The declining case of promoted Key dates

crypto79 · December 30, 2014 12:59PM

It's no secret that many not so rare "key dates" are declining as the Internet has opened access to information and markets allowing the public to know how not rare many of these are such as low grade 1916d dimes, 38d halves, 32s quarters and many more. That doesn't mean the aren't still kind of cool, post some of your fav classic dates and why they were considered key dates.

My example is the 38d from my complete walker set. I always loved this date as a kid due to the low Mintage that just stuck out in the red book as I flipped through its pages as a youth. Prices were always strong as it the late date key for the short set of one of the best American designs.

Unknown · December 30, 2014 1:01PM

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DMWJR · December 30, 2014 2:04PM

09Svdb and 14-d before the maturation of the market and all could see that you can buy one in almost any grade at any time.

cecropiamoth · December 30, 2014 2:08PM

Nice high grade circulated 38-D Walker there. Nice presentation showing the old green tag holder too.

Jeff

Walkerguy21D · December 30, 2014 10:25PM

Lower grade circ 38D walkers are very common - seems most of these were saved from the melt buckets.
Many were also saved at the time of issue - the low mintage and roll hoarding craze made it a good candidate to
'put away'.
But it's a tougher coin to find in nice AU. I recall attending shows (pre-internet) and seeing multiple 63/64/65 coins
on the bourse, but no choice AU's.

Type2 · December 31, 2014 1:06AM

Like you are saying the very common G/VG/VF/EF can be found. But find one in high Au, Unc now your talking about a tuffer coin.

kaz · December 31, 2014 5:43AM

DeepCoin · December 31, 2014 6:05AM

I think one of the things that is changing is that many key dates were saved and are abundant, i.e. 1916-D dimes. Yet many other dates are harder to find, particularly in higher grades as fewer were saved. That said, the "key" dates from long ago receive marketing via this status and will probably always remain pricy, even though you can find all the 1909-S VDB Lincolns you want in virtually any grade.

Overdate · December 31, 2014 11:05AM

The 20th century key dates are declining in value and collector interest partly because of competition from 21st century key dates with much lower mintages.

nwcoast · December 31, 2014 11:45AM

Here's one I picked up raw, out of a Whitman folder housed collection.

Pretty common, though still fairly expensive- in comparison to the Key Washington Quarters, in my humble understanding of it.

coinkat · December 31, 2014 11:51AM

Its not just about mintage, but the surviving population in various grades.

crypto79 · January 1, 2015 2:04AM

<< Its not just about mintage, but the surviving population in various grades. >>

I almost think the key date premises is a manifestation of the folder era of our hobby and was propagated by dealers back when they were the only option most collectors knew about. Coupled with even the culls are saved, one ends up with just too many of a "rare" issue

BillJones · January 1, 2015 2:09AM

I agree that the "penny board," penny folder and album promotions that have been around since the 1930s have pushed up the value of the "key dates." Over past decade and a half they have pushed up further by speculators who bought them as investments because "those pieces were the only coins worth collecting or owning." The result has been that the prices for many of these coins have been pushed up to excessive levels in my opinion. If you want to talk about rare there are many 19th century issues that are far scarcer than many of these "key dates." I think that the bubble will bust on these coins eventually.

coinkat · January 1, 2015 2:16AM

The 1921-s WLH in this thread is rare... very few survived that look this attractive in this grade. There are other coins in certain grades that some may not consider a key date or rare until they go out looking for them.

I see this differently- collectors have become a little more sophisticated. Key dates are basically going to be re-defined based on condition rarity as well.

I agree that a G4 1916-D Merc is not really rare, however, that changes in a higher grade mainly due to the significantly lower surviving population.

Walkerguy21D · January 1, 2015 2:25AM

<< I see this differently- collectors have become a little more sophisticated. Key dates are basically going to be re-defined based on condition rarity as well. >>

I agree, but I also think it's been that way for a while...for example the 21S walker has been known as the "King" of the series in MS for many
decades, with a commensurate price tag. It's coin that's dirt common and cheap in VG-VF, pretty scarce in XF, commanding ~$4k, and downright rare in AU and Unc.

DennisH · January 1, 2015 3:14AM

To illustrate how readily available the 1938-D is in VG to VF grades: A box of 20 PCGS-certified examples is being sold as a lot in the Heritage FUN auction next week in Florida.

19Lyds · January 1, 2015 3:25AM

Aren't these coins the "backbone" of coin collecting? The ultimate goal if you will for the average collector?

I like the term "promoted Key Dates" since it reflects exactly what they are which subliminally tells the collector that their collection isn't complete (meaning worth a dang) until they own one of these coins. This promoted "sense" is what holds collectors and feeds the coffers.

BUT, this is true with ANY hobby where one accumulates something.

TwoSides2aCoin · January 1, 2015 3:29AM

Well, I haven't heard too much about that 2008/7 SAE lately and for whatever reason, I never even bought one even as I typically order from the mint.
It's a "key date" for moderns and yet, as a collector and dealer, I've never owned one. Two gents that I've shared hours with talking collectibles, over the years (in the shop), and have dealt with on other items, remind me when they come into town that they still have those 2 they" ordered and sent in to get graded" Both MS 70 at PCGS (I'll admit I was a bit jealous, at the time and they laughed at me).

And to this day, I remind them "Bring them in, I'll buy them or trade you something "….

They won't let go. Ever since they Made the news … is it already 7 years ?

And we are talking across the spectrum, right ? Coins , in general ?

winky · January 1, 2015 3:31AM

I love key dates but like everything else the internet has made almost everything un-rare. I believe that almost every 09S VDB that was minted is still available. High grade walkers like the 21's and 19's are still rare and expensive. Good luck with your collection and like they said all the holes have to be filled.

crypto79 · January 1, 2015 4:00AM

<< I agree that the "penny board," penny folder and album promotions that have been around since the 1930s have pushed up the value of the "key dates." Over past decade and a half they have pushed up further by speculators who bought them as investments because "those pieces were the only coins worth collecting or owning." The result has been that the prices for many of these coins have been pushed up to excessive levels in my opinion. If you want to talk about rare there are many 19th century issues that are far scarcer than many of these "key dates." I think that the bubble will bust on these coins eventually. >>

For two members who tend to disagree a lot I agree with you completely yet again. The one thing that I would add that it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as the muscle memory for the dealers and collectors who are accustomed to paying up and holding strong on these. While a correction might come, they won't ever be type.

georgiacop50 · January 1, 2015 4:25AM

Some of the "semi-keys" have fared better. Take a look at 1913 25c in Good. Some nice appreciation in the last 5 yrs.

graph

TomB · January 1, 2015 4:34AM

One thing to keep in mind is that the term "key date" need not be equivalent with the term "rare coin", but rather may better be associated with the idea of completing an accessible date and mintmark set.

None of the "key dates" we grew up with (1909-S VDB, 1914-D & 1955 doubled die Lincolns, 1937-D three-legged Buff, 1916-D Merc, 1916 SLQ, 1932-D & S WQs, 1921 P, D & S WLHs, 1938-D WLH, 1921 Peace $) is particularly difficult to find and many can be found in a wide range of preservation. However, each of these is present in a series that a great many collectors could have, and historically would have, purchased to complete a date and mintmark set. As such, they are entrenched in the literature and in many minds as the coin for a particular series. The internet certainly hastened the widespread realization of this for many folks, but many others knew this to be true for decades. In the case of these coins it has been more about the balance of supply vs. demand rather than the true rarity of the extant population. This becomes jarringly clear when one looks at many Seated Liberty and Bust coins that are much more scarce on an absolute basis, but have neither the notoriety nor price-tag (in some cases) as their more famous cousins.

Cougar1978 · January 1, 2015 4:38AM

I like key dates and love to accumulate them. That 1938-D AU Walker is an attractive coin and offers excellent value vs a much more expensive high grade MS issue. Fill your holes with coins you can afford and worry about upgrades later on.

19Lyds · January 1, 2015 4:43AM

<< One thing to keep in mind is that the term "key date" need not be equivalent with the term "rare coin", but rather may better be associated with the idea of completing an accessible date and mintmark set.

None of the "key dates" we grew up with (1909-S VDB, 1914-D & 1955 doubled die Lincolns, 1937-D three-legged Buff, 1916-D Merc, 1916 SLQ, 1932-D & S WQs, 1921 P, D & S WLHs, 1938-D WLH, 1921 Peace $) is particularly difficult to find and many can be found in a wide range of preservation. However, each of these is present in a series that a great many collectors could have, and historically would have, purchased to complete a date and mintmark set. As such, they are entrenched in the literature and in many minds as the coin for a particular series. The internet certainly hastened the widespread realization of this for many folks, but many others knew this to be true for decades. In the case of these coins it has been more about the balance of supply vs. demand rather than the true rarity of the extant population. This becomes jarringly clear when one looks at many Seated Liberty and Bust coins that are much more scarce on an absolute basis, but have neither the notoriety nor price-tag (in some cases) as their more famous cousins. >>

Of all the coins you've listed, the 55/55 DDO and 3 leg should be taken out of the mix.

These are error coins. Not key dates and yes, most would disagree with that statement but I'm of the opinion that both coins were heavily promoted and both coins have "unknown" mintages. As such, including them as a "required" coin is a set would be the same as "requiring" a grease filled coin or perhaps an off center coin for a set.

TomB · January 1, 2015 4:57AM

I agree with you that they should not be needed for a complete set, but historically they have received slots in albums and that has led to greater collector pressure, desirability and cost for both.

EastonCollection · January 1, 2015 7:31AM

With the huge number of auctions as well as the amount of coins offered on the internet, what some would have considered as a key date may a key for the series but not rare as they are available without too much hunting. But if you are looking for key dates that are eye appealing with original toning then you may have to wait.

topstuf · January 1, 2015 7:47AM

That damn Max Mehl and his hyped nickels.

machoponcho · January 1, 2015 7:51AM

I think you are spot on OP when you say the internet has revealed certain things about the hobby otherwise unknown 15 years ago and you lay out an excellent case for the true availability of key dates. I have only been in the market 9 years now, so my perception is skewed. I wasn't there to look for 38-D Halves in circulation back in the day. I did several years ago now assemble complete modern sets from circulation. I do know of the scarceness of some modern key dates like 1971-P Quarters, 1979-D Dimes and so forth. I have searched through many bags of Wheat Cents over the years, some were probably searched but I don't doubt many were truly unsearched. I can appreciate the rarity of a 1909-S VDB a bit more since I have had that experience. Best I ever found in a bag of Wheats was a 1913-S.

I will say that after the Baltimore 2006 big coin show I attended (my first national coin show), I noted that 1877 was one of the more common Indian Head Cents on the bourse! But I understood why: they are worth promoting since they are so valuable. But such promotion does skew perception of actual rarity of a coin.

I have a 1921 Peace Dollar in F with rim nicks but don't have a picture of it. That is an example of a very "common" key date in common condition and has been hit by price declines consistently for the 8 years I have been paying attention now. crypto, your 38-D Walker being AU is still truly scarce because of condition; not rare, but scarce. Scarce holder, too, which does matter.

Edit to add: winky makes the very legit broader point that I have noticed and remind my friends that are a bit younger than me and don't remember a time before the internet that the internet has made almost everything common. I do remember a time before the internet; not by much, but I do. Video games that were once rare to find in the mid to late 1990s like Mega Man X3, Dragon Warrior 4, and the like are now findable and buyable because the internet has connected so many people that couldn't have been before for distance. I collected baseball cards as a kid and the 1990 Topps NNOF Frank Thomas was a grail of sorts back then or the 1991 Donruss Elite rare insert card in 1 out of every 200 packs or something like that. I have since dropped that hobby, but I have no doubt those 2 cards would be quite easily findable on the internet (for a price still of course).

puffer · January 1, 2015 8:28AM

Crypto is one of the sharpest guys on the boards, and I like the idea thread, that the "key" dates are becoming less of sought after almost like tired cliches unless they are really nice coins with eye appeal. A prospective business customer once gave me a litmus test of what an 09s vdb was worth in a given grade off the top of my head, since I rarely deal in those I passed on answering and he took me for not a sharp coin guy.

Classic no problem type coins with lots of eye appeal will continue to lead the vanguard, with the so called key dates scrutinized but not trigger purchased unless they are good deals.

Sonorandesertrat · January 1, 2015 9:09AM

<< I agree with you that they should not be needed for a complete set, but historically they have received slots in albums and that has led to greater collector pressure, desirability and cost for both. >>

I agree, and would add that getting a coin included in the Redbook has done the same thing. Isn't marketing wonderful?

shorecoll · January 1, 2015 9:23AM

Even 20 years ago you could buy rolls of 09-SVDBs 16-D dimes and even 93-S Morgans. They are more distributed now, but still not rare. Just for fun I walked a Baltimore bourse and counted 100 Isabella quarters in 63, that certainly seems as if it's not worth the price tag.

EagleEye · January 1, 2015 9:50AM

I don't recall hearing about rolls of 1916-D dimes or 1893-S dollars. Even 1909-S VDB rolls were news in the 1980's.

I see more sets being sold than assembled. The commons get thrown in the silver bin and the keys are held back and marketed. So, you'll see more keys for sale, especially in lower grades.

Analyst · January 1, 2015 10:07AM

Crypto79 in the first post to this thread: <<It's no secret that many not so rare "key dates" are declining as the Internet has opened access to information and markets allowing the public to know how not rare many of these are such as low grade 1916d dimes, 38d halves, 32s quarters and many more. That doesn't mean the aren't still kind of cool, post some of your fav classic dates and why they were considered key dates.>>

IMO, this is not a sound argument. Was anyone was seriously saying that key date 20th century coins are rare in the sense that key date bust or Liberty Seated coins are rare?

The point is that the keys are relatively much scarcer than other dates in the same respective series. The keys command premiums, not because they are "promoted," but because they are needed for complete sets 'by date' (and mint location). Besides, the keys are not usually very expensive. Please read my series.

Classic U.S. Coins for less than $500 each, Part 11: Standing Liberty Quarters

Classic U.S. Coins for less than $500 each, Part 8: Mercury Dimes

Crypto79 in the first post to this thread:<<My example is the '38-D from my complete Walker set. I always loved this date ... Prices were always strong as it the late date key for the short set of one of the best American designs.>>

I very much identify with this statement. Importantly, adults may enjoy putting together such a "short set" now, as I explain. I hope that more kids and more adults will enter the hobby.

Classic U.S. Coins for less than $500 each, Part 10: Walking Liberty Half Dollars

shorecoll · January 1, 2015 10:29AM

Rick, the rolls I'm talking about were low grade. I actually bought 1/2 roll of 16-Ds from a dealer who had 5 rolls. I seriously wish I had held them.

vplite99 · January 1, 2015 10:40AM

<< The 20th century key dates are declining in value and collector interest partly because of competition from 21st century key dates with much lower mintages. >>

WildIdea · January 1, 2015 10:51AM

I would agree that for let's say the Lincoln cent run, the 13s say in gem is tougher to land than the 1909s vdb. The later being quite easy to find as been noted, that's why I held out personally for a gorgeous one, but if I only had to live life with one Lincoln cent it would be the Promoted 1909s vdb. I can find non collectors that know what it is and can see it benefiting from its legendary status and would prob have to search within the hobby to find someone who actually cares about the 13s.

Some of the coins in this hobby are so rare nobody cares.

Overdate · January 1, 2015 11:19AM

<< Even 20 years ago you could buy rolls of 09-SVDBs 16-D dimes and even 93-S Morgans. They are more distributed now, but still not rare. Just for fun I walked a Baltimore bourse and counted 100 Isabella quarters in 63, that certainly seems as if it's not worth the price tag. >>

It might be fun to assemble a roll of a scarce 19th century Seated or Barber coin (budget permitting, of course).

Walkerguy21D · January 1, 2015 11:41AM

<< It might be fun to assemble a roll of a scarce 19th century Seated or Barber coin (budget permitting, of course). >>

A dealer friend of mine hoards the low mintage 13S Barber dime....at last count, he had close to six rolls of them. I realize
this isn't really a scarce coin, or 19th century, but given time, money, and resources, a lot of 'scarce' coins can be acquired. Another dealer friend had a collector/hoarder brother who had assembled 3 roll sets of Barber halves, all dates and mint marks. I believe most of these
were low grade coins acquired many years ago. I don't think most people live long enough to do a roll set of B-halves in XF or AU!
I've never heard of anyone hoarding seated coinage, better dates or otherwise, but perhaps some of the Forum have.
From my limited experience with the quarters and halves, budget really isn't a factor - the better coins just are not available!

Overdate · January 1, 2015 11:47AM

<< From my limited experience with the quarters and halves, budget really isn't a factor - the better coins just are not available! >>

A reasonable challenge might be to assemble a roll of a scarce date in lower grades, but original and undamaged.

Sonorandesertrat · January 1, 2015 12:59PM

"I don't think most people live long enough to do a roll set of B-halves in XF or AU!"

Wow. It wore me out just doing a single set of those in ChAU (sold them in 2007).

BLUEJAYWAY · January 1, 2015 4:15PM

All of this hoarding/stockpiling won't matter much unless interest in the hobby is cultivated among a new collector base. To follow in our footsteps and made aware of just how scarce/rare/attractive the coins truly are. Then with this interest and awareness will the hoarding efforts translate to a financial reward for said hoarders.

veryfine · January 1, 2015 6:43PM

So, if the "promoted" key dates are declining, what are collectors replacing them with? How about nothing.
Sure, I can put together a nice AU - MS type set, only to realize that I'll be stuck with heavily worn or damaged flowing hair and draped bust coins. Not so nice after all.

If collectors lose interest in these accessible keys and their so-called hyped, promoted prices, I believe they'll quickly lose interest in the hobby.

Not all, but many.

crypto79 · January 1, 2015 10:33PM

Another classic Key date that has been hoarded, coveted and promoted. No matter the hype it is still a first year of issue and almost a unique type coin with a limited Mintage of one of the most popular series.

BillJones · January 1, 2015 11:32PM

<< So, if the "promoted" key dates are declining, what are collectors replacing them with? How about nothing.
Sure, I can put together a nice AU - MS type set, only to realize that I'll be stuck with heavily worn or damaged flowing hair and draped bust coins. Not so nice after all.

If collectors lose interest in these accessible keys and their so-called hyped, promoted prices, I believe they'll quickly lose interest in the hobby.

Not all, but many. >>

My growth as a collector did not follow that pattern. When I was in high school, my dream was to acquire an 1877 Indian cent followed by the 1909-S Indian cent. I eventually acquired those two coins, but not long after that I started to venture into other sections of the Red Book where I discovered those "Flowing Hair and Draped Bust" coins and really took off as a collector. Of course some dealers discouraged those coins a collectables because they had "no future" as "investments," but that didn't stop me from chasing them after the bug bite me.

sparky64 · January 2, 2015 12:21AM

Haven't TPG's affected the key market?

Back in the day most album collectors would be thrilled to fill the 1877 IHC hole (or any other series key date) even though it had some minor issues. Cleaned, light scratches, etc.
In today's Registry era, that won't fly.

Details keys seem abundant but languish in sales. Not all but most. imho.

veryfine · January 2, 2015 6:57AM

<< 

<< So, if the "promoted" key dates are declining, what are collectors replacing them with? How about nothing.
Sure, I can put together a nice AU - MS type set, only to realize that I'll be stuck with heavily worn or damaged flowing hair and draped bust coins. Not so nice after all.

If collectors lose interest in these accessible keys and their so-called hyped, promoted prices, I believe they'll quickly lose interest in the hobby.

Not all, but many. >>

My growth as a collector did not follow that pattern. When I was in high school, my dream was to acquire an 1877 Indian cent followed by the 1909-S Indian cent. I eventually acquired those two coins, but not long after that I started to venture into other sections of the Red Book where I discovered those "Flowing Hair and Draped Bust" coins and really took off as a collector. Of course some dealers discouraged those coins a collectables because they had "no future" as "investments," but that didn't stop me from chasing them after the bug bite me. >>

Bill, I've always wanted a truly comprehensive US type set (like yours), but even as far back as the 70's, much of the flowing hair type coins such as Chain cents or Flowing Hair dollars were completely out of reach. Although they were not subject to key date promotions, they were very popular and desirable. Most collectors wanted them, but couldn't even dream of owning one in a respectable type set grade, so we just dismissed the idea.

But that's just the tip of the iceberg. What about early gold and the unaffordable sub-types? One could always pick and choose or purchase lower (and I mean LOWER) grade examples, but at that point, the type set loses its unity and the endeavor becomes a frustrating exercise; in other words, a collection that will never be complete.

Suddenly the popular date/mm sets and their respective key dates seem super cheap.

hchcoin · January 2, 2015 9:13AM

Nice observation crypto79. I never really thought of the impact of the internet on bringing some of the key dates out of the woodwork. I think your 38 D walking liberty half was a great choice to use as an example because that date does seem to be everywhere online and at shows. Makes you wonder if it really is a key date anymore.

Walkerguy21D · January 2, 2015 10:10AM

<< I think your 38 D walking liberty half was a great choice to use as an example because that date does seem to be everywhere online and at shows. Makes you wonder if it really is a key date anymore. >>

I'm guessing the only time it was really considered a key date was when people were assembling circulated sets from circulation or by searching
rolls and they had trouble finding one.

Analyst · January 15, 2015 10:20AM

BlueJayWay: <<All of this hoarding/stockpiling won't matter much unless interest in the hobby is cultivated among a new collector base.>>

VeryFine: <<So, if the "promoted" key dates are declining, what are collectors replacing them with? How about nothing.>>

I just analyzed the results of the FUN auction. My impression is that key dates fared well. Demand for better quality representatives of key dates remains about the same as demand was in Jan. 2013 or Jan. 2014. I have not yet had time to analyze auction results for key dates in lower grades. Even so, I am not aware of any decline in interest.

Rare U.S. Coins Fare Well in FUN Auction: Coin Market Levels Remain Stable

WalkerGuy: <<I'm guessing the only time (the 38-D) was really considered a key date was when people were assembling circulated sets from circulation or by searching rolls and they had trouble finding one.>>

In recent article on Walkers that cost less than $500 each, I explain the reasons for the appeal of the 38-D. Essentially, it is the key for 'late date' Walkers and people often start with the late dates before deciding whether to build an entire set. In any event, I would like to read the opinions of others, including those who disagree with me.

Classic U.S. Coins for less than $500 each, Part 10: Walking Liberty Half Dollars

ScarsdaleCoin · January 15, 2015 10:50AM

1916-d might be good as next year will be 100 anniversary

silvergoldnut · January 15, 2015 10:52AM

For me , eye appeal is the new "key date"

A ms66 and up that is deep mirror proof like or a rainbow toned with great looks is harder to find.
Seems last show I was at I found a key date in every case, but it's getting harder to find the "eye appeal " coins.

As for the Internet , yes it might of hurt in some ways , but it has helped in so much other ways in looking or if your selling.

I did a search for a 1909s vdb and was surprised how many there are for sale , then did a search for a 2008 silver eagle with reverse of 07 , wow , not many of those suckers

The declining case of promoted Key dates

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