Price Guides

Metalsmith · July 2, 2013 2:59AM

I am aware that prices vary from one guide to another and that guides are just that, a guide. I have found that the PCGS price for a given coin seems to be on the high end for that coin. I think of the price listed in Coin Facts as the top end for that grade. (Not a complaint, just my observation.)

In coin facts it will list the last 5 sell prices for a given grade from different dealers and auction houses. Is the price listed the sell price of the coin or the sell price with the (in the case of Heritage 17 1/2%) buyers fee?

As an example, a PCGS MS-65 coin is listed as $475, the last 5 sell prices range between $350-$420. Dealer is asking $590 for the coin but will give a 10% discount to $530 for the coin. What is a fair offer? Something between $350-$420? Add 17 1/2% to offer say $400-$$490? PCGS at $475? Or, is $530 a good deal... I'll take it?

I realize a dealer can ask any price they want and as a buyer, I can offer any price I want to pay. The reason for my question is I am trying to learn how to make a fair offer. I don't want to lowball a dealer for a coin but I don't want to over pay on every coin I buy. If the people can agree, fine. If not, OK, and move on.

Thanks for any help in this matter.

Ms

BillJones · July 2, 2013 3:15AM

There is no way to answer this question without knowing the specific coin in question. General rules do not apply to coin pricing. Only specific cases relevant, and beyond that a picture or personal inspection of the piece are often necessary.

Eye appeal plays an important role in many coin transactions. A coin with less than perfect eye appeal in a specific technical grade is worth less than a piece with superior eye appeal in the same grade.

LindeDad · July 2, 2013 3:27AM

Is it one you really have to have or a hole filler?
Is it all there for the assigned grade or just so so?
And the list can go on and on.

Metalsmith · July 2, 2013 3:32AM

My example is not of a specific coin. I am talking of any coin. I know an exceptional coin commands a higher price.

Is the Coin Facts price listed the sell price of the coin or the sell price with the (in the case of Heritage 17 1/2%) buyers fee?

Ms

OldEastside · July 2, 2013 3:43AM

Like Bill says each coin is individual and go's from ther, either up or down

Steve

keyman64 · July 2, 2013 3:53AM

The sale history in CoinFacts includes the juice. Sounds like you might be talking about a fairly common coin with 5 recent auction sales....although, without more info it is really hard to know. Sounds like $400 shipped might be a fair offer....but not likely an offer that would be accepted considering the price that the dealer is asking. If we are talking about a PCGS slab with a green football on it...and the population of green football coins in this grade are low and the auctions that are listed are all non- green football average for the grade...and this one seems really nice for the grade then you might have to pay up for it...maybe $475-$530 is the right price? Lots of different factors at play. Good Luck!

BillJones · July 2, 2013 4:02AM

The numbers shown on the PCGS "Coin Facts" site are retail numbers. They should include any buyers' fees that are connected with auctions.

When it comes to items that are rarely traded most any price guide must be token under advisement. Usually the price for such pieces is speculative, and previous auction results might be your best guide. Beyond it gets down to how much you want the item, how often you have seen it, how long you have been looking, how other examples looked that you have seen and yes, "your gut."

For more common stuff that is traded regularly, the price guides do apply. If a series has been "dead" for long time, like many commemorative coins both old and modern, and modern Proof sets, the numbers on the dealer wholesale "Gray Sheet" might be appropriate or even on the high side.

The real answer is you have to study the series you are collecting and use any of the available materials, including the "Coin World" price guides, Coin Facts, auction results and quotes you get from dealers at the shows.

This might sound hard, but compared to placing prices on tokens and medals, which don't have much in the way of pricing information on a formal basis, like a price guide, pricing coins is a piece of cake.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 2, 2013 4:09AM

Every coin is different, despite the grade. Like a snowflake, so is every person. What's fair for one, may insult another, and vice versa. The fun is in finding a place that works in the middle.

BryceM · July 2, 2013 4:17AM

Your question does not have a simple answer.

A person with a lifetime of collecting experience might arrive at a different number than a dealer with a lifetime of experience. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. If the coin in question is rare (if another wouldn't be expected to come to market for a year or more) you might have to pay whatever he is asking. If your coin is common, but has exceptional or unique qualities in its grade (fantastic toning, perfect strike, etc) the asking price might not move much. If your coin is common and has no special qualities, shop around a little and find one that has good value for the assigned grade.

1000 people will play this game 1000 different ways though. If your offer isn't acceptable, the dealer will certainly tell you so. IME, when dealers offer you a discount from list price they aren't often willing to go much lower. There are many exceptions to this. It really depends on the coin, the series, the dealer, and whether or not he is in a buying or selling mood.

Auction sale prices listed in CoinFacts usually include the buyer's fee.

BAJJERFAN · July 2, 2013 4:21AM

<< <i>I am aware that prices vary from one guide to another and that guides are just that, a guide. I have found that the PCGS price for a given coin seems to be on the high end for that coin. I think of the price listed in Coin Facts as the top end for that grade. (Not a complaint, just my observation.)

In coin facts it will list the last 5 sell prices for a given grade from different dealers and auction houses. Is the price listed the sell price of the coin or the sell price with the (in the case of Heritage 17 1/2%) buyers fee?

As an example, a PCGS MS-65 coin is listed as $475, the last 5 sell prices range between $350-$420. Dealer is asking $590 for the coin but will give a 10% discount to $530 for the coin. What is a fair offer? Something between $350-$420? Add 17 1/2% to offer say $400-$$490? PCGS at $475? Or, is $530 a good deal... I'll take it?

I realize a dealer can ask any price they want and as a buyer, I can offer any price I want to pay. The reason for my question is I am trying to learn how to make a fair offer. I don't want to lowball a dealer for a coin but I don't want to over pay on every coin I buy. If the people can agree, fine. If not, OK, and move on.

Thanks for any help in this matter.

Ms >>

If you look up the cert number using the cert verification utility it usually gives recent sales prices and may possibly show what the dealer paid for the coin. If the dealer paid $490 anything less is a no go from the start. As to whether $530 is a good deal, it depends on the coin. If you could sell it for more than $530 it probably is.

Kove · July 2, 2013 4:40AM

Retail price guides like the PCGS guide often serve to protect the value of nice coins for the grade. And nice coins do sell for PCGS retail. You just need to be able to tell that you're looking at a really nice coin before paying PCGS price guide. I'm not being glib about this. Many people don't have the eye to tell when something truly is nice. They either end up paying more for an average coin, or they miss out on the truly nice coins because they couldn't tell the difference and didn't pull the trigger.

Average coins will sell for less than retail guides. It doesn't mean the guide is wrong, it means the coin isn't what the publisher of the price guide had in mind for something that should fetch full retail money.

Auction records are a reasonable place to look to compare pricing. However, many coins that sell at auction today really shouldn't go that route. The coins that are truly fit for the auction environment are coins where it is difficult to determine what the current market value is. Examples are scarce coins that don't show up often, or coins with special characteristics like beautiful toning.

Many of the auction records you see are for coins that should never have sold at auction. Auctions are notorious dumping grounds for crap that somebody couldn't sell, or didn't want to attach their name to. Look through auction lot viewing and you'll see plenty of puttied gold, questionable toning, and 64.7 coins in 65 holders.

Just know that many auction records will be for coins that are low end for the grade. Prices for nice coins will usually exceed many auction results.

Steve27 · July 2, 2013 4:47AM

I find the best way to determine price is go directly to Heritage, Teletrade, and/or ebay completed auctions and use their pictures/closing prices. If I could sell my PCGS slabbed coins at the PCGS price guide price, I would probably sell everyone I own.

sparky64 · July 2, 2013 4:59AM

I've learned about this recently and gravitate towards auction results of the last 2 or 3 years.
I look at PCGS price guide, Grey Sheet and yes, even Red Book. Still leaning towards auction results.

I've also learned by just studying these results about eye appeal and prices realized.

Of course I'm shopping for common to semi-common widgets.

For upper echelon coins I have to defer.

Metalsmith · July 2, 2013 6:27AM

Thanks for the replies.

Everything is subject to change in this hobby and each coin should be judged on its own merits, but this information gives me a way to evaluate an asking price of a coin.

My thought

If I take the last 5 reported sales of the listed coin and divide by 5 I get an average price of a coin.
If the average price is close to or above the PCGS guide price then the coin is trending up. If way below then down.
If it is nice coin I add my premium to the coin (eye appeal).
The above gives me what I believe is a fair price.
If the dealer price is close to my price we can work a deal, I come up some more or he comes down or both.
If the dealer wants a large premium over my price I move on.

I believe in the free market system and a dealer can ask any price they want. I as a buyer will buy at a price I am willing to pay. Where I have had a problem is when I evaluate a coin at say $200 and the dealer wants $500. I keep thinking I am missing something to be off that much.

As I said in an earlier post I want to be in the ballpark and make a decent offer. I am not trying to lowball my offers and see what sticks.

Ms

Steve · July 2, 2013 6:32AM

When price guide questions come up, EVERYBODY has a different answer. I think the hobby would be served best if a two price guide was developed for every coin. To make it work right the prices listed would have to be based on slabbed certified coins issued by PCGS and NGC. As I said, each coin would have a wholesale price AND a retail price attached to it. The wholesale price would represent the amount of money a knowledgeable dealer would pay for a coin from a knowledgeable collector. The retail price would represent the amount of money a knowledgeable dealer would want to receive for a coin from a knowledgeable collector. The current PCGS price guide is a good example of thie retail number. Somewhere in between the two numbers would be a fair price that the dealer and the collector would settle on based on many of the specific coin differences talked about in this thread. If the hobby had this two price listing I think many of the questions about pricing of coins would be minimized and people would not feel they are beeing taken advantage of. Steve

RedTiger · July 2, 2013 10:09AM

There are too many variables for any kind of set answer. What may not have been mentioned is that it also depends on who is making the offer. Many collectors don't like to hear this, but it does matter. A collector that buys every show from a dealer is likely to get a warmer reception. A dealer making an offer to buy might be able to get the coin for a lot less, especially if the buying dealer has done favors for the selling dealer. One hand washes the other, and relationships matter. There is also some game playing. A newbie walk up is likely to get stoned, especially if the selling dealer has sized them up as a newbie prior to the offer. Plenty of dealers play the game, and some will quote different prices to different potential buyers. Again, some collectors don't like to hear it, and not that many dealers will confess in public to doing that, but it sometimes happens.

The obvious answer is to offer what you think is reasonable, regardless of what the dealer is asking. If your offer is $200 on a $500 quote, so be it. If after a couple of no's or heck no responses, a person will learn that a particular dealer isn't for them and walk on past next time. It is part of the dance of the bourse and now the Internet. Developing relationships and knowing dealers is a key part of the hobby, especially for those that are price and/or quality conscious. It is also a reason a double price guide would be of no greater value than a single price guide, just twice as much work for about the same usefulness. There are too many variables. The same coin trades for such a wide variety of prices having a second guide would be of next to no value. For those that want a wholesale guide, take the retail guide price and divide by two, and for a lot of common coins that will be ballpark. For low value non-bullion coins, divide by three, and that might be close to average dealer offers.

roadrunner · July 2, 2013 10:31AM

The juice has to be included into retail price guides, otherwise you'd be about 15-17.5% short of average retail. The price guide would then become more a wholesale guide.
We'd then have to subtract 17.5% from all bourse coin transactions as well to even the field.

Cougar1978 · July 2, 2013 12:29PM

The PCGS price guide is just one element as to what I consider Market Retail. I also consider CW Trends, Kause, and the pricelist put out by L&C Coins. I recently purchased a coin in an ebay auction for $76. The CU price guide price is 120 and CW is 150. I put 150 in the market retail column of my spreadsheet with a notation that the source is CW. AS far as minimum sell that will be 109 (a 30% margin) that I put in the cost+ column. The computer selects the higher one to go on the price sticker. For my ebay store I price the coin at 150 BIN / Make Offer with the computer to reject offers below 109. On the slab I put a cost code for the 76 and a price of 150. At a show of course I would like 150 but may let it go for a little lower say 125. I consider auction prices a sort of wholesale like the CDN. You have to look at the actual coin in coin facts to really make sense of the auction prices. A high auction realized could be for a rainbow toner. A low price could be a dog. About a week after I got the coin above a person made an offer of 135 and the coin sold. The buyer got a good deal at 10% below market and I made a 44% margin.

Sometimes the price guide price is completely thrown out. I recently bought a coin off Teletrade, a really nice PCGS AU58 Dollar for more than its retail price (once the their fee was allocated to the cost) in the sources above. Not to worry I priced it at cost + a 30% margin for my store. I was skeptical it would sell because I was considerably above published retail prices but heck the coin looked BU (I was initially tempted to crack it and see what NGC would say but on close examination I decided it was very borderline more like AU 59.5 - perhaps this is what the buyer did looking to get a MS grade, I would love to know what they graded it if indeed he submitted). However one day later after receiving it the coins sold! The price of a rare coin is what a willing buyer and seller will agree on. Price guides are merely a reference point, not gospel.

Price guide prices, dealer retail price lists can vary wildly - A 1952-D Franklin Half in MS65 FBL is $475 (Krause coin pirces) $425 L&C, $185 CU, and CW $200. Which one would you select?

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