<< <i>I'm going to officially change my stance on sniping and adopt Dpecks perspective. From now on, rather than snipe a card, I will place my bid on day 3 on the auction. I feel with this method, I will protect myself from shill bids and emotional bidders. >>
Obviously you are being sarcastic. That being said the bidders who get shilled the hardest are the snipe bidders. With so many auctions not being paid for just launch a nuclear snipe and hope to nail another sniper in the air.
If you do great and hope they pay and if not try it again.
Almost all snipes are much higher then the next official bid increment leaving the bid incredibly exposed if another one comes in. Knowing the motivation of that bid is impossible.
I know of certain buyers who will place a bid that they think no one else could begin to imagine and guess what someone else does the same thing too.
What do you have? A record selling price that the buyer was hoping to not have to pay come true.
Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction?
In my experience, whenever I have bid early on ebay auctions, all it does is give people a chance to hack away at my bid, and even sometimes retract when they go over it, then replace a bid just under it. It also fosters a climate in which I can get too competitive and pay more than I wanted to, when I was objectively valuing the card.
The times I really want a card and set a snipe that is a new record price, I can't control if another guy out there wants it as badly and does the same thing. In that case, yes, our snipes will collide and create a big price.
But what I know for sure is that if I put that big max bid in early and let shillers and other bidders peck away at it, until it rises up, that would be showing that other hypothetical big bidder I exist and am serious. I'd thus be giving a competitor valuable information that would enable him to win the card. An early bid is something tangible that I am putting out there, for my competition to in essence play with any number of ways.
At least with sniping, I stay out of emotional competitive bidding and know I win it at the price I objectively valued it, or I don't win it at all. But this is not to proselytize; let every collector not only go after whatever they want but take their own preferred approach as well. Just saying how one guy sees it.
And I'd like to add the above describes ebay bidding in an expiring-time auction. In an AH, for me, it becomes about occupying strategic slots early, and forcing others to go into the zone above.
<< <i>[I adjust my snipe accordingly, raising it to just a hair beneath the next grade's average and several increments above the current top bid.
No one else bids except for my snipe at 3 seconds to go, but I was still below that top bidder. My snipe pushed him up into what the next grade sells for.
I can say with 100% certainty that had I placed my snipe as a manual bid with enough time (be it thirty seconds or thirty minutes) left to bid more, my competitive instincts and spectacular lack of self control (this is not a good trait) would have taken hold of the situation, and I would have gone at it with this other guy for quite a bit more money.
Exactly, so in this case sniping saved you money, not by preventing other bidders from chip-bidding or bumping up your bid, but by restricting you from spending more than the amount you decided the card was worth. That was one of my earlier points about bidding vs sniping--human beings are competitive by nature and will continue to raise their manual bids just to outbid the other bidder, not because they necessarily thought the item was worth the excess amount.
Now, if you can't objectively decide what the max amount you want to spend for an item is, sniping is not going to be as effective a tool, unless, as you said, you "revise" your snipe amount to a higher amount. >>
Grote do you always know how much you want to spend on a card?
I don't. >>
Yes, I do, as a matter of fact~said amount is what I set my snipe for.
BBCemporium and Matty sum it up pretty well, too.
You just keep doing what you're doing, dpeck, if that's what works for you, great. Carry on..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>In my experience, whenever I have bid early on ebay auctions, all it does is give people a chance to hack away at my bid, and even sometimes retract when they go over it, then replace a bid just under it. It also fosters a climate in which I can get too competitive and pay more than I wanted to, when I was objectively valuing the card.
The times I really want a card and set a snipe that is a new record price, I can't control if another guy out there wants it as badly and does the same thing. In that case, yes, our snipes will collide and create a big price.
But what I know for sure is that if I put that big max bid in early and let shillers and other bidders peck away at it, until it rises up, that would be showing that other hypothetical big bidder I exist and am serious. I'd thus be giving a competitor valuable information that would enable him to win the card. An early bid is something tangible that I am putting out there, for my competition to in essence play with any number of ways.
At least with sniping, I stay out of emotional competitive bidding and know I win it at the price I objectively valued it, or I don't win it at all. But this is not to proselytize; let every collector not only go after whatever they want but take their own preferred approach as well. Just saying how one guy sees it.
And I'd like to add the above describes ebay bidding in an expiring-time auction. In an AH, for me, it becomes about occupying strategic slots early, and forcing others to go into the zone above. >>
+1
Unless I won't have my phone on me or be near a PC when an auction ends, I NEVER bid early. As Matt stated, it only shows your hand and I don't think anything good comes of it. I haven't but there are times I want to contact another bidder and ask them "Why the heck are you bidding so early?!" Usually I do my manual bids around 5 secs, even if I think no one has even looked at the auction. I have never used a snipe program but would like its usefuness if I'm away. Can anyone recommend a good snipe program?
<< <i>I'm trying to find out where the AUTO is. Might as well put '24 kt gold' and 'Lamborghini' in the title as well. >>
+1. That's the same thing I was trying to figure out when I checked the link. What's up with the key word spam? >>
Couldn't hurt to add eBay 1/1 as well. >>
Don't forget CENTERED.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
A lot of the stuff I bid on doesn't sell for much more than typical opening bid. There is an advantage to bidding early on those cards, because no one (including me) may want to go the extra 25 or 50 cents on the card.
And as for not knowing how much you want to spend on a card, I ran across some oddball PSA cards recently from a set I uad never heard of. I didn't spend the time to research it; I just threw in bids that I knew weren't terribly risky because they were essentially grading fee bids. As it turns out, I won everything I bid on but the HOFer cards. I still have no idea about this set or what the cards are worth.
If you don't care what you pay for a card I will contest sniping is a great strategy. Here is an example of that. The big dog of this genre wins every card he goes after. Why? Because he throws in a nuclear snipe on every one and has unlimited resources.
Once again the final two bids determine the outcome and you guessed it they are both snipes. The under bidder was 36.69% above the pack.
None of the early bids mattered. They were not going to distort the outcome because they had no plans to spend as much as the top two bidders.
Another great example. The winning bidder placed his bid within two hours of the auction close and was the top bid heading into the final seconds for that time frame at $205. Once again a snipe comes in and doubles the price on the close. 100% people. We are not talking fractions.
If these examples don't make you go hmmm. Then so be it.
Dpeck, either you are being intentionally obtuse at this point or just dense. In either case, you are still as mistaken as you were when this thread started, but as I said earlier, you just let everyone else keep sniping and keep bidding early and often. Sellers, you know, love that kind of bidding strategy.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
While it is impossible to prove either way in any single situation, think about it like this:
Either:
a) Bidding is fixed. The market works perfectly. Each bidder will pay what they think a card is worth. Sniping has no *positive* effect, because at the end of the day, all highest bids are received prior to the hammer. But, sniping has no negative effect, because the market works under this theory and every bidder snipes at the amount they are willing to pay and no more.
or
b) Bidding is not fixed. Some individuals bid what they want to pay, but others just "want the card" and will bid what it takes to get the card (defined relatively to other bidders), within reason. For such "variable bidders", they might look at a card and, at first, say "I will bid up to $50". Then, after getting outbid, after staring at the card sitting at $51, will say "well, I just want the card, what is $5 anyway?" and bump it up to $55. As has been argued by others, sniping protects against variable bidders, because the snipe to $51 comes late enough in the process that the variable bidder does not have time to increase their bid to $55, even if they wanted to. "I lost by only a dollar, ughh!", they say (as we have heard on here many times). Not realizing that they actually lost by *at least* a dollar and probably a lot more.
In one scenario, sniping doesn't help, but also doesn't hurt. In another scenario, sniping helps. Since we cannot know (at least most of the time) what strategy our competitors use to bid, it is useful to think in terms of probability. On average, sniping saves money against the "field" of opposing bidders.
Another way of saying it: clearly, there are situations which, even if rare, cause sniping to save money. To prove that it does not (dpeck, others) should identify a situation where it COSTS money to negate that -- not just situations where it doesn't help.
<< <i>Dpeck, either you are being intentionally obtuse at this point or just dense. In either case, you are still as mistaken as you were when this thread started, but as I said earlier, you just let everyone else keep sniping and keep bidding early and often. Sellers, you know, love that kind of bidding strategy. >>
The honest answer is I am baffled that every single example I have given has been completely discounted and not one logical rebuttal has been given to refute the data I have provided.
Final hammer prices on most auctions as I have said are determined by the final bids. Not the early one's. I have tried all bidding strategies at this point and bid on thousands of cards and followed thousands more.
Final hammer prices on most auctions as I have said are determined by the final bids. Not the early one's
You are correct in this statement, assuming no snipes, either manual or automatic come in.
And that is the whole point of sniping~it leaves other bidders no chance to reconsider raising their manual bids or "chip bidding up" your max bid. Does this mean that another bidder won't set another snipe bumping the price? Of course not. No one is claiming that sniping SUPPRESSES bids (though it can suppress other snipes if they aren't set for at least one increment higher than the previous snipe). Even if sniping, you are (assuming you win) going to still pay one increment or a fraction thereof of what the next bidder, whether sniping or not, was willing to pay.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck, either you are being intentionally obtuse at this point or just dense. In either case, you are still as mistaken as you were when this thread started, but as I said earlier, you just let everyone else keep sniping and keep bidding early and often. Sellers, you know, love that kind of bidding strategy. >>
The honest answer is I am baffled that every single example I have given has been completely discounted and not one logical rebuttal has been given to refute the data I have provided.
Final hammer prices on most auctions as I have said are determined by the final bids. Not the early one's. I have tried all bidding strategies at this point and bid on thousands of cards and followed thousands more.
We will just agree to disagree. >>
I've looked at all your "examples" and still have no idea what point you're trying to make. It's not that your examples are being discounted, it's that NONE of them prove that sniping is a BAD thing. Show us examples of auctions where the buyer used a snipe and by doing so, it cost him/her MORE than it would have if they had instead, placed that same bid amount 3 hours after that auction started? Has anyone said that sniping ALWAYS wins the auction and ALWAYS gets you a lower price than not sniping? I think you may have a much easier time convincing the masses if you can show where sniping hurts the bidder MORE often than NOT sniping. Until then, your examples are showing us nothing more than those times when sniping happen to not win the auction…not that sniping was a mistake, or that they spent more because they sniped.
Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card?
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card? >>
Let's say it is a medium VCP averagish bid. Bottom line, it is the most I'm willing to pay for it.
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card? >>
Let's say it is a medium VCP averagish bid. Bottom line, it is the most I'm willing to pay for it. >>
Go for it and hope it goes off. For all we know the bidding may take the card higher then your snipe prior to the close.
Someone placing a mid level bid is not bidding to win in most cases and is just looking for a good deal. I doubt you will be upset if you lose this card.
Obviously you can set your snipe program to fire it off and come back at the conclusion of the auction and see how you do.
I see no downside to the strategy here but I also think the card will find its price regardless.
A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Dpeck, I win a lot of cards at VCP average or lower with my bidding. Technically, if you are bidding VCP average, you should win more than half of the auctions you snipe, as the VCP average is driven up by BINS. I don't think anyone here is advocating a nuclear snipe as you keep referring to or claiming that snipes will guarantee a low price. The claim that is being made is that if you know you are going to bid X dollars on a card, there is absolutely ZERO reason to place that bid until the final seconds.
<< <i>A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping. >>
Grote you crack me up. I could say anything and you would find a way to disagree.
<< <i>A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping. >>
Grote you crack me up. I could say anything and you would find a way to disagree. >>
Actually, I agreed with one of your statements in the post prior to the last one, but when you don't make sense and keep throwing out meaningless examples in an attempt to state your case, I'm going to refute that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck, I win a lot of cards at VCP average or lower with my bidding. Technically, if you are bidding VCP average, you should win more than half of the auctions you snipe, as the VCP average is driven up by BINS. I don't think anyone here is advocating a nuclear snipe as you keep referring to or claiming that snipes will guarantee a low price. The claim that is being made is that if you know you are going to bid X dollars on a card, there is absolutely ZERO reason to place that bid until the final seconds. >>
Stop making sense, now. There's no place for sound logic in this debate.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I have always sniped and will continue to snipe as I feel this is the most effective way to bid on eBay. Much respect to Dpeck as a collector, forum member, and especially as a person, but I feel he's wrong on his sniping stance. Still, I wondered if anyone else did any real studies on the effects of sniping vs. not sniping, and, sure enough, a quick google search turned up this PDF from 2006.
Now, the study is from 2006, and it doesn't focus on card auctions (they used a control group of new DVD auctions). Still, even they came to the conclusion that sniping is the best way to go if a) you want to win the auction, and b) you'd like to win it at the lowest price possible, all things considered.
They actually went into too much depth, in my opinion, as some of the statistical stuff goes WAY over my head. From the study:
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower. Nevertheless, the benefits of sniping are significant.
At the end of the article, the author gives multiple examples, with bidding histories, explaining the benefits of sniping. I know I'm preaching mostly to the choir here, but just thought it was an interesting study regardless.
<< <i>I have always sniped and will continue to snipe as I feel this is the most effective way to bid on eBay. Much respect to Dpeck as a collector, forum member, and especially as a person, but I feel he's wrong on his sniping stance. Still, I wondered if anyone else did any real studies on the effects of sniping vs. not sniping, and, sure enough, a quick google search turned up this PDF from 2006.
Now, the study is from 2006, and it doesn't focus on card auctions (they used a control group of new DVD auctions). Still, even they came to the conclusion that sniping is the best way to go if a) you want to win the auction, and b) you'd like to win it at the lowest price possible, all things considered.
They actually went into too much depth, in my opinion, as some of the statistical stuff goes WAY over my head. From the study:
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower. Nevertheless, the benefits of sniping are significant.
At the end of the article, the author gives multiple examples, with bidding histories, explaining the benefits of sniping. I know I'm preaching mostly to the choir here, but just thought it was an interesting study regardless. >>
First, thank you for the compliments. I have read many of your posts and it is appreciated.
From the article.
While the practice of sniping has been documented and rationals proposed, surprisingly it has not been empirically verified whether sniping leads to any improvement in payoffs.
This article really has no relevance to trading cards. They are attempting to rationalize activity associated with newly released DVD's. That being said they quote that there is no empirical evidence to suggest any advantage and that is true.
My background is in economics. I know when I first came here it was doubted but after four years of the same David Peck it is clear I understand economics.
The quote I posted above says it all. This is not a contest of smarts. It is just reality. Perhaps one day a think tank will simply prove what I am saying.
EBAY auctions have so many random outcomes. If you don't believe me just put a ton of them on your watch list and monitor them from start to finish.
You may understand economics, dpeck (and if we're not aware, you'll be sure to remind us), but you still don't understand the benefits of sniping. We don't need a think tank to state the obvious, LOL..
One can track a hundred auctions. But if the person tracking the auctions is incapable of comprehending what should be rather obvious, not much benefit will be derived therefrom..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
He cannot because there are none. But he does understand the housing market, which is quite similar, apparently, LOL..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Dude your icon is nuts lolol!!! >>
Yeah, I love his icon and that moving bug icon, I think psychump has among others. >>
Tom (tsalems) ill-shaven baby was hands down the most creepy, LOL..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
Read the quote. >>
The quote and the study it was based on is as meaningless as the article itself. A study on sniping using DVDs as the category and published back in 2006? You can't be serious, LOL!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Nevertheless, the benefits of sniping are significant
And as irrelevant as the article may be, the above statement is a quote taken from said article..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower
But I guess you skipped that part..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
This assumes a nuclear bid. >>
We have been in a bull market for the entire four years I have been on the boards.
My wrestling cards had no where to go but up. That was an easy call.
The fact that so many baseball cards exploded was a tougher call.
You can't predict prices with any certainty over the long run.
Heck you collect Bo Jackson. His cards were in the basement and then the 30/30 special came out and they exploded. No one could have predicted that move.
Dpeck, I would suggest seriously reading some of the posts by members who took the time to illustrate exactly why sniping is a beneficial method to bidding on an auction. My guess is that you are so fixed in your opinion that you don't permit yourself to even consider other possibilities, which is a rather narrow-minded way to approach the issue.
But then again, it probably wouldn't matter, as you have failed to offer any credible disadvantage to sniping while on the other side multiple instances of why sniping is a benefit have been offered up. If this were a debate, you'd be off the lectern by now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
This assumes a nuclear bid. >>
We have been in a bull market for the entire four years I have been on the boards.
My wrestling cards had no where to go but up. That was an easy call.
The fact that so many baseball cards exploded was a tougher call.
You can't predict prices with any certainty over the long run.
Heck you collect Bo Jackson. His cards were in the basement and then the 30/30 special came out and they exploded. No one could have predicted that move. >>
True that I couldn't have predicted they'd release such a compelling documentary, however, an upturn in card prices is a fairly logical conclusion once you have that. LOL.
Going back to your point above, why wouldn't squatting leave you equally exposed to a shiller? If your bid was the same in either case it's a wash. That's what we're saying basically. Sniping is either a wash in some cases or an advantage in others, no downside.
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
Read the quote. >>
The quote and the study it was based on is as meaningless as the article itself. A study on sniping using DVDs as the category and published back in 2006? You can't be serious, LOL!! >>
It was clear in my statement that the connection to trading cards was extremely weak but the practice of snipe bidding failed to confirm any advantage.
If it defies economic logic it should apply to trading cards too and it doesn't.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
Are you saying sniping exposes you to shills more than other methods? If so, how? Sorry if I missed an earlier explanation.
What do you mean by #2? Exposed to what?
#3 is not a negative to sniping. There are certainly more examples of no inspires winning at record prices than steals as well and is not relevant. >>
The easiest way to get shilled is through a snipe bid. Plain and simple.
Most think that the inching up method that some shills use is the most damaging but the real one is the silent snipe at much higher prices that nails another snipe bidder.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
Are you saying sniping exposes you to shills more than other methods? If so, how? Sorry if I missed an earlier explanation.
What do you mean by #2? Exposed to what?
#3 is not a negative to sniping. There are certainly more examples of no inspires winning at record prices than steals as well and is not relevant. >>
The easiest way to get shilled is through a snipe bid. Plain and simple.
Most think that the inching up method that some shills use is the most damaging but the real one is the silent snipe at much higher prices that nails another snipe bidder. >>
How? If you squat bid at the same top price, that snipe is still coming. BOOM!
Comments
<< <i>I'm going to officially change my stance on sniping and adopt Dpecks perspective. From now on, rather than snipe a card, I will place my bid on day 3 on the auction. I feel with this method, I will protect myself from shill bids and emotional bidders. >>
Obviously you are being sarcastic. That being said the bidders who get shilled the hardest are the snipe bidders. With so many auctions not being paid for just launch a nuclear snipe and hope to nail another sniper in the air.
If you do great and hope they pay and if not try it again.
Almost all snipes are much higher then the next official bid increment leaving the bid incredibly exposed if another one comes in. Knowing the motivation of that bid is impossible.
I know of certain buyers who will place a bid that they think no one else could begin to imagine and guess what someone else does the same thing too.
What do you have? A record selling price that the buyer was hoping to not have to pay come true.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
The times I really want a card and set a snipe that is a new record price, I can't control if another guy out there wants it as badly and does the same thing. In that case, yes, our snipes will collide and create a big price.
But what I know for sure is that if I put that big max bid in early and let shillers and other bidders peck away at it, until it rises up, that would be showing that other hypothetical big bidder I exist and am serious. I'd thus be giving a competitor valuable information that would enable him to win the card. An early bid is something tangible that I am putting out there, for my competition to in essence play with any number of ways.
At least with sniping, I stay out of emotional competitive bidding and know I win it at the price I objectively valued it, or I don't win it at all. But this is not to proselytize; let every collector not only go after whatever they want but take their own preferred approach as well. Just saying how one guy sees it.
And I'd like to add the above describes ebay bidding in an expiring-time auction. In an AH, for me, it becomes about occupying strategic slots early, and forcing others to go into the zone above.
<< <i>
<< <i>[I adjust my snipe accordingly, raising it to just a hair beneath the next grade's average and several increments above the current top bid.
No one else bids except for my snipe at 3 seconds to go, but I was still below that top bidder. My snipe pushed him up into what the next grade sells for.
I can say with 100% certainty that had I placed my snipe as a manual bid with enough time (be it thirty seconds or thirty minutes) left to bid more, my competitive instincts and spectacular lack of self control (this is not a good trait) would have taken hold of the situation, and I would have gone at it with this other guy for quite a bit more money.
Exactly, so in this case sniping saved you money, not by preventing other bidders from chip-bidding or bumping up your bid, but by restricting you from spending more than the amount you decided the card was worth. That was one of my earlier points about bidding vs sniping--human beings are competitive by nature and will continue to raise their manual bids just to outbid the other bidder, not because they necessarily thought the item was worth the excess amount.
Now, if you can't objectively decide what the max amount you want to spend for an item is, sniping is not going to be as effective a tool, unless, as you said, you "revise" your snipe amount to a higher amount. >>
Grote do you always know how much you want to spend on a card?
I don't. >>
Yes, I do, as a matter of fact~said amount is what I set my snipe for.
BBCemporium and Matty sum it up pretty well, too.
You just keep doing what you're doing, dpeck, if that's what works for you, great. Carry on..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>In my experience, whenever I have bid early on ebay auctions, all it does is give people a chance to hack away at my bid, and even sometimes retract when they go over it, then replace a bid just under it. It also fosters a climate in which I can get too competitive and pay more than I wanted to, when I was objectively valuing the card.
The times I really want a card and set a snipe that is a new record price, I can't control if another guy out there wants it as badly and does the same thing. In that case, yes, our snipes will collide and create a big price.
But what I know for sure is that if I put that big max bid in early and let shillers and other bidders peck away at it, until it rises up, that would be showing that other hypothetical big bidder I exist and am serious. I'd thus be giving a competitor valuable information that would enable him to win the card. An early bid is something tangible that I am putting out there, for my competition to in essence play with any number of ways.
At least with sniping, I stay out of emotional competitive bidding and know I win it at the price I objectively valued it, or I don't win it at all. But this is not to proselytize; let every collector not only go after whatever they want but take their own preferred approach as well. Just saying how one guy sees it.
And I'd like to add the above describes ebay bidding in an expiring-time auction. In an AH, for me, it becomes about occupying strategic slots early, and forcing others to go into the zone above. >>
+1
Unless I won't have my phone on me or be near a PC when an auction ends, I NEVER bid early. As Matt stated, it only shows your hand and I don't think anything good comes of it. I haven't but there are times I want to contact another bidder and ask them "Why the heck are you bidding so early?!" Usually I do my manual bids around 5 secs, even if I think no one has even looked at the auction. I have never used a snipe program but would like its usefuness if I'm away. Can anyone recommend a good snipe program?
<< <i>In a parallel universe where I paid more, I'd be happier than I am now. >>
Woah, this is getting deep.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm trying to find out where the AUTO is. Might as well put '24 kt gold' and 'Lamborghini' in the title as well. >>
+1. That's the same thing I was trying to figure out when I checked the link. What's up with the key word spam? >>
Couldn't hurt to add eBay 1/1 as well.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm trying to find out where the AUTO is. Might as well put '24 kt gold' and 'Lamborghini' in the title as well. >>
+1. That's the same thing I was trying to figure out when I checked the link. What's up with the key word spam? >>
Couldn't hurt to add eBay 1/1 as well. >>
Don't forget CENTERED.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I use esnipe. It has never failed me in many years of use now. >>
Sent you a PM.
<< <i>Can anyone recommend a good snipe program? >>
I use gavelsnipe. It has never failed to place a bid for me.
And as for not knowing how much you want to spend on a card, I ran across some oddball PSA cards recently from a set I uad never heard of. I didn't spend the time to research it; I just threw in bids that I knew weren't terribly risky because they were essentially grading fee bids. As it turns out, I won everything I bid on but the HOFer cards. I still have no idea about this set or what the cards are worth.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
If you don't care what you pay for a card I will contest sniping is a great strategy. Here is an example of that. The big dog of this genre wins every card he goes after. Why? Because he throws in a nuclear snipe on every one and has unlimited resources.
Once again the final two bids determine the outcome and you guessed it they are both snipes. The under bidder was 36.69% above the pack.
None of the early bids mattered. They were not going to distort the outcome because they had no plans to spend as much as the top two bidders.
Another great example. The winning bidder placed his bid within two hours of the auction close and was the top bid heading into the final seconds for that time frame at $205. Once again a snipe comes in and doubles the price on the close. 100% people. We are not talking fractions.
If these examples don't make you go hmmm. Then so be it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
While it is impossible to prove either way in any single situation, think about it like this:
Either:
a) Bidding is fixed. The market works perfectly. Each bidder will pay what they think a card is worth. Sniping has no *positive* effect, because at the end of the day, all highest bids are received prior to the hammer. But, sniping has no negative effect, because the market works under this theory and every bidder snipes at the amount they are willing to pay and no more.
or
b) Bidding is not fixed. Some individuals bid what they want to pay, but others just "want the card" and will bid what it takes to get the card (defined relatively to other bidders), within reason. For such "variable bidders", they might look at a card and, at first, say "I will bid up to $50". Then, after getting outbid, after staring at the card sitting at $51, will say "well, I just want the card, what is $5 anyway?" and bump it up to $55. As has been argued by others, sniping protects against variable bidders, because the snipe to $51 comes late enough in the process that the variable bidder does not have time to increase their bid to $55, even if they wanted to. "I lost by only a dollar, ughh!", they say (as we have heard on here many times). Not realizing that they actually lost by *at least* a dollar and probably a lot more.
In one scenario, sniping doesn't help, but also doesn't hurt. In another scenario, sniping helps. Since we cannot know (at least most of the time) what strategy our competitors use to bid, it is useful to think in terms of probability. On average, sniping saves money against the "field" of opposing bidders.
Another way of saying it: clearly, there are situations which, even if rare, cause sniping to save money. To prove that it does not (dpeck, others) should identify a situation where it COSTS money to negate that -- not just situations where it doesn't help.
<< <i>Dpeck, either you are being intentionally obtuse at this point or just dense. In either case, you are still as mistaken as you were when this thread started, but as I said earlier, you just let everyone else keep sniping and keep bidding early and often. Sellers, you know, love that kind of bidding strategy. >>
The honest answer is I am baffled that every single example I have given has been completely discounted and not one logical rebuttal has been given to refute the data I have provided.
Final hammer prices on most auctions as I have said are determined by the final bids. Not the early one's. I have tried all bidding strategies at this point and bid on thousands of cards and followed thousands more.
We will just agree to disagree.
You are correct in this statement, assuming no snipes, either manual or automatic come in.
And that is the whole point of sniping~it leaves other bidders no chance to reconsider raising their manual bids or "chip bidding up" your max bid. Does this mean that another bidder won't set another snipe bumping the price? Of course not. No one is claiming that sniping SUPPRESSES bids (though it can suppress other snipes if they aren't set for at least one increment higher than the previous snipe). Even if sniping, you are (assuming you win) going to still pay one increment or a fraction thereof of what the next bidder, whether sniping or not, was willing to pay.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck, either you are being intentionally obtuse at this point or just dense. In either case, you are still as mistaken as you were when this thread started, but as I said earlier, you just let everyone else keep sniping and keep bidding early and often. Sellers, you know, love that kind of bidding strategy. >>
The honest answer is I am baffled that every single example I have given has been completely discounted and not one logical rebuttal has been given to refute the data I have provided.
Final hammer prices on most auctions as I have said are determined by the final bids. Not the early one's. I have tried all bidding strategies at this point and bid on thousands of cards and followed thousands more.
We will just agree to disagree. >>
I've looked at all your "examples" and still have no idea what point you're trying to make. It's not that your examples are being discounted, it's that NONE of them prove that sniping is a BAD thing. Show us examples of auctions where the buyer used a snipe and by doing so, it cost him/her MORE than it would have if they had instead, placed that same bid amount 3 hours after that auction started? Has anyone said that sniping ALWAYS wins the auction and ALWAYS gets you a lower price than not sniping? I think you may have a much easier time convincing the masses if you can show where sniping hurts the bidder MORE often than NOT sniping. Until then, your examples are showing us nothing more than those times when sniping happen to not win the auction…not that sniping was a mistake, or that they spent more because they sniped.
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card?
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card? >>
Let's say it is a medium VCP averagish bid. Bottom line, it is the most I'm willing to pay for it.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck, you have yet to answer my earlier question:
"Dpeck, I was just ribbing you, but seriously - when I bid on a card, I know exactly how much I'm willing to pay for it. If there is a card that I'm willing to bid $100 on, please give me one logical reason why I wouldn't put in a snipe for that amount vs placing that bid earlier on in the auction? "
I would really like to hear an answer on this. >>
Is $100 a low bid, a medium bid, a high bid or an outlier bid for this card? >>
Let's say it is a medium VCP averagish bid. Bottom line, it is the most I'm willing to pay for it. >>
Go for it and hope it goes off. For all we know the bidding may take the card higher then your snipe prior to the close.
Someone placing a mid level bid is not bidding to win in most cases and is just looking for a good deal. I doubt you will be upset if you lose this card.
Obviously you can set your snipe program to fire it off and come back at the conclusion of the auction and see how you do.
I see no downside to the strategy here but I also think the card will find its price regardless.
A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
<< <i>A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping. >>
Grote you crack me up. I could say anything and you would find a way to disagree.
<< <i>
<< <i>A year and a half ago I started a thread about Ozzie Smith's PSA 9 rookie. The VCP at the time was around $400. The card exploded with a few examples surpassing a $1,000. No one could have predicted that. You could have kept bidding on that card in a medium VCP average and lost every time since that thread was started and had zero impact on the outcome no matter when the bid was placed.
Once again, apples and oranges, as sniping or not sniping has absolutely nothing to do with how much you decide to bid on a card. You started that thread because you saw an Ozzie Smith RC go for a large premium. Anyone who follows graded cards could have started a thread like that, but again it has nothing to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of sniping. >>
Grote you crack me up. I could say anything and you would find a way to disagree. >>
Actually, I agreed with one of your statements in the post prior to the last one, but when you don't make sense and keep throwing out meaningless examples in an attempt to state your case, I'm going to refute that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck, I win a lot of cards at VCP average or lower with my bidding. Technically, if you are bidding VCP average, you should win more than half of the auctions you snipe, as the VCP average is driven up by BINS. I don't think anyone here is advocating a nuclear snipe as you keep referring to or claiming that snipes will guarantee a low price. The claim that is being made is that if you know you are going to bid X dollars on a card, there is absolutely ZERO reason to place that bid until the final seconds. >>
Stop making sense, now. There's no place for sound logic in this debate.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Link to study: Sniping vs. Squatting
Now, the study is from 2006, and it doesn't focus on card auctions (they used a control group of new DVD auctions). Still, even they came to the conclusion that sniping is the best way to go if a) you want to win the auction, and b) you'd like to win it at the lowest price possible, all things considered.
They actually went into too much depth, in my opinion, as some of the statistical stuff goes WAY over my head.
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions
with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower. Nevertheless, the benefits of sniping are significant.
At the end of the article, the author gives multiple examples, with bidding histories, explaining the benefits of sniping. I know I'm preaching mostly to the choir here, but just thought it was an interesting study regardless.
<< <i>I have always sniped and will continue to snipe as I feel this is the most effective way to bid on eBay. Much respect to Dpeck as a collector, forum member, and especially as a person, but I feel he's wrong on his sniping stance. Still, I wondered if anyone else did any real studies on the effects of sniping vs. not sniping, and, sure enough, a quick google search turned up this PDF from 2006.
Link to study: Sniping vs. Squatting
Now, the study is from 2006, and it doesn't focus on card auctions (they used a control group of new DVD auctions). Still, even they came to the conclusion that sniping is the best way to go if a) you want to win the auction, and b) you'd like to win it at the lowest price possible, all things considered.
They actually went into too much depth, in my opinion, as some of the statistical stuff goes WAY over my head.
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions
with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower. Nevertheless, the benefits of sniping are significant.
At the end of the article, the author gives multiple examples, with bidding histories, explaining the benefits of sniping. I know I'm preaching mostly to the choir here, but just thought it was an interesting study regardless. >>
First, thank you for the compliments. I have read many of your posts and it is appreciated.
From the article.
While the practice of sniping has been documented and rationals proposed, surprisingly it has not been empirically verified whether sniping leads to any improvement in payoffs.
Article
This article really has no relevance to trading cards. They are attempting to rationalize activity associated with newly released DVD's. That being said they quote that there is no empirical evidence to suggest any advantage and that is true.
My background is in economics. I know when I first came here it was doubted but after four years of the same David Peck it is clear I understand economics.
The quote I posted above says it all. This is not a contest of smarts. It is just reality. Perhaps one day a think tank will simply prove what I am saying.
EBAY auctions have so many random outcomes. If you don't believe me just put a ton of them on your watch list and monitor them from start to finish.
One can track a hundred auctions. But if the person tracking the auctions is incapable of comprehending what should be rather obvious, not much benefit will be derived therefrom..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Dude your icon is nuts lolol!!!
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
He cannot because there are none. But he does understand the housing market, which is quite similar, apparently, LOL..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Dude your icon is nuts lolol!!! >>
Yeah, I love his icon and that moving bug icon, I think psychump has among others.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
This assumes a nuclear bid.
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
Read the quote.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Dude your icon is nuts lolol!!! >>
Yeah, I love his icon and that moving bug icon, I think psychump has among others. >>
Tom (tsalems) ill-shaven baby was hands down the most creepy, LOL..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
Read the quote. >>
The quote and the study it was based on is as meaningless as the article itself. A study on sniping using DVDs as the category and published back in 2006? You can't be serious, LOL!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
And as irrelevant as the article may be, the above statement is a quote taken from said article..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
We find that sniping increases the probability of winning and the increase is statistically significant for all specifications. Between two identical auctions where we squat in one auction and snipe in the other, our probability of winning increased by 9% in the auction where we sniped. When we look at auctions with different levels of bids by us separately, we find that the impact of sniping is smaller in auctions where our bid was expected to win around 90% of times (and ended up winning 93% of times) than the auctions
with lower valuations. This makes sense because, as we won most of these auction with either strategies, the relative benefit of sniping in winning the auction was lower
But I guess you skipped that part..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
This assumes a nuclear bid. >>
We have been in a bull market for the entire four years I have been on the boards.
My wrestling cards had no where to go but up. That was an easy call.
The fact that so many baseball cards exploded was a tougher call.
You can't predict prices with any certainty over the long run.
Heck you collect Bo Jackson. His cards were in the basement and then the 30/30 special came out and they exploded. No one could have predicted that move.
But then again, it probably wouldn't matter, as you have failed to offer any credible disadvantage to sniping while on the other side multiple instances of why sniping is a benefit have been offered up. If this were a debate, you'd be off the lectern by now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
This assumes a nuclear bid. >>
We have been in a bull market for the entire four years I have been on the boards.
My wrestling cards had no where to go but up. That was an easy call.
The fact that so many baseball cards exploded was a tougher call.
You can't predict prices with any certainty over the long run.
Heck you collect Bo Jackson. His cards were in the basement and then the 30/30 special came out and they exploded. No one could have predicted that move. >>
True that I couldn't have predicted they'd release such a compelling documentary, however, an upturn in card prices is a fairly logical conclusion once you have that. LOL.
Going back to your point above, why wouldn't squatting leave you equally exposed to a shiller? If your bid was the same in either case it's a wash. That's what we're saying basically. Sniping is either a wash in some cases or an advantage in others, no downside.
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<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
Are you saying sniping exposes you to shills more than other methods? If so, how? Sorry if I missed an earlier explanation.
What do you mean by #2? Exposed to what?
#3 is not a negative to sniping. There are certainly more examples of non snipes winning at record prices than steals as well and is not relevant.
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<< <i>
<< <i>I will give dpeck credit though--he is unwavering in his position, no matter what the circumstances are, and I admire that conviction, even if I wholeheartedly disagree with it. >>
The article that was supposed to refute my claims confirmed it.
Read the quote. >>
The quote and the study it was based on is as meaningless as the article itself. A study on sniping using DVDs as the category and published back in 2006? You can't be serious, LOL!! >>
It was clear in my statement that the connection to trading cards was extremely weak but the practice of snipe bidding failed to confirm any advantage.
If it defies economic logic it should apply to trading cards too and it doesn't.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
Are you saying sniping exposes you to shills more than other methods? If so, how? Sorry if I missed an earlier explanation.
What do you mean by #2? Exposed to what?
#3 is not a negative to sniping. There are certainly more examples of no inspires winning at record prices than steals as well and is not relevant. >>
The easiest way to get shilled is through a snipe bid. Plain and simple.
Most think that the inching up method that some shills use is the most damaging but the real one is the silent snipe at much higher prices that nails another snipe bidder.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dpeck can you state exactly what the negatives are to sniping? >>
Getting hung out to dry by shill bidders.
The vast majority of snipes are far away from the current price and leave you exposed.
There are more examples of snipe bidders winning at record prices then steals. >>
Are you saying sniping exposes you to shills more than other methods? If so, how? Sorry if I missed an earlier explanation.
What do you mean by #2? Exposed to what?
#3 is not a negative to sniping. There are certainly more examples of no inspires winning at record prices than steals as well and is not relevant. >>
The easiest way to get shilled is through a snipe bid. Plain and simple.
Most think that the inching up method that some shills use is the most damaging but the real one is the silent snipe at much higher prices that nails another snipe bidder. >>
How? If you squat bid at the same top price, that snipe is still coming. BOOM!