Cladking knows his stuff. I have zero basis for my opinions and respect his immensely. But i think i am missing something here. My belief is that buffalo nickels became more desired after the mint changed designs to jeffersons and buffaloes started disappearing from circulation. As they become less prevalent in pocket change more people start to believe they are scarce and start looking for them and saving them. I think the same thing happened with wheaties. When the mint changes the dime design it will happen again. As for quarters, check your pocket change. I find that the eagle back washingtons now make up less than 50% of circulating quarters. That doesnt make them scarce or valuable. That simply leads me to believe that they will someday become more attractive to the most people as they start to become unusual in circulation. When that happens there will be a domino effect.
As to the condition of clads, i agree that gems can be difficult. But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons.
I think we will see a huge increase in interest as series are retired. Just like in the past. Just my opinion.
<< <i>But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation.
<< <i> It makes no sense to blindly accept speculation by anyone as fact, >>
I certainly wasn't suggesting anything close to this, anymore than I think you are suggesting that I blindly accept unsupported doubts as fact just because someone says so. I can't speak for Cladking but I am guessing he has no such expectation either.
Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
Kudos to all who have posted to this thread. The points of view and opinions expressed in this thread are varied, well thought out and well presented. The discussion has been very good, without posters getting agitated when views and opinions contrary to their are expressed. A great example of why these forums are a good place to hang out, participate, learn and have a little fun.
And I still think it would be very helpful to have high quality photographs of some of the highest quality MS clads and other modern circulating coinage posted (DHeaths' photo of his 1965 Cameo SMS quarter is a great example]. Pictures paint a thousand words, don't you know.
<<Cladking knows his stuff. I have zero basis for my opinions and respect his immensely. But i think i am missing something here. My belief is that buffalo nickels became more desired after the mint changed designs to jeffersons and buffaloes started disappearing from circulation. As they become less prevalent in pocket change more people start to believe they are scarce and start looking for them and saving them. I think the same thing happened with wheaties. When the mint changes the dime design it will happen again. As for quarters, check your pocket change. I find that the eagle back washingtons now make up less than 50% of circulating quarters. That doesnt make them scarce or valuable. That simply leads me to believe that they will someday become more attractive to the most people as they start to become unusual in circulation. When that happens there will be a domino effect.>>
i am glad to hear reports on how the quarters are distributed in other parts of the nation. Here in Massachusetts, state quarters have yet to acheive the 50% point although they are close. Examining 521 quarters in the last month, I found 273 (52.4 %) eagle back, 234 (44.9 %) state, 4 territorials, 6 parks, 2 bi centenial and 1 Bermuda.
Thanks Sanction. I really enjoy the 65 SMS coins. These were not manufactured with much care, and are challenging in cameo or better. When I think of "collecting" moderns, this is the sort of coin that comes to mind.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<<<< But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation. >>
True, but aside from this the cupronickel surface is much harder and wears much better than a silver one.
<< <i><<<< But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation. >>
True, but aside from this the cupronickel surface is much harder and wears much better than a silver one. >>
Well, they may hold up better, but don't you think the counting machines are just destroying the collectability of most clads? As I hinted at earlier, many of the nickels and quarters I saw in rolls a couple of years ago had been extremely gouged out. It made me wonder if it would even be possible to put together a nice worn set from change anymore, and is one reason I stopped searching rolls.
As for the book, we all know who needs to write it--the OP
One last set of pics. This coin came from an OBW roll, and has much of its original luster. That's not something one sees very often anymore except in mint set coins. (72-D Peg leg)
A nice clad toner from my collection.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I'll join the chorus asking for a book, at least an e-book or a website. The op likes to write, has the information. The energy put in on just this one thread would have made a decent dent on the project. If the op wants to see his vision through, a book, ebook or comprehensive website are some ways to go. There are many free hosting sites. The big modern dealers on this forum would likely kick in a few bucks for ads if a hosted site is desired for vanity or a clever URL name.
If money is a concern for an ebook, there are likely some here on the thread that might be sponsors of the book. Some folks use a site such as Kickstarter to raise funds. Anyway for ebooks, a short version PDF probably could be put together in a month or two, a summary version in a week. If a more serious work is desired, obviously that would require more serious resources. If a serious book is desired, there might even be an editor or two lurking about, willing to do it for love of the hobby. The legacy thing can be a big deal for us that are seeing the grey hairs or balding heads.
I'll take the liberty of starting a separate thread for brainstorming on a book.
<< <i>For the life of me I can't understand some of these challenges to Cladking's estimates and data. It makes absolutely no sense to challenge his but give no data to support the challenge. Oy! Cladking is a trailblazer. No one has assessed these issues before. That he is willing to share his 40+ years of methodology, his research and his findings sets him apart from almost everyone in the hobby. Not only that but he has an engaging passion for collecting and pleasant writing style. >>
When you get right down to it counting anything is pretty much impossible. Some things coins are easier since they are easily defined and hold still and some things like "serious collectors" are far more difficult because the definitions and the collectors are in flux. It's probably more informative to look at the changes in the demand more than my estimates of absolute numbers. This standard isn't necessarily a lot easier because these collectors are primarily only visible by what they do and they are rarely directly observed. I didn't actually bump into another modern collector until well into the 1990's. But they certainly existed earlier because we were corresponding regarding sales, trades, and the like. I advertised to buy nice '82 and '83 quarters for $40 in those days and while few coins came in there were enquiries.
Numbers of collectors have simply been increasing no matter how you count or define them. I would guess we didn't hit the first 1000 until around 1998 and we hit the second 1000 around '07. Now it's at 3000. This isn't including the very casual collectors, of course. These are the people who are active- ly upgrading their sets, seeking varieties, or paying premiums for raw coins as well as those seeking graded coins. Most buyers of graded coins are not in this group because I'm not referring to the pop- tops and registry sets. Most of the graded coins in the area I'm talking about are the "mistakes" that were expected to grade higher. Most of the collections are worth perhaps $500 to $1000 and are hard to sell in today's markets because most of the coins are "out of the money". These are pretty serious collectors since they've already done significant work and learned quite a bit to get where they're at. Moderns tend to attract those who have less resources and those who want to spend less money as well as younger people so these collection represent significant outlays for some.
Many of the coins they're buying are raw or selling at deep discounts (as mistakes). But these are active buyers and when the raw coins dry up they will have to seek coins elsewhere. When the raw coins dry up there will be fewer submissions and fewer "mistakes" creating a great deal of pressure on supplies which will almost certainly be made much worse buy an expanding collector base. There simply aren't massive suppies of this sort of material because these coins have never been easy to find and there have never been many people looking. Yes, the coins will "come out of the woodwork" with higher prices but there aren't many coins in the woodwork.
I think what we'll see in the future is a much lower spread in prices between MS-64 and MS-67 and a much higher spread between MS-63 and MS-64. Of course this will vary by date dependent on avail- ability.
<< <i> My belief is that buffalo nickels became more desired after the mint changed designs to jeffersons and buffaloes started disappearing from circulation. As they become less prevalent in pocket change more people start to believe they are scarce and start looking for them and saving them. I think the same thing happened with wheaties. When the mint changes the dime design it will happen again. As for quarters, check your pocket change. I find that the eagle back washingtons now make up less than 50% of circulating quarters. That doesnt make them scarce or valuable. That simply leads me to believe that they will someday become more attractive to the most people as they start to become unusual in circulation. When that happens there will be a domino effect. >>
Certainly obsolescence would be beneficial to the clad quarters and a book or two on the subject could spur demand but these things will come in time. One could say that the eagle reverse design is already obsolete since it's not likely to reappear in the future. There are even books though none specific to clads or clad quarters.
<< <i> But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Yes, they hold up extremely well. Even the older clads that circulated at a much higher velocity are still in good shape. Of course half of them are lost now but the vast majority of the survivors are in VG or better condition. About 35% are culls now and this has been increasingly rapidly for a decade now. Cu/ ni wears very slowly.
In this area states/ park coins make up about 55% of circulating quarters. The number has been creeping higher and will spurt much higher as soon as the economy improves and mintages increase and coins come out of storage. It should hit 60% by the end of the decade everywhere and could hit 65%+ if the FED retires some of the heavily worn coins and culls.
<<Well, they may hold up better, but don't you think the counting machines are just destroying the collectability of most clads?>>
Counting machines, parking meters and casinos have caused damage to many clads, but I am not ready to call it "most". I have noticed that pure nickel Canadian 5 cent pieces seem to have rather deep long straight line scratches on them. Pure nickel is even harder than cupronickel, so something is really digging into them..
While I'm not a clad collector, I'm glad to know there are those who do appreciate them. And I'm also glad we have a member like cladking who is so remarkably knowledgable in this are of numismatics. This has been one of the better threads I've read lately.
On the subject of circulating quarters... it was posited that perhaps 55% in circulation are statehood/parks quarters. Here in central IL I'd say more like 70-80% statehood quarters, maybe more...and virtually no parks quarters. I can't recall the last time I got one in change. I would think that is because the series is still new enough that they are still largely being hoarded, much like it was during the first couple years of the statehood series.
Speaking of the parks/landmarks series of quarters, here in Pittsburgh they very rarely are found in change - I'm not sure if it's a case such as 2009, when the Philly mint just didn't produce much due to the recession, or if there is some hoarding involved. None of the banks in this area are getting new rolls of them (probably cuz they're not ordering them). I am still looking for a 2009-P dime from circulation! I own a store, and we go through 5-6 quarter rolls/week, but I seldom find any of the US Possession/State landmark issues. However, when I have traveled to Chicago, they seem very common - did the Denver mint produce a lot more, or is it just demand & distribution?
BTW - I hope that this thread lives a long life - there is a lot of good information on a wide variety of topics included in the posts. This should be a must read for any newbie that signs in here. It has strayed quite a bit from CK's original post, but IMO much for the better.
Don't you know that it's worth every treasure on Earth to be young at heart? And as rich as you are, it's much better by far, to be young at heart!
<< <i>On the subject of circulating quarters... it was posited that perhaps 55% in circulation are statehood/parks quarters. Here in central IL I'd say more like 70-80% statehood quarters, maybe more...and virtually no parks quarters. I can't recall the last time I got one in change. I would think that is because the series is still new enough that they are still largely being hoarded, much like it was during the first couple years of the statehood series. >>
Most of the post-'10 quarters I see are well mixed in with actively circulating coins. I can catch them before they show any wear but they appear one at a time rather rather than a few which is usually how new coins get into change. Banks no longer provide brand new rolls here. They say there isn't much demand and it was a hassle with the states coins. NW Indiana is not exactly a booming economy but it's been chugging along recovering from the great recession. I understand central IL is still very slow since only farm commodities have improved (and the gains nominal due to inflationary impacts).
I can't account for the high numbers of states coins you're seeing unless there was excessive hoarding and the coins are being released by individuals. Some areas can be pretty isolated at times if the local FED (Springfield) isn't odering or shipping much coin. There have been sev- eral times when local coins can become significantly different than "average". This can be seen in South Florida and Puerto Rico and even the Philly FED can go for significant periods without ordering or importing coins since they tend to have excesses. In the old days quarters would get "mixed in" in only eight years but people don't carry as much change and its velocity has slowed so it takes closer to ten years.
I really believe every point made in the thread, and wish collectors of this material the best.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest"
Cladking, a question on a current clad issue. Could you comment on the 2012s atb quarters which had foreshortened mintages of ~1.4 million each for all 5? Chances to obtain from circulation? Predictions regarding rarity? Does this issue pose the possibility of a being a unique key for the clad coins?
Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
<< <i>Cladking, a question on a current clad issue. Could you comment on the 2012s atb quarters which had foreshortened mintages of ~1.4 million each for all 5? Chances to obtain from circulation? Predictions regarding rarity? Does this issue pose the possibility of a being a unique key for the clad coins? >>
I think they're probably a sleeper that will do well in the long term.
A lot of theseare going to hit circulation because they will be bought to just obtain a couple nice specimens for a collection and the rest spent. Few of the circulated pieces will be found until they are XF or lower. Perhaps most important though is they'll serve to further spice of the entire series.
<< <i>I really believe every point made in the thread, and wish collectors of this material the best.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest" >>
Almost all collectors prefer scarcity to most other considerations or at least we rarely want to pay much more even the greatest coin unless it's scarce. This is the "box of 20" concept; no one is going to include a low grade buffalo in a box of twenty.
Common moderns are not going to ever be very valuable but I believe those that are scarce and those that are scarce in nice condition will increase substantially from current prices which are based on almost no demand at all. This willl show up first in the "common" dates which are elusive in nice attractive condition because they don't exist in mint sets or because nice examples are too scarce in mint sets to meet current demand.
You aren't going to see anyone trading Gem '72-D quarters at $10 anytime soon (if ever) but I believe you'll see dramatic price changes for Gem '72 quarters. Most of these will not be getting slabbed right away but keep in mind that the raw mat- erial for the higher grades isn't goiing to be around either. These can also experi- ence price changes with even very little new demand since availability is much lower.
I have read a lot, but not all all of the reply's to this thread and found that I am with most here in believing that moderns are not and never will be rare.
With the definition of rare as to the coin and not condition. By this I mean that all moderns (omitting varieties and errors) can be and will always be available in GEM (65) for a song.
With that being said I do believe that there are the 4 group of collectors(like someone already mentioned: Hole fillers, best they can buy, Gem, and top pop. There will always be enough moderns to fill the demand for the first 3 groups, but the top pop group is really hard to predict. The number of collectors that would spend thousands for a MS68 when a MS67 can be had for 20 bucks is really small. And I don't see that number increasing by very much in the future. And like I stated above there are plenty of cheap coins of all the moderns to fill whatever demand comes in the future.
I don't collect moderns, but do have all the Roosevelt dimes because I collect ALL dimes and the clad dimes are dimes. In hind site I wish I would have had BJ create me a set of ALL Silver Dimes stopping at 1964, but that ship has sailed. Even at that I have bought all the clads for probably 25 bucks or less....more less than not. The two coins that cost more are the 96-W in 68, which was close to $100 and the 82 NO P which was around $200. And without looking all are 66 or better except the 82 NO P which is 64. I could upgrade the 82 for a couple of hundred, but always find better ways to spend the money. I hardly ever if ever upgraded a clad Roosie.
<< <i>I really believe every point made in the thread, and wish collectors of this material the best.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest" >>
FWIW - I have made a substantially higher amount slabbing/selling 'modern' US & Canadian coins than I have with coins that are thousands times more rare. It harks back to cladking's original point that DEMAND is key. I was fortunate to get some high (top-pop) state quarters graded by pcgs shortly after the program began, and due to the registry set competition, the demand resulted in higher prices than I ever imagined I could get. Then I started submitting some very nice Canadian proof-like sets to pcgs at just about the time that they expanded the registries to include foreign sets. Once again, I was able to turn a very tidy profit after ebay, shipping, grading & all other costs were deducted - but also, the timing of the DEMAND was right, so I was able to leverage that. As Mitch mentions, it took an awful lot of time looking at an awful lot of coins, but the bottom line was well worth it.
Then there is the collection of over 3 dozen very rare 1869-1870 pattern coins (most struck in off-metals, rarity 5 to 7+) that I accumulated over a decade - searching out only the top graded or best looking examples that I could find & afford. Out of the total collection, close to 70% were top-population, and of those, probably 25% were the solo finest graded. They auctioned a while back, and I still haven't done the math, because I know that I might have barely broke even. But I thoroughly enjoyed the hunt for the coins, and they were all beautiful to look at, so I am not gonna complain about not making a profit - I was the owner of pieces of history that had been in Ford, Simpson, Bass, Lemus, Farouk & other prominent collections, and I still have 4 of my favorites to enjoy. This time, DEMAND worked against me, because most collectors don't even attempt to put together complete sets of patterns, unlike Roosies, Mercs, Seated Libs and yes, even statehood quarters.
That's why I consider this such an important thread - all the facets & opinions are proven to be valid - collect what you like, collect with an eye toward future gain, or combine the two - just make sure that you are having fun doing it. You will certainly gain a lot in both knowledge & friends - we have a great community that is always willing to help other collectors. In the past 15-20 years that I have been truly active in numismatics, I have met some wonderful people, and look forward to seeing them again to talk about our latest endeavors.
To the original point, I have found that DEMAND (not rarity or beauty) definitely drives value - the more folks that want an item, the higher the price will be - that is the basic economics of supply & demand. I think that CK's premise is right on, and it is prudent (as well as inexpensive) to pay attention to mintages & surviving examples of coins that will some day be in higher demand - low risk, potentially high reward.
Don't you know that it's worth every treasure on Earth to be young at heart? And as rich as you are, it's much better by far, to be young at heart!
I just slabbed a very neat clad.... a 1999-d new jersey in pcgs-ms68. I believe I slabbed the first one back in 1999/2000. It has taken me about 13 years to slab the pop 2/0 now. I have been searching for this coin actively for the past 13 years. Just another example of an exceedingly scarce piece of clad. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I think this thread really shows the two sides of coin collectors. Those who idly sit on the fence and scoff about certain series they don't collect and those who can spot a high quality coin, no matter what the series. Just about every other coin in my Jefferson nickel collection, someone had to have the wisdom to pull it from a roll or bag, perhaps a mint set and add it to their collection. Pretty much similar to spotting a pretty rock for a rock collection in our youth. But I actually believe there's a code of silence among modern day coin collectors, a hidden agenda collectors carry with them and keep it to themselves, mainly their treasures that may include high quality coins. They don't want to give out too much information about what they collect in fear of being robbed or that they will only increase the competition for those coins. There is a very large group of collectors who are very private and reclusive in what they collect. They don't want anyone to know, not even their family members. But there are collectors who collect coins like golden nuggets. They know their stuff and they are doing quite well. Through my years when I would come across a great collection, mainly by chance, I would advise the collector that it would be wise not to show his coins yet. I believed such great coins would only discourage collectors from collecting coins. The rule of thumb was to always praise others about the coins in their collections, no matter how bad. But the day has come in my life to educate others about these great coins in hopes of selling for a decent profit since none of us will live forever. Yes, there are great coins in every series. They're out there to be had by every means of the hunt. They're not going to simply fall into anyone's lap....for nothing. And that is one fact everyone should know.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
<< <i>I am thinking that most collectors will be satisfied with the best coin they can find that doesn't involve a ten year search or an exponential price jump from one grade to the next. If that happens to be an MS62, that will be good enough. >>
This is possible but the simple fact is an MS-62 clad can look like junk and isn't necessarily "common". I seriously doubt there are even 25,000 1982-P quarters that would grade MS-62 or higher.
Another of the reasons people collect moderns at all is that they can put together nice attractive sets quite cheaply. Right now a Gem set can be had for a couple hundred dollars and a lot of work but when the mint set backlog dries up it will not be achievable at low cost any longer.
I've long believed that most advanced collectors of moderns are going to prefer attractive well-made coins that are relatively clean. By current grading standards this includes very few MS-63 coins, many MS-64 coins and everything higher. This is where the supply of mint sets will dramatically affect the supply of coins because the bulk of these come from mint sets. In many cases there are no rolls anyway.
<< <i>If that price jump happens, my prediction would be that there would be a reassessment of what grade level is acceptable to the collector, not that most collectors would decide to spend considerably more money than they had originally intended. >>
This, too, is true. I'd guess that more people would be priced out of the market entirely than that they'd settle for lower grades. In fact, I'd bet more collectors would turn to nice attractive VF's and XF's from circulation rather than collect low grade Uncs because low grade Unc clad is so unattractive.
Keep in mind, too, that there would be other factors in play if prices did jump. For one many of these collectors would have substantial paper profits in their collections so would feel they're "playing with other peoples' money". Also there's the simple fact that many of these coins aren't really available at current market prices now. A collector might be well willing to spend $20 for the right coin but it lists at $2 so he holds back for fear of overpaying. Higher prices would tend to stabilize and normalize the market.
It's the same phenomenon as trying to stock up in Chinese 1956 5f. They list at $2 but I've found a to- tal of "1" in about 40 years of looking. If I see one at $50 I might not buy it but if the market price jumps to $40 I might jump on it.
The problem with the moderns is lack of demand but all over the world there is demand starting. It will come to the USA as well.
<< <i>I would guess that in the early 1950's no one expected the coins of the day to become as collectible as they are now. If the mint abandons the cent or changes the composition of the nickel due to the cost of nickel, there may be a new batch of collectors out there. Many present collectors got started shortly after silver was eliminated from our coins. I dont know what the future holds, but i think cladking makes a very good point. >>
Yes.
Back in the '50's we were all searching pocket change for rare dates. There weren't any because decades of searching the coins eradicated the scarce dates. But there were lots of varieties that we could have been searching for and finding yet no one was. These are valuable today. It's the same with the Gems of the time. If we had searched Gems we'd have done well also.
The more things change the more they remain the same.
<< <i> I just don't find most nickel coins to be attractive as opposed to silver. I look at the Statue of Liberty half dollar and think, "Wow that would look great in silver, but it's not." Buying bullion just does not turn me on. For the money that I've spent on collector coins I could have huge safe full of gold and silver bullion by now, and I'd be bored as hell with it. >>
This might be part of the reason I find most clads to be unattractive; it's not only that they tend to be poorly made and scratched up but they're not silver. Silver just has an attractive "feel" and "look" to it that clad can't match.
There's probably more to it though since silver almost always look good even with poor surfaces made by worn dies.
<< <i>I have no problem with people collecting moderns and even though they aren't very popular is really just a time thing. Trades didn't really intrest collectors until not to long ago and they still aren't popular.
My only issue is people telling me how rare they are when every B&M I have ever been in has rolls and rolls of every date and calling MS67 rarities when there are hundreds of graded ms66s an thousads of MS65s is missing a fundamental rule of supply and demand. >>
There are very few clads that are truly scarce in Gem other than varieties and special issues. Even the highly vaunted '69-P will probably show up to the tune of a couple thousand in Gem. The '82 and '83 are tougher as well as few Ikes.
This isn't really about supply so much as demand. There are plenty of these if there's no mass market. If there are only a few specialized collectors than the market is just about getting the coins to those who demand them. But, the demand is growing and supply is tiny compared to people believe it to be. The demand can not support a mass market and literally millions of po- tential collectors exist while thousands are actively collecting.
At some point the supply and demand curves will cross and it will probably be if and when the economy improves.
<< <i> I'm one of the last of the dinosaurs, I lived through the change in coins from silver to clad. I actually experienced finding coins of value as a kid from change. None of my kids has experienced that, none of them collect coins. When I grew up, change was important and cool and fun and you could really buy stuff with it. My 19 year old literally throws away any pennies he gets. >>
I started in 1957 and the only true "treasure" I ever found was a '37-D buffalo in XF. It would be worth about a dollar now. I'm not complaining since I found a '50-D nickel in XF that I sold for $25 in 1964 which was about a king's ransom in those days. I've found several coins since 1964 that had a little value (not to mention lots of Gems).
...
<< <i>I don't think there is any significant future in any post 1964 circulating coinage, at least from a "making money because there will be a lot of future demand and limited supply someday" perspective. >>
Again, it's not future demand that I'm talking about, it's current demand. The only reason current demand hasn't swamped the supply is because the great recession caused a massive influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns.
<< <i>I sincerely doubt that in 20 years there will be half as many people collecting coins as now. Nor will that population be as wealthy as the current 55-plus crowd. >>
It's tough to say but I believe the states quarter program, expanding middle class (abroad), and the increased interest from bullion buyers, and growing population, will actually mean a lot more collectors in the future.
I will never forget when I saw my first clad coin in 1965 when it was a novelty.
I distinctly remember I was holding the coin and focusing on the edge and seeing copper and nickel in it that used to be silver and thinking to myself 'wtf' ??
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>the great recession caused a massive influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns. >>
There are so many coins for sale in the individual mint set cellophane squares on ebay, that I see your point about these. Since the figures you gave in 2005, how much do you believe the loss has been (in %) in available modern mint sets?
Markets (governments) can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent.
<< <i>the great recession caused a massive influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns. >>
There are so many coins for sale in the individual mint set cellophane squares on ebay, that I see your point about these. Since the figures you gave in 2005, how much do you believe the loss has been (in %) in available modern mint sets? >>
I would think the percentage loss since then is quite substantial. I haven't paid enough attention to the markets to have a really good feel for it but many of these sets have suffered very high attrition because of melting silver and low prices. Dealers aren't going to ship sets like the '79 and '80 so will cut them up. A lot of these dates are just worth more dead than alive. However the market for singles is weak as well which mitigates the attrition. There just isn't enough money in the singles to bother. Many of the later sets have had staggering attrition because they are available still and cheap.
I doubt a lot of the earlier better dates have been affected as much because they're al- ready so reduced in number the prices have held up a little better but the '68 and '69 got down to melt value so even these are still suffering quite a bit.
It's interesting how strong the price has been on the '70 recently. Perhaps I overestimated the number of survivors in '05.
I can relate to bidask's previous post, to a degree. The point a lot of people are missing about moderns is that when a copper '69S or 72 Lincoln DDO cent sells for a thousand or tens of thousands of dollars, the composition of the coin makes little difference. Every couple of years the mint releases what I like to deem as "A hotcake".
The key is "finding" and taking advantage before they "go through the roof". If the idea is to flip, then flip. It all balances out.
I just spent the weekend with a bunch of guys with the best clad ikes on the planet. they know their series like the back of their hand and know what top pop coins are strong and which ones are weak. they buy strong coins. they pay over price guide for coins they really want. they are now and will always be that small elite class of collectors in this series and I honestly believe that when they sell their sets that it will be a big deal for people who want to buy into this series at an elite level.
There is ample evidence at hand that there is a shift in once ignored series. 1965-1970 kennedy half dollars in high grades with nice surfaces and color are going strong. attractive 1950s toners in D and S mints in 66 and higher are selling for good money.
clad quarters from certain segments of the 1965-1998 period are starting to wake up. What's holding moderns back, I think, is that the market makers are over-relying on their idea of the value of the coin based on the pop report and setting prices too high. if let alone, prices would organically go where they should be.
Mitch, at what price do you think those rosies sell if you start an auction with no reserve?
<< <i>I just spent the weekend with a bunch of guys with the best clad ikes on the planet. they know their series like the back of their hand and know what top pop coins are strong and which ones are weak. they buy strong coins. they pay over price guide for coins they really want. they are now and will always be that small elite class of collectors in this series and I honestly believe that when they sell their sets that it will be a big deal for people who want to buy into this series at an elite level.
There is ample evidence at hand that there is a shift in once ignored series. 1965-1970 kennedy half dollars in high grades with nice surfaces and color are going strong. attractive 1950s toners in D and S mints in 66 and higher are selling for good money.
clad quarters from certain segments of the 1965-1998 period are starting to wake up. What's holding moderns back, I think, is that the market makers are over-relying on their idea of the value of the coin based on the pop report and setting prices too high. if let alone, prices would organically go where they should be.
Mitch, at what price do you think those rosies sell if you start an auction with no reserve? >>
I wonder if emerging markets weren't actually a lot simpler in the old days and much of what has delayed moderns is the complexity. There was an emerging market back in the days before grading services for high grade circulating clad, cents, and FS nickels but it seemed to actually slow down when coins began being cerified. Perhaps collectors to took a "wait and see" attitude but then there were no moderns being submitted so the markets simply froze at previous levels but traded in raw coins.
The nature of the markets has changed with the advent of the services. To a real degree now the high end of the market is a product of the services. Those who make the pop tops expend great effort and cost and price the coins partly on that rather than strictly supply and demand. It's still difficult to gauge supply and demand due to thinness of the market but also the very nature of the high end coins; no two pop tops are really identical and each individual who desires the coins has a highly variable price he's willing to pay based on the specific at- tributes of the coin and how much he values it over his current example. This might persist somewhat even as the market begins to mature.
But this lack of price guidance is across the board. A really nice circulated example of a clad coin can be quite "scarce". Not scarce in the sense that only 10 examples exist but scarce in the sense that only a couple hundred exist but they're mixed in with 55 billion circulating quar- ters. Finding a needle in a haystack is child's play compared to finding a nice attractive '69 25c in XF. You can't even send off to Littleton for it because no one saved the coins and now all of them except a few outliers are worn down yet the price guides don't even list the coin as be- ing collectible. Most of the guides list tough coins like a gemmy '82-P quarter at less than whol- sale for the BU roll price yet you'd need about 4 rolls to find one gemmy coin!! This is the grade range where the price guides are of no real help because coins aren't sold in this range except by chance. Dealers often keep a 2 x 2's with a few of each date clads since they get them cheap from sets and collections and it's not at all unusual that there are MS-65 and MS-66 clads in them. Many collectors seek these for a cheap source of upgrades. They search sets for this grade and as well as eBay. There's no sense of urgency since the sets have always been widely available and right now the market is swamped with them.
It's this massive inefficiency in the markets that have held them back so long. The coins can be rare but they are priced so low that there's no chance potential buyers can find them except through pure blind luck. Then when they are identified by the market as being valuable as the result of weak de- mand, sellers have no solid benchmark for setting prices. I seriously doubt that registry set collect- ing is ever going to become a mass market even in moderns. This isn't impossible by a long sight but it's tough to imagine large numbers of collectors seeking the finest 1970 dime he can find. It's much easier to see a continuation of the growing demand for nice chBU and gemmy clads. It's easy to imagine people sending in that MS-65 '70 dime intentionally rather than as a mistake because there's enough demand to warrant slabbing. Instead of the best few hundred of each clad getting slabbed it's simple logic that as demand continues to grow it will require the top few thousand of each to be slabbed. When the top few thousand of some of these are all safely tucked away in a slab some of those slabs are going to say MS-60 on them and contain unattractive coins. There simply is not an endless supply of attractive clads.
Charles. I can not say for sure. Thinly traded coins sometimes need to find their own level as some of those dimes certainly will this year. In fact, nearly half have sold at this point if memory serves me right (close to $15, 000 to $20, 000 sold thus far). And, once they are sold another chance to obtain this or that example might be very difficult or nearly impossible in the short term or perhaps longer. I remember when pop top memorial cents were thinly traded and even late date wheat cents in top grade. Those days turned out to be quite an opportunity to the foward thinking astute collector. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The needle in the haystack metaphor is how many collectors will always visualize the top pops when the mintage and survival of the coins in any condition is so huge.
<< <i>Cladking, a question on a current clad issue. Could you comment on the 2012s atb quarters which had foreshortened mintages of ~1.4 million each for all 5? Chances to obtain from circulation? Predictions regarding rarity? Does this issue pose the possibility of a being a unique key for the clad coins? >>
I think they're probably a sleeper that will do well in the long term.
A lot of theseare going to hit circulation because they will be bought to just obtain a couple nice specimens for a collection and the rest spent. Few of the circulated pieces will be found until they are XF or lower. Perhaps most important though is they'll serve to further spice of the entire series. >>
What makes this series a winner is that most of the rolls will not be broken up for singles, as they initially cost more per coin than the bags. Many people are collecting ATB quarters by the roll - there were actually many more 2012-PD rolls sold by the Mint than 2012-S. Each roll collected takes 40 coins off the market. Each bag collected takes 100 coins off the market. A mere 15,000 roll collectors plus 2,000 bag collectors would be all it would take to remove more than half the mintage of each design from the market. And that doesn't even count speculators hoarding multiple rolls or bags. I expect that collector and speculator demand for rolls and bags will reduce the available number of 2012-S singles for collectors to less than 600,000 of each design, maybe a little more for El Yunque.
Many collectors are not even aware that the circulation-strike "S" quarters exist - I was at a local show recently and none of the dealers had any for sale, many did not even know about them.
The value of the 1996-W dime, with a similar 1.45 million mintage, is holding steady at about $13 per coin. The 2012-S ATB quarters are selling at less than $1 per coin. That's a huge disparity, especially considering that it's very likely that more people are collecting ATB quarters than Roosevelt dimes.
The 2012-S mintages are low enough, and the coins are (currently) available enough, that I think rolls (and possibly bags) might become suitable candidates for mass-market promotion.
With each design having barely over half the mintage of the 1950-D nickel, I consider any of these quarters to be a bargain at under $1 each.
<< <i>What makes this series a winner is that most of the rolls will not be broken up for singles, as they initially cost more per coin than the bags. Many people are collecting ATB quarters by the roll - there were actually many more 2012-PD rolls sold by the Mint than 2012-S. Each roll collected takes 40 coins off the market. Each bag collected takes 100 coins off the market. A mere 15,000 roll collectors plus 2,000 bag collectors would be all it would take to remove more than half the mintage of each design from the market. And that doesn't even count speculators hoarding multiple rolls or bags. I expect that collector and speculator demand for rolls and bags will reduce the available number of 2012-S singles for collectors to less than 600,000 of each design, maybe a little more for El Yunque. >>
You're probably right in the short term but in the longer term speculators tend to damage markets and suppress prices because each time the price gets to a certain level they sell and drive the price down.
<< <i>Many collectors are not even aware that the circulation-strike "S" quarters exist - I was at a local show recently and none of the dealers had any for sale, many did not even know about them. >>
This is a factor. People will find these in circulation and call the coin shop because they don't look like proofs. It will spur interest and the supply isn't great.
<< <i>The value of the 1996-W dime, with a similar 1.45 million mintage, is holding steady at about $13 per coin. The 2012-S ATB quarters are selling at less than $1 per coin. That's a huge disparity, especially considering that it's very likely that more people are collecting ATB quarters than Roosevelt dimes. >>
It was difficult to take a position in the w dimes but it's much easier and cheaper with the quarters. The dimes were widely distributed.
<< <i>The 2012-S mintages are low enough, and the coins are (currently) available enough, that I think rolls (and possibly bags) might become suitable candidates for mass-market promotion. >>
I tend to think of these as a long term bet but you have a great point. Since they can be acquired more easily in quantity they are more easily promoted.
<< <i>With each design having barely over half the mintage of the 1950-D nickel, I consider any of these quarters to be a bargain at under $1 each. >>
Care must be taken when referring to mintages and availability with regard to Modern coins. Wondercoin posted a blurb about "demand" and where it falls into this picture and my personal experience can back it up.
While low mintages "might" be a factor in current prices AND is definitely a "carney barker" in getting foilks attention toward a specific modern coin, it is in no way the determining factor for long term gains. In order to achieve long term gains over and above current market hype, a coin or series of coin MUST have demand.
I have several low pop modern coins which, according to the supply and demand rule regarding coins, SHOULD be very high priced items. However, there is simply no demand and as such my low pop or low mintage modern coins have no where near the value of a coin which is in "demand" yet has 1,000 times more population and hundreds of thousands more in mintages.
Sure, the 2012-S ATB coins are low mintage BUT I believe that any profit gain train which may have existed for the coins has already left the depot and is on its way to the next "latest and greatest" modern profit maker.
Modern coins DO have a specific market share within the coin collecting community but its an extremely small share compared to classic coins or coins that have intrinsic value due to precious metal content. Even the lowly IKE Dollar as a raw 40% Silver Coin has a higher "market" demand than a 1965 Washington in PCGS MS65 Plastic.
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
I pay up all the time to these hunters that slab moderns to make money. And do you know what.... they deserve every penny they charge. Just try doing it yourself one time and you will know what I mean. There are a number of modern projects I simply buy the coin for my set rather than try to slab one. It just makes more sense sometimes. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Does anyone know how many Cheerios Sacajaweas out of a potential 5,500 are accounted for ? So far, I only count 58 on the PCGS Pop. Report. I think a couple of those were crossed over from NGC holders.
I purchased the 2012 W UNC Gold American Eagle from the mint late last year and it's sold out.
A few are selling on eBay for nearly a thousand over what they sold for at the U.S. Mint just 5 months ago. Yet, gold has dropped a few hundred dollars. Coins are interesting. The mechanics, the economics, the history, the design, the collectiblity and even their composition.
Facts are facts ! The moderns don't need us to defend them. They have a following for a reason. I regret selling a few moderns thinking they'd be easy replacements. Guess what ? Most of them are available.., but a few are expensive now and the strong hands always hold until they get their price.
Now I understand CladKing because he is one I like to read. So it's easy to find data to back up and support my positions.
I didn't come back into coins except through moderns and they've been just as fun as classics. Even more expensive in many instances. Even more "seedy" in others. ( Wisconsin high/low , mules, MEL, etc ) than we have with classics. Such as the '33 Double Eagles.
Our moderns stir more drama and create more buzz for the WHOLE. This is a benefit for the whole. My opinion, of course.
Comments
As to the condition of clads, i agree that gems can be difficult. But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons.
I think we will see a huge increase in interest as series are retired. Just like in the past. Just my opinion.
<< <i>But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation.
<< <i> It makes no sense to blindly accept speculation by anyone as fact, >>
I certainly wasn't suggesting anything close to this, anymore than I think you are suggesting that I blindly accept unsupported doubts as fact just because someone says so. I can't speak for Cladking but I am guessing he has no such expectation either.
Kudos to all who have posted to this thread. The points of view and opinions expressed in this thread are varied, well thought out and well presented. The discussion has been very good, without posters getting agitated when views and opinions contrary to their are expressed. A great example of why these forums are a good place to hang out, participate, learn and have a little fun.
And I still think it would be very helpful to have high quality photographs of some of the highest quality MS clads and other modern circulating coinage posted (DHeaths' photo of his 1965 Cameo SMS quarter is a great example]. Pictures paint a thousand words, don't you know.
i am glad to hear reports on how the quarters are distributed in other parts of the nation.
Here in Massachusetts, state quarters have yet to acheive the 50% point although they are close.
Examining 521 quarters in the last month, I found 273 (52.4 %) eagle back, 234 (44.9 %) state, 4 territorials, 6 parks, 2 bi centenial and 1 Bermuda.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation. >>
True, but aside from this the cupronickel surface is much harder and wears much better than a silver one.
<< <i><<<< But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Nowadays, coins aren't used the way they were 50+ years ago. Back then, coins had a lot more purchasing power and they actually circulated as people used them to buy stuff. Today, people get coins as change from a purchase, dump them in a change jar at home and they sit there until there are enough to make a coinstar run. The coins go to the bank, then to merchants for making change and back to the change jar for another vacation. >>
True, but aside from this the cupronickel surface is much harder and wears much better than a silver one. >>
Well, they may hold up better, but don't you think the counting machines are just destroying the collectability of most clads? As I hinted at earlier, many of the nickels and quarters I saw in rolls a couple of years ago had been extremely gouged out. It made me wonder if it would even be possible to put together a nice worn set from change anymore, and is one reason I stopped searching rolls.
As for the book, we all know who needs to write it--the OP
A nice clad toner from my collection.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
If money is a concern for an ebook, there are likely some here on the thread that might be sponsors of the book. Some folks use a site such as Kickstarter to raise funds. Anyway for ebooks, a short version PDF probably could be put together in a month or two, a summary version in a week. If a more serious work is desired, obviously that would require more serious resources. If a serious book is desired, there might even be an editor or two lurking about, willing to do it for love of the hobby. The legacy thing can be a big deal for us that are seeing the grey hairs or balding heads.
I'll take the liberty of starting a separate thread for brainstorming on a book.
<< <i>For the life of me I can't understand some of these challenges to Cladking's estimates and data. It makes absolutely no sense to challenge his but give no data to support the challenge. Oy! Cladking is a trailblazer. No one has assessed these issues before. That he is willing to share his 40+ years of methodology, his research and his findings sets him apart from almost everyone in the hobby. Not only that but he has an engaging passion for collecting and pleasant writing style. >>
When you get right down to it counting anything is pretty much impossible. Some things coins
are easier since they are easily defined and hold still and some things like "serious collectors" are
far more difficult because the definitions and the collectors are in flux. It's probably more informative
to look at the changes in the demand more than my estimates of absolute numbers. This standard
isn't necessarily a lot easier because these collectors are primarily only visible by what they do and
they are rarely directly observed. I didn't actually bump into another modern collector until well into
the 1990's. But they certainly existed earlier because we were corresponding regarding sales, trades,
and the like. I advertised to buy nice '82 and '83 quarters for $40 in those days and while few coins
came in there were enquiries.
Numbers of collectors have simply been increasing no matter how you count or define them. I would
guess we didn't hit the first 1000 until around 1998 and we hit the second 1000 around '07. Now it's
at 3000. This isn't including the very casual collectors, of course. These are the people who are active-
ly upgrading their sets, seeking varieties, or paying premiums for raw coins as well as those seeking
graded coins. Most buyers of graded coins are not in this group because I'm not referring to the pop-
tops and registry sets. Most of the graded coins in the area I'm talking about are the "mistakes" that
were expected to grade higher. Most of the collections are worth perhaps $500 to $1000 and are hard
to sell in today's markets because most of the coins are "out of the money". These are pretty serious
collectors since they've already done significant work and learned quite a bit to get where they're at.
Moderns tend to attract those who have less resources and those who want to spend less money as
well as younger people so these collection represent significant outlays for some.
Many of the coins they're buying are raw or selling at deep discounts (as mistakes). But these are active
buyers and when the raw coins dry up they will have to seek coins elsewhere. When the raw coins dry
up there will be fewer submissions and fewer "mistakes" creating a great deal of pressure on supplies
which will almost certainly be made much worse buy an expanding collector base. There simply aren't
massive suppies of this sort of material because these coins have never been easy to find and there
have never been many people looking. Yes, the coins will "come out of the woodwork" with higher
prices but there aren't many coins in the woodwork.
I think what we'll see in the future is a much lower spread in prices between MS-64 and MS-67 and
a much higher spread between MS-63 and MS-64. Of course this will vary by date dependent on avail-
ability.
<< <i> My belief is that buffalo nickels became more desired after the mint changed designs to jeffersons and buffaloes started disappearing from circulation. As they become less prevalent in pocket change more people start to believe they are scarce and start looking for them and saving them. I think the same thing happened with wheaties. When the mint changes the dime design it will happen again. As for quarters, check your pocket change. I find that the eagle back washingtons now make up less than 50% of circulating quarters. That doesnt make them scarce or valuable. That simply leads me to believe that they will someday become more attractive to the most people as they start to become unusual in circulation. When that happens there will be a domino effect. >>
Certainly obsolescence would be beneficial to the clad quarters and a book or two on
the subject could spur demand but these things will come in time. One could say that
the eagle reverse design is already obsolete since it's not likely to reappear in the future.
There are even books though none specific to clads or clad quarters.
<< <i> But as to circulating clads, i think they hold up very well. You never see clads worn like barbers or like 1930's washingtons. >>
Yes, they hold up extremely well. Even the older clads that circulated at a much higher
velocity are still in good shape. Of course half of them are lost now but the vast majority
of the survivors are in VG or better condition. About 35% are culls now and this has been
increasingly rapidly for a decade now. Cu/ ni wears very slowly.
In this area states/ park coins make up about 55% of circulating quarters. The number
has been creeping higher and will spurt much higher as soon as the economy improves
and mintages increase and coins come out of storage. It should hit 60% by the end of the
decade everywhere and could hit 65%+ if the FED retires some of the heavily worn coins
and culls.
<< <i>
Still beautiful.
It's a new picture isn't it?
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Counting machines, parking meters and casinos have caused damage to many clads, but I am not ready to call it "most".
I have noticed that pure nickel Canadian 5 cent pieces seem to have rather deep long straight line scratches on them. Pure nickel is even harder than cupronickel, so something is really digging into them..
I knew it would happen.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
I own a store, and we go through 5-6 quarter rolls/week, but I seldom find any of the US Possession/State landmark issues. However, when I have traveled to Chicago, they seem very common - did the Denver mint produce a lot more, or is it just demand & distribution?
BTW - I hope that this thread lives a long life - there is a lot of good information on a wide variety of topics included in the posts. This should be a must read for any newbie that signs in here. It has strayed quite a bit from CK's original post, but IMO much for the better.
every treasure on Earth
to be young at heart?
And as rich as you are,
it's much better by far,
to be young at heart!
<< <i>On the subject of circulating quarters... it was posited that perhaps 55% in circulation are statehood/parks quarters. Here in central IL I'd say more like 70-80% statehood quarters, maybe more...and virtually no parks quarters. I can't recall the last time I got one in change. I would think that is because the series is still new enough that they are still largely being hoarded, much like it was during the first couple years of the statehood series. >>
Most of the post-'10 quarters I see are well mixed in with actively circulating coins. I can
catch them before they show any wear but they appear one at a time rather rather than
a few which is usually how new coins get into change. Banks no longer provide brand new
rolls here. They say there isn't much demand and it was a hassle with the states coins. NW
Indiana is not exactly a booming economy but it's been chugging along recovering from the
great recession. I understand central IL is still very slow since only farm commodities have
improved (and the gains nominal due to inflationary impacts).
I can't account for the high numbers of states coins you're seeing unless there was excessive
hoarding and the coins are being released by individuals. Some areas can be pretty isolated
at times if the local FED (Springfield) isn't odering or shipping much coin. There have been sev-
eral times when local coins can become significantly different than "average". This can be seen
in South Florida and Puerto Rico and even the Philly FED can go for significant periods without
ordering or importing coins since they tend to have excesses. In the old days quarters would
get "mixed in" in only eight years but people don't carry as much change and its velocity has
slowed so it takes closer to ten years.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Cladking, a question on a current clad issue. Could you comment on the 2012s atb quarters which had foreshortened mintages of ~1.4 million each for all 5? Chances to obtain from circulation? Predictions regarding rarity? Does this issue pose the possibility of a being a unique key for the clad coins? >>
I think they're probably a sleeper that will do well in the long term.
A lot of theseare going to hit circulation because they will be bought to just obtain
a couple nice specimens for a collection and the rest spent. Few of the circulated
pieces will be found until they are XF or lower. Perhaps most important though is
they'll serve to further spice of the entire series.
<< <i>I really believe every point made in the thread, and wish collectors of this material the best.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest" >>
Almost all collectors prefer scarcity to most other considerations or at least we
rarely want to pay much more even the greatest coin unless it's scarce. This is
the "box of 20" concept; no one is going to include a low grade buffalo in a box
of twenty.
Common moderns are not going to ever be very valuable but I believe those that
are scarce and those that are scarce in nice condition will increase substantially
from current prices which are based on almost no demand at all. This willl show
up first in the "common" dates which are elusive in nice attractive condition because
they don't exist in mint sets or because nice examples are too scarce in mint sets
to meet current demand.
You aren't going to see anyone trading Gem '72-D quarters at $10 anytime soon
(if ever) but I believe you'll see dramatic price changes for Gem '72 quarters. Most
of these will not be getting slabbed right away but keep in mind that the raw mat-
erial for the higher grades isn't goiing to be around either. These can also experi-
ence price changes with even very little new demand since availability is much lower.
<< <i>they'll serve to further spice of the entire series. >>
Love that!
Thank you, as always.
With the definition of rare as to the coin and not condition. By this I mean that all moderns (omitting varieties and errors) can be and will always be available in GEM (65) for a song.
With that being said I do believe that there are the 4 group of collectors(like someone already mentioned: Hole fillers, best they can buy, Gem, and top pop. There will always be enough moderns to fill the demand for the first 3 groups, but the top pop group is really hard to predict. The number of collectors that would spend thousands for a MS68 when a MS67 can be had for 20 bucks is really small. And I don't see that number increasing by very much in the future. And like I stated above there are plenty of cheap coins of all the moderns to fill whatever demand comes in the future.
I don't collect moderns, but do have all the Roosevelt dimes because I collect ALL dimes and the clad dimes are dimes. In hind site I wish I would have had BJ create me a set of ALL Silver Dimes stopping at 1964, but that ship has sailed. Even at that I have bought all the clads for probably 25 bucks or less....more less than not. The two coins that cost more are the 96-W in 68, which was close to $100 and the 82 NO P which was around $200. And without looking all are 66 or better except the 82 NO P which is 64. I could upgrade the 82 for a couple of hundred, but always find better ways to spend the money. I hardly ever if ever upgraded a clad Roosie.
<< <i>I really believe every point made in the thread, and wish collectors of this material the best.
Still, it is very very hard for me to get excited (or pay much) for a coin of which tens, hundreds, thousands of millions were minted, of which BU rolls still exist, but "this here example is one of the finest" >>
FWIW - I have made a substantially higher amount slabbing/selling 'modern' US & Canadian coins than I have with coins that are thousands times more rare. It harks back to cladking's original point that DEMAND is key. I was fortunate to get some high (top-pop) state quarters graded by pcgs shortly after the program began, and due to the registry set competition, the demand resulted in higher prices than I ever imagined I could get. Then I started submitting some very nice Canadian proof-like sets to pcgs at just about the time that they expanded the registries to include foreign sets. Once again, I was able to turn a very tidy profit after ebay, shipping, grading & all other costs were deducted - but also, the timing of the DEMAND was right, so I was able to leverage that. As Mitch mentions, it took an awful lot of time looking at an awful lot of coins, but the bottom line was well worth it.
Then there is the collection of over 3 dozen very rare 1869-1870 pattern coins (most struck in off-metals, rarity 5 to 7+) that I accumulated over a decade - searching out only the top graded or best looking examples that I could find & afford. Out of the total collection, close to 70% were top-population, and of those, probably 25% were the solo finest graded. They auctioned a while back, and I still haven't done the math, because I know that I might have barely broke even. But I thoroughly enjoyed the hunt for the coins, and they were all beautiful to look at, so I am not gonna complain about not making a profit - I was the owner of pieces of history that had been in Ford, Simpson, Bass, Lemus, Farouk & other prominent collections, and I still have 4 of my favorites to enjoy. This time, DEMAND worked against me, because most collectors don't even attempt to put together complete sets of patterns, unlike Roosies, Mercs, Seated Libs and yes, even statehood quarters.
That's why I consider this such an important thread - all the facets & opinions are proven to be valid - collect what you like, collect with an eye toward future gain, or combine the two - just make sure that you are having fun doing it. You will certainly gain a lot in both knowledge & friends - we have a great community that is always willing to help other collectors. In the past 15-20 years that I have been truly active in numismatics, I have met some wonderful people, and look forward to seeing them again to talk about our latest endeavors.
To the original point, I have found that DEMAND (not rarity or beauty) definitely drives value - the more folks that want an item, the higher the price will be - that is the basic economics of supply & demand. I think that CK's premise is right on, and it is prudent (as well as inexpensive) to pay attention to mintages & surviving examples of coins that will some day be in higher demand - low risk, potentially high reward.
every treasure on Earth
to be young at heart?
And as rich as you are,
it's much better by far,
to be young at heart!
But I actually believe there's a code of silence among modern day coin collectors, a hidden agenda collectors carry with them and keep it to themselves, mainly their treasures that may include high quality coins. They don't want to give out too much information about what they collect in fear of being robbed or that they will only increase the competition for those coins. There is a very large group of collectors who are very private and reclusive in what they collect. They don't want anyone to know, not even their family members. But there are collectors who collect coins like golden nuggets. They know their stuff and they are doing quite well.
Through my years when I would come across a great collection, mainly by chance, I would advise the collector that it would be wise not to show his coins yet. I believed such great coins would only discourage collectors from collecting coins. The rule of thumb was to always praise others about the coins in their collections, no matter how bad.
But the day has come in my life to educate others about these great coins in hopes of selling for a decent profit since none of us will live forever.
Yes, there are great coins in every series. They're out there to be had by every means of the hunt. They're not going to simply fall into anyone's lap....for nothing. And that is one fact everyone should know.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>I am thinking that most collectors will be satisfied with the best coin they can find that doesn't involve a ten year search or an exponential price jump from one grade to the next. If that happens to be an MS62, that will be good enough. >>
This is possible but the simple fact is an MS-62 clad can look like junk and isn't necessarily
"common". I seriously doubt there are even 25,000 1982-P quarters that would grade MS-62
or higher.
Another of the reasons people collect moderns at all is that they can put together nice attractive
sets quite cheaply. Right now a Gem set can be had for a couple hundred dollars and a lot of work
but when the mint set backlog dries up it will not be achievable at low cost any longer.
I've long believed that most advanced collectors of moderns are going to prefer attractive well-made
coins that are relatively clean. By current grading standards this includes very few MS-63 coins, many
MS-64 coins and everything higher. This is where the supply of mint sets will dramatically affect the
supply of coins because the bulk of these come from mint sets. In many cases there are no rolls anyway.
<< <i>If that price jump happens, my prediction would be that there would be a reassessment of what grade level is acceptable to the collector, not that most collectors would decide to spend considerably more money than they had originally intended. >>
This, too, is true. I'd guess that more people would be priced out of the market entirely than that they'd
settle for lower grades. In fact, I'd bet more collectors would turn to nice attractive VF's and XF's from
circulation rather than collect low grade Uncs because low grade Unc clad is so unattractive.
Keep in mind, too, that there would be other factors in play if prices did jump. For one many of these
collectors would have substantial paper profits in their collections so would feel they're "playing with
other peoples' money". Also there's the simple fact that many of these coins aren't really available at
current market prices now. A collector might be well willing to spend $20 for the right coin but it lists
at $2 so he holds back for fear of overpaying. Higher prices would tend to stabilize and normalize the
market.
It's the same phenomenon as trying to stock up in Chinese 1956 5f. They list at $2 but I've found a to-
tal of "1" in about 40 years of looking. If I see one at $50 I might not buy it but if the market price jumps
to $40 I might jump on it.
The problem with the moderns is lack of demand but all over the world there is demand starting. It will
come to the USA as well.
<< <i>I would guess that in the early 1950's no one expected the coins of the day to become as collectible as they are now. If the mint abandons the cent or changes the composition of the nickel due to the cost of nickel, there may be a new batch of collectors out there. Many present collectors got started shortly after silver was eliminated from our coins. I dont know what the future holds, but i think cladking makes a very good point. >>
Yes.
Back in the '50's we were all searching pocket change for rare dates. There weren't any
because decades of searching the coins eradicated the scarce dates. But there were lots
of varieties that we could have been searching for and finding yet no one was. These are
valuable today. It's the same with the Gems of the time. If we had searched Gems we'd
have done well also.
The more things change the more they remain the same.
<< <i> I just don't find most nickel coins to be attractive as opposed to silver. I look at the Statue of Liberty half dollar and think, "Wow that would look great in silver, but it's not." Buying bullion just does not turn me on. For the money that I've spent on collector coins I could have huge safe full of gold and silver bullion by now, and I'd be bored as hell with it.
>>
This might be part of the reason I find most clads to be unattractive; it's not only
that they tend to be poorly made and scratched up but they're not silver. Silver just
has an attractive "feel" and "look" to it that clad can't match.
There's probably more to it though since silver almost always look good even with
poor surfaces made by worn dies.
<< <i>I have no problem with people collecting moderns and even though they aren't very popular is really just a time thing. Trades didn't really intrest collectors until not to long ago and they still aren't popular.
My only issue is people telling me how rare they are when every B&M I have ever been in has rolls and rolls of every date and calling MS67 rarities when there are hundreds of graded ms66s an thousads of MS65s is missing a fundamental rule of supply and demand. >>
There are very few clads that are truly scarce in Gem other than varieties and special issues.
Even the highly vaunted '69-P will probably show up to the tune of a couple thousand in Gem.
The '82 and '83 are tougher as well as few Ikes.
This isn't really about supply so much as demand. There are plenty of these if there's no mass
market. If there are only a few specialized collectors than the market is just about getting the
coins to those who demand them. But, the demand is growing and supply is tiny compared to
people believe it to be. The demand can not support a mass market and literally millions of po-
tential collectors exist while thousands are actively collecting.
At some point the supply and demand curves will cross and it will probably be if and when the
economy improves.
<< <i>
I'm one of the last of the dinosaurs, I lived through the change in coins from silver to clad. I actually experienced finding coins of value as a kid from change. None of my kids has experienced that, none of them collect coins. When I grew up, change was important and cool and fun and you could really buy stuff with it. My 19 year old literally throws away any pennies he gets. >>
I started in 1957 and the only true "treasure" I ever found was a '37-D buffalo in XF. It would
be worth about a dollar now. I'm not complaining since I found a '50-D nickel in XF that I sold
for $25 in 1964 which was about a king's ransom in those days. I've found several coins since
1964 that had a little value (not to mention lots of Gems).
...
<< <i>I don't think there is any significant future in any post 1964 circulating coinage, at least from a "making money because there will be a lot of future demand and limited supply someday" perspective. >>
Again, it's not future demand that I'm talking about, it's current demand. The only reason
current demand hasn't swamped the supply is because the great recession caused a massive
influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns.
<< <i>I sincerely doubt that in 20 years there will be half as many people collecting coins as now. Nor will that population be as wealthy as the current 55-plus crowd. >>
It's tough to say but I believe the states quarter program, expanding middle class (abroad),
and the increased interest from bullion buyers, and growing population, will actually mean a
lot more collectors in the future.
I distinctly remember I was holding the coin and focusing on the edge and seeing copper and nickel in it that used to be silver and thinking to myself 'wtf' ??
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>the great recession caused a massive influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns. >>
There are so many coins for sale in the individual mint set cellophane squares on ebay, that I see your point about these. Since the figures you gave in 2005, how much do you believe the loss has been (in %) in available modern mint sets?
<< <i>
<< <i>the great recession caused a massive influx of mint sets which is the raw material of moderns. >>
There are so many coins for sale in the individual mint set cellophane squares on ebay, that I see your point about these. Since the figures you gave in 2005, how much do you believe the loss has been (in %) in available modern mint sets? >>
This is the 2005 estimate.
I would think the percentage loss since then is quite substantial. I haven't paid
enough attention to the markets to have a really good feel for it but many of these
sets have suffered very high attrition because of melting silver and low prices. Dealers
aren't going to ship sets like the '79 and '80 so will cut them up. A lot of these dates are
just worth more dead than alive. However the market for singles is weak as well which
mitigates the attrition. There just isn't enough money in the singles to bother. Many of
the later sets have had staggering attrition because they are available still and cheap.
I doubt a lot of the earlier better dates have been affected as much because they're al-
ready so reduced in number the prices have held up a little better but the '68 and '69
got down to melt value so even these are still suffering quite a bit.
It's interesting how strong the price has been on the '70 recently. Perhaps I overestimated
the number of survivors in '05.
The key is "finding" and taking advantage before they "go through the roof". If the idea is to flip, then flip. It all balances out.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
There is ample evidence at hand that there is a shift in once ignored series. 1965-1970 kennedy half dollars in high grades with nice surfaces and color are going strong. attractive 1950s toners in D and S mints in 66 and higher are selling for good money.
clad quarters from certain segments of the 1965-1998 period are starting to wake up. What's holding moderns back, I think, is that the market makers are over-relying on their idea of the value of the coin based on the pop report and setting prices too high. if let alone, prices would organically go where they should be.
Mitch, at what price do you think those rosies sell if you start an auction with no reserve?
Charles Morgan
<< <i>I just spent the weekend with a bunch of guys with the best clad ikes on the planet. they know their series like the back of their hand and know what top pop coins are strong and which ones are weak. they buy strong coins. they pay over price guide for coins they really want. they are now and will always be that small elite class of collectors in this series and I honestly believe that when they sell their sets that it will be a big deal for people who want to buy into this series at an elite level.
There is ample evidence at hand that there is a shift in once ignored series. 1965-1970 kennedy half dollars in high grades with nice surfaces and color are going strong. attractive 1950s toners in D and S mints in 66 and higher are selling for good money.
clad quarters from certain segments of the 1965-1998 period are starting to wake up. What's holding moderns back, I think, is that the market makers are over-relying on their idea of the value of the coin based on the pop report and setting prices too high. if let alone, prices would organically go where they should be.
Mitch, at what price do you think those rosies sell if you start an auction with no reserve?
>>
I wonder if emerging markets weren't actually a lot simpler in the old days and much
of what has delayed moderns is the complexity. There was an emerging market back
in the days before grading services for high grade circulating clad, cents, and FS nickels
but it seemed to actually slow down when coins began being cerified. Perhaps collectors
to took a "wait and see" attitude but then there were no moderns being submitted so the
markets simply froze at previous levels but traded in raw coins.
The nature of the markets has changed with the advent of the services. To a real degree
now the high end of the market is a product of the services. Those who make the pop tops
expend great effort and cost and price the coins partly on that rather than strictly supply and
demand. It's still difficult to gauge supply and demand due to thinness of the market but also
the very nature of the high end coins; no two pop tops are really identical and each individual
who desires the coins has a highly variable price he's willing to pay based on the specific at-
tributes of the coin and how much he values it over his current example. This might persist
somewhat even as the market begins to mature.
But this lack of price guidance is across the board. A really nice circulated example of a clad
coin can be quite "scarce". Not scarce in the sense that only 10 examples exist but scarce in
the sense that only a couple hundred exist but they're mixed in with 55 billion circulating quar-
ters. Finding a needle in a haystack is child's play compared to finding a nice attractive '69 25c
in XF. You can't even send off to Littleton for it because no one saved the coins and now all
of them except a few outliers are worn down yet the price guides don't even list the coin as be-
ing collectible. Most of the guides list tough coins like a gemmy '82-P quarter at less than whol-
sale for the BU roll price yet you'd need about 4 rolls to find one gemmy coin!! This is the grade
range where the price guides are of no real help because coins aren't sold in this range except
by chance. Dealers often keep a 2 x 2's with a few of each date clads since they get them cheap
from sets and collections and it's not at all unusual that there are MS-65 and MS-66 clads in them.
Many collectors seek these for a cheap source of upgrades. They search sets for this grade and
as well as eBay. There's no sense of urgency since the sets have always been widely available
and right now the market is swamped with them.
It's this massive inefficiency in the markets that have held them back so long. The coins can be rare
but they are priced so low that there's no chance potential buyers can find them except through pure
blind luck. Then when they are identified by the market as being valuable as the result of weak de-
mand, sellers have no solid benchmark for setting prices. I seriously doubt that registry set collect-
ing is ever going to become a mass market even in moderns. This isn't impossible by a long sight
but it's tough to imagine large numbers of collectors seeking the finest 1970 dime he can find. It's
much easier to see a continuation of the growing demand for nice chBU and gemmy clads. It's easy
to imagine people sending in that MS-65 '70 dime intentionally rather than as a mistake because there's
enough demand to warrant slabbing. Instead of the best few hundred of each clad getting slabbed
it's simple logic that as demand continues to grow it will require the top few thousand of each to be
slabbed. When the top few thousand of some of these are all safely tucked away in a slab some of
those slabs are going to say MS-60 on them and contain unattractive coins. There simply is not an
endless supply of attractive clads.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Cladking, a question on a current clad issue. Could you comment on the 2012s atb quarters which had foreshortened mintages of ~1.4 million each for all 5? Chances to obtain from circulation? Predictions regarding rarity? Does this issue pose the possibility of a being a unique key for the clad coins? >>
I think they're probably a sleeper that will do well in the long term.
A lot of theseare going to hit circulation because they will be bought to just obtain
a couple nice specimens for a collection and the rest spent. Few of the circulated
pieces will be found until they are XF or lower. Perhaps most important though is
they'll serve to further spice of the entire series. >>
What makes this series a winner is that most of the rolls will not be broken up for singles, as they initially cost more per coin than the bags. Many people are collecting ATB quarters by the roll - there were actually many more 2012-PD rolls sold by the Mint than 2012-S. Each roll collected takes 40 coins off the market. Each bag collected takes 100 coins off the market. A mere 15,000 roll collectors plus 2,000 bag collectors would be all it would take to remove more than half the mintage of each design from the market. And that doesn't even count speculators hoarding multiple rolls or bags. I expect that collector and speculator demand for rolls and bags will reduce the available number of 2012-S singles for collectors to less than 600,000 of each design, maybe a little more for El Yunque.
Many collectors are not even aware that the circulation-strike "S" quarters exist - I was at a local show recently and none of the dealers had any for sale, many did not even know about them.
The value of the 1996-W dime, with a similar 1.45 million mintage, is holding steady at about $13 per coin. The 2012-S ATB quarters are selling at less than $1 per coin. That's a huge disparity, especially considering that it's very likely that more people are collecting ATB quarters than Roosevelt dimes.
The 2012-S mintages are low enough, and the coins are (currently) available enough, that I think rolls (and possibly bags) might become suitable candidates for mass-market promotion.
With each design having barely over half the mintage of the 1950-D nickel, I consider any of these quarters to be a bargain at under $1 each.
<< <i>What makes this series a winner is that most of the rolls will not be broken up for singles, as they initially cost more per coin than the bags. Many people are collecting ATB quarters by the roll - there were actually many more 2012-PD rolls sold by the Mint than 2012-S. Each roll collected takes 40 coins off the market. Each bag collected takes 100 coins off the market. A mere 15,000 roll collectors plus 2,000 bag collectors would be all it would take to remove more than half the mintage of each design from the market. And that doesn't even count speculators hoarding multiple rolls or bags. I expect that collector and speculator demand for rolls and bags will reduce the available number of 2012-S singles for collectors to less than 600,000 of each design, maybe a little more for El Yunque. >>
You're probably right in the short term but in the longer term speculators tend
to damage markets and suppress prices because each time the price gets to a
certain level they sell and drive the price down.
<< <i>Many collectors are not even aware that the circulation-strike "S" quarters exist - I was at a local show recently and none of the dealers had any for sale, many did not even know about them. >>
This is a factor. People will find these in circulation and call the coin shop because
they don't look like proofs. It will spur interest and the supply isn't great.
<< <i>The value of the 1996-W dime, with a similar 1.45 million mintage, is holding steady at about $13 per coin. The 2012-S ATB quarters are selling at less than $1 per coin. That's a huge disparity, especially considering that it's very likely that more people are collecting ATB quarters than Roosevelt dimes. >>
It was difficult to take a position in the w dimes but it's much easier and cheaper
with the quarters. The dimes were widely distributed.
<< <i>The 2012-S mintages are low enough, and the coins are (currently) available enough, that I think rolls (and possibly bags) might become suitable candidates for mass-market promotion. >>
I tend to think of these as a long term bet but you have a great point. Since they can
be acquired more easily in quantity they are more easily promoted.
<< <i>With each design having barely over half the mintage of the 1950-D nickel, I consider any of these quarters to be a bargain at under $1 each. >>
I agree.
Wondercoin posted a blurb about "demand" and where it falls into this picture and my personal experience can back it up.
While low mintages "might" be a factor in current prices AND is definitely a "carney barker" in getting foilks attention toward a specific modern coin, it is in no way the determining factor for long term gains. In order to achieve long term gains over and above current market hype, a coin or series of coin MUST have demand.
I have several low pop modern coins which, according to the supply and demand rule regarding coins, SHOULD be very high priced items. However, there is simply no demand and as such my low pop or low mintage modern coins have no where near the value of a coin which is in "demand" yet has 1,000 times more population and hundreds of thousands more in mintages.
Sure, the 2012-S ATB coins are low mintage BUT I believe that any profit gain train which may have existed for the coins has already left the depot and is on its way to the next "latest and greatest" modern profit maker.
Modern coins DO have a specific market share within the coin collecting community but its an extremely small share compared to classic coins or coins that have intrinsic value due to precious metal content. Even the lowly IKE Dollar as a raw 40% Silver Coin has a higher "market" demand than a 1965 Washington in PCGS MS65 Plastic.
The name is LEE!
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
If you are in it to make money...then going thru thousands of moderns looking for top pop coins to resell is the way to go. Just ask Wondercoin.
I am not one of those. I collect classic coins because I like the design's and history of those old and hard to find dates and mintmarks.
It's like the time someone, when finding out that I was into woodworking, ask me why don't you make things and sell them?
My reply was.......then it wouldn't be fun anymore......it would be a job!
<< <i>I guess it all depends on what type of collector you are and why you collect certain coins or series of coins.
If you are in it to make money...then going thru thousands of moderns looking for top pop coins to resell is the way to go. Just ask Wondercoin.
I am not one of those. I collect classic coins because I like the design's and history of those old and hard to find dates and mintmarks.
It's like the time someone, when finding out that I was into woodworking, ask me why don't you make things and sell them?
My reply was.......then it wouldn't be fun anymore......it would be a job!
Party popper ! Get outta here !
Some of us just buy at the mint and enjoy them.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Does anyone know how many Cheerios Sacajaweas out of a potential 5,500 are accounted for ?
So far, I only count 58 on the PCGS Pop. Report. I think a couple of those were crossed over from NGC holders.
I purchased the 2012 W UNC Gold American Eagle from the mint late last year and it's sold out.
A few are selling on eBay for nearly a thousand over what they sold for at the U.S. Mint just 5 months ago. Yet, gold has dropped a few hundred dollars.
Coins are interesting. The mechanics, the economics, the history, the design, the collectiblity and even their composition.
Facts are facts ! The moderns don't need us to defend them. They have a following for a reason.
I regret selling a few moderns thinking they'd be easy replacements. Guess what ? Most of them are available.., but a few are expensive now and the strong hands always hold until they get their price.
Now I understand CladKing because he is one I like to read. So it's easy to find data to back up and support my positions.
LINK TO EBAY for 2012 W UNC Gold American Eagle
I didn't come back into coins except through moderns and they've been just as fun as classics. Even more expensive in many instances.
Even more "seedy" in others. ( Wisconsin high/low , mules, MEL, etc ) than we have with classics. Such as the '33 Double Eagles.
Our moderns stir more drama and create more buzz for the WHOLE. This is a benefit for the whole. My opinion, of course.
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