Is Vlad Guerrero Cooperstown bound?

Gemyanks10 · February 10, 2014 1:21AM

Good morning everyone. I'm not sure if this is appropriate for the sports cards and memorabilia section, but was wondering some of your thoughts on whether or not you thought Vladimir Guerrero was a possible HOF candidate? We've been having a little debate on another site about this and I say no, or at least borderline at best. He had a great batting average at over 300, but doesn't have 500 hrs, doesn't have 3000 hits, and played in the PED era. He was very good and had a 16 year career, but HOF good? Thoughts? Thanks guys, also since being back in the hobby for only a few years, I haven't collected much modern yet, but can't recall hearing that this guy's cards were much sought after? Thanks for the help.

Jimmy

hyperchipper09 · February 10, 2014 1:37AM

Yes. Probably not first ballot but he'll get in quick. Great hitter, big numbers. As close to a lock without milestone numbers(500HR etc) as a player can get.

JHS5120 · February 10, 2014 1:42AM

I've had this discussion a few times. I think he was one of the best all around players to play during the era, but he was never HOF worthy in a single attribute.

I think he is a borderline HOFer without the steroid cloud over his head, unfortunately, I cannot see him getting in.

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 1:49AM

Definite hall of famer. .318 career average, hit over .300 13 times, 4 times over 200 hits, 10 times over 100 RBI, and almost 500 homeruns. Also a 9 time all star, 8 silver slugger awards, and an MVP. And he was a great fielder with a great arm, and a decent base runner. Sounds like the hall of fame to me. Not sure why people say no to him.

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 2:11AM

He is the Fred McGriff type great all around player but never dominant in the league.

both should be in the hall of fame but who knows.

Eventually they will get voted in one way or the other.

hammered · February 10, 2014 2:26AM

He will get in
One of the very few power hitters not linked to PED

PMKAY · February 10, 2014 2:30AM

Are batting average and RBI stats still important?

DavidPuddy · February 10, 2014 2:50AM

<< Are batting average and RBI stats still important? >>

Ok then, OPS.
35th all time .9312

ndleo · February 10, 2014 4:00AM

Why did he retire at 36? That seems a little young considering that these guys train year round. His last years stats weren't bad and he played 145 games.

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 4:05AM

<< Why did he retire at 36? That seems a little young considering that these guys train year round. His last years stats weren't bad and he played 145 games. >>

He had knee troubles the last few years of his career. He couldn't really field anymore and could hardly run. He was a slow DH at best and no teams offered him a major league contract.

NVbaseball · February 10, 2014 4:27AM

He'll be on the ballot first in 2017 along with Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz, Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jim Edmonds, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Even if everyone voted for 10 players, doubtful he would earn 75% of votes -- and the average number of players each voter votes for is only around five

Then even after 2017, it will take six years for any of those players to be dropped from the ballot, and by then plenty of others will have joined: Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Ichiro, Halladay, Pujols, Helton, Pettite, Ortiz. . .

swartz1 · February 10, 2014 4:32AM

PSASAP · February 10, 2014 5:26AM

He is the Fred McGriff type great all around player but never dominant in the league.

Oh really? So winning the MVP is not dominant enough for you? How about if he wore leathers and had a bullwhip in his hand? ;-)

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 5:34AM

<< He is the Fred McGriff type great all around player but never dominant in the league.

Oh really? So winning the MVP is not dominant enough for you? How about if he wore leathers and had a bullwhip in his hand? ;-) >>

Not dominant? From 98-08 he was one of the most consistent and best hitters in baseball. He even had some good years after 08 as well, even though they weren't as dominant.

TNP777 · February 10, 2014 5:34AM

I don't know. Did he buy a train ticket or is he driving? What are his hotel accommodations?

PSASAP · February 10, 2014 5:42AM

Looking at the responses leads me to the conclusion that there are many folks on this board who don't really follow baseball, at least in the last decade or so.

Tabe · February 10, 2014 5:45AM

<< He is the Fred McGriff type great all around player but never dominant in the league. >>

Vlad was a LOT better than Fred McGriff. There was never a time when anybody was discussing whether Fred McGriff was the best player in baseball, even for a year. Vlad was frequently in that discussion.

Guerrero absolutely deserves to be in but I have the feeling he'll somehow get overlooked.

lbcoach20 · February 10, 2014 7:41AM

I say yes. He drove in 100+ RBIs ten times. Had 200+ hits 4 times. He was a very good player for over a decade. 9 time all-star. MVP winner. Plus he didn't wear batting gloves! That's cool.......

Dodgerfanjohn · February 10, 2014 8:01AM

This is a joke right?

Since when is 500hr a necessary criteria for the HOF?

Vlad didn't have the longetivity, but was a crushing dominant hitter for over a decade, and without the steroid stink hanging over him.

A good guy with an awesome attitude and demeanor. I'm glad I got to see him play several times as an Angel.

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 8:11AM

If a player in the 50s or 60s put up vlads numbers and wasn't put in the hall, then people on these boards would probably still be crying about it all this time later. Fact is, he was a top 5 hitter in the mlb for about a decade and if you don't think that, then you obviously havnt watched much baseball the past 15 years.

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 8:12AM

<< Looking at the responses leads me to the conclusion that there are many folks on this board who don't really follow baseball, at least in the last decade or so. >>

I agree

swartz1 · February 10, 2014 8:26AM

<< Definite hall of famer. .318 career average, hit over .300 13 times, 4 times over 200 hits, 10 times over 100 RBI, and almost 500 homeruns. Also a 9 time all star, 8 silver slugger awards, and an MVP. And he was a great fielder with a great arm, and a decent base runner. Sounds like the hall of fame to me. Not sure why people say no to him. >>

Since when is 449 almost 500?

ndleo · February 10, 2014 8:29AM

I have a feeling that Vlad may get caught in the same boat as Jeff Bagwell. Vlad might get tarnished by the fact his is a Dominican player and so many of them have been linked to PEDs. That party boat may add another member when Big Papi retires.

Bagwell never was officially linked but I think some voters are holding it against him.

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 8:34AM

<< 

<< He is the Fred McGriff type great all around player but never dominant in the league.

Oh really? So winning the MVP is not dominant enough for you? How about if he wore leathers and had a bullwhip in his hand? ;-) >>

Not dominant? From 98-08 he was one of the most consistent and best hitters in baseball. He even had some good years after 08 as well, even though they weren't as dominant. >>

McGriff was top 10 in voting for MVP 6 times so what ? the same exact amount as Guerrero except Guerrero won once.

They are the same type of player along with Dawson . ... to me at least

Like I said I think Vlad will get in one way or the other .....But...he's never once led the league in either batting average, on-base percentage, or slugging percentage. Never once led the league in home runs, never once in RBI. I'm not trying to say that you *have* to have led the league in one of those categories to be a HoFer, but I would say that it's pretty unusual for a power-hitting outfielder of HoF caliber *not* to have ever done that.

oh and he was not the best defensive player, hell of an arm though in his early career

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 8:44AM

<< 

<< Definite hall of famer. .318 career average, hit over .300 13 times, 4 times over 200 hits, 10 times over 100 RBI, and almost 500 homeruns. Also a 9 time all star, 8 silver slugger awards, and an MVP. And he was a great fielder with a great arm, and a decent base runner. Sounds like the hall of fame to me. Not sure why people say no to him. >>

Since when is 449 almost 500? >>

well compared to 200

halosfan · February 10, 2014 8:53AM

Yes

miconelegacy · February 10, 2014 9:46AM

If not something is wrong. He'll get in.

galaxy27 · February 10, 2014 10:07AM

He had eight seasons with 30 or more HRs and a .300 or better BA. To toss that into context, Ted Williams (8), Willie Mays (8), Mickey Mantle (7), Joe DiMaggio (6), Stan Musial (6), Mel Ott (6), and Frank Robinson (6).

The fourth highest BA (.318) by a right-handed hitter over the last 50 years, trailing only Albert Pujols (.321), Miguel Cabrera (.321), and Kirby Puckett (.318+).

Players with at least a .318 BA and 449 HRs in MLB history - Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Jimmy Foxx, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols,…….and Guerrero.

His OPS+, one of the best statistics for gauging a player's worth, is higher than that of Ken Griffey, Jr., Roberto Clemente, George Brett, and Eddie Murray, for example.

When he entered the league, he was a 5-tool player. He was maniacal at the plate, yet he never once struck out 100 times in a season. He had a bazooka attached to his right arm. Had he played on a grass surface his first eight seasons instead of a slab of concrete covered by plastic, I not only think his career would have been prolonged, but the traditional milestones that far too many people rely on would have been easily surpassed.

If he doesn't belong, they better stick a moving van at the front door of the HoF and start loading it up.

Skin2 · February 10, 2014 10:08AM

First, forget about comparing him to other eras, as Vlad played during the height of the live ball era, and even the advanced measurements don't accurately account for that huge advantage.

So, stay in the era.

Below are the contemporaries with a higher OPS+ than Vlad. Not included are the obvious Mcgwire type PED guys that have no shot of getting in.

Pujols 165
Thomas 156
M. Cabrerra 154
Bagwell 149
E. Martinez 147
Thome 147
Belle 144
Berkman 144
Piazza 143
K. Mitchell 142
Chipper 141
L. Walker 141

Vlad 140

Dave Ortiz 139
Delgado 138
Griffey 136

Mitchell simply didn't have enough at bats to make that 142 as meaningful.
Walker...even though his figure is adjusted for Coors, it doesn't look like it is adjusted enough.

Looking at that list...if you are going to disregard the Manny's, Sheffield's, Giambi's, Bonds, McGwire, Arod(who are all higher, except Sheffield and Giambi who are equal), then Vlad has a claim.

If you are not going to look past the PED group, then obviously, his claim his much lessened.

Looking at defense too, he probably passes Martinez, Belle, and probably Berkman.

....But, as long as Piazza is out of the HOF with better hitting than Vlad...and it coming from the catcher position, then Vlad should be waiting!

3BoyzTrading · February 10, 2014 10:12AM

One of the most feared hitters during his time. He belongs.

galaxy27 · February 10, 2014 10:44AM

<< ....But, as long as Piazza is out of the HOF with better hitting than Vlad...and it coming from the catcher position, then Vlad should be waiting! >>

I initially missed this because we were posting simultaneously, but I do agree with this statement. As long as guys like Piazza remain on the ballot, it'll be difficult for Vlad the Impaler to walk in. My formal prediction is that it'll take a number of years, but eventually he'll go. And rightfully so.

shagrotn77 · February 10, 2014 10:53AM

I can't believe this is even being discussed. Of course Vlad will be a first-ballot HOF'er.

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 10:57AM

<< First, forget about comparing him to other eras, as Vlad played during the height of the live ball era, and even the advanced measurements don't accurately account for that huge advantage.

So, stay in the era.

Below are the contemporaries with a higher OPS+ than Vlad. Not included are the obvious Mcgwire type PED guys that have no shot of getting in.

Pujols 165
Thomas 156
M. Cabrerra 154
Bagwell 149
E. Martinez 147
Thome 147
Belle 144
Berkman 144
Piazza 143
K. Mitchell 142
Chipper 141
L. Walker 141

Vlad 140

Dave Ortiz 139
Delgado 138
Griffey 136

Mitchell simply didn't have enough at bats to make that 142 as meaningful.
Walker...even though his figure is adjusted for Coors, it doesn't look like it is adjusted enough.

Looking at that list...if you are going to disregard the Manny's, Sheffield's, Giambi's, Bonds, McGwire, Arod(who are all higher, except Sheffield and Giambi who are equal), then Vlad has a claim.

If you are not going to look past the PED group, then obviously, his claim his much lessened.

Looking at defense too, he probably passes Martinez, Belle, and probably Berkman.

....But, as long as Piazza is out of the HOF with better hitting than Vlad...and it coming from the catcher position, then Vlad should be waiting! >>

Bonds will for sure make it into the hall of fame eventually even probably McGuire.
Can they be voted in by veterans ... if so they will vote them in .....but I believe Bonds will get voted in by the writers

swartz1 · February 10, 2014 11:04AM

Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career...

He belongs in the Hall of Very Good...

Never in the Hall of Fame...

thenextlevel1 · February 10, 2014 12:05PM

<< Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career...

He belongs in the Hall of Very Good...

Never in the Hall of Fame... >>

Ken Griffey jr was average for a third of his career. I assume you think that his 16 year average stats are not stellar?

G PA AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OB SLG
162 684 615 100 195 36 3 34 113 14 56 74 .318 .379 .553

otwcards · February 10, 2014 12:20PM

Vlad will be in within 3 years of eligibility.

What gets me is the complete disrespect that Albert Belle has had to endure. I don't care whether he ticked off the press or was an unfriendly sort, he was one of the most dominant hitters of his era and put up a 10 year stretch that no voter should ignore. However, he's been virtually ignored by almost all of the writers. Very sad, especially when you look at his 162 game average for the duration of his career.

psychump · February 10, 2014 12:25PM

Eventually yes. Comparable to Willie Stargell,Duke Snider,Jim Rice and Wilton Guerrero.

Bear48 · February 10, 2014 12:39PM

3rd ballot HOFer all the way!!!

jay0791 · February 10, 2014 1:05PM

Maybe not 1st ballot...but he's a hofer IMO

vladguerrero · February 10, 2014 1:50PM

<< Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career...

He belongs in the Hall of Very Good...

Never in the Hall of Fame... >>

LUDICROUS.

PSASAP · February 10, 2014 1:58PM

Compare the careers of Kirby Puckett and Vlad Guerrero, and then explain why Puckett is first ballot HOF'er and Vlad is not. Eliminate the career cut short sympathy vote and the two World Series wins arguments and confine the argument to who was the better hitter.

orioles93 · February 10, 2014 2:00PM

<< Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career...

He belongs in the Hall of Very Good...

Never in the Hall of Fame... >>

what 1/3 was average? He hit over .300 every year except 2 and those years he hit .290 and .295, and one was a shortened season. He was undoubtedly above average almost every season he played.

galaxy27 · February 10, 2014 2:27PM

<< Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career... >>

That was quite the statement.

96 - he had 27 total ABs
97 - RoY (6)
98 - MVP (13)
99 - MVP (11)
00 - MVP (6)
01 - MVP (24)
02 - MVP (4)
03 - MVP (17)
04 - MVP (1)
05 - MVP (3)
06 - MVP (9)
07 - MVP (3)
08 - MVP (14)
09 - --------
10 - MVP (11)
11 - --------

If he has to wait longer than 3 years, it's a travesty.

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 3:54PM

<< Compare the careers of Kirby Puckett and Vlad Guerrero, and then explain why Puckett is first ballot HOF'er and Vlad is not. Eliminate the career cut short sympathy vote and the two World Series wins arguments and confine the argument to who was the better hitter. >>

probably because of Puckett's 1988 season and his ability to lead the league in hits , rbi and ba categories during his career.

Ilovecards · February 10, 2014 3:58PM

<< 

<< Vlad was average for 1/3 of his career...

He belongs in the Hall of Very Good...

Never in the Hall of Fame... >>

Ken Griffey jr was average for a third of his career. I assume you think that his 16 year average stats are not stellar?

G PA AB R Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OB SLG
162 684 615 100 195 36 3 34 113 14 56 74 .318 .379 .553 >>

same issue
Griffey was a league leader in multiple years for hr , slug, and rbi while Guerrero never did . He just never had that kind of dominant season that stood out. Yeah he was good but....those things count. Griffey was a much better ball player for a nice stretch and had a nice long career. Besides umm ever see Griffey play outfield !

but again I am not saying only way Vlad will get into the Hall of Fame is through buying a ticket.

sportscardstop · February 10, 2014 4:31PM

I think he's a lock to make it. One of the best of his era, a feared hitter, great arm. I'd put him in before Bagwell. (I'd still put Bagwell in, just saying if I had to choose).

PSASAP · February 10, 2014 6:54PM

Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career.

swartz1 · February 10, 2014 8:06PM

his numbers are very similar to Bagwell...

look what they did to him for two years now...

he was on bad teams, he was hurt often, and the bottom line is...he was good enough - long enough...

Estil · February 10, 2014 11:38PM

Well, his hits and HR's seem to kinda put him on the bubble at best...maybe his .318 BA will be enough to put him over the top?

Ilovecards · February 11, 2014 2:33AM

<< Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career. >>

I do not know how ba would be affected by this and that is a thin excuse. No one was walked and pitched around more than Bonds and he still dominated those categories

from 2000 to 2007 Bonds BB was the highest in the league and he still murdered it

Dodgerfanjohn · February 11, 2014 3:08AM

<< 

<< Leading the league in any of the categories hr, RBI, and ba is often a function of the quality of the team. A great hitter on a bad team will be pitched around, and won't have as many RBI opportunities. Compare the Twins teams during Puckett's career with the Expos teams of Vlad's career. >>

I do not know how ba would be affected by this and that is a thin excuse. No one was walked and pitched around more than Bonds and he still dominated those categories

from 2000 to 2007 Bonds BB was the highest in the league and he still murdered it >>

Lol. You sir are a trollin'

Is Vlad Guerrero Cooperstown bound?

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