Is Vlad Guerrero Cooperstown bound?

Estil · February 11, 2014 3:26AM

<< 

<< Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career. >>

I do not know how ba would be affected by this and that is a thin excuse. No one was walked and pitched around more than Bonds and he still dominated* those categories*

from 2000 to 2007 Bonds BB was the highest in the league and he still 'roid raged it >>

Fixed for ya. As for the Twins/Puckett comparison, if you guys remembered I was very surprised he got in the HOF on the first ballot (HOF I could see, but first ballot???). Then I realized that not only did Kirby win two championships in five years (including his memorable 1991 Game 6 tater) but did so in about the lowest market team possible. No doubt that put Kirby way over the top (not that there was anything wrong with his career line mind you; it just didn't look like a first balloter).

Too bad Vlad didn't quite make the big stage. Came close in 1994, but we all know what happened that year...

Gemyanks10 · February 11, 2014 3:42AM

Thanks everyone for all the responses so far. I've learned a ton in this thread already, and I love debates like this. I mostly just read them on here, I never start them. I will be the first to admit, like a couple gentlemen posted, that I don't follow baseball as closely as I would like. Most of that is due to time constraints. Just a lot going on nowadays, but in any event, i've always known who Guerrero was and I've always known that he was very very good. I just didn't think he was " HOF worthy" good. It will be interesting for me to see what happens. His numbers are definitely nothing to shake a stick at, if he gets in great. Someone earlier posted who will be on the next ballot...do any of you think the HOF is becoming "watered down" so to speak? Lots of "borderline" players seem to be making the ballot, or have been on there for awhile, does anyone see the BBWAA just starting to accept certain guys for lack of talent to induct? No disrespect towards any certain player at all...but does an Ivan Rodriguez, Fred Mcgriff etc belong in the hall? Many people I've talked too say that the hall is becoming watered down in the respect.

P.s. "Ilovecards" I've seen you posting like crazy! Every thread haha. With your post count, you will be at "master collector" or "choose your own title" before you know it

Ilovecards · February 11, 2014 3:44AM

enough with the roids, everyone was on roids no one did what bonds did

Bonds was an amazing ball player one of the best ever with or without ped

and no one has ever stated Vlad was clean he is from that era, from the Dominican who's players are known to be ped users.

vlad still is on the border of being a good player but not elite.

Ilovecards · February 11, 2014 3:52AM

<< Thanks everyone for all the responses so far. I've learned a ton in this thread already, and I love debates like this. I mostly just read them on here, I never start them. I will be the first to admit, like a couple gentlemen posted, that I don't follow baseball as closely as I would like. Most of that is due to time constraints. Just a lot going on nowadays, but in any event, i've always known who Guerrero was and I've always known that he was very very good. I just didn't think he was " HOF worthy" good. It will be interesting for me to see what happens. His numbers are definitely nothing to shake a stick at, if he gets in great. Someone earlier posted who will be on the next ballot...do any of you think the HOF is becoming "watered down" so to speak? Lots of "borderline" players seem to be making the ballot, or have been on there for awhile, does anyone see the BBWAA just starting to accept certain guys for lack of talent to induct? No disrespect towards any certain player at all...but does an Ivan Rodriguez, Fred Mcgriff etc belong in the hall? Many people I've talked too say that the hall is becoming watered down in the respect.

P.s. "Ilovecards" I've seen you posting like crazy! Every thread haha. With your post count, you will be at "master collector" or "choose your own title" before you know it

>>

haha thanks

a spirited debate is always fun.....

I guess we all have different opinions on good just like psa graders do on cards.

But, yeah the league has been watered down since the expansion era. The emergences of other markets like Japan has helped bring in more talent into the pool though.

but to counter that there is also a sad loss of none Hispanic black players entering the league as much as they use to I think the percentage is down by half as there use to be.

NVbaseball · February 11, 2014 5:27AM

<< Compare the careers of Kirby Puckett and Vlad Guerrero, and then explain why Puckett is first ballot HOF'er and Vlad is not. >>

When Puckett was first on the ballot, there were only about three to four players with much of an argument for being better than Puckett. When Guerrero goes on the ballot there will be more than 10 players who could be seen as having better careers

Do you disagree with that explanation?

Tabe · February 11, 2014 6:41AM

<< 

<< Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career. >>

I do not know how ba would be affected by this and that is a thin excuse. No one was walked and pitched around more than Bonds and he still dominated those categories

from 2000 to 2007 Bonds BB was the highest in the league and he still murdered it >>

RBI is definitely a function of the team. Look at Bonds during his roiding years. 73 HRs and just 137 RBI. That's a great number in theory but with 73 HRs? Surprisingly low. Another year - 45 HRs, 90 RBI. Again, really low - the lowest all-time for a guy with 45 or more HRs.

It blows my mind that a guy - Vlad - who hit .318 for his career with 8 30+ HR seasons would have people saying he doesn't belong in the HOF. Yes, BA isn't the greatest measurement for a hitter, we know that. Still... a power hitter who hits for a very high average? Over 16 seasons? C'mon.

Ilovecards · February 11, 2014 6:46AM

lol I don't know in what universe 137 rbi in a single season ever be considered low . Ranked at 131 greatest single season record by the way

I don't think Bonds roided though... looks more like hgh kinda guy

Ilovecards · February 11, 2014 6:54AM

<< 

<< 

<< Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career. >>

I do not know how ba would be affected by this and that is a thin excuse. No one was walked and pitched around more than Bonds and he still dominated those categories

from 2000 to 2007 Bonds BB was the highest in the league and he still murdered it >>

Lol. You sir are a trollin' >>

how am I trolling? Because you don't like facts ?

Mickey71 · February 11, 2014 8:01AM

He hit .318 for his career and was a power hitter.....these are all facts.

What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me.

Tabe · February 11, 2014 10:12AM

<< lol I don't know in what universe 137 rbi in a single season ever be considered low . Ranked at 131 greatest single season record by the way >>

Context is important. I didn't say low, I said "surprisingly low" - for a guy with 73 HRs. When Sammy hit 66 HRs, he had 158 RBI. A couple years later, he had 160 RBI. McGwire had 147 RBI in his two biggest home run years. On a reasonably good offensive team, I'd expect a guy with 73 HRs to be up near 170 RBI, hence the "surprisingly low" comment.

<< I don't think Bonds roided though... looks more like hgh kinda guy >>

I was using "roiding" as a catch-all term for "using PEDs". I agree, he looks like an HGH guy to me, as well.

JoeBanzai · February 11, 2014 10:23AM

Pucket was a great hitter for BA, he averaged 209 hits a season. He was also SUPER popular and charismatic Rarely missed any games, but did not walk a lot or hit for much power 19 hrs per season, 124 OPS+.

Vlad was a complete player similar to Walker, but with no Coors field advantage and a 140 OPS+. Very, very rare for a player to have a .318 lifetime BA to go along with 449 HRs. 8155 at bats, so he played long enough as well.

Absolutely belongs in HOF.

Cokin75 · February 11, 2014 12:15PM

I actually see a lot of similarities between Vlad and Andre Dawson, and they go further than the Expos and bad knees. Both were power hitting free swingers with good speed and a cannon in the field. Both missed the big milestones largely due to injury. Andre was probably a better fielder and stole more bases, but Vlad had a big edge in batting average/OBP. If you normalize their stats a bit based on the era in which they had their primes, I'd guess that the overall numbers would be even closer. In my view, Dawson is rightfully in the HOF, and Vlad should be as well.

vladguerrero · February 11, 2014 3:53PM

<< Too bad Vlad didn't quite make the big stage. Came close in 1994, but we all know what happened that year...

>>

I'll assume this was serious, Vlad wasn't with the Expos in 1994. And he played in the WS in 2010 with the Rangers... his second last season, in which he hit .300 and 29 Home runs... won the Silver Slugger Award for DH, was an All Star, and finished 11th in MVP voting.

bobbybakeriv · February 11, 2014 3:58PM

If Piazza isn't in...Vlad shouldn't be either. Piazza is the greatest hitting catcher ever and deserves to be in the HOF. Just my two cents.

grote15 · February 11, 2014 4:17PM

<< If Piazza isn't in...Vlad shouldn't be either. Piazza is the greatest hitting catcher ever and deserves to be in the HOF. Just my two cents. >>

+1

fiveniner · February 11, 2014 8:05PM

long shot.

NVbaseball · February 12, 2014 12:24AM

<< What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me. >>

We're comparing him to Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz, Walker, Martinez, Edmonds, et cetera. No way he is at the very top of that list

swartz1 · February 12, 2014 1:40AM

<< 

<< What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me. >>

We're comparing him to Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz, Walker, Martinez, Edmonds, et cetera. No way he is at the very top of that list >>

+1

Maybe Albert Belle can give him a ride and they pay for tickets together...

SOM · February 12, 2014 2:42AM

<< Are batting average and RBI stats still important? >>

Not to the sabermetric crowd, they're not

JoeBanzai · February 12, 2014 3:08AM

<< 

<< Are batting average and RBI stats still important? >>

Not to the sabermetric crowd, they're not >>

I can see a slightly diminished importance put on BA and RBI, but the fact remains that when comparing elite players, these are still very good things to look at. Certainly not as important as they once were, but especially BA is a good indicator.

RBI might be a different "animal" but players ( who batted 3rd or 4th in the lineup) who drove in say 100 a year nearly every year proved they were good at it as they probably had varying opportunities and still were able to do the job.

Maybe there should be a new stat to show what percentage of runners were driven in? I wonder how the intentional walk would work here.

3BoyzTrading · February 12, 2014 3:11AM

<< 

<< What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me. >>

We're comparing him to Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz, Walker, Martinez, Edmonds, et cetera. No way he is at the very top of that list >>

I would take him over everyone on that list if I were starting a franchise......Thome and Biggio had very long careers to reach their milestone number......he was superior to Bagwell offensively and defensively.....Piazza and Raines would be the closest...

Estil · February 12, 2014 3:55AM

<< 

<< Too bad Vlad didn't quite make the big stage. Came close in 1994, but we all know what happened that year...

>>

I'll assume this was serious, Vlad wasn't with the Expos in 1994. And he played in the WS in 2010 with the Rangers... his second last season, in which he hit .300 and 29 Home runs... won the Silver Slugger Award for DH, was an All Star, and finished 11th in MVP voting. >>

Oops...I stand corrected. Nobody's perfect you know.

PSASAP · February 12, 2014 4:20AM

Comparing Vlad to Jim Edmonds? Too funny! :-)

cardsnbeads · February 12, 2014 4:29AM

Vladimir Guerrero is not a hall of famer . Look at Larry Walker , he has a high average a lot of home runs, 1 MVP, and he is in the 10-20% range in hall of fame voting.

PSASAP · February 12, 2014 5:46AM

You're ignoring the Coors Field factor. Walker put up average numbers in Montreal, unremarkable except for his .322 ba in 1994. It was in Colorado where his career took off. However, he was not able to be productive on a consistent basis; injuries prevented him from putting together back to back seasons of big numbers, with the possible exception of 2001-02. What I found surprising is that in his best year, 1997, he actually hit better on the road than he did at home. That was an aberration, because in every other season with the Rockies, he hit much better at home. Compare that to Vlad's career with the Expos.

Tabe · February 12, 2014 7:06AM

<< 

<< 

<< What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me. >>

We're comparing him to Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz, Walker, Martinez, Edmonds, et cetera. No way he is at the very top of that list >>

I would take him over everyone on that list if I were starting a franchise......Thome and Biggio had very long careers to reach their milestone number......he was superior to Bagwell offensively and defensively.....Piazza and Raines would be the closest... >>

Ditto.

Then again, I think Albert Belle is a HOF'er.

msassin · February 12, 2014 8:09AM

<< 

<< 

<< What discussion are we even having? We're not comparing him to Ted Williams, Ruth or Gehrig. He should get in....very good overall #'s, MVP and WS title- sounds good to me. >>

We're comparing him to Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, Raines, Schilling, Smoltz, Walker, Martinez, Edmonds, et cetera. No way he is at the very top of that list >>

<< 

He is pretty close to the top of that list in my opinion, and the ones at the top are HOF bound (Thome, Biggio, Piazza)

telephoto1 · February 13, 2014 5:04AM

I was kind of on the fence on Vlad. In the final analysis I just don't see him making it. Solid guy, solid career, but not HOF worthy imo.

Skin2 · February 13, 2014 5:44AM

<< 

<< 

<< Are batting average and RBI stats still important? >>

Not to the sabermetric crowd, they're not >>

I can see a slightly diminished importance put on BA and RBI, but the fact remains that when comparing elite players, these are still very good things to look at. Certainly not as important as they once were, but especially BA is a good indicator.

RBI might be a different "animal" but players ( who batted 3rd or 4th in the lineup) who drove in say 100 a year nearly every year proved they were good at it as they probably had varying opportunities and still were able to do the job.

Maybe there should be a new stat to show what percentage of runners were driven in? I wonder how the intentional walk would work here. >>

Elias Analyst posted all those percentage of runners driven in stats back in the early 80's.

With the play by play information at our finger tips, RBI truly are obsolete. If you like RBI, then Win Probability Added tells you everything RBI tries to, and tells it more precisely and 100 times better....including the impact of making an out and leaving the guy at second, compared to the impact of any other offensive event in that situation(and all other situations).

The value of a single with a man on 2nd and 3rd, the value of making an out in the situation, etc... It is all based on the actual play by play results of EVERY play in Major League Baseball from 1945 to now(a handful of games are missing in those early years).

Base Outs does the same thing.

Tabe · February 13, 2014 8:33AM

<< I was kind of on the fence on Vlad. In the final analysis I just don't see him making it. Solid guy, solid career, but not HOF worthy imo. >>

I'm curious what you see as the knock on him. Career .318 average, 440+ HRs, OPS+ of 140 - these are all elite numbers. 100+ RBI ten times. Nearly a 40/40 season. And so on. Only three guys in the last 50 years have hit .310 or higher with 440+ HRs - Vlad, Manny & Pujols. The other two were/are better than him but saying Vlad's career was "solid" is really underselling him. He was an absolutely elite player, especially during his time in Montreal.

telephoto1 · February 14, 2014 6:31AM

<< 

<< I was kind of on the fence on Vlad. In the final analysis I just don't see him making it. Solid guy, solid career, but not HOF worthy imo. >>

I'm curious what you see as the knock on him. Career .318 average, 440+ HRs, OPS+ of 140 - these are all elite numbers. 100+ RBI ten times. Nearly a 40/40 season. And so on. Only three guys in the last 50 years have hit .310 or higher with 440+ HRs - Vlad, Manny & Pujols. The other two were/are better than him but saying Vlad's career was "solid" is really underselling him. He was an absolutely elite player, especially during his time in Montreal. >>

I don't really know that it's a knock per se. Like I said, I was on the fence. The numbers suggest he should have a good shot, but it's like there's something lacking. He was good-no question- perhaps elite, but not breaking the 500 HR or 3000 hit plateau- things that would have helped to counteract the PED-era stigma-will likely cause him to fall short imo.

Estil · February 14, 2014 12:14PM

I'd say his best chance is his .318 average and to a lesser extent his just under 1500 RBI's (#53rd all time; pretty good but there are a few eligibles above him not in the HOF). I'm not sure about his 8x Silver Sluggers (sounds impressive but not an award that gets that much attention). Trouble is, his hits and HR's are only on the bubble at best. So overall I'd say he's on the low end bubble.

jmmiller777 · February 14, 2014 1:29PM

Ya, he will get in.

Albertdidit · February 15, 2014 4:07AM

Somethng I thought interesting to note is if he doesnt get in is he would have almost the highest batting average in the history of the game for all retired players that started from 1900 and on not the be elected to the HOF (Joe Jackson of course would have been in)

The other 4 guys had more of a shorter carrer to get in unless maybe they had unreal stats

Riggs Stephenson, Bob Fothergill, Ken Williams(Less than 5,000 at bats)
Babe Herman (a little above 5,000 at bats)

Combine the high average with the impressive power numbers and an amazing arm i dont think you can keep him out

JoeBanzai · February 15, 2014 4:22AM

He also stole as many as 40 bases in a season, he got caught a lot, but he had speed as well.

Vlad's only "weakness" was that he didn't walk much, if he would have his OPS+ would be even higher!

PSASAP · February 15, 2014 5:55AM

Hence the adage "You don't walk off the island."

PSASAP · July 4, 2015 4:17PM

Great article from deadspin.com:

link fo article

skrezyna23 · July 4, 2015 5:28PM

<< I'm not sure if this is appropriate for the sports cards and memorabilia section >>

Right Section Police - "Since this is talking about sports and has nothing to do with baseball cards or sports memorabilia, this would fall under Sports Talk."

That being said, I think he will get in eventually.

JoeBanzai · July 5, 2015 3:04AM

Players in MLB with 449 HR and above .300 BA;

Aaron
Ruth
Mays
Pujols
Foxx
F. Thomas
T. Williams
Ott
Gehrig
Musial
C. Jones
and a couple of steroid users.

Batting average is a VERY valuable statistic when combined with power. Vlad is 24th all time in SLG% and 30th in OPS with the steroid users included.

It's been said he wasn't dominant. Eliminate the juicers and Vlad might get a couple three more MVP's in 2002, 2005, 2007 he could have won, or at least been 2nd.

AND he never played for the Colorado Rockies!!!!!!!

timpatg · July 5, 2015 3:37AM

I know it's an old thread and I didn't read through it or the linked article, but if he had been drafted by let's say the Yankess and got to start his career and play his entire career on grass instead of concrete, this wouldn't have even been a discussion.

Still can't believe no one gave him another 2-3 years as a DH. Although the HR numbers were down his last few years, he was still getting hits, still making consistent contact and still rarely striking out. How many guys known as sluggers have a full career and never strikeout 100 times in a season?

JoeBanzai · July 5, 2015 8:44AM

<< I know it's an old thread and I didn't read through it or the linked article, but if he had been drafted by let's say the Yankess and got to start his career and play his entire career on grass instead of concrete, this wouldn't have even been a discussion.

Still can't believe no one gave him another 2-3 years as a DH. Although the HR numbers were down his last few years, he was still getting hits, still making consistent contact and still rarely striking out. How many guys known as sluggers have a full career and never strikeout 100 times in a season? >>

Really shouldn't be a discussion. He was a complete player and has all the requirements to be in HOF. In fact better than MANY already in. No "watering down" by putting Vlad in.

SultanOfSwat · July 5, 2015 9:10AM

Career .300 hitters with 400+ homeruns are a rare and special breed. Vlad was one of them. One way or the other, I believe he will be a Hall Of Famer in the future.

yankeesman · July 5, 2015 10:08AM

<< 

<< I'm not sure if this is appropriate for the sports cards and memorabilia section >>

Right Section Police - "Since this is talking about sports and has nothing to do with baseball cards or sports memorabilia, this would fall under Sports Talk."

That being said, I think he will get in eventually. >>

I have a Vlad Guerrero baseball card somewhere. Resume discussion. And yes I think he's in.

cardsnbeads · July 5, 2015 11:05AM

Vladimir Guerrero has no milestone numbers , no championships, 1 MVP . Solid batting average . Same boat as Todd Helton , Larry Walker, and Edgar Martinez . Walker and Martinez are no even close to the Hall . If Piazza and Bagwell aren't in yet. It could be tough for Vlad . The .318 Average is certainly worthy . Larry Walker has a .313 and a couple batting titles . Vlad never led the league in Home Runs or Batting Average . Borderline at best, could get in , it but it would take like 10 tries . I'd put someone like Jeff Kent in before I put Guerrero .

grote15 · July 5, 2015 11:23AM

<< Vladimir Guerrero has no milestone numbers , no championships, 1 MVP . Solid batting average . Same boat as Todd Helton , Larry Walker, and Edgar Martinez . Walker and Martinez are no even close to the Hall . If Piazza and Bagwell aren't in yet. It could be tough for Vlad . The .318 Average is certainly worthy . Larry Walker has a .313 and a couple batting titles . Vlad never led the league in Home Runs or Batting Average . Borderline at best, could get in , it but it would take like 10 tries . I'd put someone like Jeff Kent in before I put Guerrero . >>

Agree with this assessment. I don't see him getting in and cerainly not as an OF before Piazza gets in as a C. Impressive career, but not head and shoulders above his peers at his position, never higher than 4th in WAR, or 2nd in OPS+ (ranked 77th for his career), and he played in a live ball, juiced era. If he does get in, it will take a while.

jackstraw · July 5, 2015 11:26AM

I think he is in first or second shot! I am sure Piazza will get in but not completely sure about Bagwell but I would take Vlad
Over both in a heartbeat!

shagrotn77 · July 5, 2015 12:25PM

As I stated earlier in this thread, it's laughable that this is even being discussed. Vlad will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

hammered · July 5, 2015 12:30PM

I think he will get in but it's not a slam dunk. It might take him awhile. The fact he played in Montreal might hurt him, and the language barrier might also hurt a bit.
He should be helped by the fact that the most prominent players in his eligibility class (I. Rodriguez and M. Ramirez, among others) are linked heavily to PEDs.

lahmejoon · July 5, 2015 12:46PM

Let's get back to discussing Billy Wagner. Lol

grote15 · July 5, 2015 12:48PM

<< Let's get back to discussing Billy Wagner. Lol >>

Slam dunk HOFer!!

Is Vlad Guerrero Cooperstown bound?

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