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***AUGUST 2012 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***

ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a continuation of the monthly trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures.

IMO, gold is setting and getting ready for a huge move to the upside, potentially after the FOMC meeting starting off the month. I have seen speculation on both sides about whether they are ready to launch more QE or whether they will wait. To me, it looks like gold wants to run sooner than later but the real indicator is a decisive break of the $1630-40 level.

I am only looking for a ~$400 move to $2000-2100 but more optimistic estimates of $3000 are probably not unreasonable. Especially if a global QE unleashes simultaneously.
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Comments

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice turnabout in M0 after the decline from Feb-early July. Gold and silver have tracked well with M0 over the past few years.

    M0 (for a close up view, select 1 yr, and then "redraw graph")

    Incredible 53-1 NUGT to DUST volume ratio on this morning's slide. Nugt filled its gap at around 8.15, but of concern is that GDX, GDXJ, and GLD didn't. This looks to be total, towel throwing time in Nugt. Don't see the stock market or commods in general getting hit as hard as the PMs. The volume in Nugt in less than one hour was 2X greater than any daily volume seen during the May lows. Amazing. Why even wait for the FOMC when you can get this done well in advance? What's more interesting is that the volume ratio built up steadily from open until around 11 pm (20-1 to 53-1). It's still holding right around 49-1. The largest 1 day ratio over the past 2 yrs was around 22-1. Only 2 choices from here. Miners are headed to much deeper lows or this was one of the best pocket-picking excursions of all times. Nugt was pushed down 14%, then has since rebounded 14%....a 28% swing. But that pales to REE which dropped 30% and then got it all back.

    Still more room for another down leg in gold to coincide with the FOMC minutes. GLD fell back and back tested the 20 and 50 dma's dma this morning. But the gap in the upper 153's is close by. Maybe saving that for Ben or Thursday's full moon. These large bottom shadows in the candles for GDX, GLD, SLV, etc. suggests there was interest in buying at these morning lows. The GDX/SPY volume ratio was off the charts today as well. 2-1/2X larger right now on the daily than anything seen in the last 3 yrs. This is either incredible capitulation or a crash warning. So far, it seems a lot more likely to be capitulation. There were also huge volume ratio spikes in GLD/OIL and GLD/UDN. Gold's 8 hr lower BB now at $1580 which has often provided strong support.

    GSR's Stoch-Rsi coming up for its 2nd move above the 0.8 line and a retag of the upper daily BB. Usually, Stoch-Rsi only makes 2 or 3 peaks before treating again. With CCI and Macd in slow downtrends (neg diverg), I'd give the advantage to a downtrend continuing. Macd peaked much higher last October with a GSR of 56. But it still has a bullish alignment on its various ema's and dma's. GSR

    Another interesting stat is the Nugt's volume today is 1.5X that of GDX today. Before today it's never even been more than 50% of the GDX volume. While GDX technically filled the daily gap from the 24th (again), there's still a 60c gap on the hourly. When gold and miners leave the station for good, they will probably leave gaps behind that will last for months just as they did 1-3 years ago. We just don't know when that final lower gap is the goodbye kiss. We've been disappointed a lot of times in 2012 as time and time again, these lower gaps got filled.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Algorithmic trading to blame for extreme volume? I'm not sure what to believe.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold miner etf's hammered - no surprise here

    In looking at the highest volume trades in the industrials today, Nugt came in at 2nd place so far only behind Alcoa. In looking at the top 20 volume
    players today most seem to be key players in mining, energy, rare earths, etc. I think they were trying to send a message. So it's no surprise to me
    that Nugt was totally thrashed along with GDX. GDXJ and SIL had smaller than normal daily volumes. This volume is not consistent throughout the
    gold and silver miners. Seems to me they went for where the bang for the buck was maximized. Senior gold miners and Rare Earths seemed to have seen the biggest
    whacks and volume surges. Most of the damage to the smaller stocks like GDXJ and SIL occurred in the first 5 minutes and then relented. But nothing explains what
    occurred with Nugt today where 16 MILL shares traded in 30 minutes (3X highest daily volume of the past 3 weeks). That was an intergalactic hit. Why an I not suprised
    that GDX/NUGT are at the center of the whole thing? image I'm not complaining as I was looking to buy some Nugt week on the "Fmoc" pullback. Placed 2 orders
    10-15 min after the open. Just didn't expect a pull back close to the May lows occurring with only a $10-$15 drop in gold. I can't imagine that any trader with a nugt sell
    stop today didn't get it hit. If this was just a computer glitch why did the Nugt drop go on for 15 minutes?
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, obviously a direct attack on gold. Why else would these stock have been impacted as well?



    The exchange cancelled trades in stocks including China Cord Blood Corp, which rose as much as 151 per cent on huge volume, Quicksilver Resources, Reaves Utility Income Fund, Wizzard Software, E-House (China) Holdings and American Reprographics.

    There was unusual trading in the shares of Dole Food, Radio Shack, CoreLogic, and, on European bourses, Unilever, Alcatel-Lucent and Anheuser-Busch.


    Oh, maybe I know. To divert attention from the obvious. Yeah, thats it. Make the sheeple think this was a "computer glitch" by hitting the shares are their favorite beer. That will fool them. Hehehehe--we be evil banksters.

    LOL

    Sorry, couldnt resist.

    image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I checked some of those other stocks such as CO, WZE, UN, KWK, etc. and I don't see anything quite like the volume increase that Nugt saw. And some or most of them went sharply up, not just down as Nugt and the other goldies did. Even REE had a massive volume day but nothing it hasn't seen several times this year. In looking through the all the US exchange listed stocks that did >20 MILL shares today only Nokia comes out with anything quite like Nugt. But Nokia went up, then pulled back. It also saw higher volume than today's back during the April crash. Nugt saw 3X the volume today of anything in its entire history. It seems to be alone among the largest volume players today. It put GDX and GDXJ to shame as well. GDX never came close to reaching it's July 24th gap while Nugt took its out quite easily. There was definitely more negative oomph applied to Nugt today than can be accounted for by this flash crash. GDX traded 16% of its market cap today....Nugt 85%. GDX has seen higher volume days several times this year vs. today's. Nugt tripled it's former all time high. Odd behavior for a stock that is based on GDX's movements. 66% of market cap traded in about 30 min? Just sayin'.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hear ya roadrunner. But I see absolutely no need to manipulate a highly leverage etf. Perhaps the leverage is the reason for the huge volume.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I hear ya roadrunner. But I see absolutely no need to manipulate a highly leverage etf. Perhaps the leverage is the reason for the huge volume. >>



    Such huge Nugt volume leverage has never been there before on previous days where GDX reached 30 MILL shares. Why was today 400% different with similar conditions?
    The other leveraged PM etfs, AGQ,USLV,UGLD,DUST,ZSL saw no such volume leverage (ie no more than about half or less of previous volume spikes). Even Dust has seen
    higher volumes than today's on 10 occasions this year. Nugt sticks out like a sore thumb. I've watched the Nugt/Dust volume ratio closely over the past year and it usually
    tracks in the 3X to 12X range. Excursions in the 15X to 22X are rare, even in early morning trading. 22X was the previous daily high. It opened around that value and just
    kept climbing, sitting at 50 for quite some time. It slowly wound down to close at a volume ratio of 35. Things were clearly out of whack for something that I've never seen
    higher than 22X even in the first 30-90 min of trading. An 18X to 22X ratio has indicated a massive move one way or the other. Once I went to 30 I was dumbfounded. Then
    came 40....then 50. It was nuts. I can sort of explain all the other moves today....just not this one. And fwiw, what fund would be playing with Nugt to this extreme? I don't
    think a fat finger, or even a Knight induced mistake could have accounted for this. 10 MILL in sell stops sitting 10-14% lower than yesterday's close could be a partial reason.
    They got every one of those.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There's a couple of possibilities after today. The fed didn't give us the news that was needed to send gold running. Thursday the ECB ends its meeting so I suppose an announcement from the ECB could trigger a move as well. And if that doesn't do it, Friday's unemployment report may do the trick.

    Anyway, gold came back down and touched the top of the triangle consolidation from above. This is quite a common thing to happen upon a breakout of a triangle consolidation. In fact, I was going to point this out a few days ago that I was waiting for such a move to load up. So I think the pattern is setting up nicely but it is vulnerable here. Who knows, maybe we're in for another month or two of sideways action.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Roadrunner, thats exactly the point. Why would they play with only 1 etf and not all, or several? Even with the huge volume the dollar amount is very small. There was obviously a software programming problem that sent multiple orders for some securities. Some were buys and some were sells. NUGT just happened to be one of those. Maybe there was an order for 100,000 shares that was send 1000 times. This is what I believe happened. A single order kept repeating in the system. Thats why the volume.

    There was no conspiracy to drive NUGT lower.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>There's a couple of possibilities after today. The fed didn't give us the news that was needed to send gold running. Thursday the ECB ends its meeting so I suppose an announcement from the ECB could trigger a move as well. And if that doesn't do it, Friday's unemployment report may do the trick.

    Anyway, gold came back down and touched the top of the triangle consolidation from above. This is quite a common thing to happen upon a breakout of a triangle consolidation. In fact, I was going to point this out a few days ago that I was waiting for such a move to load up. So I think the pattern is setting up nicely but it is vulnerable here. Who knows, maybe we're in for another month or two of sideways action. >>




    I kinda want to believe this is the case PC, but im not so sure. The breakout was weak and depending on how the trendlines are drawn it could be falling back into the wedge. Silver may be a leader here, watch it.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well the ECB disappointed and so now is the gold pattern disappointing. Today's close doesn't look good but I'm more interested in the weekly close being above about 1600 and being above the triangle. I'm starting to lean toward false breakout like the one we saw a few months ago.

    Since my thinking is that we're at a low of sorts I established a position today at about 1588, but I am ready to bail if there is any follow-on weakness. I am worried about getting taken out in a whipsaw reaction though, but such is the risk.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    FED trying to remain neutral, the man's job may be at stake.

    "Right now, Bernanke is playing the stock market like a fiddle. Strongly hinting at QE-3 to the media in order to jig the market upwards, - then disappointing market Bulls after big rallies, by holding pat and keeping his powder dry. Mr Bernanke aims to stay politically neutral ahead of the Nov 6th elections, and the last window of opportunity to launch QE-3 before Nov 6th has probably closed. If the Fed unleashed QE-3 before Nov 6th, and if the Republicans capture the White House, the Fed chief would pay a heavy political price in January. The “Audit the Fed” bill would become a reality and so would the dismantling of the Fed’s secretive interventionist schemes in the marketplace. Mr Ron Paul has set the wheel in motion, - only time will tell if American voters are ready to restore the slogan, “Free Markets for Free People." - Gary Dorsch, 7/31/12

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was pretty happy with today's action. It looks like I timed my buy really well - that is if gold continues to move higher from here. While we still don't have a definitive breakout I am encouraged that gold did not progress back into the triangle. This next big move we're looking at is on the weekly timeframe so instead of a quick rebound like we're used to such rebounds will probably take a few days as the move will be big, but slower moving in general... The last time we were ready for a big move like this saw a short term move from roughly 700 in Oct 2008 to over 1000 over 4 months. It took a breath and the move continued until the blowoff at $1923. So if that translates to the next move we could be looking at a move to $2000 through the end of the year with a pause before a run to well into the $3000's over a couple of years.

    McLellan's indicators expected a gold bottom which we got yesterday. The next thing due is a top around Aug 14.
    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That 2 month triangle can be shoe-horned a few diff ways. One way is using a log chart with this week's high of $1629 being the 4th reversal point. That means a 5th reversal point
    on the bottom of the triangle in the $1565-$1580 range is still within reason and doesn't break the structure. I see it is a symmetric triangle rather than a descending. GLD still has a
    small hourly gap left from the 24th (153.5) that equates to gold of around $1582. There is also a bit of a higher GLD gap left up around a gold equivalent of $1613. We could see both
    of those fillled in August. One good thing is that the next pressure week for gold is 1-1/2 weeks away when GLD and GDX options expire. But next week is clear other than a 3-10-30yr
    TBond auction week. Those usually aren't all that negative when they aren't combined with OE or FOMC weeks. But we should see some pressure reapplied by the 14th-17th. The last
    week of the month should provide fireworks with a combined OE week and set of TNote auctions. Volume in Nugt today was pitiful at 2.5 MILL shares....a far cry from the 21 MILL two
    days ago.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • meluaufeetmeluaufeet Posts: 764 ✭✭✭
    A double top in gold in euros could spark the next ralky in gold in dollars. Still a couple of weeks away... And would match seasonal patterns.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Buying GDXJ @ 20.06, lots of it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Buying GDXJ @ 20.06, lots of it. >>



    How come? Why that particular.
    COA
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    junior gold miners EFT. Expecting a move up (dollar move down) as world-wide central banks go on a money printing binge. Juniors have taken it pretty bad in the last dip, should see some of the best gains.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lightened up considerably today on juniors and seniors. There are some excellent signs in the BPGDM (>5 dma) and GDX/GDXJ 3-10-20 dma's all bullishly aligned.
    Still, volume hasn't been quite there on this last up move. GLD has filled all nearby gaps (high and low). But it's at about the end of another 8 day topping cycle (now 7th day per
    4 hr chart). Dow seems stretched at 13,200 especially with a higher VXO gap left a couple of days ago. Miners will rotate into their weak OE period next Tues-Wed. Doesn't
    give them a whole lot of time to move up. Seniors are constrained by the 50 dma right now which also keeps GDXJ in tow. If GDX can bounce one more time to fill that gap just
    below 46 it will help. But gold looks sluggish like it wants to cycle down to the bottom of the triangle one more time ($1590-$1600). GLD/SLV ratio (GSR) trying to break below the
    50 dma but still hanging tightly to it. Until GSR breaks sharply below that 50 dma line, the action will remain topsy turvy.

    Quarterly reports continue to trickle in on the juniors. And as a whole, they aren't very good. These guys have their work cut out for them going forward. Tues-Thursday this week are 3-10-30 yr TBond auctions. Today's 3 yr was solid at 3.5 bid to cover with $32 BILL sold. More often than not these auction weeks make it hard for gold and miners to get a footing. Significant lower gaps in some miners gives me some concern (GSS, AZK, FNV, HMY, GFI, GOLD). Last month, all the miners dropped together in a "team effort" to help AU finally fill its very deep gap. Miners have been brutal the past 10 months in leaving no gap unfilled.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold, Silver, Corn, And Brent Are Best Performers On The 5-Year Anniversary Of The Great Financial Crisis

    IMHO, the bottom is in for gold but how long we trade sideways remains to be seen.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Was in Jackson Hole for the annual PRE-PPT meeting. What I miss?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GVZ, gold volatility, is about as low as it has been in 5 years. We're at 15.15 at the moment, with a low of 14.27 back on March 2011. Although as in the past it can go low and stay low for many weeks in a row.

    Here's the weekly chart.
    image
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yup, not a good sign PC. No push higher on the "breakout" over the last 2 weeks.

    Potential for failure remains high. Thats all I can say image.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Considering miners are leading the way down today, with OE still 3-4 days away, doesn't help any. I figured today and maybe part of Tuesday would be "up" days for miners
    this week. Then OE effects would take over. But with miners tanking so early today, and gold following suit, this isn't a good sign for the rest of this week. Moon change on
    Friday fits in nicely as well......image
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I didn't really have a point other than gold is probably ready to do something with of course the caveat that something could be weeks away still. There's always the Sept Fed meeting but I think any announcements at that meeting are unlikely lest they be seen as political being so close to the election. World events could force something sooner though.

    I'm not trying to say gold can't go lower, but as I've said before, investors and ETFs aren't exactly loaded up on PMs & PM stocks at the moment so they can't exactly dump large inventory on the market unless they go short. But lack of buyers could cause weakness as well.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Surprised no one posted this:
    Billionaires Soros, Paulson Bet Big on Gold

    I wouldn't bet against these guys...

    As far as the current pattern goes I still think we're looking at a few more weeks of sideways with another trip up to 1630 and down to 1600 coming...
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Except that Soros is a bordrline communist and Paulson has really only had one good call in his career. He's destroyed investors over the past 2 years.

    Maybe they both get lucky again.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When Soros referred to gold as "the ultimate bubble", he may have meant that gold is ultimately where most of his assets will be. I can see the concept of gold being the "ultimate bubble" in a way that isn't negative for gold.

    It may be the bubble that never pops, or the bubble that gets adopted de facto as a last resort standard. The politicians are loathe to let that happen, because at that point the public finds out that they can't deliver.

    So, it's the ultimate contest between de facto vs. fiat, with all sorts of other implications.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold being the ultimate bubble isn't a bad thing for gold. Almost all commodities will have or have had bubbles, and gold is no exception. What he's saying (I believe) is that there will come a time (probably not too far off) that EVERYONE will be wanting gold because no one will want to be in fiat or other paper. Bubbles are opportunities to make lots of money, if you play it right.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>CHART OF THE DAY: The World's Central Banks Are Bulking Up In Gold >>



    Lets see. When central banks were selling=gold at lows. When central banks are buying= gold at highs?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China's central bank is buying gold w/o fanfare. They won't report higher gold holdings again until they are close to or beyond the 5,000 tonne mark. And that would
    still be a small portion of their total reserves. It's sort of comical that news reports show excitement for nations picking up 10-50 tonnes of gold per year. But, who knows
    how much of that "bought" gold are just paper claims on some IMF or US/London/German vault somewhere. And then you have China probably buying on the sly at
    500-800 tonnes per year overshadowing everyone else combined. Central banks were sellers of gold for at least 15 years, maybe even 25 years. They have become net
    buyers of gold now for approx 2 yrs. If it took 15 or more years of them selling gold to hit bottom, I suspect it will take more than 2 yrs of buying to find a top.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, what RR said. The selling ocurred over a long period of time, I don't think you could say it was sold at lows.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All I am saying is that selling makes lows and buying makes tops. What these central banks want with gold is beyond me. They should be exchanging theur worthless fiat for something that provides sustinance for their people. Cuz if the people ain't happy they will find they no longer have a central bank. Oh how history repeats.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ran across this China gold article on the JS site

    China is looking to find means to sustain their economy. They are on a buying spree around the world buying up commodity sources (foods, metals, energy, etc.).
    I don't think it's realistic for them to solve the extended sustenance problem overnight. But having a currency backed by something is certainly a good start. And even
    if they do make it to the 6,000 tonne level, that's still only around $300 BILL at today's levels (ie 75 days of US budget spending). That's a fairly small fraction of the total
    Chinese reserves and assets. Seems like a smart idea to match the gold reserves of both Germany and USA. When those countries sell off all their gold, then maybe
    China will do the same. For some reason having stores of gold worked pretty well for building empires in the 16th to 20th centuries (he who had the gold made the rules and
    boomed industrially). People willingly came to the countries with "gold." Until a new paradigm gets "discovered," what worked before could well work again. One thing is for
    certain, the debt, derivatives, and donuts paradigm seems to have shot itself in the foot. China is making inroads on the sustenance issue by shifting some of its reserves from
    paper assets to harder assets. Can't aruge with that.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I didn't have time to write last night but Nichols is expecting an imminent breakout this week, and the move this morning just might be it. I'd still like to see it clear 1640 decisively and even then this could just be a return to 1700...

    But also worth noting is that platinum is up over $100 in the last 4 days and looks poised for a great run. Anyone wanting a 2012 Platinum Eagle should order it NOW.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is looking REALLY good with the move up to 1668 tonight. This breakout is for real. Of course anything can happen, but all indications say this rocket is about to launch. Next target, $2000+ by the end of year. In the short term though, $1700 is imminent.

    And look at Platinum! Hope you all bought your 2012 APEs... mint just raised the price.

    Palladium looking good too.

    Silver looking good and back above $30!

    Added: The last time we saw this something was in the works... this time there are two great possibilities. The fed comments of an official QE3 coming soon or Israel attacking Iran and/or Syria blowing up. Looks to me like insiders are loading up and not allowing any real pullbacks. Serious accumulation is happening.
  • There seems to be a lot of traders just waiting and may have already shorted in this area, that to me is a bullish sentiment and appears that they have bought into the every time Silver goes up alittle its good to short. Once just about every one is convinced its going to work that way every time the tide has already shifted. This tide may be going back out with a force that will sweep the shorts out with it. They might should invest in a few life savers.

    Saying that, there is some possible resistance in the 30.25-30.70 range, we are in the midst of that range now. we may see some consolidation taking place, but the underlying trend appears to be solidly up.
    NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Miners To Underperform Precious Metals in the Weeks to Come

    "the situation is less favorable for the precious metals mining stocks than it is for the underlying metals."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>All I am saying is that selling makes lows and buying makes tops. What these central banks want with gold is beyond me. They should be exchanging theur worthless fiat for something that provides sustinance for their people. Cuz if the people ain't happy they will find they no longer have a central bank. Oh how history repeats. >>


    It's quite possible that they now see gold as a store of value in times of uncertainty - something many informed readers here realized long ago. It's more likely they have always seen gold as a store of value and have recently admitted to themselves that their failing crisis management now dictates a protective move to a store of value. I personally view their move to gold to be an admission that they have failed in their great economic recovery experiment and they have run out of ammunition - time to self-preserve.

    The US central bank in particular is not in the business of providing sustinance to the people - it is in the business of providing profits to it's private owners and pacifying political leaders who allow it to do so at great cost/debt to "the people." FED actions that do not directly reduce the peoples' paychecks often reduce the value of what's left of those paychecks. There is nothing "federal" about the FED except that it's license to steal remains blessed by complicent federal representatives who get a cut of the booty.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Miners To Underperform Precious Metals in the Weeks to Come

    "the situation is less favorable for the precious metals mining stocks than it is for the underlying metals." >>


    I have to disagree with the negativity to mining stocks in the article, but I have no opinion on whether metals will outperform mining stocks or v.v.

    The SP500 actually looks to be in great shape to rally over the next few months, at least until the election. And with a QE liquidity injection stocks will have a difficult time going down. Now if metals take off like I think they are about to, then I think this recipe bodes well for mining stocks overall.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting article from Zero Hedge about the Jackson Hole meeting. I think I kind of agree that no QE will be announced at JH and instead will be delayed until the Sept FOMC meeting.

    So my prediction for what's going to happen is that gold will climb to $1700 in the next few days in anticipation of QE3. But after being disappointed, gold will pull back to the mid or low $1600's until the mid-Sept FOMC meeting where QE3 is finally announced.

    I think I just say this because there is too much anticipation of QE3 and the markets don't like to be predictable. Although gold is more than ready for a move RIGHT NOW, the markets love to tease.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Miners To Underperform Precious Metals in the Weeks to Come

    "the situation is less favorable for the precious metals mining stocks than it is for the underlying metals." >>


    I have to disagree with the negativity to mining stocks in the article, but I have no opinion on whether metals will outperform mining stocks or v.v.

    The SP500 actually looks to be in great shape to rally over the next few months, at least until the election. And with a QE liquidity injection stocks will have a difficult time going down. Now if metals take off like I think they are about to, then I think this recipe bodes well for mining stocks overall. >>


    Much of the value of a mining stock is tied to the gold it pulls from the ground. As that supply gets smaller (peak gold?) it is producing less product while its costs to do so normally become greater. "Underground reserves" are estimates only and are only proven correct many years later after it has all been removed from the ground.

    A rising gold price is only good for a gold mine if it can pull gold from the ground. Shrinking supply and rising costs should be considered along with a rising gold price. The gold price can go to the moon, but reductions in production are negative to a stock's value.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey



  • << <i>Interesting article from Zero Hedge about the Jackson Hole meeting. I think I kind of agree that no QE will be announced at JH and instead will be delayed until the Sept FOMC meeting.

    So my prediction for what's going to happen is that gold will climb to $1700 in the next few days in anticipation of QE3. But after being disappointed, gold will pull back to the mid or low $1600's until the mid-Sept FOMC meeting where QE3 is finally announced.

    I think I just say this because there is too much anticipation of QE3 and the markets don't like to be predictable. Although gold is more than ready for a move RIGHT NOW, the markets love to tease. >>



    I've got a feeling the scenario you spelled out is already priced into the market.
    NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Much of the value of a mining stock is tied to the gold it pulls from the ground. As that supply gets smaller (peak gold?) it is producing less product while its costs to do so normally become greater. "Underground reserves" are estimates only and are only proven correct many years later after it has all been removed from the ground.

    A rising gold price is only good for a gold mine if it can pull gold from the ground. Shrinking supply and rising costs should be considered along with a rising gold price. The gold price can go to the moon, but reductions in production are negative to a stock's value. >>



    Yes, but the comments above are with reference to the "weeks to come" not months or years to come, so a relatively short time window where gold production (and costs) are fairly certain and predictable and don't factor into price changes (unless something happens or is announced that will affect production).

    Naturally, mining stocks are still a business with profits and expenses and a rising sale price means increased profits. But you can never forget that you still need an overall successful mining operation with competent management, stable cost structure, and all other factors that lead to profits.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Interesting article from Zero Hedge about the Jackson Hole meeting. I think I kind of agree that no QE will be announced at JH and instead will be delayed until the Sept FOMC meeting.

    So my prediction for what's going to happen is that gold will climb to $1700 in the next few days in anticipation of QE3. But after being disappointed, gold will pull back to the mid or low $1600's until the mid-Sept FOMC meeting where QE3 is finally announced.

    I think I just say this because there is too much anticipation of QE3 and the markets don't like to be predictable. Although gold is more than ready for a move RIGHT NOW, the markets love to tease. >>




    I think I wrote a few weeks from my meeting in JH that nothing special was gonna happen. Gold and silver remain in their respective downtrends (consolidations). Massive potential of disappointment for both longs and shorts.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dont usually see a break of trend with only 3 tests of the trend, so I dont expect a break now. One can easily see the importance of the $1525 area.


    image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Filled the first gap in GLD today. Next one is around 157.4 ($1622 gold). Filling that would represent a good backtest of the triangle breakout that just occurred.
    Today's $1652 low tagged the 2 week uptrend line. But I think tagging the 6-7 week line makes more sense where RSI (8 hr) can get back down to <40 where the 18-20 day
    cycle peaks have been bottoming at. Miners have only a little more work to do to fill gaps from last Monday's gap up. SLV has a lot more work to do as it has been
    more resilient (gaps at 29 and 28). Two TNote auctions down so far this week. 2 yr Note auction was 3.94 bid to cover while the 5 yr was just <3.0 btc (both at $35B sold).
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,036 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm going to maintain that something is still set to happen either this week, with the Sept FOMC meeting or some world event in September.

    I still prefer to draw the line at the top of the candlestick rather than the wick, and it was just a false breakout that we saw a few months ago. The next breakout isn't going to be false...

    The fractal energy levels along with the volatility levels are just waiting to release into a new move. I will grant the caveat that it could be a few more months (post election?) due to the fact that the next trend to start will be on a larger weekly or monthly time frame, so waddling around at these levels for another month or two doesn't mean much in those timeframes. But the move is coming, and my money is on sooner rather than later.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭
    next breakout isn't going to be false


    Agreed on that!! A break to the upside finally gets people back to even after a year+ hold. Then they still be stuck in a sideways pattern. Or a break to the downside completes only a typical 38% retracement. But those holding gold at $1800+ wont be very happy and will SCREAM manipulation when gold carries a 13 (or maybe 12) handle.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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