When did the bottom fall out of Washington quarter values?

Bankerbob56 · November 7, 2014 10:35AM

I've collected Washies for a few decades, both in a Dansco and TPG. My coins are uncs. My PCGS collection of quarters are 66 and 67's. I just glanced at the price guide for this series complete date and mm and was somewhat shocked at CU's indication of values. Seems like they have plummeted?! Just wondering when this happened and why? Are other series in a similar free fall?

Tookybandit · November 7, 2014 10:43AM

Which guide?

Bankerbob56 · November 7, 2014 10:44AM

Pcgs price guide.

Casman · November 7, 2014 10:50AM

I take the guide as more of a suggestion of an opinion which differs from my own. Some buyers quote it, and other buyers buy it for more.

AMRC · November 7, 2014 10:54AM

Have you checked the population reports? Have they been going up as well? That may be a clue.....

machoponcho · November 7, 2014 10:55AM

We are in a soft market right now. The later Silver series have especially lost value over the last few years. Silver Roosies, Silver Washies, and Frankies. Actually common date Gem Walkers are even down as well. This is an incredible buying opportunity for those collectors who are in strong cash position right now. Especially with the metals being down for the moment (I don't think it will last). Fill those empty holes right now. I have noticed the decline in MS66 Silver Washie price and I have been picking a few up here and there at these lower levels, even slightly better dates like 1943-P and 1952-P. The D-mints from the early 50's are especially lower than they have been historically and I am looking at picking up a few of those in 66 should they have the right "look".

MGLICKER · November 7, 2014 10:56AM

Omaha bank hoard from about 7 or 8 years ago smashed the value of Washies. Have not recovered yet.

lasvegasteddy · November 7, 2014 10:56AM

price guide has always been wonkey

ebay completed sales
auction prices realised

the rest...i take with a grain of salt

"we have to pass this bill to know what's in it"...type of crap and..."O-care"
probably could be having a miracle grow effect on roots of this decline...

TopographicOceans · November 7, 2014 11:01AM

Right after I bought one

SoCalBigMark · November 7, 2014 12:31PM

I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections.

natetrook · November 7, 2014 12:50PM

I sent in a complete set of washington quarters this summer, and was happy to get majority 66+ as I had never seen that many 66+ coins in one submission. To me the graders look at the toning vs. the actual surfaces based on my recent submissions. The prices have been dropping and sadly they aren't worth pcgs price guide unless very PQ or have amazing toning. Also they will only get good prices if cac'd based on the recent heritage sales and ebay sales…... Just my two sense as I have been in the market of selling for quite some time this year.
Matt
Young collector

MrEureka · November 7, 2014 12:53PM

When trying to figure out why a price has changed, it's very helpful to try to understand if it should have changed.

You cannot do this without a broad perspective. In other words, you have to look far beyond Washington Quarter values and price history to understand where prices should be. After all, a coin collector does not have to collect Washington Quarters. He can collect many other types of coins, in addition to or instead of Washington quarters.

My best advice is that specialists, including Washington Quarter collectors, get a better handle on the rarity, history and traditional values of many other kinds of coins. When you do that, you'll have a better-informed opinion as to whether your series is overpriced, underpriced, or just right, regardless of where prices have been in the past. And you'll know if the current market truly is a buying opportunity, or if this was just a long overdue adjustment.

Roscoe · November 7, 2014 12:55PM

The '36-D seems to me to be the only one that's holding it's asking price. Of course that's one I'm looking to upgrade. Talking in general about Washies, everything else is soft and I'm adding when I see nice stuff. If, however, you throw in the right toners to the right audience the interest may not be so slow.

relicsncoins · November 7, 2014 2:15PM

As soon as I started selling some.

LindeDad · November 7, 2014 2:18PM

<< Omaha bank hoard from about 7 or 8 years ago smashed the value of Washies. Have not recovered yet. >>

Yep agree a large roll set bought for melt that became a lot high grades not in the Pop report for a long time after grading.

TwoSides2aCoin · November 7, 2014 4:28PM

When Taco Bell napkins became the rave.

wondercoin · November 7, 2014 4:52PM

Come over to the Registry Forum and join in my thread on a similar subject. To be sure, it ain't just Washington Quarters!

Wondercoin

panther · November 7, 2014 5:12PM

<< I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections. >>

Plus 1

they started to fall when plus grading started. The population for MS-67 quarters has gone up due to the fact that it is now OK to crack them out and resubmit them trying to get a 67+ for big money. I see pictures the same quarters in Coinfacts as a 66 then a 67 and finally get to 67+. How many times have they been crack out?

TwoSides2aCoin · November 7, 2014 5:32PM

I love indications of WHEN to buy. Even when school is not in session, it is.

AMRC · November 7, 2014 10:36PM

<< I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections. >>

I think you mean CAC? If a coin is not Plussed it could mean it is not in the top 30% for the grade. Hardly call that normal.

dpoole · November 7, 2014 10:55PM

<< I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections. >>

Plus 2

This wrinkle plus CAC essentially moved the goal posts, and caused me to abandon the grading and Registry game. Don't blame the perpetrators for instituting new revenue streams, but I'm out.

BillJones · November 7, 2014 11:05PM

One factor was the end of the State Quarter program. When that series started in 1999 there was a flock of dealers who jumped in to promote the earlier Washington Quarters. From what I saw as a dealer they succeeded. The prices for all Washington Quarters, especially the key dates, went way up especially in the Mint State grades. Then the series ended in 2008, and the mint tried to keep the interest up with the America the Beautiful series. That series has never caught on from what I can see. Hence the interest in the entire Washington Quarter series fell, and the prices came down as a result.

panther · November 7, 2014 11:06PM

<< 

<< I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections. >>

I think you mean CAC? If a coin is not Plussed it could mean it is not in the top 30% for the grade. Hardly call that normal. >>

Have you tried to get a CAC Washington Quarter in an NGC holder to cross at grade? I am 0 for 15. And I have heard the same from others. CAC on a PCGS holder means nothing to me if it doesn't mean the same thing for both NGC and PCGS.

DHeath · November 7, 2014 11:08PM

What David said.

panther · November 7, 2014 11:41PM

<< One factor was the end of the State Quarter program. When that series started in 1999 there was a flock of dealers who jumped in to promote the earlier Washington Quarters. From what I saw as a dealer they succeeded. The prices for all Washington Quarters, especially the key dates, went way up especially in the Mint State grades. Then the series ended in 2008, and the mint tried to keep the interest up with the America the Beautiful series. That series has never caught on from what I can see. Hence the interest in the entire Washington Quarter series fell, and the prices came down as a result. >>

I have been collecting Washington Quarters every day for 6 years. Buying and selling off when I upgraded. The prices stayed up until July of 2013 when the Plus grading took off. The prices since then have been cut in half.

Example of this
Just two examples of this. Some are down even more.

Cougar1978 · November 8, 2014 12:06AM

I would suggest you list your items in a spreadsheet with Cost, Market Value (max for x columns). I would then input price in columns which are for the TPG price guide (PCGS for instance), Coin World Values, Krause (Numismatic News), L&C Coins (free pricelist), and then possibly a column at CDN Bid plus a percentage (40% above bid, industry average). Using the excel function @max for these columns will give you your calculated Market Value number. You can also average them.

You should have a column for the PCGS / NGC Auction Last, High, and Low - these represent Liquidation at auction (I use Coin Facts to mine this data) and I do not consider auction data a factor in calculating market value like a price list or guide for various reasons (see below).

What I sell a coin for is a subjective call (can vary due to cash flow needs / market conditions) and the goal is a smooth landing somewhere between cost and market value. A dealer price list price will carry more weight with me than a price guide in many instances. Many price guides lag behind the CDN so its important to know what CDN Bid is and calculate a sell price as this will trump a much lower price guide price. Auction prices can be deceptive as a low price can be a real low end ugly toned dog. A really high price can possibly be a beautifully toned coin with super luster. One needs to look at the coin photo to really evaluate auction prices. Without this that a coin went at auction for X$ means nothing.

After evaluating all these micro inputs, I am able to develop a macro overview of what I will sell the coin for.

The term "bottom falling out" of a series is a subjective term unless one is comparing a 3rd party developed value like the PCGS 3000 between time periods. I also refer to the CDN for series values in a particular grade like Walkers and Commems and track these as well.

I have found Washington Quarters to be very slow sellers. Bidding on Teletrade from its inception in 1986 thru its demise I found if there was any one series who's coins constantly lagged behind the rest in prices realized (vs CW Trends for instance) it was Washington Quarters. The exception would be the key dates especially 1932-D and 1932-S.

DHeath · November 8, 2014 12:12AM

When there was one dominant third-party standard it was easy to argue about that standard in an apples-to-apples way. PCGS had numerous good ideas to attract new collectors to the hobby - grade assurance, registry sets, TrueView, this message board, collector club submissions, etc. However, those in the industry who were jealous of PCGS dominance couldn't help but perpetually attack all things PCGS - the set registry, the message board, the PCGS grading standard and consistency, etc. They remind me of people drinking bottled water to avoid the pollution caused by plastic bottles. I am not convinced anything which has transpired in the last few years to introduce multiple competing standards has done anything except silently reprice collectors holdings and provide dealers cover for a falling market.

sparky64 · November 8, 2014 12:12AM

<< When did the bottom fall out of Washington quarter values? >>

The very instant I became interested in them.

Some thoughtful input here. Good stuff.

MGLICKER · November 8, 2014 12:42AM

<< 

<< I think the plus grade is starting to be the new "correct" grade, if it is not plussed why not? Does the coin suck or has it not been resubmitted? Genius on our hosts part and makes the registry madness folks resubmit whole collections. >>

Plus 2

This wrinkle plus CAC essentially moved the goal posts, and caused me to abandon the grading and Registry game. Don't blame the perpetrators for instituting new revenue streams, but I'm out. >>

Best answer yet, and certainly from an authority on the subject.

erwindoc · November 8, 2014 12:47AM

Quality items will always sell at a premium. I think your average coin is what has fallen. Look at the prices of some of the toners and PQ white coins that have sold.

I think its a good time to be buying. When those kids that collected all the SHQ grow up and finally get jobs I think that Washington quarters will be a series where they will collect.

Sonorandesertrat · November 8, 2014 1:00AM

<< Omaha bank hoard from about 7 or 8 years ago smashed the value of Washies. Have not recovered yet. >>

Who marketed these coins? I recall that Legend unloaded tens of thousands of graded silver moderns, all purchased from an anonymous hoarder, about 4-6 years ago.

MGLICKER · November 8, 2014 1:08AM

<< 

<< Omaha bank hoard from about 7 or 8 years ago smashed the value of Washies. Have not recovered yet. >>

Who marketed these coins? I recall that Legend unloaded tens of thousands of graded silver moderns, all purchased from an anonymous hoarder, about 4-6 years ago. >>

Heritage bought the load from a private seller in 2004.

Southcounty · November 8, 2014 1:19AM

1965

telephoto1 · November 8, 2014 1:26AM

<< One factor was the end of the State Quarter program. When that series started in 1999 there was a flock of dealers who jumped in to promote the earlier Washington Quarters. From what I saw as a dealer they succeeded. The prices for all Washington Quarters, especially the key dates, went way up especially in the Mint State grades. Then the series ended in 2008, and the mint tried to keep the interest up with the America the Beautiful series. That series has never caught on from what I can see. Hence the interest in the entire Washington Quarter series fell, and the prices came down as a result. >>

As usual, Bill hit it on the head. People became tired of Washington Quarters soon after the Statehood program ended, plain and simple. We saw it here to be sure. I regularly get calls from people wanting to dump single sets and roll sets of that stuff. As a byproduct, the higher end 'classic' Washington stuff became way overpriced during the mania and promotions, and now it's starting to correct to more realistic levels. I know this statement will irk Washington enthusiasts but it's true. Rare pieces will of course remain rare, but even those numbers are going to continue to correct for a while IMO.

DHeath · November 8, 2014 1:55AM

To be sure, it ain't just Washington Quarters!.

this.

wondercoin · November 8, 2014 1:58AM

Did the bottom fall out of Lincoln cents too when state quarters finished? How about Classic silver Commems... Is there a tie in between state quarters and those as well as I am currently selling for a customer a pop 1/0 MS68 Classic silver Commem for about 60% of what it sold for back in 2005! Nearly everyone commenting here is evaluating the "microeconomics" of the situation while ignoring the "macroeconomics". Wondercoin

pf70collector · November 8, 2014 1:59AM

One factor was the end of the State Quarter program. When that series started in 1999 there was a flock of dealers who jumped in to promote the earlier Washington Quarters. From what I saw as a dealer they succeeded. The prices for all Washington Quarters, especially the key dates, went way up especially in the Mint State grades. Then the series ended in 2008, and the mint tried to keep the interest up with the America the Beautiful series. That series has never caught on from what I can see. Hence the interest in the entire Washington Quarter series fell, and the prices came down as a result.

The 1999 Silver State Quarter NGC PF70s fell tremendously. The 1999 Delaware Silver 70 is probably the only coin that held some of its value but has declined almost 70% since 08. There are a lot of PCGS DCAM 70 Silver Delaware Quarters that are selling in the $1300-$1400 range today. Down from the $4500 range in 08. Also high mint state 68 Quarters also took after the State Quarter Program ended.

wondercoin · November 8, 2014 2:02AM

Pr70... The OP is asking about the mint state versions. Wondercoin.

gypsylea · November 8, 2014 2:57AM

Dheath said: " I am not convinced anything which has transpired in the last few years to introduce multiple competing standards has done anything except silently reprice collectors holdings and provide dealers cover for a falling market. "

Truth!

pennyannie · November 8, 2014 3:14AM

The bottom fell out.... when the disposable income of the middle class went away. I have been lucky over the last 30 years and never had to worry about keeping the lights on, gas in the car and the house payment being made. I deal with low end rent property and my renters do not have 25 cents extra at the end of a month. They waste money but that is beside the point.

Maybe the price run up that could not be maintained had a lot to do with it? Bullion falling? insurance increases?

wondercoin · November 8, 2014 3:35AM

Speaking of bottoms falling out...
1953-P Lincoln Cent.... $1,880 PCGS-MS67RD the other night at the Heritage auction
1953-P Lincoln Cent.... $14,100 PCGS-MS67RD beginning of year at Heritage FUN

The $14,100 coin was average for the grade in my opinion. In other words, we are talking a real price drop here folks and it has little to do with state quarters or MS67+ grading I am afraid. Although gradeflation is a reasonable macro factor weighing on things in my view.

Wondercoin

telephoto1 · November 8, 2014 4:48AM

Every series of coins with enough high grade material to promote has been the victim of pump and dump at some point. Wash. Quarters are currently in the 'dump' phase. jmho

MrEureka · November 8, 2014 5:07AM

1953-P Lincoln Cent.... $1,880 PCGS-MS67RD the other night at the Heritage auction
1953-P Lincoln Cent.... $14,100 PCGS-MS67RD beginning of year at Heritage FUN

Anyone that was surprised by a huge drop from the 14K level is WAY too focused on Lincoln Cents.

wondercoin · November 8, 2014 5:08AM

Keep "dumping" coins like the 1935-D quarter in PCGS-MS67+ (Pop 1/0) at $6,000 hammer into these auctions and look no further than right here for your buyer.

.

Wondercoin

cladking · November 8, 2014 5:39AM

<< Every series of coins with enough high grade material to promote has been the victim of pump and dump at some point. Wash. Quarters are currently in the 'dump' phase. jmho >>

Coins go up and down in value even when it's not intentional by any party because
everything is cyclical. There aren't hundreds or even dozens of nice Gem '32-D and
S quarters that can make the market easily controlled but the availability coins and
what people are willing to pay does change.

There is some ability to affect markets other than through price, perhaps, but with-
out actual demand expressed as the actual transfer of ownership it's difficult to ac-
quire or have the inventory to sell at inflated prices. You might pump and dump the
'40-D but not scarcer coins. Even though most of the clad exists in sufficient numbers
to manipulate prices of Gems I'm aware of no attempt to ever have manipulated these
markets. This is likely because prices are so low and supply so low the coins would
be difficult to acquire. Still these prices have shown cyclical movements as well.

It's not so much I disagree with your statement as that I'm not sure it applies in this
instance with most of the silvers and not at all with the clad. I could well be mistaken.

cladking · November 8, 2014 5:45AM

A look at the PCGS price guide does show some red in the Washingtons.

link

wondercoin · November 8, 2014 7:43AM

Cladking... Regarding the "red"... Bear in mind that in some cases, the Price Guide was simply too high to begin with. Not intentionally, but, for one example, due to a lovely toned coin trading at a high price and the Guide moving up to that level. Case in point - the 1962-D quarter in MS67. A lovely toned specimen sold for strong money and the Price Guide shot up to a price well into "five figures". Then, a series of "blah" MS67 white coins got offered at lower and lower prices. Most are not selling at roughly $6,000 or so hammer. I need the coin to improve the MS66+ I currently have in my set, but unless I have the opportunity to add a very special quality MS67 coin to my slot, I will wait it out. But, the Price Guide, as a general rule, does not drop the price based upon "no sales". It adjusts prices when coins actually sell. Since a number of 1962-D quarters have failed to sell in the $6,000-$7,000 range of late the Guide has only adjusted down to "$9,000" on the coin. Yet, I personally believe this coin is currently worth between $3,500 - $5,000 for a "blah" white specimen and this says nothing as to the true value of a lovely toned specimen like the one that moved the price up in the first place. I will simply wait for the level I am comfortable at to buy this coin as I am confident it is not worth anywhere close to "$9,000" for an average quality coin despite what the Guide says. And, when I do end up buying the coin for, say, $4,000 publicly and it is a reported price - did the coin crash in price from the current $9,000 level? Of course not as the coin should be priced at $6,000 or $7,000 tops right this minute, not $9,000.

Yes, all very complicated and one should do their homework in any series they want to get serious about.

As always, just my two cents.

Wondercoin

When did the bottom fall out of Washington quarter values?

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