Great article by Jeff Garrett-Do Bullion Prices matter anymore

TahoeDale · July 18, 2013 8:30AM

I just received the update news from NGC-article referenced there.

Someone needs to link it here. Good stuff

roadrunner · July 18, 2013 12:05PM

I scoured the NGC site and even googled the title. Neither NGC's article or news sections show a gold article by Garrett....at least not that I could find.

I think bullion prices do matter. Without being able to see the context, I am tempted to say this is the kind of talk that tends to show up near market bottoms.

derryb · July 18, 2013 12:32PM

<< I scoured the NGC site and even googled the title. Neither NGC's article or news sections show a gold article by Garrett....at least not that I could find.

I think bullion prices do matter. Without being able to see the context, I am tempted to say this is the kind of talk that tends to show up near market bottoms. >>

Same here, also checked my email news from NGC.

I did find Jeff talking about "How Bullion Values Affect Coin Prices" at the ANA Convention

LochNESS · July 18, 2013 12:42PM

In any case, I think this is better suited for the Precious Metals forum

... and be prepared for a reaming ...

derryb · July 18, 2013 12:52PM

<< In any case, I think this is better suited for the Precious Metals forum

... and be prepared for a reaming ... >>

fitting for here if it concerns bullion prices mattering to coin values.

LochNESS · July 18, 2013 12:56PM

I agree if that is indeed the topic. I thought it was more general, based on the thread title.

roadrunner · July 18, 2013 1:03PM

The above JG video was from summer 2011 ANA when gold was at $1700 all time high and going higher. It was a shocker to US gold coin premiums. Garrett noted that
US gold coin premiums were at some of the lowest premiums seen in nearly 30 years. So in 2011 bullion prices did matter to JG and the gold coin market. Whether they
matter as much today at $1285 gold remains to be seen. For the most part, generic MS gold coins (expect $20's) peaked back in spring 2006. A lot of this is probably due to
the fact that even though they aren't minting any more pre-1933 US gold coins....the number of coins still coming out of overseas vaults is the equivalent of a rising supply.
And as long as that continues, they might as well be minting them. I'm sure the amount of MS61-MS67 US gold coins is many times larger than what was available in 1983.
I guess we can thank overseas vaults, a $1900 gold price, as well as PCGS/NGC for drawing those out of hiding over the past 10-15 years.

LochNESS · July 18, 2013 1:09PM

<< ... as well as PCGS/NGC for drawing those out of hiding over the past 10-15 years. >>

I was going to say, there are more "available" because of the slabbing. The quantity hasn't changed save the occasional gaudens-turned-belt-buckle incident.

roadrunner · July 18, 2013 1:21PM

<< 

<< ... as well as PCGS/NGC for drawing those out of hiding over the past 10-15 years. >>

I was going to say, there are more "available" because of the slabbing. The quantity hasn't changed save the occasional gaudens-turned-belt-buckle incident. >>

There are more "available" because the tens of (or hundreds) thousands of gold coins hidden in overseas vaults were basically unknown to the hobby. Yes, the existing quantity hasn't
changed. It's not much different than the "known" qty of 1933 Saints going from 3? to 14? because of the Langbord coins. They've always been out there. It's just that for the hobby,
those specimens were not accounted for in the market pricing of the others that were already known about. The 10,000 or so Wells Fargo Saints in choice/gem grade is another example.
The existence of those flipped MS66-69 type coin pricing on its head. The slabbing or grading had nothing to do with these coins coming to market. With or without PCGS, time and
$1900 gold was going to draw them out. Just imagine what will show up with $3500/oz gold if we get there this decade.

LochNESS · July 18, 2013 1:25PM

I was not aware of the "Wells Fargo" hoard, only the Langhorn (or is it Langbord?) coins which I wasn't really counting since they are such a unique subset of the Type IMO.

When you mentioned overseas vaults, I honestly thought you were talking about foreign countries' gold issues (like Pandas) and their country's holdings. I didn't realize you were talking about US gold coins being stored overseas.

derryb · July 18, 2013 1:28PM

<< I was not aware of the "Wells Fargo" hoard, only the Langhorn (or is it Langbord?) coins which I wasn't really counting since they are such a unique subset of the Type IMO.

When you mentioned overseas vaults, I honestly thought you were talking about foreign countries' gold issues (like Pandas) and their country's holdings. I didn't realize you were talking about US gold coins being stored overseas. >>

One of the main reasons high grade saints are so plentiful. Now if we can just get into that French safe deposit box that's full of 1933's.

TahoeDale · July 18, 2013 5:22PM

The article is referenced in the NGC weekly market report--I received this mail on 7-18.

If you do not get this, google "NGC weekly Market report", and it is the 1st link.

Jeff discusses how bullion prices did affect rare coins in the 70 and 80's,
but not so much today.

Sorry I could not get it here--too illiterate

derryb · July 18, 2013 7:15PM

Do Bullion Prices Matter Anymore?

TwoSides2aCoin · July 18, 2013 8:43PM

That's a good overview of how it is and how it's always gonna be

Not that bullion doesn't enjoy it's place in the sun, enjoying parallels with "numismatics" for a time. By this, I mean some modern offerings of "numismatic rarity" is enough proof which supports this article. It's always a certain "coin" even in the modern coin market, which rises and falls in the early stages of numismatics, but rises enough and hits the "radar". This is what supports the hobby more than all the bullion in the world. A few examples which reflect and may support my thinking :

1995 W SAE Proof (mint issued to collectors in a gold proof eagle set)
Bi-metallic coin (issued by mint to collectors as a commemorative coin )
Cheerios Dollar (issued by mint to General Mills and a surprise )
Jackie Robinson (issued by mint to collectors and not popular enough that it became a sensation )
1992 D Close AM cent (issued by mint for commerce and discovered )
1998 w/ 97 Reverse SAE (issued by mint to collectors and discovered )

None of those modern day rarities were issued to Authorized Purchasers of bullion.
We don't typically find these items at "bullion outlets". Another thing about bullion though (to it's defense) : Some coins are limited in supply and command a large premium to spot for the simple fact that bullion has created it's own collector base. Mintage numbers are part of the "key" in what man deems as "rare" today. Albeit a different form of "key" and "rare", it only means it's more sought after. A good example would be the 1996 ASE. ( I won't bother mentioning some gold eagles). So , while the bullion prices do not matter as much anymore, they have a huge impact on what's collected and that keeps a good portion of investors/speculators from funding the "classics". This last run up (until mid 2011) was awesome to witness, while the takedown was equally painful to experience, and witness on this side of the counter ( b&m since 2009) .

The truth of the matter is : I'm glad I'm a coin geek.

ricko · July 18, 2013 9:52PM

Bullion prices are always relevant to 'stackers'...

Cheers, RickO

Great article by Jeff Garrett-Do Bullion Prices matter anymore

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