM

Heard on the radio today that only 5% of people under the age of 35 (iirc) know how to change a tire. 90% of people over age 35 know how to.

They call that a "Lost Art".

So it is with the line of questions hitting the boards.

When will the rare coin market rebound?

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The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!

My Jefferson Nickel Collection

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