For what series is the Greysheet reliable?

stevepk · October 24, 2014 11:58AM

What series is the Greysheet reliable?
What series is the Greysheet unreliable?
For those series which the Greysheet is unreliable, are true market values over or under?
Please compare Greysheet to actual market values for problem-free, pleasing examples

BustHalfBrian · October 24, 2014 12:35PM

Greysheet is useless for VF-XF Capped Bust, Seated, and Barber half dollars.

Listed values are waaay under what they really trade for.

DollarAfterDollar · October 24, 2014 1:07PM

Actually a very good question.

I think Morgan bids are actually maybe 5% higher than reality. BU/MS stuff.

Circulated tough date buffalos are probably 25% too high.

AMRC · October 24, 2014 1:14PM

And I can not even tell you why. They get all the same data as the rest of us. Weird.

LanceNewmanOCC · October 24, 2014 1:25PM

.
amazing how many times i've seen this question during my short tenure. i would say search the archives to find trends but changing bullion prices and millions of auction archives it seems to me "reliable" greysheet pricing is more fluid from year to year, or even month to month.

i recall dealers at shows stating on numerous occasions how much stuff went up or down since the last issue. so asking what is reliable is kind of like asking what never changes as anything else is unreliable and unpredictable?

one could say that there are issues that are reliably up and then down but that sounds too much like manipulation and i'm not going there with this post.
.

roadrunner · October 24, 2014 1:39PM

For readily available coins in readily available grades, the CDN is reliable. Everything else is a crap shoot. The CDN is not meant to be a guide for perfect problem free 18th-19th century circ coins or anything else. It probably parallels market acceptable grades with market acceptable issues. Coins with more problems or no problems can bring way different prices. The scarcer the coin, the better the odds that the CDN is off. But, there are numerous examples of better date material (or low mintage) where the CDN overestimates the actual value. A simpler way of stating that is that for underrated issues, the CDN is too low. For overrated issues and types, it's too high.

While the forum membership numbers in the thousands, the CDN compilers are probably only a few people. There's no way they can keep up with us or anyone else for all the different series we have specialists in. Just like the TPG's could nail grading accuracy to >90% accuracy (at some higher price per submission) so too could the CDN nail pricing accuracy to well above 90%. And what would either gain from doing that other than "good will"? Many top dealers prefer a CDN with numerous holes. The same dealers probably appreciate a little sloppiness in TPG grading too. A completely level grading field and grading guide would make a much less profitable market for those who actively participate in it.

COALPORTER · October 24, 2014 1:56PM

I think some of the popular AU grades aren't even listed (which ones, I cant recall) but it is always
problematic when selling coins in grades that are not listed. Dealers always want to look at the next
lowest grade, which can be a major rip-off for certain coins. Im not sure why grading services would
had out tons of AU55s but the CDN ignores the grade ?

cucamongacoin · October 24, 2014 2:02PM

I find it pretty much useless for any pre 1940 unc Lincolns.

pennyannie · October 24, 2014 2:52PM

<< Greysheet is useless for VF-XF Capped Bust, Seated, and Barber half dollars.

Listed values are waaay under what they really trade for. >>

Most B&M's like to use grey sheet values for the above coins when BUYING, they forget where they placed the greysheet when a buyer is wanting to buy from them.

keets · October 24, 2014 5:45PM

...................it's a GUIDE.

Most B&M's like to use grey sheet values for the above coins when BUYING, they forget where they placed the greysheet when a buyer is wanting to buy from them.

we buy/sell exclusively from the "Bid" side of the sheet, you are welcome at our shop anytime. my binder is right next to my phone and my boss has his somewhere on his desk when he isn't referencing it.

Steve · October 24, 2014 10:00PM

These kind of questions are always popular and interesting BUT they lead to a dead end as far as an answer if concerned. In this particular question we are talking about WHOLESALE pricing, the price a dealer will pay for a particular coin. In reality, he will pay different prices for a given coin depending on HIS perception of what he can sell the coin for. For common date coins in a particular series he may use the Greysheet as a GUIDE in his mind to determine the price he will pay.

So when a collector asks if the Greysheet is reliable, one needs to ask the collector, reliable for what? The collector SHOULD base his values for a coin on the retail price guides, NOT the Greysheet. What we all need is a two price guideline for every coin. An average retail AND wholesale price guide so that a RANGE can be projected in the MINDS of both buyer and seller and then an equitable agreement on a trading price can be agreed to. I know it won't happen in my lifetime, but that's the kind of price guide for coins we really need. Steve

TwoSides2aCoin · October 25, 2014 12:16AM

Will typically have potential customer grade the coins when buying or selling if they haven't done so already (outside of plastic 99% of the time), and usually after I've looked at both the coin, and a grey sheet, as well as a coin world or ebay.
Sometimes we agree. Sometimes I challenge them to send their coins to PCGS like I do.
If worse comes to better, its the Heritage archives, or wherever it's necessary to PROVE or disprove. For me, it's a chore proving all the time.

I will say the PRICE GUIDE is unreliable when negotiations occur with widgets, almost 99% of the time.
And very reliable when we come to terms on THE COINs offered, despite the series.

Walkerguy21D · October 25, 2014 1:15AM

<< For readily available coins in readily available grades, the CDN is reliable. Everything else is a crap shoot. >>

This.
And that goes for the Seated and Barber coins too - sorry aficionados. Coins like the 93S, 97S, and 05O halves are indeed valued way over
sheet prices, but not so the common coins.

ms70 · October 25, 2014 1:48AM

<< I find it pretty much useless for any pre 1940 unc Lincolns. >>

I find it pretty much useless period. Personally I think it's an old school, outdated sort of guide that outlived it's usefulness.

Walkerguy21D · October 25, 2014 2:05AM

<< I find it pretty much useless period. Personally I think it's an old school, outdated sort of guide that outlived it's usefulness. >>

A lot of things are useless if you aren't careful.
I showed a better date seated quarter to a 'pseudo specialist' at the Lakeland show last week....he logged into his CCE, then proceeded
to explain to me my price too high, here look at what this similar coin sold for at auction....yes, indeed my price was a little high, but
then again the auction record was from 2002, and when I pointed that out, and asked if he was selling any of his coins using 12 year old
records, he got kinda sheepish.

hchcoin · October 25, 2014 3:37AM

Reliable or not, every dealer who I sold coins to today at a show pulled our the greysheet before making an offer. That tells me it is relevant and also drives market prices at the show level. I have no problem with that because I know what the sheet says for the coins I am selling. It is a great starting point.

keets · October 25, 2014 6:08AM

the GreySheet is a good guide as many of us have said but I will also agree that at times ANY price guide is not much help. how many times have you asked or been asked "What do you need to get" or simply "How much" when you're sitting at the table?? with the GreySheet as a guide most coins can be bought and sold.

stevepk · October 25, 2014 9:43AM

'It's just a guide' is not an acceptable answer. Take the 1857 large cent for example. I do not have a Greysheet in front of me, so I cannot list specific numbers. I have found numerous examples of the coin and never has it been priced anywhere near Greysheet. I have been told by several dealers that the 1857 large cent cannot be found anywhere near Greysheet prices in problem-free condition.

If the Greysheet was off by 20%, I could justify 'it's just a guide' as an acceptable answer. Some variance is allowed. Inferior examples may be offered for 20% less than Greysheet, typical examples at 100%, and exceptionally nice examples at 120%. Some dealers ask for higher markups than others and some dealers have more invested in their inventory. This is how a guide works and is acceptable.

Once you notice a trend for any given series or date that inferior examples sell for 125% of the guide, normal examples at 200% the guide, and exceptionally nice examples at 300% of the guide, it is no longer a guide. At that point it is just wrong and useless information. You have to draw the line somewhere.

Sure, one or two dealers may be overpriced, but when you start noticing a trend, you know something is wrong.

The 1857 large cent is another example and a contribution to my own thread. This date typically trades for much higher amounts than the Greysheet suggests it should trade for.

hchcoin · October 25, 2014 10:00AM

<< Once you notice a trend for any given series or date that inferior examples sell for 125% of the guide, normal examples at 200% the guide, and exceptionally nice examples at 300% of the guide, it is no longer a guide. At that point it is just wrong and useless information. You have to draw the line somewhere.
>>

I call that an arbitrage opportunity. It happens with rare coins all the time. You find a seller who does not know the series very well using the greysheet ask. You purchase at that price and turn around and sell it to someone who knows the series and is willing to pay a premium.

Steve · October 25, 2014 11:50AM

Some people who are reading this thread AND ARE COLLECTORS, NOT DEALERS, may be assuming the conversation here applies to their attempt to buy coins from dealers at close to Greysheet bid and ask pricing. That is why we need TWO prices for every coin. Wholesale price and retail price. Knowledgeable collectors know these facts. Why not just publish the two price ranges with clear explanations of what they are? Steve

joebb21 · October 25, 2014 11:50AM

I have some morgans I am selling at roughly 50% of greysheet bid

DollarAfterDollar · October 26, 2014 3:14AM

Steve, I think you use the Grey Sheet exclusively as a Dealer buying tool. There is however also an ask side to most coins listed. That amount should be a guidepost for both Dealers and Collectors however, on most coins the ask price rarely applies.

If anything, in your example of a wholesale and bid range list, the eventual sales price shouldn't even be included on a grey Sheet simply because it's determined by the needs of the Dealer doing the selling.

Boosibri · October 26, 2014 3:20AM

I was walking around a rare S mint $5 in mid AU CAC and a few dealers asked me what the Greysheets was on it. All I could think about was how stupid they sounded after walking away.

CoinZip · October 26, 2014 5:13AM

I can't read the print so its useless to me......

291fifth · October 26, 2014 6:51AM

At your local Sunday bourse or B&M, probably all of them.

Steve · October 26, 2014 9:40AM

<< Steve, I think you use the Grey Sheet exclusively as a Dealer buying tool. There is however also an ask side to most coins listed. That amount should be a guidepost for both Dealers and Collectors however, on most coins the ask price rarely applies.

If anything, in your example of a wholesale and bid range list, the eventual sales price shouldn't even be included on a grey Sheet simply because it's determined by the needs of the Dealer doing the selling. >>

My understanding of the ask price in the Greysheet is a guideline for buying and selling between professional dealers. When collectors ASSUME that dealers will sell to them at Greysheet ask price rather than negotiate based on a wholesale/retail price range, I believe the collector is ASSUMING incorrectly. Of course, every transaction is different just as every coin is different. My point is in regard to average common coins being traded between a dealer and a collector. Steve

roadrunner · October 26, 2014 10:11AM

I would think the CDN would overprice things like 1855-S to 1859-S seated quarters in low grades (Fair-VG). You can always find overpriced listings in most series. Many of these are associated with low mintages where an inordinate amount of coins (often lower grades) have survived.

stevepk · October 26, 2014 11:39AM

As a collector, I still have an interest in the value of a coin between dealers. I want to get a fair price so that I know I will not be forever sunk in the coin. I expect to pay a reasonable amount over the dealer-to-dealer price, but at the same time, I do not want to pay so much that there is no chance I'll ever see my money again. If I know a coin is valued at $100 between dealers, I am willing to pay $120 for it. I think a 20% markup is plenty fair to the dealer. However, if I know the dealer paid $100 for the coin and wants to charge me $300, I have a problem. This is where I should be able to refer to the Greysheet to determine if the dealer is overcharging me.

I know it is a hobby, and any expenditures incurred by a hobby should be considered a sunk cost. However, coin collecting is different. I don't mind that my coin has been owned by someone else in the past, and the next owner will not care either. Compare coin collecting to golf. You would not want to buy used golf shoes, and you would expect a discount on used golf balls and clubs. Why is this? It is because this used equipment is not equivalent to its brand-new counterpart. A previously owned coin, however, is identical to any other regardless of how many people have owned it. It is not a depreciating asset.

My fascination with the history of United States coins and currency is the chief reason why I collect. Once several thousand dollars have been spent, a collector needs to assess whether he will ever see that money again, and if so, how much of it he will see. It is also nice to know that numismatic purchases are reversible in case the collector decides to sell at any point.

Besides, no one likes to pay a large amount of money for something only to realize later that it could be been purchased at a better price or that someone else was able to obtain a coin just as nice for an even better price. I don't think anyone is too fond of the concept of overpaying.

For what series is the Greysheet reliable?

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