"That is why I usually have to depend on people like Wondercoin and his children to come up with the top quality coins. I do not mind paying up for those coins, because I know the labor and costs involved in finding them."
"Sonoranmonsoon" - Case in point ... you had mentioned to me about 4 or 5 months ago that you wanted a nice 1971-S Ike Silver Dollar PCGS-PR69DCAM (FS-103). That would be a pop 1/0 coin. I developed a plan to try to make it happen. First, I had Justin screen the roughly 1,500 PCGS-PR69DCAM 1971-S coins I have in stock. No FS-103 there. Then, I bought around (900) additional fresh 1971-S Proof Ike Dollars and paid to have them slabbed at PCGS. Lauren spent the past couple days screening the fresh (900) coins I just got back from PCGS this week. No FS-103. I estimate that I have about $36,000 into this project just with the cost of the coins and grading fees so far (plus labor). No FS-103. Now, I have the task of selling 2,400 Ike Dollars dated 1971-S (in a down silver market no less)!
I see that you just bought a PR67CAM FS-103 from Segoja. I don't blame you for picking up that "hole filler" while I (and probably others) work at trying to slab an FS-103 in higher grade. I will need a few months to regroup as I try to sell off 2,400 single coins and raise money for the next round of attempts at this task.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i> Why do we have to discuss and decide, as collectors, which coins will perform better in the future? Why not just decide on our own which coins interest us and just go with it? Do we really need a "willing dealer" to help us decide which direction to take?
I always thought of deciding to collect coins, or anything else, to be more spontaneous and less pre-meditated than you present. >>
I think investing in coins is a very bad idea for almost everyone. The possible rewards are huge but the risks are incalculable and few succeed. Meanwhile those who collect collect much more than just coins but they collect knowledge, friendships, and contacts. Collectors tend to be able to turn their knowledge into profit while investors tend to collect coins that are available more than coins that are likely to increase. Be this as it may, though, I personally avoid becoming interested in items that are "hot". It hasn't always worked but I've never jumped on a band- wagon no matter how appealing it's been.
People should decide what to collect primarily on what interests them most and only secondarily on whether or not it's a possible area for growth. If your primary interest is civil war then col- lecting colonials or moderns makes no sense. If you're into silver then you should stick to silver.
I collect a lot of differenrt things but then, I'm a generalist and almost everything interests me. Also, and more importantly having very diverse interests allows me to fiund needed items almost any- where and there's almost no competition in many of these areas.
To each his own. And this is where, I believe there are big changes coming. It just seems wholly unnatural to me that the demand for things like clad quarters would be so tiny. Part of the reason is inertia and part is that the established hobby generally hold these coins in disdain. But it hardly stops here. The list of reasons is extensive and these are the reasons that in 48 years there has been so little interest. A certain percentage of newbies are going and have been starting to col- lect these coins and it "seems" that the demand is getting up high enough to simply abolish the tiny remaining supply. This demand is still small and if history is any guide there might be some piling on as more collectors want to get in on the action. But this is irrelevant since it's the lack of supply to satisfy existing demand that seems to be developing in the shorter term. This will occur if the eco- nomy is really improving because there will be no more supply of mint sets to dealers.
There is another factor that will likely be in play here. While the number of serious clad collectors isn't great there is a fairly significant number of less serious collectors who are intending and even working on upgrading their sets. This is probably in the tens of thousands. As soon as they see prices escalating they will be motivated to complete their upgrades. The supply of nice coins simply can't meet the current demand without a steady flow of mint sets to the market.
I expect demand to continue to increase just as it has for a third of a century even if I'm wrong. In the long run the supply must fail and I'm thinking sooner rather than later.
<< <i>CK, I actually did start with a circ Jeff nickel collection and think it's delivered the most bang for the buck. This was in 2006, and over the next 2 years, I found all dates/mints except about 12--including 7 of the war nickels. Many of these were in amazing condition, too. By 2010, however, I noticed a dramatic drop in what I found in rolls AND the quality had plunged--I presume, from counting machines. I don't search rolls anymore, but am so glad I did this when I did. >>
I think you have me convinced to try it.
I searched very large numbers of nickels from 1957 to 1973 and found everything back to the '31-S.
I'll probably just try the '65 to date to see what's out there and how they have worn. I keep a fairly close eye on all coins so probably won't be in for too many surprises.
<<I had been collecting for 10 years when the first clad coinage was released in the fall of 1965. I had eagerly anticipated the 1965 quarters, but was extremely disappointed whenI received the first ones. They were dull, had streaks of grease on them, and the relief was shallower than on the silver coins they replaced>>
Although all clad quarters have less relief than the silver ones, the relief on UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and E PLURIBUS UNUM was increased for 95% of the date's production after the initial release.
Demand--How do you increase awareness and create demand?? WRITE A GOOD BOOK ON MODERNS(clad coinage), their scarcity and availability !!! That's how. Before Overton or Newcomb, Sheldon,etc., there was not much demand for varieties. The demand went up after the books were released and information was available. If a good book on moderns were available it would increase demand for varieties and give awareness to scarcity of issues in high grades. The available information is only available in bits and pieces.
All the information on moderns needs to be consolidated into one good book. A variety listed in a book is usually valued higher then a variety that is not listed. The information needs to be easily available to the coin collecting public. I would estimate that 70-80 % or more of coin collectors do not even know that this forum exists. For instance how many collectors have even heard of type B or C or other type reverse quarters?? I learned about them on this forum.
Yes, the people are missing the point about moderns because a good book about moderns (clad coinage) is needed.
In your OP where do you get your statistics on demand? >>
Oh! Those are really easy ones. It's primarily experience with a minimum of recording and computation. I do keep a running tally of the coins I've seen with some in my head and some on paper. I actually have quite a bit of confidence in percentages expressed in decimals. When I round them off then I have less confidence. Such as the '69-D/ D dime I express as 5.5% but it's probably slightly higher. I don't have much of a feel at all for the '74-DDO half and say 7 or 8% but frankly it could be higher or lower. I find these in bunches so much that my sample could be highly contaminated. Some people claim it's much more common but I can't reconcile that with what I've actually seen.
I've been looking at the coins and the mint sets since 1965 and collecting then since 1972. It's important to me to know what's easy and what's tough because I will want to trade all my overpriced material for under- priced coins when the market begins getting established. It hasn't really been possible in the past because people don't have the coins except the high grade ones and I have less interest in trading those. Even trading raw coins has provided pretty limited success.
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might.
In your OP where do you get your statistics on demand? >>
Oh! Those are really easy ones. It's primarily experience with a minimum of recording and computation. I do keep a running tally of the coins I've seen with some in my head and some on paper. I actually have quite a bit of confidence in percentages expressed in decimals. When I round them off then I have less confidence. Such as the '69-D/ D dime I express as 5.5% but it's probably slightly higher. I don't have much of a feel at all for the '74-DDO half and say 7 or 8% but frankly it could be higher or lower. I find these in bunches so much that my sample could be highly contaminated. Some people claim it's much more common but I can't reconcile that with what I've actually seen.
I've been looking at the coins and the mint sets since 1965 and collecting then since 1972. It's important to me to know what's easy and what's tough because I will want to trade all my overpriced material for under- priced coins when the market begins getting established. It hasn't really been possible in the past because people don't have the coins except the high grade ones and I have less interest in trading those. Even trading raw coins has provided pretty limited success. >>
Im not talking about the coins you keep track of.....Im talking about the comments like there are a million new collectors starting sets.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might. >>
your estimate of albums sold as a marker for demand even if accurate no way reflects these same people are looking to upgrade.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Im not talking about the coins you keep track of.....Im talking about the comments like there are a million new collectors starting sets. >>
These would be "collectors" in the broadest sense of the term. This would include even the most casual of collectors filling folders or setting them in cans. It is based largely on the the sales of folders and albums and on the disappearance of higher grade coins from circulation. It's also based on anecdotal evidence and the percoieved increase in interest. This is hardly a sudden thing but a growing phenomenon and most of these collectors might never go on to collect anything at all. But the folders are out there and there are some being filled. There are many millions of casual collectors of the clad states quarters and obviously it just doesn't take a very large percentage of them to add up to one million.
While these casual collectors have little impact on the coin market even in aggregate some will go on to have an effect in one area or another and disproportionate percentages can be expected in moderns generally and clad quarters specifically.
Again though, this is all just about possible future demand and I don't believe there is even sufficient supply for current demand which is really quite tiny. Future demand can't affect prices in the here and now.
There is not enough supply of nice attractive coins for a mass market. This will never change because the coins are gone.
<< <i>Again though, this is all just about possible future demand and I don't believe there is even sufficient supply for current demand which is really quite tiny. Future demand can't affect prices in the here and now.
There is not enough supply of nice attractive coins for a mass market. This will never change because the coins are gone. >>
Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Wow--nickles back to 31-S in change? That's amazing, CK.
Regarding numbers of collectors, I have no foundation for questioning or confirming anyone's estimates, but judging by the number of TV shows geared toward collectors (2 on PBS, the Auction Kings, etc, etc...), collecting in general seems very strong right now. How many are doing coins? Who knows, but it does seem conceivable we'd seen an increase.
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might. >>
your estimate of albums sold as a marker for demand even if accurate no way reflects these same people are looking to upgrade. >>
I would tend to agree with this. Just because I want to fill my Whitman clad quarter folder with coins (and I would be willing to bet that fewer than 25% of albums get filled by more than 50%) does not necessarily mean that I am going to require a solid gem, or even an unc, for the 1982 hole.
I see that you just bought a PR67CAM FS-103 from Segoja. I don't blame you for picking up that "hole filler" while I (and probably others) work at trying to slab an FS-103 in higher grade. I will need a few months to regroup as I try to sell off 2,400 single coins and raise money for the next round of attempts at this task.
Wondercoin >>
Yes, I bought the 103 from Sego, as it was becoming apparent that DDO was going to be tough and "filling the hole" with a 67 would be the best route for now. It was in a ngc 68 holder, but I lost a point when I crossed it. I am kind of rooting for you to stumble on an 801, even if it grades poorly that is going to be the prize.
<< <i>Why should nearly 200,000 sm dts that appeal primarily to variety collectors command so lofty a price when 15,000 regular issue dimes and quarters needed by all regular issue col- lectors go begging? >>
A couple of thoughts on this...
1. I suspect there are more cent collectors than dime and quarter collectors, maybe even combined. 2. Since there is a hole for the small date cent in albums, collectors will want to fill it even if they're not really variety collectors.
a point and a question: the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us??
In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your guide as to what is the best you can reasonably expect. This is a line from Bern Nagengast and his book, The Jefferson Nickel Analyst.
But I've changed it a little to suit me. In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
Of course, we can change it again to suit this thread. In searching out modern coinage, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
I have adhere to this line of thinking for many years, improving on my skills to pursue that special coin that would reward my efforts.
A true collector must know and build his collection with the experience he has gained over the years. Knowing whether a coin is the best that he can possibly find for any date in a series.
Tackling the above reasoning gave me an advantage over my selection of coins. Locating that coin that stood out way above your average coin.
But there was a time when I could find such great coins for little money. But the competition increased ten-fold when PCGS started grading my series. Many dealers themselves jumped on the bandwagon when prices exploded so they would search their own inventory and what came their way before I could get to them myself.
And of course, a collector would need a great deal of patience in searching out the best. A few people in this thread have expressed that they have little patience in dealing with moderns. Makes me question what quality of coins they have.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My response was not to Keets- but it in general my 4 words should be amended:
There are a significant number of collectors that fill holes and holes, more often than not, are not filled with graded crack outs as that will impact the value ot the coin. Unfortunately, an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. It seems that a bell curve is created based on the dynamics- we can argue about values, demand and surviving population in various grades but at the end of the day, the subjective component associated with grading dictates the end result.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>...an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. >>
Based on the albums I've seen over the years, the hole fillers are the largest of those groups. So I guess the question is- how many move from "hole filler" to "wanting gem examples" or "seeking the finest known"? I have no evidence for this, but my suspicion (again, based on the collections I've seen) is very, very few.
<< <i>a point and a question: the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Keets, other than stirring the pot, what can you add? I made a legitimate point in a respectful fashion that has not been addressed, and I find your dismissive remark to be well outside the bounds have the otherwise polite tone in this thread.
CK can address the point, for himself, and will do so in his own time without being insulting. He's just not like that. Others can learn from him.
Well, I am definitely a hole-filler, as I am just not willing to start spending money for (most) upgrades, but I do like to think that I can spot an upgrade when I see it. Honestly, I also have more fun finding things from circulation than going to buy a coin--again with a few exceptions. Or perhaps my comments focus on modern circulation coinage mostly. I will shell out for a nice new Mint product, though they've gotten few and far between.
If a good book on moderns were available it would increase demand for varieties and give awareness to scarcity of issues in high grades. The available information is only available in bits and pieces.
True but not possible! Because there's no way to put 10 years of exams into someone's head who has never looked at them the way a veteran collector does. I have shown more higher quality nickels in pictures than most collectors but yet have yielded little interest. Before anyone can understand the greater parameters of a high quality coin, they must have some interest, experience, background, have walked on a few miles. Like some one said about Bower's interest in a 1804 dollar, his response being, 'that's nice, but show him a token, he'll be all over it.
So what's the answer? It would really help if the economy would start striving again where people have money to blow. that's one problem. I use to think we had a great problem with a professional grading service's inability to grade moderns at a higher standards but it still boils down to the collector's level of experience in recognizing,grading high quality coins. A collector thinks a low grade MS67 coin is great to have based on his experience, who's to say he can't spend his money the way he wants to. Only time will prove otherwise. Heck, it's reasonable to think that there is a higher demand among collectors who have the experience of a beginner than one who is advanced and also has the coins to back him. But the financial aspect of the equation comes into play, the number of years it takes to build that higher quality set and the amount of patience one must possess to achieve such a goal. The problem is similar to a collector who wants 6 step coins only but than finds that those coins will be expensive to acquire even when there is little demand for them. But likewise, I know what I had to go to collect those coins so it really boils down to who has them and those who don't. How are values applied to such coins? Try figuring that one out.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
I seem to recall, the US Mint estimated that there were tens of millions of collectors of State quarters -right? If true, I estimate that well under 1% of these collectors ever wanted a high grade specimen (as judged by how few slabbed pieces there are in existence and even with the few pieces the "two grade" under pop top coins generally sell for next to nothing).
I have said repeatedly regarding these modern coins that it is all about DEMAND. Demand, demand, demand. At the moment, I believe there is little demand for many of these pop top coins. Case in point - I am currently selling for a customer POP 1/0 PCGS-MS68FB Clad Roose Dimes (a number of different dates from the 1980's and 1990's). These coins are incredibly difficult to locate and slab. Yet, only a small % of the coins I have sold to this point in the $3,000's range where the coins are priced. If they were dated a few years earlier and had silver in them, they would be worth double or triple the asking price. And, if they were pop 1/0 MS68FB Merc Dimes ... they would be worth a ton of money. The demand is simply weak for these clad coins at this moment. In fact, it appears the stronger demand is coming from the year set collectors who are building these year sets for themselves, their kids or grandkids. I believe this will change and demand will increase sharply in the years ahead as CK suggests ... it just hasn't happened yet.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
These cost more this year than what their silver counterparts cost yesteryear. Who knows what tomorrow will bring ? The new reverse designs are nicer than what I'd anticipated, yesteryear, too.
<< <i>a point and a question: the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Here's a data point for Keets: at my local club with an average attendance of 40 people, there are exactly zero that are interested in high grade, high priced modern clad issues. Zero. I've never met anyone in person with much interest in the issues. Yes on the forum, there is Russ, MadMarty, Cladking and a handful of others on this forum, along with several big dealers, but in the real world, I never see any folks interested. Show presence is in the 0.5% range for for clad coins in dealer cases. It is a bit higher if counting coins in 2x2s in binders, but it is 1000x lower if the market value is considered, not just counting number of coins for sale.
I've done ballpark estimates before of the number of numismatic coin collectors in the U.S., and that number is about 100,000. That is for collectors that have paid over $100 for a numismatic coin (bullion stackers excluded unless they buy numismatic) in the past year or two. To hear a number like 40,000 collectors of high grade clad, it is bloviated. I'd guess 2,000 to 5,000 collectors that have any interest in spending $50+ for a clad coin, excluding errors, excluding die-varieties. Exclude the Ike series, and the number is likely cut in half again. If we go down to raw coins, the price is more like $10. Cladking even said as much, there was virtually zero interest in his raw material at anywhere near market prices, no matter how nice.
Whether the number of collectors is growing or shrinking is pure conjecture. I would guess it is shrinking because folks have less money to spend on hobbies than 5 or 10 years ago. Food and gasoline are where many collectors have to spend now. Of course if folks knew they could flip the clads, the number of people interested goes way up, but I'm talking about real collectors, not profiteers.
The other issue is that the high end of the clad market is almost entirely dependent on the health of the big two grading companies. The grading industry may continue with minor changes, or the table might be flipped and the industry may look entirely different. For classic coins, there are so many dealers, so many old hands, there will continue to be markets for the classics. For top pops of all stripes, classics and moderns, it is hard to say, but it is a lot of uncertainty.
Anyway, Cladking himself has said that investment is the wrong reason for collecting clad coins, so I don't see much to argue about. The projections about the future are wishful and wistful thinking. In any case, only the most passionate clad collectors have any realistic shot at making money on these things. If a person's passion is clad, I say more power to them. As I always say, collect what you like and enjoy the hobby.
RT, Outstanding post, but you wasted 20 minutes of your life. Anyone who questions, analyzes, or challenges modern coins that is not one of flag bearers is considered to be a detractor, a no-nothing, a hater, etc.
It is not lost on me that you could say that you despise bust halves or Saints or IHCs, and nobody would bat an eye. However, if you question the assertion that 40,000 people cannot go on living without an MS-65 1982 quarter, and some people act like you have committed a heinous act detrimental to the hobby.
I have equal respect for the collector of seated quarters as I do for clad quarters, but the former sure seems a lot less defensive and edgy about it.
<< <i>Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong. >>
I really estimate everything.
But my estimate of current demand is not "tens of thousands". If true specific demand were this high many of the coins would already be unavailable. "Tens of thousands" is more in the nature of the number of collectors who could "jump on the bandwagon" but it's not these people who I believe might push the prices significantly higher in the short term. It's the three thousand or so active and serious collectors who are going to bump up against supply constraints as soon as the supply of mint sets (and to a lesser extent, proof sets) is interrupted by an improving economy. Most nice gemmy clads exist in numbers of at least a couple or three thousand but this is the limit for some of the tougher dates.
The "million" casual collectors are not going to suddenly rush out and decide to commit lots of effort, time, or money to their collections even if the prices increase. But the fact is that there's nothing attracts interest like success and it's likely that this success will be "widely" reported. It might not make the Sunday supplements but it will attract some attention.
Time has a way of flying but even more it leaps and bounds. This will be a minor leap with major impact on the market for moderns.
<< <i>Wow--nickles back to 31-S in change? That's amazing, CK.
Regarding numbers of collectors, I have no foundation for questioning or confirming anyone's estimates, but judging by the number of TV shows geared toward collectors (2 on PBS, the Auction Kings, etc, etc...), collecting in general seems very strong right now. How many are doing coins? Who knows, but it does seem conceivable we'd seen an increase. >>
I had most of the buffalo set but had to buy about a dozen coins.
It is partly the casual demand for coins that is about to disrupt these markets. While the total number of mint sets and the like sold by TV isn't very high it is a significant factoir in current demand for the last 15 years now. A significant percentage of sets that come on the market are siphoned off by these out- lets and they are a ready source of demand for unwanted and cherried sets. These sellers are part of what has caused the raw material for modern collections to be "consumed". This isn't to say that these sets won't ever come back on the market but "all" buyers are casual and attrition will be relatively high while the quality will tend to be a little low. They will trickle back on the market for decades.
<< <i>I would tend to agree with this. Just because I want to fill my Whitman clad quarter folder with coins (and I would be willing to bet that fewer than 25% of albums get filled by more than 50%) does not necessarily mean that I am going to require a solid gem, or even an unc, for the 1982 hole. >>
The total number of coins graded by the services is becoming rather extensive and constitutes more evidence for total demand. While many of these coins are submitter "mistakes" and sell for peanuts, most are not.
A typical Unc '82-P isn't going to break the bank even if the demand increases substantially. There are lots of AU's that will serve to limit the potential and the coin exists in numbers that are substan- tial relative current demand. However, finding a nicely made example is difficult and this is one of the lowest survivorships for moderns. I've seen many thousands of these in BU and the vast major- ity are ho hum at best and positively ugly at worst. I don't think there are 2,000 nicely made well preserved '82-P quarters. I still think the demand is about to swamp the supply and it will occur as more and more collectors find they can't upgrade their coins.
In the past it was just a matter of redistributing the supply to suit the demand. Now the demand is starting to exceed the supply.
<< <i>Why should nearly 200,000 sm dts that appeal primarily to variety collectors command so lofty a price when 15,000 regular issue dimes and quarters needed by all regular issue col- lectors go begging? >>
A couple of thoughts on this...
1. I suspect there are more cent collectors than dime and quarter collectors, maybe even combined. 2. Since there is a hole for the small date cent in albums, collectors will want to fill it even if they're not really variety collectors. >>
It is what it is but it just doesn't make sense to me. It seems there would have to be hundreds of times more cent collectors for this to exist. You're right that it's because the sm dt is in most albums but it still seems a big anomaly.
<< I've done ballpark estimates before of the number of numismatic coin collectors in the U.S., and that number is about 100,000. That is for collectors that have paid over $100 for a numismatic coin (bullion stackers excluded unless they buy numismatic) in the past year or two. >>
On eBay there have been more than 160,000 sales of U.S. coins over $100 (excluding the bullion category) in the past three months alone. Add non-eBay sales and the number is undoubtedly much higher. Granted that some of these were multiple sales to the same buyer, that's still enough sales in a three-month time frame that my estimate of collectors that have paid over $100 for a numismatic coin in the past year or two is much higher than 100,000.
<< <i> the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Well... ...there is no certainty that these will ever be collected and they do have nearly half a century of history on their side. I'm of the belief that the best argument on our side is that world moderns are screaming higher with no sign of letting up. Look at the Russian coins of the '60's to '90's where gains of 200 fold (20,000%) aren't too uncommon. It's true that most US moderns are more available but the potential demand is far higher as well.
<< <i>In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your guide as to what is the best you can reasonably expect. This is a line from Bern Nagengast and his book, The Jefferson Nickel Analyst.
But I've changed it a little to suit me. In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
Of course, we can change it again to suit this thread. In searching out modern coinage, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
I have adhere to this line of thinking for many years, improving on my skills to pursue that special coin that would reward my efforts.
A true collector must know and build his collection with the experience he has gained over the years. Knowing whether a coin is the best that he can possibly find for any date in a series.
Tackling the above reasoning gave me an advantage over my selection of coins. Locating that coin that stood out way above your average coin.
But there was a time when I could find such great coins for little money. But the competition increased ten-fold when PCGS started grading my series. Many dealers themselves jumped on the bandwagon when prices exploded so they would search their own inventory and what came their way before I could get to them myself.
And of course, a collector would need a great deal of patience in searching out the best. A few people in this thread have expressed that they have little patience in dealing with moderns. Makes me question what quality of coins they have. >>
PCGS and the services actually helped clad collectors because no one graded them at first but nickels suddenly got lots more demand and lots of competition.
There aren't too many coins I have that I wouldn't work on improving. There are a few that simply stand head and shoulders above the best but most exist on a continuum with each of the finest coins in a very narrow range. I really like those head and shoulders coins even where they might have some small problem.
Ironically one of the head and shoulders coins is a nickel and might actually be improvable. There are a very few knockout '70-S nickels. When I found the first I believe it was a fluke but I've found more in the same league with it.
<< <i> the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Well... ...there is no certainty that these will ever be collected and they do have nearly half a century of history on their side. I'm of the belief that the best argument on our side is that world moderns are screaming higher with no sign of letting up. Look at the Russian coins of the '60's to '90's where gains of 200 fold (20,000%) aren't too uncommon. It's true that most US moderns are more available but the potential demand is far higher as well. >>
Thanks so much for a very interesting thread cladking!! And for the most part everyone here did contribute some very good reasoning.
I must say that after reading this entire thread cladking has summed it up in the paragraph above
<< <i>My response was not to Keets- but it in general my 4 words should be amended:
There are a significant number of collectors that fill holes and holes, more often than not, are not filled with graded crack outs as that will impact the value ot the coin. Unfortunately, an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. It seems that a bell curve is created based on the dynamics- we can argue about values, demand and surviving population in various grades but at the end of the day, the subjective component associated with grading dictates the end result. >>
The people collecting out of circulation will have no appreciable impact on the supply of nice "gemmy coins" and neither will the people collecting at the high end of the spectrum. It's true that removing the MS-67 coins from the pool of MS-64+ and better coins will reduce the pool but they exert no specific demand for the supply of MS-64 to MS-66. It is in this range (the "sweet spot" as some call it) that the demand is predicted to outstrip the supply. If the price of MS-65 really does go higher there won't be a flood of MS-67's being sold at MS-65 prices to suppress the price. It's not my contention that the price for the highest grades will increase but I'm sure these coins and these markets will take care of themselves (at least they have for four decades now). There might be a little spillover demand into lower grades and even into circulation since many clads really are tough in attractive condition in any grade.
<< <i>So I guess the question is- how many move from "hole filler" to "wanting gem examples" or "seeking the finest known"? I have no evidence for this, but my suspicion (again, based on the collections I've seen) is very, very few. >>
Yes. This is an imponderable. It's a question only time can answer.
I wouldn't expect the percentage to be extremely high because I don't expect future generations of collectors to collect the same way we have. But I do believe that the grading companies and the internet will permanently affect the behavior of collectors to prefer higher quality. I also expect the very nature of clad coins to have this exact same effect since the quality of clads tends to be so poor and because so many of the coins are unattractive. An indian cent collector can just about take the coins as they come and most of his collection will be attractive and the few that aren't will tend to be fairly inexpensive upgrades. But a memorial cent or modern quarter collection "as they come" will be mostly unattractive and some of the upgrades will be difficult.
It's difficult to predict just how widespread an interest there will be in modern collections. After so many years it's easy enough to predict fairly small demand continuing indefinitely. But nearly 70% of the American population has never known anything in circulation except clad and this just keeps going up and up. Even in another fifty years, no matter what happens, large numbers of people are going to remember using clads and state quarters in circulation.
I don't believe it's very likely that the demand will always be as small as it is now.
<< <i>Well, I am definitely a hole-filler, as I am just not willing to start spending money for (most) upgrades, but I do like to think that I can spot an upgrade when I see it. Honestly, I also have more fun finding things from circulation than going to buy a coin--again with a few exceptions. Or perhaps my comments focus on modern circulation coinage mostly. I will shell out for a nice new Mint product, though they've gotten few and far between. >>
There's no wrong way to collect coins if you're having fun.
I get a lot of fun out of searching circulation and working on these sets.
In some ways it's more fun than searching BU rolls and mint sets.
<< <i> If a good book on moderns were available it would increase demand for varieties and give awareness to scarcity of issues in high grades. The available information is only available in bits and pieces.
True but not possible! Because there's no way to put 10 years of exams into someone's head who has never looked at them the way a veteran collector does. I have shown more higher quality nickels in pictures than most collectors but yet have yielded little interest. Before anyone can understand the greater parameters of a high quality coin, they must have some interest, experience, background, have walked on a few miles. Like some one said about Bower's interest in a 1804 dollar, his response being, 'that's nice, but show him a token, he'll be all over it. >>
Nickels are a bear. Sure, it's great to find a Gem but they are so damn frustrating. When you find a nice Gem quarter obverse the odds the odds that the reverse is a Gem go up. With a Gem nickel obverse you can almost bet the reverse will be a mess. If you find a two sided Gem then odds go up that the dies were badly aligned or worn out. Almost every date has problems with planchet marking.
It takes far more experience to grade nickels than most of the other moderns probably and then you have the issue of FS. These don't correlate too well with Gem quality either.
I love nickels but finding top notch nickels is on par with top notch Ikes; they are tough.
<< <i> Here's a data point for Keets: at my local club with an average attendance of 40 people, there are exactly zero that are interested in high grade, high priced modern clad issues. >>
Yes! And this is the exact same statistic I discovered in the Moscow Coin Club back in the 1980's. They simply had no interest in Russian moderns; none of them and not in any grade. It's one of the reasons I started setting aside Russian moderns. Of course I was trying to find a supply of them and learned that there probably was no supply in the country unless it was lost somewhere.
Now the Soviet moderns are highly sought and the clads still aren't.
<< <i> To hear a number like 40,000 collectors of high grade clad, it is bloviated. >>
No. I said there were 40,000 people collectors. Actually the combined total of the sets Littleton and the TV shows have sold greatly exceeds this but most of these collections will no longer exist. These are not the "serious collectors". I said two or three thousand collectors are actually working to upgrade but even all of these won't necessarily spend a lot of money for a single coin. But in aggregate they do exert demand and supplying that demand is what will push up the price when the backlog of raw material is worked off.
<< <i>Whether the number of collectors is growing or shrinking is pure conjecture. I would guess it is shrinking because folks have less money to spend on hobbies than 5 or 10 years ago. Food and gasoline are where many collectors have to spend now. Of course if folks knew they could flip the clads, the number of people interested goes way up, but I'm talking about real collectors, not profiteers. >>
I see more and more collectors almost everyday. There are more questions on the sites about new coins and more sites all the time. This isn't to say there's a lot of demand; merely that it's growing and has been for a very long time.
<< <i>The other issue is that the high end of the clad market is almost entirely dependent on the health of the big two grading companies. >>
I'm not talking about the top end of the market. I'm talking about two or three grades under the top end.
<< <i> In any case, only the most passionate clad collectors have any realistic shot at making money on these things. If a person's passion is clad, I say more power to them. As I always say, collect what you like and enjoy the hobby. >>
It's not about making money.
It's about a mountain of dynamite and sparks flying everywhere. There are enough sparks that this thread is irrelevant but people in the future might want to have something to point to.
<< <i>Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong. >>
I really estimate everything.
But my estimate of current demand is not "tens of thousands". If true specific demand were this high many of the coins would already be unavailable. "Tens of thousands" is more in the nature of the number of collectors who could "jump on the bandwagon" but it's not these people who I believe might push the prices significantly higher in the short term. It's the three thousand or so active and serious collectors who are going to bump up against supply constraints as soon as the supply of mint sets (and to a lesser extent, proof sets) is interrupted by an improving economy. Most nice gemmy clads exist in numbers of at least a couple or three thousand but this is the limit for some of the tougher dates.
The "million" casual collectors are not going to suddenly rush out and decide to commit lots of effort, time, or money to their collections even if the prices increase. But the fact is that there's nothing attracts interest like success and it's likely that this success will be "widely" reported. It might not make the Sunday supplements but it will attract some attention.
Time has a way of flying but even more it leaps and bounds. This will be a minor leap with major impact on the market for moderns. >>
Here is your 'estimate' from your post on the previous page:
"There is another factor that will likely be in play here. While the number of serious clad collectors isn't great there is a fairly significant number of less serious collectors who are intending and even working on upgrading their sets. This is probably in the tens of thousands. As soon as they see prices escalating they will be motivated to complete their upgrades........"
I think your estimate is wrong.
Also it seems Keets thinks you based this estimate on "plenty of data" and its not conjecture and speculation........Can you or Keets provide that data please?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i> I have equal respect for the collector of seated quarters as I do for clad quarters, but the former sure seems a lot less defensive and edgy about it. >>
I may be the edgiest, but I'm trying not to show it.
In the great scheme of things it doesn't really matter what happens so long as the species goes on and, God willing, a few people collect coins. This just isn't important to the average collector. But, heck, we're here to talk coins and clads are my favorite coins. Certainly a big change in the status quo which may be on the horizon is worthy of note.
Good thread. I like nice coins. I think clads are coins. I'll pay what I believe is a fair price for a nice coin whether its raw or holdered. I'm not competing with anyone or investing. I'm collecting. I like a bargain when I can find one, and love it when the local B&M's rob some collectors album sets and I can buy them around bid. I also love looking through the proof and mint sets before they get shipped to the TV sellers. I used to sell some of what I found. I sold many moderns for four figures, one for five. Then it dawned on me that I was drifting toward selling rather than collecting. I collect now, and I'm much happier not selling. I greatly enjoy collecting, looking, grading, and talking to my dealer buddies.
I'm glad CladKing gets it, and is willing to post.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
For the life of me I can't understand some of these challenges to Cladking's estimates and data. It makes absolutely no sense to challenge his but give no data to support the challenge. Oy! Cladking is a trailblazer. No one has assessed these issues before. That he is willing to share his 40+ years of methodology, his research and his findings sets him apart from almost everyone in the hobby. Not only that but he has an engaging passion for collecting and pleasant writing style. Please keep 'em comin' Cladking.
Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
<< <i>For the life of me I can't understand some of these challenges to Cladking's estimates and data. It makes absolutely no sense to challenge his but give no data to support the challenge. Oy! Cladking is a trailblazer. No one has assessed these issues before. That he is willing to share his 40+ years of methodology, his research and his findings sets him apart from almost everyone in the hobby. Not only that but he has an engaging passion for collecting and pleasant writing style. Please keep 'em comin' Cladking. >>
Oy vay! It makes no sense to blindly accept speculation by anyone as fact, especially when it sounds incredulous. I enjoy the discussion, even when detractors like Keets try to disrupt it.
Comments
In your OP where do you get your
statistics on demand?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
"Sonoranmonsoon" - Case in point ... you had mentioned to me about 4 or 5 months ago that you wanted a nice 1971-S Ike Silver Dollar PCGS-PR69DCAM (FS-103). That would be a pop 1/0 coin. I developed a plan to try to make it happen. First, I had Justin screen the roughly 1,500 PCGS-PR69DCAM 1971-S coins I have in stock. No FS-103 there. Then, I bought around (900) additional fresh 1971-S Proof Ike Dollars and paid to have them slabbed at PCGS. Lauren spent the past couple days screening the fresh (900) coins I just got back from PCGS this week. No FS-103. I estimate that I have about $36,000 into this project just with the cost of the coins and grading fees so far (plus labor). No FS-103. Now, I have the task of selling 2,400 Ike Dollars dated 1971-S (in a down silver market no less)!
I see that you just bought a PR67CAM FS-103 from Segoja. I don't blame you for picking up that "hole filler" while I (and probably others) work at trying to slab an FS-103 in higher grade. I will need a few months to regroup as I try to sell off 2,400 single coins and raise money for the next round of attempts at this task.
Wondercoin
<< <i>
Why do we have to discuss and decide, as collectors, which coins will perform better in the future? Why not just decide on our own which coins interest us and just go with it? Do we really need a "willing dealer" to help us decide which direction to take?
I always thought of deciding to collect coins, or anything else, to be more spontaneous and less pre-meditated than you present. >>
I think investing in coins is a very bad idea for almost everyone. The possible rewards are
huge but the risks are incalculable and few succeed. Meanwhile those who collect collect much
more than just coins but they collect knowledge, friendships, and contacts. Collectors tend to
be able to turn their knowledge into profit while investors tend to collect coins that are available
more than coins that are likely to increase. Be this as it may, though, I personally avoid becoming
interested in items that are "hot". It hasn't always worked but I've never jumped on a band-
wagon no matter how appealing it's been.
People should decide what to collect primarily on what interests them most and only secondarily
on whether or not it's a possible area for growth. If your primary interest is civil war then col-
lecting colonials or moderns makes no sense. If you're into silver then you should stick to silver.
I collect a lot of differenrt things but then, I'm a generalist and almost everything interests me. Also,
and more importantly having very diverse interests allows me to fiund needed items almost any-
where and there's almost no competition in many of these areas.
To each his own. And this is where, I believe there are big changes coming. It just seems wholly
unnatural to me that the demand for things like clad quarters would be so tiny. Part of the reason
is inertia and part is that the established hobby generally hold these coins in disdain. But it hardly
stops here. The list of reasons is extensive and these are the reasons that in 48 years there has
been so little interest. A certain percentage of newbies are going and have been starting to col-
lect these coins and it "seems" that the demand is getting up high enough to simply abolish the
tiny remaining supply. This demand is still small and if history is any guide there might be some piling
on as more collectors want to get in on the action. But this is irrelevant since it's the lack of supply
to satisfy existing demand that seems to be developing in the shorter term. This will occur if the eco-
nomy is really improving because there will be no more supply of mint sets to dealers.
There is another factor that will likely be in play here. While the number of serious clad collectors
isn't great there is a fairly significant number of less serious collectors who are intending and even
working on upgrading their sets. This is probably in the tens of thousands. As soon as they see
prices escalating they will be motivated to complete their upgrades. The supply of nice coins simply
can't meet the current demand without a steady flow of mint sets to the market.
I expect demand to continue to increase just as it has for a third of a century even if I'm wrong. In
the long run the supply must fail and I'm thinking sooner rather than later.
<< <i>CK, I actually did start with a circ Jeff nickel collection and think it's delivered the most bang for the buck. This was in 2006, and over the next 2 years, I found all dates/mints except about 12--including 7 of the war nickels. Many of these were in amazing condition, too. By 2010, however, I noticed a dramatic drop in what I found in rolls AND the quality had plunged--I presume, from counting machines. I don't search rolls anymore, but am so glad I did this when I did. >>
I think you have me convinced to try it.
I searched very large numbers of nickels from 1957 to 1973 and found everything back to the '31-S.
I'll probably just try the '65 to date to see what's out there and how they have worn. I keep a fairly
close eye on all coins so probably won't be in for too many surprises.
Ya' never know unless ya' look.
Although all clad quarters have less relief than the silver ones, the relief on UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and E PLURIBUS UNUM was increased for 95% of the date's production after the initial release.
All the information on moderns needs to be consolidated into one good book. A variety listed in a book is usually valued higher then a variety that is not listed. The information needs to be easily available to the coin collecting public. I would estimate that 70-80 % or more of coin collectors do not even know that this forum exists. For instance how many collectors have even heard of type B or C or other type reverse quarters?? I learned about them on this forum.
Yes, the people are missing the point about moderns because a good book about moderns (clad coinage) is needed.
Bob
Where do you get these statistics?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Cladking,
In your OP where do you get your
statistics on demand? >>
Oh! Those are really easy ones. It's primarily experience with a minimum of recording and computation.
I do keep a running tally of the coins I've seen with some in my head and some on paper. I actually have
quite a bit of confidence in percentages expressed in decimals. When I round them off then I have less
confidence. Such as the '69-D/ D dime I express as 5.5% but it's probably slightly higher. I don't have much
of a feel at all for the '74-DDO half and say 7 or 8% but frankly it could be higher or lower. I find these in
bunches so much that my sample could be highly contaminated. Some people claim it's much more common
but I can't reconcile that with what I've actually seen.
I've been looking at the coins and the mint sets since 1965 and collecting then since 1972. It's important to
me to know what's easy and what's tough because I will want to trade all my overpriced material for under-
priced coins when the market begins getting established. It hasn't really been possible in the past because
people don't have the coins except the high grade ones and I have less interest in trading those. Even trading
raw coins has provided pretty limited success.
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might.
<< <i>
<< <i>Cladking,
In your OP where do you get your
statistics on demand? >>
Oh! Those are really easy ones. It's primarily experience with a minimum of recording and computation.
I do keep a running tally of the coins I've seen with some in my head and some on paper. I actually have
quite a bit of confidence in percentages expressed in decimals. When I round them off then I have less
confidence. Such as the '69-D/ D dime I express as 5.5% but it's probably slightly higher. I don't have much
of a feel at all for the '74-DDO half and say 7 or 8% but frankly it could be higher or lower. I find these in
bunches so much that my sample could be highly contaminated. Some people claim it's much more common
but I can't reconcile that with what I've actually seen.
I've been looking at the coins and the mint sets since 1965 and collecting then since 1972. It's important to
me to know what's easy and what's tough because I will want to trade all my overpriced material for under-
priced coins when the market begins getting established. It hasn't really been possible in the past because
people don't have the coins except the high grade ones and I have less interest in trading those. Even trading
raw coins has provided pretty limited success. >>
Im not talking about the coins you keep track of.....Im talking about the
comments like there are a million new collectors starting sets.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might. >>
your estimate of albums sold as a marker for demand even if accurate no way
reflects these same people are looking to upgrade.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Im not talking about the coins you keep track of.....Im talking about the
comments like there are a million new collectors starting sets. >>
These would be "collectors" in the broadest sense of the term. This would include even the most casual
of collectors filling folders or setting them in cans. It is based largely on the the sales of folders and albums
and on the disappearance of higher grade coins from circulation. It's also based on anecdotal evidence and
the percoieved increase in interest. This is hardly a sudden thing but a growing phenomenon and most of these
collectors might never go on to collect anything at all. But the folders are out there and there are some being
filled. There are many millions of casual collectors of the clad states quarters and obviously it just doesn't take
a very large percentage of them to add up to one million.
While these casual collectors have little impact on the coin market even in aggregate some will go on to have
an effect in one area or another and disproportionate percentages can be expected in moderns generally and
clad quarters specifically.
supply for current demand which is really quite tiny. Future demand can't affect prices in the here and
now.
There is not enough supply of nice attractive coins for a mass market. This will never change because
the coins are gone.
<< <i>Again though, this is all just about possible future demand and I don't believe there is even sufficient
supply for current demand which is really quite tiny. Future demand can't affect prices in the here and
now.
There is not enough supply of nice attractive coins for a mass market. This will never change because
the coins are gone. >>
Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Regarding numbers of collectors, I have no foundation for questioning or confirming anyone's estimates, but judging by the number of TV shows geared toward collectors (2 on PBS, the Auction Kings, etc, etc...), collecting in general seems very strong right now. How many are doing coins? Who knows, but it does seem conceivable we'd seen an increase.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>.....tens of thousands looking to upgrade their sets......
Where do you get these statistics? >>
This "estimate" is just based on the sales of albums and anecdotal evidence.
I'd guess it's about 40,000 but it's a tricky number because of definitions and the quality of the evidence.
Don't forget there are always ways to check such estimates based on prices like the '83-P quarter.
This is an estimate rather than a statistic. 10.1% of '70-S cents in mint set are small dates and there are "tens of thousands" of clad quarter collections whose collector isn't extremely "serious". These are collectors who won't or haven't put a lot of effort or money into upgrades but would like to upgrade a few coins and might. >>
your estimate of albums sold as a marker for demand even if accurate no way
reflects these same people are looking to upgrade. >>
I would tend to agree with this. Just because I want to fill my Whitman clad quarter folder with coins (and I would be willing to bet that fewer than 25% of albums get filled by more than 50%) does not necessarily mean that I am going to require a solid gem, or even an unc, for the 1982 hole.
<< <i>
I see that you just bought a PR67CAM FS-103 from Segoja. I don't blame you for picking up that "hole filler" while I (and probably others) work at trying to slab an FS-103 in higher grade. I will need a few months to regroup as I try to sell off 2,400 single coins and raise money for the next round of attempts at this task.
Wondercoin >>
Yes, I bought the 103 from Sego, as it was becoming apparent that DDO was going to be tough and "filling the hole" with a 67 would be the best route for now. It was in a ngc 68 holder, but I lost a point when I crossed it. I am kind of rooting for you to stumble on an 801, even if it grades poorly that is going to be the prize.
<< <i>Why should nearly 200,000 sm dts that appeal primarily to variety collectors command so
lofty a price when 15,000 regular issue dimes and quarters needed by all regular issue col-
lectors go begging? >>
A couple of thoughts on this...
1. I suspect there are more cent collectors than dime and quarter collectors, maybe even combined.
2. Since there is a hole for the small date cent in albums, collectors will want to fill it even if they're not really variety collectors.
the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us??
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
This is a line from Bern Nagengast and his book, The Jefferson Nickel Analyst.
But I've changed it a little to suit me.
In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
Of course, we can change it again to suit this thread.
In searching out modern coinage, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
I have adhere to this line of thinking for many years, improving on my skills to pursue that special coin that would reward my efforts.
A true collector must know and build his collection with the experience he has gained over the years. Knowing whether a coin is the best that he can possibly find for any date in a series.
Tackling the above reasoning gave me an advantage over my selection of coins. Locating that coin that stood out way above your average coin.
But there was a time when I could find such great coins for little money. But the competition increased ten-fold when PCGS started grading my series. Many dealers themselves jumped on the bandwagon when prices exploded so they would search their own inventory and what came their way before I could get to them myself.
And of course, a collector would need a great deal of patience in searching out the best. A few people in this thread have expressed that they have little patience in dealing with moderns. Makes me question what quality of coins they have.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
There are a significant number of collectors that fill holes and holes, more often than not, are not filled with graded crack outs as that will impact the value ot the coin. Unfortunately, an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. It seems that a bell curve is created based on the dynamics- we can argue about values, demand and surviving population in various grades but at the end of the day, the subjective component associated with grading dictates the end result.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>...an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. >>
Based on the albums I've seen over the years, the hole fillers are the largest of those groups. So I guess the question is- how many move from "hole filler" to "wanting gem examples" or "seeking the finest known"? I have no evidence for this, but my suspicion (again, based on the collections I've seen) is very, very few.
<< <i>a point and a question:
the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Keets, other than stirring the pot, what can you add? I made a legitimate point in a respectful fashion that has not been addressed, and I find your dismissive remark to be well outside the bounds have the otherwise polite tone in this thread.
CK can address the point, for himself, and will do so in his own time without being insulting. He's just not like that. Others can learn from him.
True but not possible! Because there's no way to put 10 years of exams into someone's head who has never looked at them the way a veteran collector does. I have shown more higher quality nickels in pictures than most collectors but yet have yielded little interest. Before anyone can understand the greater parameters of a high quality coin, they must have some interest, experience, background, have walked on a few miles. Like some one said about Bower's interest in a 1804 dollar, his response being, 'that's nice, but show him a token, he'll be all over it.
So what's the answer? It would really help if the economy would start striving again where people have money to blow. that's one problem. I use to think we had a great problem with a professional grading service's inability to grade moderns at a higher standards but it still boils down to the collector's level of experience in recognizing,grading high quality coins. A collector thinks a low grade MS67 coin is great to have based on his experience, who's to say he can't spend his money the way he wants to. Only time will prove otherwise. Heck, it's reasonable to think that there is a higher demand among collectors who have the experience of a beginner than one who is advanced and also has the coins to back him. But the financial aspect of the equation comes into play, the number of years it takes to build that higher quality set and the amount of patience one must possess to achieve such a goal.
The problem is similar to a collector who wants 6 step coins only but than finds that those coins will be expensive to acquire even when there is little demand for them. But likewise, I know what I had to go to collect those coins so it really boils down to who has them and those who don't. How are values applied to such coins? Try figuring that one out.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I have said repeatedly regarding these modern coins that it is all about DEMAND. Demand, demand, demand. At the moment, I believe there is little demand for many of these pop top coins. Case in point - I am currently selling for a customer POP 1/0 PCGS-MS68FB Clad Roose Dimes (a number of different dates from the 1980's and 1990's). These coins are incredibly difficult to locate and slab. Yet, only a small % of the coins I have sold to this point in the $3,000's range where the coins are priced. If they were dated a few years earlier and had silver in them, they would be worth double or triple the asking price. And, if they were pop 1/0 MS68FB Merc Dimes ... they would be worth a ton of money. The demand is simply weak for these clad coins at this moment. In fact, it appears the stronger demand is coming from the year set collectors who are building these year sets for themselves, their kids or grandkids. I believe this will change and demand will increase sharply in the years ahead as CK suggests ... it just hasn't happened yet.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
These cost more this year than what their silver counterparts cost yesteryear. Who knows what tomorrow will bring ? The new reverse designs are nicer than what I'd anticipated, yesteryear, too.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>a point and a question:
the point-----Cladking has spent considerable time focused on this area of the Hobby which has given him plenty of data to base his opinions on, not just conjecture and speculation.
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Here's a data point for Keets: at my local club with an average attendance of 40 people, there are exactly zero that are interested in high grade, high priced modern clad issues. Zero. I've never met anyone in person with much interest in the issues. Yes on the forum, there is Russ, MadMarty, Cladking and a handful of others on this forum, along with several big dealers, but in the real world, I never see any folks interested. Show presence is in the 0.5% range for for clad coins in dealer cases. It is a bit higher if counting coins in 2x2s in binders, but it is 1000x lower if the market value is considered, not just counting number of coins for sale.
I've done ballpark estimates before of the number of numismatic coin collectors in the U.S., and that number is about 100,000. That is for collectors that have paid over $100 for a numismatic coin (bullion stackers excluded unless they buy numismatic) in the past year or two. To hear a number like 40,000 collectors of high grade clad, it is bloviated. I'd guess 2,000 to 5,000 collectors that have any interest in spending $50+ for a clad coin, excluding errors, excluding die-varieties. Exclude the Ike series, and the number is likely cut in half again. If we go down to raw coins, the price is more like $10. Cladking even said as much, there was virtually zero interest in his raw material at anywhere near market prices, no matter how nice.
Whether the number of collectors is growing or shrinking is pure conjecture. I would guess it is shrinking because folks have less money to spend on hobbies than 5 or 10 years ago. Food and gasoline are where many collectors have to spend now. Of course if folks knew they could flip the clads, the number of people interested goes way up, but I'm talking about real collectors, not profiteers.
The other issue is that the high end of the clad market is almost entirely dependent on the health of the big two grading companies. The grading industry may continue with minor changes, or the table might be flipped and the industry may look entirely different. For classic coins, there are so many dealers, so many old hands, there will continue to be markets for the classics. For top pops of all stripes, classics and moderns, it is hard to say, but it is a lot of uncertainty.
Anyway, Cladking himself has said that investment is the wrong reason for collecting clad coins, so I don't see much to argue about. The projections about the future are wishful and wistful thinking. In any case, only the most passionate clad collectors have any realistic shot at making money on these things. If a person's passion is clad, I say more power to them. As I always say, collect what you like and enjoy the hobby.
Outstanding post, but you wasted 20 minutes of your life. Anyone who questions, analyzes, or challenges modern coins that is not one of flag bearers is considered to be a detractor, a no-nothing, a hater, etc.
It is not lost on me that you could say that you despise bust halves or Saints or IHCs, and nobody would bat an eye. However, if you question the assertion that 40,000 people cannot go on living without an MS-65 1982 quarter, and some people act like you have committed a heinous act detrimental to the hobby.
I have equal respect for the collector of seated quarters as I do for clad quarters, but the former sure seems a lot less defensive and edgy about it.
<< <i>Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong. >>
I really estimate everything.
But my estimate of current demand is not "tens of thousands". If true specific demand were this high
many of the coins would already be unavailable. "Tens of thousands" is more in the nature of the number
of collectors who could "jump on the bandwagon" but it's not these people who I believe might push the
prices significantly higher in the short term. It's the three thousand or so active and serious collectors who
are going to bump up against supply constraints as soon as the supply of mint sets (and to a lesser extent,
proof sets) is interrupted by an improving economy. Most nice gemmy clads exist in numbers of at least a
couple or three thousand but this is the limit for some of the tougher dates.
The "million" casual collectors are not going to suddenly rush out and decide to commit lots of effort, time, or
money to their collections even if the prices increase. But the fact is that there's nothing attracts interest like
success and it's likely that this success will be "widely" reported. It might not make the Sunday supplements
but it will attract some attention.
Time has a way of flying but even more it leaps and bounds. This will be a minor leap with major impact on
the market for moderns.
<< <i>Wow--nickles back to 31-S in change? That's amazing, CK.
Regarding numbers of collectors, I have no foundation for questioning or confirming anyone's estimates, but judging by the number of TV shows geared toward collectors (2 on PBS, the Auction Kings, etc, etc...), collecting in general seems very strong right now. How many are doing coins? Who knows, but it does seem conceivable we'd seen an increase. >>
I had most of the buffalo set but had to buy about a dozen coins.
It is partly the casual demand for coins that is about to disrupt these markets. While the total number
of mint sets and the like sold by TV isn't very high it is a significant factoir in current demand for the last
15 years now. A significant percentage of sets that come on the market are siphoned off by these out-
lets and they are a ready source of demand for unwanted and cherried sets. These sellers are part of
what has caused the raw material for modern collections to be "consumed". This isn't to say that these
sets won't ever come back on the market but "all" buyers are casual and attrition will be relatively high
while the quality will tend to be a little low. They will trickle back on the market for decades.
<< <i>I would tend to agree with this. Just because I want to fill my Whitman clad quarter folder with coins (and I would be willing to bet that fewer than 25% of albums get filled by more than 50%) does not necessarily mean that I am going to require a solid gem, or even an unc, for the 1982 hole. >>
The total number of coins graded by the services is becoming rather extensive and constitutes
more evidence for total demand. While many of these coins are submitter "mistakes" and sell
for peanuts, most are not.
A typical Unc '82-P isn't going to break the bank even if the demand increases substantially. There
are lots of AU's that will serve to limit the potential and the coin exists in numbers that are substan-
tial relative current demand. However, finding a nicely made example is difficult and this is one of
the lowest survivorships for moderns. I've seen many thousands of these in BU and the vast major-
ity are ho hum at best and positively ugly at worst. I don't think there are 2,000 nicely made well
preserved '82-P quarters. I still think the demand is about to swamp the supply and it will occur as
more and more collectors find they can't upgrade their coins.
In the past it was just a matter of redistributing the supply to suit the demand. Now the demand is
starting to exceed the supply.
<< <i>
<< <i>Why should nearly 200,000 sm dts that appeal primarily to variety collectors command so
lofty a price when 15,000 regular issue dimes and quarters needed by all regular issue col-
lectors go begging? >>
A couple of thoughts on this...
1. I suspect there are more cent collectors than dime and quarter collectors, maybe even combined.
2. Since there is a hole for the small date cent in albums, collectors will want to fill it even if they're not really variety collectors. >>
It is what it is but it just doesn't make sense to me. It seems there would have to be
hundreds of times more cent collectors for this to exist. You're right that it's because
the sm dt is in most albums but it still seems a big anomaly.
On eBay there have been more than 160,000 sales of U.S. coins over $100 (excluding the bullion category) in the past three months alone. Add non-eBay sales and the number is undoubtedly much higher. Granted that some of these were multiple sales to the same buyer, that's still enough sales in a three-month time frame that my estimate of collectors that have paid over $100 for a numismatic coin in the past year or two is much higher than 100,000.
<< <i>
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Well... ...there is no certainty that these will ever be collected and they do have nearly half a century
of history on their side. I'm of the belief that the best argument on our side is that world moderns are
screaming higher with no sign of letting up. Look at the Russian coins of the '60's to '90's where gains
of 200 fold (20,000%) aren't too uncommon. It's true that most US moderns are more available but the
potential demand is far higher as well.
<< <i>In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your guide as to what is the best you can reasonably expect.
This is a line from Bern Nagengast and his book, The Jefferson Nickel Analyst.
But I've changed it a little to suit me.
In searching out fully struck Jefferson nickels, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
Of course, we can change it again to suit this thread.
In searching out modern coinage, experience will be your only guide as to what you can reasonably expect will be your best coin.
I have adhere to this line of thinking for many years, improving on my skills to pursue that special coin that would reward my efforts.
A true collector must know and build his collection with the experience he has gained over the years. Knowing whether a coin is the best that he can possibly find for any date in a series.
Tackling the above reasoning gave me an advantage over my selection of coins. Locating that coin that stood out way above your average coin.
But there was a time when I could find such great coins for little money. But the competition increased ten-fold when PCGS started grading my series. Many dealers themselves jumped on the bandwagon when prices exploded so they would search their own inventory and what came their way before I could get to them myself.
And of course, a collector would need a great deal of patience in searching out the best. A few people in this thread have expressed that they have little patience in dealing with moderns. Makes me question what quality of coins they have. >>
PCGS and the services actually helped clad collectors because no one graded them at first but
nickels suddenly got lots more demand and lots of competition.
There aren't too many coins I have that I wouldn't work on improving. There are a few that simply
stand head and shoulders above the best but most exist on a continuum with each of the finest coins
in a very narrow range. I really like those head and shoulders coins even where they might have
some small problem.
Ironically one of the head and shoulders coins is a nickel and might actually be improvable. There are
a very few knockout '70-S nickels. When I found the first I believe it was a fluke but I've found more
in the same league with it.
<< <i>
<< <i>
the question-----besides a contrarian bias and arguementative attitude, what data and experience can detractors such as bidask/RYK and others offer us?? >>
Well... ...there is no certainty that these will ever be collected and they do have nearly half a century
of history on their side. I'm of the belief that the best argument on our side is that world moderns are
screaming higher with no sign of letting up. Look at the Russian coins of the '60's to '90's where gains
of 200 fold (20,000%) aren't too uncommon. It's true that most US moderns are more available but the
potential demand is far higher as well. >>
Thanks so much for a very interesting thread cladking!!
And for the most part everyone here did contribute some very good reasoning.
I must say that after reading this entire thread cladking has summed it up in the paragraph above
.
CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
.
Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
.
More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC FOR SALE
<< <i>My response was not to Keets- but it in general my 4 words should be amended:
There are a significant number of collectors that fill holes and holes, more often than not, are not filled with graded crack outs as that will impact the value ot the coin. Unfortunately, an argument can be made that there are several collecting tiers- those that fill holes; those that want nice examples; those that want GEM examples and those that seek the finest known. It seems that a bell curve is created based on the dynamics- we can argue about values, demand and surviving population in various grades but at the end of the day, the subjective component associated with grading dictates the end result. >>
The people collecting out of circulation will have no appreciable impact on the supply of nice
"gemmy coins" and neither will the people collecting at the high end of the spectrum. It's true
that removing the MS-67 coins from the pool of MS-64+ and better coins will reduce the pool
but they exert no specific demand for the supply of MS-64 to MS-66. It is in this range (the
"sweet spot" as some call it) that the demand is predicted to outstrip the supply. If the price
of MS-65 really does go higher there won't be a flood of MS-67's being sold at MS-65 prices
to suppress the price. It's not my contention that the price for the highest grades will increase
but I'm sure these coins and these markets will take care of themselves (at least they have
for four decades now). There might be a little spillover demand into lower grades and even
into circulation since many clads really are tough in attractive condition in any grade.
<< <i>So I guess the question is- how many move from "hole filler" to "wanting gem examples" or "seeking the finest known"? I have no evidence for this, but my suspicion (again, based on the collections I've seen) is very, very few. >>
Yes. This is an imponderable. It's a question only time can answer.
I wouldn't expect the percentage to be extremely high because I don't expect future generations
of collectors to collect the same way we have. But I do believe that the grading companies and the
internet will permanently affect the behavior of collectors to prefer higher quality. I also expect the
very nature of clad coins to have this exact same effect since the quality of clads tends to be so poor
and because so many of the coins are unattractive. An indian cent collector can just about take the
coins as they come and most of his collection will be attractive and the few that aren't will tend to be
fairly inexpensive upgrades. But a memorial cent or modern quarter collection "as they come" will be
mostly unattractive and some of the upgrades will be difficult.
It's difficult to predict just how widespread an interest there will be in modern collections. After so
many years it's easy enough to predict fairly small demand continuing indefinitely. But nearly 70% of
the American population has never known anything in circulation except clad and this just keeps going
up and up. Even in another fifty years, no matter what happens, large numbers of people are going
to remember using clads and state quarters in circulation.
I don't believe it's very likely that the demand will always be as small as it is now.
<< <i>Well, I am definitely a hole-filler, as I am just not willing to start spending money for (most) upgrades, but I do like to think that I can spot an upgrade when I see it. Honestly, I also have more fun finding things from circulation than going to buy a coin--again with a few exceptions. Or perhaps my comments focus on modern circulation coinage mostly. I will shell out for a nice new Mint product, though they've gotten few and far between. >>
There's no wrong way to collect coins if you're having fun.
I get a lot of fun out of searching circulation and working on these sets.
In some ways it's more fun than searching BU rolls and mint sets.
<< <i> If a good book on moderns were available it would increase demand for varieties and give awareness to scarcity of issues in high grades. The available information is only available in bits and pieces.
True but not possible! Because there's no way to put 10 years of exams into someone's head who has never looked at them the way a veteran collector does. I have shown more higher quality nickels in pictures than most collectors but yet have yielded little interest. Before anyone can understand the greater parameters of a high quality coin, they must have some interest, experience, background, have walked on a few miles. Like some one said about Bower's interest in a 1804 dollar, his response being, 'that's nice, but show him a token, he'll be all over it. >>
Nickels are a bear. Sure, it's great to find a Gem but they are so damn frustrating. When you find
a nice Gem quarter obverse the odds the odds that the reverse is a Gem go up. With a Gem nickel
obverse you can almost bet the reverse will be a mess. If you find a two sided Gem then odds go
up that the dies were badly aligned or worn out. Almost every date has problems with planchet marking.
It takes far more experience to grade nickels than most of the other moderns probably and then you
have the issue of FS. These don't correlate too well with Gem quality either.
I love nickels but finding top notch nickels is on par with top notch Ikes; they are tough.
<< <i>
Here's a data point for Keets: at my local club with an average attendance of 40 people, there are exactly zero that are interested in high grade, high priced modern clad issues. >>
Yes! And this is the exact same statistic I discovered in the Moscow Coin Club back in the 1980's. They
simply had no interest in Russian moderns; none of them and not in any grade. It's one of the reasons
I started setting aside Russian moderns. Of course I was trying to find a supply of them and learned that
there probably was no supply in the country unless it was lost somewhere.
Now the Soviet moderns are highly sought and the clads still aren't.
<< <i> To hear a number like 40,000 collectors of high grade clad, it is bloviated. >>
No. I said there were 40,000 people collectors. Actually the combined total of the sets Littleton and the
TV shows have sold greatly exceeds this but most of these collections will no longer exist. These are not
the "serious collectors". I said two or three thousand collectors are actually working to upgrade but even
all of these won't necessarily spend a lot of money for a single coin. But in aggregate they do exert demand
and supplying that demand is what will push up the price when the backlog of raw material is worked off.
<< <i>Whether the number of collectors is growing or shrinking is pure conjecture. I would guess it is shrinking because folks have less money to spend on hobbies than 5 or 10 years ago. Food and gasoline are where many collectors have to spend now. Of course if folks knew they could flip the clads, the number of people interested goes way up, but I'm talking about real collectors, not profiteers. >>
I see more and more collectors almost everyday. There are more questions on the sites about new coins
and more sites all the time. This isn't to say there's a lot of demand; merely that it's growing and has been
for a very long time.
<< <i>The other issue is that the high end of the clad market is almost entirely dependent on the health of the big two grading companies. >>
I'm not talking about the top end of the market. I'm talking about two or three grades under the top end.
<< <i> In any case, only the most passionate clad collectors have any realistic shot at making money on these things. If a person's passion is clad, I say more power to them. As I always say, collect what you like and enjoy the hobby. >>
It's not about making money.
It's about a mountain of dynamite and sparks flying everywhere. There are enough sparks that this thread
is irrelevant but people in the future might want to have something to point to.
<< <i>
<< <i>Your estimate of supply of attractive coins is one thing but I think your estmate of demand is wrong. >>
I really estimate everything.
But my estimate of current demand is not "tens of thousands". If true specific demand were this high
many of the coins would already be unavailable. "Tens of thousands" is more in the nature of the number
of collectors who could "jump on the bandwagon" but it's not these people who I believe might push the
prices significantly higher in the short term. It's the three thousand or so active and serious collectors who
are going to bump up against supply constraints as soon as the supply of mint sets (and to a lesser extent,
proof sets) is interrupted by an improving economy. Most nice gemmy clads exist in numbers of at least a
couple or three thousand but this is the limit for some of the tougher dates.
The "million" casual collectors are not going to suddenly rush out and decide to commit lots of effort, time, or
money to their collections even if the prices increase. But the fact is that there's nothing attracts interest like
success and it's likely that this success will be "widely" reported. It might not make the Sunday supplements
but it will attract some attention.
Time has a way of flying but even more it leaps and bounds. This will be a minor leap with major impact on
the market for moderns. >>
Here is your 'estimate' from your post on the previous page:
"There is another factor that will likely be in play here. While the number of serious clad collectors
isn't great there is a fairly significant number of less serious collectors who are intending and even
working on upgrading their sets. This is probably in the tens of thousands. As soon as they see
prices escalating they will be motivated to complete their upgrades........"
I think your estimate is wrong.
Also it seems Keets thinks you based this estimate on "plenty of data" and its not conjecture and speculation........Can you or Keets provide that data please?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
I have equal respect for the collector of seated quarters as I do for clad quarters, but the former sure seems a lot less defensive and edgy about it. >>
I may be the edgiest, but I'm trying not to show it.
In the great scheme of things it doesn't really matter what happens so long as the species goes on
and, God willing, a few people collect coins. This just isn't important to the average collector. But, heck,
we're here to talk coins and clads are my favorite coins. Certainly a big change in the status quo which
may be on the horizon is worthy of note.
I'm glad CladKing gets it, and is willing to post.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>For the life of me I can't understand some of these challenges to Cladking's estimates and data. It makes absolutely no sense to challenge his but give no data to support the challenge. Oy! Cladking is a trailblazer. No one has assessed these issues before. That he is willing to share his 40+ years of methodology, his research and his findings sets him apart from almost everyone in the hobby. Not only that but he has an engaging passion for collecting and pleasant writing style. Please keep 'em comin' Cladking. >>
Oy vay! It makes no sense to blindly accept speculation by anyone as fact, especially when it sounds incredulous. I enjoy the discussion, even when detractors like Keets try to disrupt it.