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This gold $20 is in free fall
Oxenham
Posts: 63
A few months back I noticed a plethora of PCGS 1904 $20 Libs in MS66 for sale at Heritage. The coins were not even in auction, but rather offered as "buy now" which certainly seemed odd for this grade. MS65 Liberty's are common, but MS66 Libs have been relatively scarce, at least until recently. I conducted a little research and was shocked at the result.
In 2010, four non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $14,231. In the past month, two non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $7,187. This coin appears to have lost about half its value in three years. What happened here?
In 2010, four non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $14,231. In the past month, two non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $7,187. This coin appears to have lost about half its value in three years. What happened here?
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$20 Liberties MS-66
$2.50 Indians MS-65 and MS-66
$3.00 Gold MS-64 and MS-65
$5.00 Indians MS-65
$10 Indians MS-66
$20 Saints in MS-66 MS-67 and MS-68
There's more examples, but you get the idea. Date rarity gold, for the most part, is much more in demand in the present marketplace.
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I see most generic gold as having tremendous upside due to either rising bullion prices or numismatic demand, or both.
The downside potential is mitigated when compared to coins with no intrinsic value.
The above thinking is a little more applicable to common-date Saints or Libs than it is for the OP's coins at MS66 and above. I look at a $500 Morgan as having $475 of numismatic value and $25 of bullion value. I look at a 1924 Saint in MS65 as having $1200 of numismatic value and $1200 of bullion value. Early copper...... well, it's 99.99% numismatic value.
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<< <i>A few months back I noticed a plethora of PCGS 1904 $20 Libs in MS66 for sale at Heritage. The coins were not even in auction, but rather offered as "buy now" which certainly seemed odd for this grade. MS65 Liberty's are common, but MS66 Libs have been relatively scarce, at least until recently. I conducted a little research and was shocked at the result.
In 2010, four non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $14,231. In the past month, two non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $7,187. This coin appears to have lost about half its value in three years. What happened here? >>
Looks at the pop explosions in high grade $20 gold pieces from 1998 to 2008. In reality, most generic MS66's are just 65+ coins. But the market needed those coins in that era to fuel the coin and gold boom. It's not much different than calling early US dollars mint state when maybe only 5% of them are. It's not a surprise that as the market has weakened, that these $20 Lib MS66 premiums are falling back to be more closely in line with a 65+ or ++ might be worth. You will see something similar in generic MS67 Saints. They used to be worth $8K or so. Now into the $6K's. Would not surprise me to see the lowest end 67's fall back to say $4500 to $5500 where the finest of stickered 66+ coins live. With CAC only stickering about 5-15% of all mint state gold, they have put on a standard that's very strict. Hence, only 35 MS66 $20 Libs, nearly all of them are 1904. Pick your favorite US series and choose only the top 5% of all specimens in any grade as being "desireable." Imagine what that would do the pricing of the other 95%? This is what stickering has done to the generic gold market along with the loosening of standards from 1998-2008. An "all there" MS66 $20 lib (or even a MS65 for that matter) is still a tough coin. I remember getting a generic box of 35 MS65 $20 Libs back in 2009. Of that group, I don't think a single coin was higher end, and at most a couple pieces were solid or ok for the grade. Nearly the whole box was lower end. It gave me a new outlook on just how tough it was to find "real" MS65 gem $10 and $20 Liberty gold.
<< <i>
<< <i>A few months back I noticed a plethora of PCGS 1904 $20 Libs in MS66 for sale at Heritage. The coins were not even in auction, but rather offered as "buy now" which certainly seemed odd for this grade. MS65 Liberty's are common, but MS66 Libs have been relatively scarce, at least until recently. I conducted a little research and was shocked at the result.
In 2010, four non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $14,231. In the past month, two non CAC PCGS 1904 MS66 Libs sold at auction for an average price of $7,187. This coin appears to have lost about half its value in three years. What happened here? >>
Looks at the pop explosions in high grade $20 gold pieces from 1998 to 2008. In reality, most generic MS66's are just 65+ coins. But the market needed those coins in that era to fuel the coin and gold boom. It's not much different than calling early US dollars mint state when maybe only 5% of them are. It's not a surprise that as the market has weakened, that these $20 Lib MS66 premiums are falling back to be more closely in line with a 65+ or ++ might be worth. You will see something similar in generic MS67 Saints. They used to be worth $8K or so. Now into the $6K's. Would not surprise me to see the lowest end 67's fall back to say $4500 to $5500 where the finest of stickered 66+ coins live. With CAC only stickering about 5-15% of all mint state gold, they have put on a standard that's very strict. Hence, only 35 MS66 $20 Libs, nearly all of them are 1904. Pick your favorite US series and choose only the top 5% of all specimens in any grade as being "desireable." Imagine what that would do the pricing of the other 95%? This is what stickering has done to the generic gold market along with the looseing of standards from 1998-2008. An "all there" MS66 $20 lib (or even a MS65 for that matter) is still a tough coin. I remember getting a generic box of 35 MS65 $20 Libs back in 2009. Of that group, I don't think a single coin was higher end, and at most a couple pieces were solid or ok for the grade. Nearly the whole box was lower end. It gave me a new outlook on just how tough it was to find "real" MS65 gem $10 and $20 Liberty gold. >>
I think this is great analysis, thank you for the insights
<< <i>Great time to buy, n'est-ce pas?
I see most generic gold as having tremendous upside due to either rising bullion prices or numismatic demand, or both.
The downside potential is mitigated when compared to coins with no intrinsic value.
The above thinking is a little more applicable to common-date Saints or Libs than it is for the OP's coins at MS66 and above. I look at a $500 Morgan as having $475 of numismatic value and $25 of bullion value. I look at a 1924 Saint in MS65 as having $1200 of numismatic value and $1200 of bullion value. Early copper...... well, it's 99.99% numismatic value.
A 1924 saint in ms 65 with 1200 dollar numimatic value ?
Do you realize how common that coin is?
I would not pay more than $400 numismatic value.
Seriously
I also realize I probably would not buy any either but that's all they
are worth to me,
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Needs to be in a Doily to hold it's value.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>A 1924 saint in ms 65 with 1200 dollar numismatic value ?
Do you realize how common that coin is?
I would not pay more than $400 numismatic value.
Seriously
I also realize I probably would not buy any either but that's all they
are worth to me, >>
You're probably in the top 5% (or lower 5% depending on one's view). I don't think we have to debate about $1200 in numis value considering that a Saint now has $1160 in intrinsic gold value. Which means an MS65 is carrying approx $650-$700 in "numis" value. Or put another way, a 60% premium to its gold content. Provide me with a list of all the min of 80-100 year old regular issue US mint coins in MS65 that carry a 60% premium to metal content in gem condition (hint...it's a very short list).
The most obvious choice would be MS65 common Morgans at $150.....that's 900% premium (10X) to its metal content. Holy crap. Do you realize how common MS65 Morgans are? We could also consider MS65 late 1920's Lincs, Buffs, Mercs that probably carry a 100X premium to their metal content. The real question is, why does a MS65 Saint only carry a 60% premium to spot? Why isn't a MS65 1880-s Morgan a $24 coin like the Saint? I was checking out the BST the other day and there was a 5,000 count bag of circ wheat cents for sale at $200 (4x face value). Today's intrinsic metal value is 2.17 cents. Holy crap. At 4c each that seller is asking an 84% premium to spot metal.....that's 40% higher than the MS65 Saint's ratio. Gem 100 yr old gold vs. a circ piece of 1950's copper? Do you know how common wheat cents are? They made 20 Billion or so of those. That's $200 MILL in spendable face value.
My point? Let's not just beat up on the gem Saints. There are plenty of other areas that one could call "overpriced" as well vs. their metal content and numismatic availability. The MS63 Saints are down at the 20% over spot level....about on par with the premium for a VG common date Morgan. Are those "rare?". Along with the huge numbers that all of these exist in comes huge demand. The nearly one ounce of gold inside that MS65 Saint has a lot of demand. Even when gold was a lowly $320 back in Sept 2002 your common MS65 Saint was a $750-$900 coin....a 150-200% premium. It's not like they're heading back to $450 anytime soon. Is a 60% premium that outlandish? I recall back in Nov 2009 when gold was nearing a new high of $1225 that MS65 Saints were up to $2500-$2800. Even 64's were around $2,000. They may have a lot more downside to them if gold continues to spend a lot of time at lower and lower numbers. But from my recollection of the past 12 years, I don't recall a premium ever lower than the current 60% for MS65's. Circ wheat cents have it better. There's more to pricing here than just the pops vs. gold price.
<< <i>
<< <i>A 1924 saint in ms 65 with 1200 dollar numismatic value ?
Do you realize how common that coin is?
I would not pay more than $400 numismatic value.
Seriously
I also realize I probably would not buy any either but that's all they
are worth to me, >>
You're probably in the top 5% (or lower 5% depending on one's view). I don't think we have to debate about $1200 in numis value considering that a Saint now has $1160 in intrinsic gold value. Which means an MS65 is carrying approx $650-$700 in "numis" value. Or put another way, a 60% premium to its gold content. Provide me with a list of all the min of 80-100 year old MS65 US coins that carry a 60% premium to metal content in gem condition.
The most obvious choice would be MS65 common Morgans at $150.....that's 900% premium (10X) to its metal content. Holy crap. Do you realize how common MS65 Morgans are? We could also consider MS65 late 1920's Lincs, Buffs, Mercs that probably carry a 100X premium to their metal content. The real question is, why does a MS65 Saint only carry a 60% premium to spot? Why isn't a MS65 1880-s Morgan a $24 coin like the Saint? >>
The OP did not say anything about 'gems'. Sure I will pay more than 60% for a true 'gem' 65 liberty....
You keep using that qualifying word in these kind of discussions. Not talking about gems.....just your ordinary slabbed 65 like the OP intended.
If you want to pay a 60% premium for a coin like Lakesammman showed..... have at it,
At a 60% premium over spot those coins are overvalued imo.
Hit the BID !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You keep using that qualifying word in these kind of discussions. Not talking about gems.....just your ordinary slabbed 65 like the OP intended.
If you want to pay a 60% premium for a coin like Lakesammman showed..... have at it,
At a 60% premium over spot those coins are overvalued imo.
Hit the BID !
The OP was discussing GEM MS65 and MS66 $20 Libs until "someone" derailed the thread to state their dislike for MS65 Saints at current prices. But, I'm glad that you'd pay more than 60% over spot for a true gem
MS65 $20 Liberty ($1850). Unfortunately, that won't get you many pieces since generic 65's fetch close to 160% of spot ($3,000) and nice ones are $4,000. And why is it important to talk about "real" gems in the discussion?
It's because more so than any US series, gem $20's have seen exceptional gradeflation over the 1998-2008 period. The lower grades didn't see this. You can't discuss gem $20's w/o talking about the significant inflation at the
gem grade level. "All there" MS65 gem $20 Libs are not common coins, neither are MS66's whether average to low end. Bidask, when was the last time you owned a MS65 $20 Lib?
As far as Heritage offering a plethora of MS66 $20 Libs at auction there could be a number of reasons for those showing up at once. Maybe someone unloaded their personal stash. Maybe those were a fresh group of coins that
Heritage recently pulled out of Europe. In every major auction there are always a number of them. At other than major coin shows or auctions, I never see them. As Mr Eureka has suggested, the variation in quality of these
MS65 to MS66 $20 Libs is so large than to discuss price w/o reference to quality is a waste of time. There are low end MS66's I wouldn't want to pay $6500 for. And no doubt there are 66's that I couldn't get $10K out of my
check book fast enough.
Something is not right. Here is what our host is saying has been the trend for 10 years.
Most of the other MS65/66 $2-1/2's, $3's, $5's, and $10's, are about half of what they were in 2006/2008. I recall MS65 $10 Indians at $7500 back then....and $3,000 or so today.
There's no way that an average MS66 $5 Lib got a free pass while everything else in smaller denomination gold got hammered. Could be that the retail boost in the price guide is much higher today
than it was in 2006/2008. I generally see a 50% boost over wholesale in the price guide for coins that are fairly available on the market. PCGS MS66's (non stickered) were fetching in the mid to upper
$4K's in 2013 on Heritage archives. I suspect that average MS66's back in 2006 were really fetching $7K or more.
<< <i>The OP did not say anything about 'gems'. Sure I will pay more than 60% for a true 'gem' 65 liberty....
You keep using that qualifying word in these kind of discussions. Not talking about gems.....just your ordinary slabbed 65 like the OP intended.
If you want to pay a 60% premium for a coin like Lakesammman showed..... have at it,
At a 60% premium over spot those coins are overvalued imo.
Hit the BID !
The OP was discussing GEM MS65 and MS66 $20 Libs until "someone" derailed the thread to state their dislike for MS65 Saints at current prices. But, I'm glad that you'd pay more than 60% over spot for a true gem
MS65 $20 Liberty ($1850). Unfortunately, that won't get you many pieces since generic 65's fetch close to 160% of spot ($3,000) and nice ones are $4,000. And why is it important to talk about "real" gems in the discussion?
It's because more so than any US series, gem $20's have seen exceptional gradeflation over the 1998-2008 period. The lower grades didn't see this. You can't discuss gem $20's w/o talking about the significant inflation at the
gem grade level. "All there" MS65 gem $20 Libs are not common coins, neither are MS66's whether average to low end. Bidask, when was the last time you owned a MS65 $20 Lib?
As far as Heritage offering a plethora of MS66 $20 Libs at auction there could be a number of reasons for those showing up at once. Maybe someone unloaded their personal stash. Maybe those were a fresh group of coins that
Heritage recently pulled out of Europe. In every major auction there are always a number of them. At other than major coin shows or auctions, I never see them. As Mr Eureka has suggested, the variation in quality of these
MS65 to MS66 $20 Libs is so large than to discuss price w/o reference to quality is a waste of time. There are low end MS66's I wouldn't want to pay $6500 for. And no doubt there are 66's that I couldn't get $10K out of my
check book fast enough. >>
Whoever is unloading at Heritage is smart. And no, the OP was not talking about 'gems'.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Whoever the person is unloading at Heritage isn't so smart....if they've owned the coins for more than 8 months. And unloading after a 50% decline....that may not be so smart either. The last time I bought MS65 $20 Libs in quantity was in late Dec 2008 when gold was around $850/oz. "GEM" $20 Libs were in the $3,000-$3,200 price range.....much like they are now. They had fallen from $5,000+ or so. They seemed stupid cheap. I bought approx 35 pieces in one deal....all common dates. Anyone selling them at $3,100 at that time was "smart" to get out....they could have gone to $0. I hung on to them for about a year and sold them all for $5,000-$5,200 as gold was was approaching a new all time at $1220/oz in Nov 2009. And you're probably right that it may be getting close to that time to "hit that bid" again.
Heritage has auctioned off 8 - 1904 PCGS MS66 $20 Libs in 2013. That doesn't quite seem to be that the sky is falling. when there are 168 - 1904 Phillies graded. In June/July a couple of non-stickered pieces brought $9400 to $9600. Quality determines price. The last stickered 1904 PCGS 66 sold by Heritage was in Oct 2012 - brought nearly $13,000. No doubt that low end quality brings low end money....more so than ever.
<< <i>For the 40 years that I've followed high grade mint state coins MS65 has always defined the minimum level for a "gem" coin. Anything from MS65 to MS70 is still gem. But, I'd love to hear your preferred terminology for MS65 vs. MS66.
Whoever the person is unloading at Heritage isn't so smart....if they've owned the coins for more than 8 months. And unloading after a 50% decline....that may not be so smart either. The last time I bought MS65 $20 Libs in quantity was in late Dec 2008 when gold was around $850/oz. "GEM" $20 Libs were in the $3,000-$3,200 price range.....much like they are now. They had fallen from $5,000+ or so. They seemed stupid cheap. I bought approx 35 pieces in one deal....all common dates. Anyone selling them at $3,100 at that time was "smart" to get out....they could have gone to $0. I hung on to them for about a year and sold them all for $5,000-$5,200 as gold was was approaching a new all time at $1220/oz in Nov 2009. And you're probably right that it may be getting close to that time to "hit that bid" again.
Heritage has auctioned off 8 - 1904 PCGS MS66 $20 Libs in 2013. That doesn't quite seem to be that the sky is falling. when there are 168 - 1904 Phillies graded. In June/July a couple of non-stickered pieces brought $9400 to $9600. Quality determines price. The last stickered 1904 PCGS 66 sold by Heritage was in Oct 2012 - brought nearly $13,000. No doubt that low end quality brings low end money....more so than ever. >>
Roadrunner, here is a comment you posted in this thread: " I remember getting a generic box of 35 MS65 $20 Libs back in 2009. Of that group, I don't think a single coin was higher end, and at most a couple pieces were solid or ok for the grade. Nearly the whole box was lower end. It gave me a new outlook on just how tough it was to find "real" MS65 gem $10 and $20 Liberty gold. "
Now your saying: "For the 40 years that I've followed high grade mint state coins MS65 has always defined the minimum level for a "gem" coin. Anything from MS65 to MS70 is still gem"
Anything?
So once again your talking out both sides of your mouth.
So which is it?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.