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All it takes are two strong bidders on a POP 1
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
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edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
Comments
4 snipe bids came in within 21 seconds of the close.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go.
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<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go. >>
The underbidder bumped his bid several times before the auction ended. If the winner hadn't sniped, you can be certain that underbidder would have bumped his bid again, but the snipe didn't give him a chance to react. that's how sniping both a) saves you money and b) increases your chances to win the item.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go. >>
The underbidder bumped his bid several times before the auction ended. If the winner hadn't sniped, you can be certain that underbidder would have bumped his bid again, but the snipe didn't give him a chance to react. that's how sniping both a) saves you money and b) increases your chances to win the item. >>
I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money. The final bid was essentially a nuclear snipe and someone else placed an even higher one.
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<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go. >>
The underbidder bumped his bid several times before the auction ended. If the winner hadn't sniped, you can be certain that underbidder would have bumped his bid again, but the snipe didn't give him a chance to react. that's how sniping both a) saves you money and b) increases your chances to win the item. >>
I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money. The final bid was essentially a nuclear snipe and someone else placed an even higher one. >>
If the winner had bid with enough time remaining, the underbidder would very likely have bid again to bump the price and cost him more money.
It is also unusual that this card is the only item that underbidder has bid on in the past 30 days on ebay. Hmm.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>A bid placed with 21 seconds to go is not a snipe, it's a manual bid from someone watching the closing seconds. The max I can go with my snipe app is 12 seconds before the end of an auction. Anything outside of 5 seconds from the end of the auction is likely not a snipe. >>
It is essentially a manual snipe. I send off bids with less then 10 seconds to go frequently and it hasn't saved me a penny.
Bidder: h***0 ( 21Feedback score is 10 to 49)
Feedback: 100% Positive
Item description: 1987 O-Pee-Chee OPC Box Bottoms #D Luc Robitaille RC Rookie AUTO PSA 10 GEM MINT
Bids on this item: 8
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 8
Items bid on: 1
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 100% Help
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 0
Congrats to h***0 on their successful consignment with Probstein?
Snorto~
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<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go. >>
The underbidder bumped his bid several times before the auction ended. If the winner hadn't sniped, you can be certain that underbidder would have bumped his bid again, but the snipe didn't give him a chance to react. that's how sniping both a) saves you money and b) increases your chances to win the item. >>
I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money. The final bid was essentially a nuclear snipe and someone else placed an even higher one. >>
If the winner had bid with enough time remaining, the underbidder would very likely have bid again to bump the price and cost him more money.
It is also unusual that this card is the only item that bidder has bid on in the past 30 days on ebay. Hmm. >>
And hence how the perfect way to shill is a high final bid looking for the nuclear snipe.
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<< <i>A bid placed with 21 seconds to go is not a snipe, it's a manual bid from someone watching the closing seconds. The max I can go with my snipe app is 12 seconds before the end of an auction. Anything outside of 5 seconds from the end of the auction is likely not a snipe. >>
It is essentially a manual snipe. I send off bids with less then 10 seconds to go frequently and it hasn't saved me a penny. >>
Snipes can be done manually, sure, but certainly not with that amount of time remaining. Those are bids not snipes. The definition of snipe is a bid launched within last 5 seconds that doesn't give other bidders the chance to manually react.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>Good thing the winner sniped as if he hadn't the underbidder would have kept bidding him up to either bump the sale price or win the card. Saved himself money by sniping for sure. >>
The under bidders final bid came in with 21 seconds to go and he was triple stacked. The winner placed his snipe with 3 seconds to go. >>
The underbidder bumped his bid several times before the auction ended. If the winner hadn't sniped, you can be certain that underbidder would have bumped his bid again, but the snipe didn't give him a chance to react. that's how sniping both a) saves you money and b) increases your chances to win the item. >>
I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money. The final bid was essentially a nuclear snipe and someone else placed an even higher one. >>
If the winner had bid with enough time remaining, the underbidder would very likely have bid again to bump the price and cost him more money.
It is also unusual that this card is the only item that bidder has bid on in the past 30 days on ebay. Hmm. >>
And hence how the perfect way to shill is a high final bid looking for the nuclear snipe. >>
No one would dispute that. Shill bidding is a totally different topic and unlike sniping will certainly COST you money if you are competing against a shill.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>A bid placed with 21 seconds to go is not a snipe, it's a manual bid from someone watching the closing seconds. The max I can go with my snipe app is 12 seconds before the end of an auction. Anything outside of 5 seconds from the end of the auction is likely not a snipe. >>
It is essentially a manual snipe. I send off bids with less then 10 seconds to go frequently and it hasn't saved me a penny. >>
Snipes can be done manually, sure, but certainly not with that amount of time remaining. Those are bids not snipes. The definition of snipe is a bid launched within last 5 seconds that doesn't give other bidders the chance to manually react. >>
I see. I thought most of the snipe programs went off with 8 seconds or less. I have fired off lots of bids in that under 10 second time frame and no difference in the outcome for me.
For what it's worth I think that's a horrible hammer price. I think that's an $800-$1000 card if you leave it up as a BIN. I can't fathom a Pop 1 HOF rookie from the 80s in any sport going for less than $500.
<< <i>I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money.
It is essentially a manual snipe. I send off bids with less then 10 seconds to go frequently and it hasn't saved me a penny. >>
How can you know that you save no money when sniping when you can't prove whether someone else saved money when sniping?
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<< <i>I get the increasing your chances to win. Just no way to prove he saved any money.
It is essentially a manual snipe. I send off bids with less then 10 seconds to go frequently and it hasn't saved me a penny. >>
How can you know that you save no money when sniping when you can't prove whether someone else saved money when sniping? >>
There is a period of calm before the storm. If you watch loads of EBAY auctions many have no bids for much of the day heading into the end of the auction. So many cards launch on the close. I have had bids in with hours to go and in so many cases there are no further bids until the end. I have bid with 7 seconds to go and the snipe comes in seconds later and the same results.
A year or so ago I gave the final second bidding a try to see if I could notice a difference. Everyone swore that it would save you money. None. Any card that has two or more people who want it gets bids at the end that are much higher then the pack of bidders.
The point is you can never predict what is really out there.
If the so called smart money is bidding at the end with their only bid it has changed the landscape and the flow of auctions.
<< <i>Could have ended around $125.00
>>
You can't tell what an item would have sold for if the winner did not bid. Some bids prevent other bids from going through.
What I wonder is why ebay doesn't change their policy to one that closes auctions 10 minutes after the last bid.
Gets rid of snipes and ensures the highest price for the seller.
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<< <i>Could have ended around $125.00
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You can't tell what an item would have sold for if the winner did not bid. Some bids prevent other bids from going through.
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75 Topps Ryan
This is a perfect example of what you are referring to. At first glance it appears that had bidder 480 not bid the under bidder would have won for just over $1,200.
With 438 placing bids for several days and pushing the price higher one could think this could have gone for less. That being said as the price was pushed higher it could have easily kept other bidders from placing bids and nullified snipes that were set early and never went off.
There is no way what so ever to predict what would have happened had someone not bid. The under bidder may have planned to bid close to $2,400 the entire time and was just hoping he didn't have to. In no way shape or form do they look like a shill. They may exhibit a pattern of bidding stronger as an auction progress's and placing their strongest bids at the end.
It is like trying to predict the daily stock market change. Some can easily get the direction right but not the number of points.
The pack and then the nuclear snipes with the winning bid being 79% higher then the second under bidder.
Case closed.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Enlightenment sometimes takes time. I'm sure the last guy who was convinced the world was flat had difficulty convincing others, too. >>
Grote I have been studying this topic since I came to the boards four years ago. I pay a great deal of attention to prices and no one has produced an argument that will change my mind.
I have no problem being an outlier.
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<< <i>Enlightenment sometimes takes time. I'm sure the last guy who was convinced the world was flat had difficulty convincing others, too. >>
Grote I have been studying this topic since I came to the boards four years ago. I pay a great deal of attention to prices and no one has produced an argument that will change my mind.
I have no problem being an outlier. >>
I respect your conviction. Even if I disagree with it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Well then I guess we can all go home.
Dpeck, you are 100% wrong on sniping. I'm afraid the more you chime in on this, it increases the likelihood that your other opinions will become marginalized,
That would be a shame
<< <i>Case closed?
Well then I guess we can all go home. >>
Look at the bidding history. The under bidder placed their only bid $1,335 higher then the third under bidder on the 5th. The snipe comes in at the end and pushes the price up 513% on the close.
You can not predict this stuff with any accuracy.
Both of the auctions I posted prove exactly what I am arguing.
<< <i>Case closed?
Well then I guess we can all go home.
Dpeck, you are 100% wrong on sniping. I'm afraid the more you chime in on this, it increases the likelihood that your other opinions will become marginalized,
That would be a shame >>
I couldn't hardly find one person in 2004 and into 2005 to agree with me that real estate was heading for a collapse. I studied the housing market going back as far as the data would go and came to the conclusion we would see a massive decline of 40% to 70% in some areas. I spent over 100 hours of my own time researching this and had all kinds of statistics that showed housing was wildly over valued. Those were fighting words in Florida. A few years later my analysis that seemed so crazy wasn't.
If this marginalizes my contributions to the forum so be it. I personally find it odd that no one is willing to look at an auction that jumps 513% in the final seconds and doesn't see that market forces are what determines the final price.
I don't take any of the criticism personally and I am used to being on the other side of many arguments.
It prevents bidding wars and shilling and I think it works fabulously.
I have found during my lifetime that it is often beneficial to allow yourself to consider the other side of a debate which will occasionally lead to self-enlightenment or an epiphany that you wouldnt otherwise experience if you too stubbornly cling to your initial opinion, however misguided.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>So because you claim to have predicted a downturn in the real estate market a decade ago, we should belive you have the whole sniping debate figured out?
I have found during my lifetime that it is often beneficial to allow yourself to consider the other side of a debate which will occasionally lead to self-enlightenment or an epiphany that you wouldnt otherwise experience if you too stubbornly cling to your initial opinion, however misguided. >>
Grote I have been at the fore front of many trends. It was just one example of a situation where I was an outlier opinion.
No matter what argument I made no one would listen. In the end market forces won.
I have taken into consideration all of the arguments for the past four years and will continue to. Until a see some evidence I will continue thinking the way I do.
The breakout in card prices from many genres has made me even more convinced of my position.
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<< <i>So because you claim to have predicted a downturn in the real estate market a decade ago, we should belive you have the whole sniping debate figured out?
I have found during my lifetime that it is often beneficial to allow yourself to consider the other side of a debate which will occasionally lead to self-enlightenment or an epiphany that you wouldnt otherwise experience if you too stubbornly cling to your initial opinion, however misguided. >>
Grote I have been at the fore front of many trends. It was just one example of a situation where I was an outlier opinion.
No matter what argument I made no one would listen. In the end market forces won.
I have taken into consideration all of the arguments for the past four years and will continue to. Until a see some evidence I will continue thinking the way I do.
The breakout in card prices from many genres has made me even more convinced of my position. >>
In the past six months I have made great money in the bond market buying long term treasuries. Having met with loads of different bond managers that were convinced interest rates were going to rise I maintained the position they would fall. As you can imagine those were interesting discussions.
Not one person could argue with my position that rates must stay low to keep the budget deficit in check and hold housing together. They just said well rates should be higher.
I have no problem taking the other side and putting my money where my mouth is.
First of all, I totally disagree with the comment about your opinion on sniping marginalizing you in the forum. I enjoy your posts on wrestling around the board here and of course the infamous crackout video.
While I do agree that there is no way to prove that I have saved money, I imagine that if another bidder and I were in an auction and were going toe-to-toe versus we two sniping, the results would be different. As it stands with sniping I determine what I am willing to spend and walk away. There is no temptation then for me to continue bidding beyond what I wanted or get caught up in the moment. The same goes for the other seller, there is the potential for them to spend more money than they would have sniping if the excitement lured them into deeper bidding. If you have good self-control this isn't as much of a problem. In the case of perfect self-control no extra money would be spent because you'd bid the same amount with a snipe as you would if you manually input the bid.
Another point is regarding the nibble-bidders. If you are the only person who made a bid around the normal market price, the guy who put in $3.47 as his max bid may come back and try to inch you up closer to market price when he sees you have outbid him. I have definitely gotten some deals when sniping, taking PSA 10 cards away from a nibbler at just over my cost to grade them on a special. At other times I have not gotten a deal but that was because I didn't care to (nuke).
Another reason I like to snipe is that nobody knows I'm coming. If I have a bid in, that indicates an interested party. On cards that are not hotly contested I think this is an advantage as a person would be less likely to make a strong bid if they didn't think others were coming in.
I wonder if the difference is that you are bidding on higher-end cards and basing your opinions on those? The cards I bid on are typically up to $100 max and may not have the same kind of following or interest, potentially changing the game.
This seemed like a fun discussion to jump in to, so there's some food for thought.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I am still unclear what your overall argument regarding sniping really is. As far as I can tell you have only produced one scenario where sniping may be bad (seller getting cold feet and ending an auction early because bidding is too low) yet that scenario still requires another bidder to bid aggressively early for the price to rise to a level where the seller does not get nervous. What exactly are the drawbacks to sniping?
Undoubtedly being a contrarian can be very lucrative.
Robb
<< <i>DPeck you must not have been reading Bill Fleckenstein (Contrarian Chronicles) on MSN if you couldn't find anyone else that agreed with your overpriced housing theory in the mid-2000s.
I am still unclear what your overall argument regarding sniping really is. As far as I can tell you have only produced one scenario where sniping may be bad (seller getting cold feet and ending an auction early because bidding is too low) yet that scenario still requires another bidder to bid aggressively early for the price to rise to a level where the seller does not get nervous. What exactly are the drawbacks to sniping?
Undoubtedly being a contrarian can be very lucrative.
Robb >>
There were certainly other people making the call that housing would be an issue. Several hedge fund managers like Bill Fleckenstein made that call openly. When you have a discussion with someone on the street the vast majority wouldn't be reading his commentary. Instead they would have been celebrating the price gains that the media was touting.
My argument is that EBAY auctions are to random that there is not a biding strategy that will make a difference on almost all auctions. When you have so many outlier bids being placed from the current price heading into the final moments it becomes an even more random event.
The number of people who are actively searching for collectibles has gone up and this further complicates the matter. Many approach cards from a business perspective and are actively prospecting and looking for deals to flip. This tightens up a market and makes it harder to win.
You never know who is out there is my belief. The world is really big and out of no where someone can come in and alter the pricing landscape for cards.
If the market were in a trading range and the participants were lower like they were a few years ago I can more easily see scenarios where sniping could work. If a card is range bound or there are a few listed within a short period it may appear the lower selling price came from the bidding strategy. I would contend that you might have lost a card for the higher price and your snipe was that and you won for a lower price simply due to someone else either already having the card or they weren't looking at the moment. This is just to random for me to determine the timing of the placement of the bid was the cause.
<< <i>David,
First of all, I totally disagree with the comment about your opinion on sniping marginalizing you in the forum. I enjoy your posts on wrestling around the board here and of course the infamous crackout video.
While I do agree that there is no way to prove that I have saved money, I imagine that if another bidder and I were in an auction and were going toe-to-toe versus we two sniping, the results would be different. As it stands with sniping I determine what I am willing to spend and walk away. There is no temptation then for me to continue bidding beyond what I wanted or get caught up in the moment. The same goes for the other seller, there is the potential for them to spend more money than they would have sniping if the excitement lured them into deeper bidding. If you have good self-control this isn't as much of a problem. In the case of perfect self-control no extra money would be spent because you'd bid the same amount with a snipe as you would if you manually input the bid.
Another point is regarding the nibble-bidders. If you are the only person who made a bid around the normal market price, the guy who put in $3.47 as his max bid may come back and try to inch you up closer to market price when he sees you have outbid him. I have definitely gotten some deals when sniping, taking PSA 10 cards away from a nibbler at just over my cost to grade them on a special. At other times I have not gotten a deal but that was because I didn't care to (nuke).
Another reason I like to snipe is that nobody knows I'm coming. If I have a bid in, that indicates an interested party. On cards that are not hotly contested I think this is an advantage as a person would be less likely to make a strong bid if they didn't think others were coming in.
I wonder if the difference is that you are bidding on higher-end cards and basing your opinions on those? The cards I bid on are typically up to $100 max and may not have the same kind of following or interest, potentially changing the game.
This seemed like a fun discussion to jump in to, so there's some food for thought. >>
The crack out video was made as a joke. Right before I was heading to the pool I made the video. I was tired of defending my strategy and decided to just make a video to show I was being honest. It is wild it is up to over 4,000 views and is the highest rated crack out video.
I have bid on items that have ranged from $.01 to a little over $2,000. I have found it to be impossible to completely predict movements. I have sold some items and when I start them at $0.99 I have a bad habit of constantly checking them. The prices find their market clearing price in most cases in the final moments. The top segment of the bids on most items are placed at the end and thus making it no longer the advantage it once was.
The thing that determines the outcome on auctions is the competition and the fact that only one person gets to take it home.
Now, someone mentioned earlier in this thread that ebay ought to extend bidding till ten minutes after last bid placed. Such a change would make dpeck correct about sniping not really being a factor, but you all know the old saying about if this or if that..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I came across this listing in March and placed a low bid to essentially put it on my watch list. My initial bid really meant nothing as the item has sold for a great deal more many times. The winning bidder sniped and I am sure his max was probably 10 times the final hammer price.
There was no one to bid me up even if my max had been higher and he came in at the end. This means this sat at a low price for a large part of the duration of the auction. His winning bid had absolutely nothing to do with the timing and nor did the winning price.
It was simply an over looked auction and one I had no plans to make a competitive bid on.
There are tons of similar examples.
<< <i>1992 WCW
I came across this listing in March and placed a low bid to essentially put it on my watch list. My initial bid really meant nothing as the item has sold for a great deal more many times. The winning bidder sniped and I am sure his max was probably 10 times the final hammer price.
There was no one to bid me up even if my max had been higher and he came in at the end. This means this sat at a low price for a large part of the duration of the auction. His winning bid had absolutely nothing to do with the timing and nor did the winning price.
It was simply an over looked auction and one I had no plans to make a competitive bid on.
There are tons of similar examples. >>
A) You have no idea what his snipe bid was
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>1992 WCW
I came across this listing in March and placed a low bid to essentially put it on my watch list. My initial bid really meant nothing as the item has sold for a great deal more many times. The winning bidder sniped and I am sure his max was probably 10 times the final hammer price.
There was no one to bid me up even if my max had been higher and he came in at the end. This means this sat at a low price for a large part of the duration of the auction. His winning bid had absolutely nothing to do with the timing and nor did the winning price.
It was simply an over looked auction and one I had no plans to make a competitive bid on.
There are tons of similar examples. >>
A) You have no idea what his snipe bid was
This guys is one of the prospectors out there in wrestling cards. He has quote a few listed and buys and sells. This item has sold for over $315 and a PSA 9 Steve Austin sold for $600 on EBAY.
Hard to exactly call it junk.
His max was easily $150 with the intention to flip it for a gain. You are right I don't know what it was but I know I had no chance to win at $15.50 because one more buyer wanted it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I'm trying to find out where the AUTO is. Might as well put '24 kt gold' and 'Lamborghini' in the title as well. >>
+1. That's the same thing I was trying to figure out when I checked the link. What's up with the key word spam?
<< <i>C) You or someone else who thought the item was worth more than $15.50 might have won the item for $20, maybe $22, because once again, you have no idea what his snipe bid was. One thing is fir sure, though, he sniped and he won and wasn't bumped up, either. >>
The fact that other wrestling card collectors over looked the auction is why this sold for what it did. I know for fact if Rob had seen it he would have bid much higher and it would have had a higher final selling price.
He didn't and it went for pennies on the dollar. There are others who most likely would have bid higher too.
The person who won is a snipe bidder. One of the nice things about selling cards is you can learn both sides of the market.
He has shown a trend in the past few months of coming in on many items. His final bids can jump a card dramatically. I sold him a Kane that was raw that was at just over a $1 with seconds to go and two snipe bids came in and he won the card for $23. The gap was literally from just over the the opening bid to the hammer price. I was stunned.
You're illustrating my point--if Rob had seen it and set his own snipe, he might have won the card.
That is yet another advantage to sniping--if you see an auction, you don't even have to put in a "placement bid" to watch it--you can set your snipe at the price you feel comfortable with and go on with your life and when the auction ends, the snipe will be entered and no one has an opportunity to chip bid or bump you up or reconsider how much they really want to spend to win, and you may come out on top. Surely even you can understand that advantage?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Here's a true story, from just a few moments ago.
I wanted a card. Historically sells for X. This example looked nicer than the others on VCP, so I figured I would snipe it at X+, paying just a bit short of what the next grade usually sells for, on average.
I see there is one bidder that has come in with about 30 minutes left, who takes the lead with ten dollars over the last sale, which was about the average. So someone else wants it and is willing to pay a bit of a premium-- or more, depending on what his max is.
I adjust my snipe accordingly, raising it to just a hair beneath the next grade's average and several increments above the current top bid.
No one else bids except for my snipe at 3 seconds to go, but I was still below that top bidder. My snipe pushed him up into what the next grade sells for.
I can say with 100% certainty that had I placed my snipe as a manual bid with enough time (be it thirty seconds or thirty minutes) left to bid more, my competitive instincts and spectacular lack of self control (this is not a good trait) would have taken hold of the situation, and I would have gone at it with this other guy for quite a bit more money. Who knows where this card would have wound up. I would have either won it at a huge premium compared to what others have been obtained for, or I'd have lost it to someone as crazy as I am, LOL.
So what I can take away from this loss is that sniping prevented me from spending a ton more money than I would have liked...
And at the same time, sniping prevented me from winning a card I wanted, and would have happily paid a little more for.
In a parallel universe where I paid more, I'd be happier than I am now. But if I paid past a certain figure I know in my mind, I'd be upset. In this reality where I lost, I'm just kind of meh, which is fine; this wasn't a rare card I had to have at all costs. I just like having a record of 100% bid to win ratio; I like every ebay bid I make to be the final, winning bid.
My point here is, the psychology of the bidders is a variable in the sniping-benefit-or-not debate that kind of keeps the target moving. Not to mention, there are multiple bidders from whose perspective one can look at sniping and its effect-- it's not just about the winner and did he save money or not.
I think, in the end, as with prices and grading, there is always a desire on the part of some to apply general, unifying rules to the card hobby, to treat it like the stock market, for example. But as a buddy of mine who runs a hedge fund and makes ludicrous millions once told me, and this was after years of knowing about the card hobby from me-- when you have collectors with so many different motivations, which include things like nostalgia and competition, when you have so few points of data, which include cards that sell once a year or much less often, when each card itself is unique in terms of eye appeal despite the grade, and when you have so many different budgets, it's downright impossible to codify the baseball card hobby on any level.
<< <i> I know for fact if Rob had seen it he would have bid much higher and it would have had a higher final selling price.
You're illustrating my point--if Rob had seen it and set his own snipe, he might have won the card.
That is yet another advantage to sniping--if you see an auction, you don't even have to put in a "placement bid" to watch it--you can set your snipe at the price you feel comfortable with and go on with your life and when the auction ends, the snipe will be entered and no one has an opportunity to chip bid or bump you up or reconsider how much they really want to spend to win, and you may come out on top. Surely even you can understand that advantage? >>
I think the one major advantage of sniping would be time management. For any number of reasons you might not be available to bid or want to even follow an auction. An automatic bid would certainly be good for this.
If Rob decided to snipe and Roger in this case sniped there bids meet at higher prices and there is no costs savings. They are now the market clearing price for this item at just an elevated number.
The number of bidders has more to do with the outcome then the timing of the bids.
No one else bids except for my snipe at 3 seconds to go, but I was still below that top bidder. My snipe pushed him up into what the next grade sells for.
I can say with 100% certainty that had I placed my snipe as a manual bid with enough time (be it thirty seconds or thirty minutes) left to bid more, my competitive instincts and spectacular lack of self control (this is not a good trait) would have taken hold of the situation, and I would have gone at it with this other guy for quite a bit more money.
Exactly, so in this case sniping saved you money, not by preventing other bidders from chip-bidding or bumping up your bid, but by restricting you from spending more than the amount you decided the card was worth. That was one of my earlier points about bidding vs sniping--human beings are competitive by nature and will continue to raise their manual bids just to outbid the other bidder, not because they necessarily thought the item was worth the excess amount.
Now, if you can't objectively decide what the max amount you want to spend for an item is, sniping is not going to be as effective a tool, unless, as you said, you "revise" your snipe amount to a higher amount.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>[I adjust my snipe accordingly, raising it to just a hair beneath the next grade's average and several increments above the current top bid.
No one else bids except for my snipe at 3 seconds to go, but I was still below that top bidder. My snipe pushed him up into what the next grade sells for.
I can say with 100% certainty that had I placed my snipe as a manual bid with enough time (be it thirty seconds or thirty minutes) left to bid more, my competitive instincts and spectacular lack of self control (this is not a good trait) would have taken hold of the situation, and I would have gone at it with this other guy for quite a bit more money.
Exactly, so in this case sniping saved you money, not by preventing other bidders from chip-bidding or bumping up your bid, but by restricting you from spending more than the amount you decided the card was worth. That was one of my earlier points about bidding vs sniping--human beings are competitive by nature and will continue to raise their manual bids just to outbid the other bidder, not because they necessarily thought the item was worth the excess amount.
Now, if you can't objectively decide what the max amount you want to spend for an item is, sniping is not going to be as effective a tool, unless, as you said, you "revise" your snipe amount to a higher amount. >>
Grote do you always know how much you want to spend on a card?
I don't.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"