A hypothetical question. . . .
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Dentuck
Posts: 3,854 ✭✭✭✭
If you wanted to corner the market on 1937-D Buffalo nickels --- to own
every single surviving example of that coin --- how much money would
you have to shell out?
every single surviving example of that coin --- how much money would
you have to shell out?
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Comments
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I think someone has already done it.....
because I can't seem to find a single example in high grade..
Is it you........you already have them all, don't you?
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lets say 70% of the original mintage still exists, if you bought them all at face value, it would cost $623,910.00 x that by ten for even average circs is $6,239,100.00 the obvious question is COULD it be done in a lifetime ? i gave up trying to calculate how many would have to be bought every day to theoretically acquire them all... and that is assuming a 70% survival rate. i believe if someone were to attempt this, they would die trying and still never own every last one in existenceregardless of how many posts I have, I don't consider myself an "expert" at anything0
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Assumptions:
1)100% of the mintage is still in existence.
2) Since you are cornering the market, you will not be able to pay wholesale.
The price will increase as supply diminishes.
Therefore, assume current retail, to balance out wholesale vs retail prices, and price increases.
3) A slightly skewed grade report, since the Buffalo was withdrawn quickly after the introduction of the Jefferson nickels.
Despite a large number still being in circulation in the 1960's, higher grade pieces were pulled as they were discovered.
4) Culls are deemed to be the regular grades, since you need them, and will pay for them.
Therefore:
Grade: %'age in extant X Retail Price = Extension
G 1% $1 =$ 178,228
VG 2% $1 = $356,520
F 7% $2 = $1,247,609
VF 20% $3 = $3,564,597
XF 30% $3 = $5,347,800
AU 10% $10 = $17,826,000
Unc 10% $15= $26,739,000
MS 63 10% $27 = $30,304,200
MS 65 5% $48 = $42,782,400
Total + $128,346,354
Total mintage= #17,826,000
Less 3 leg Buffs: 3,014
Net = 17,822,986
less #1 -1 (explained later)
Net 17,822,985
3 leg buffs:
G= #500 = $287,500
VG= #500 = $337,500
F= #1,000 = $750,000
VF-XF=#1,000 - $1,000,000
Unc= #5 = $12,000
MS-63 #5 = $28,750
MS-65 #3 = $127,500
MS 66= #1 = 127,500
Total = $$2,869,500
Total = $128,346,354
Plus: 2,869,500
Total = $131,215,854
Plus (remember that 1 up above?)
Since there is only one left, it is now worth as much as a 1933 Double Eagle, so:
Total = $131,215,854
Plus: 8,000,000
Total= $139,215,854
There you have it, Dennis.
No problem, now, is it time to break out your checking account?
Frank
BHNC #2030 -
LOL! I love it.
That was some good accounting, Frank --- you're hired. I begin my market-cornering tomorrow morning.
At the end of the process, I'll melt down all of the nickels except for one, and have them cast in the shape of a gigantic Buffalo nickel replica to be displayed at the Smithsonian.
I can imagine the conversation when it comes time to sell the now-unique 1937-D:
"How much do you want for it?"
"How much are you offering?"
"I'll give you $9 million."
"No can do. I have too much in it."
Then I counter at $275 million, and we negotiate to an even $150 million. I made a profit!
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Sounds like a deal!
Don't forget my percentage.
And the one piece that (to semi-quote Charles Heston) you have to pry out of my cold dead hands.Frank
BHNC #2030 -
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<< <i>At the end of the process, I'll melt down all of the nickels except for one, and have them cast in the shape of a gigantic Buffalo nickel replica to be displayed at the Smithsonian. >>
I believe this was the exact plot for an old episode of Barnaby Jones.0 -
Hypothetically, I'd have to want to corner the market. Numismatically, I've had 4 of those coins. 3 graded AU, one went raw on ebay, and they don't exactly sell like hotcakes. Economically, I'd love to find a '36 D 3 Legged Buffalo in AU.0
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<< <i>Why would you want to do that? Why not try to corner the market on something that there are not so many of? >>
Just for the fun of it, of course.
And Dennis needs a place to spend all of his lottery winnings.
Frank
BHNC #2030 -
For one thing.....it couldn't be done even if you had the money. Just think of how many are stuck away in cans or jars that people don't even know they have.
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You couldn't get them all, but if you stuck with it over a lifetime, you'd probably be able to drive up the price a good bit.0
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oy.
Frank
BHNC #2030 -
Even the guy (or gal) who bought the 1933 Double Eagle couldn't corner the market; a few years later the family of that dealer "discovered" ten more in the attic!
The boys are right I'm afraid no matter how many you have another is bound to turn up.
I am still waiting for the rest of the 1913 V nickels
Also another reason I like essai and probe (or patterns for you liteside folks) because when the mint only makes 100 or 500 copies it's a more definite figure than saying they made a million, destroyed "all" and then six or seven mysteriously survive ... impossible to say those stragglers are the only ones ...0 -
I've had similar thoughts.... But a different "target". The Vermont Baby Head Ryder 9 is an interesting and rare coin. It's estimated only about 250 exist. ALL but a handful are F-VF or lower and most are reasonably priced. Enen if you could pry loose the only known AU in private hands (Bowers) that leaves one better held by the Bennington Museum. Most known would sell for 500 to 2k. I've got 6 already! Tony Carlotto I think told me at one time he had 25 of them.0
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there are far more interesting coins to corner the market on, an 1846 dime for example.. 31,300 minted, if 5% still exist (very optimistic estimate) thats only 1565 coins. that would seem to be a task that is somewhat attainable, a few are gonna cost you tens of thousands of dollars, but the rest can be had for 250-2500 but it would be possible in ONE lifetime. and you would spend a tenth of what all those 37-d buffs would cost.. youd end up with a replica of something you could display on your desk.regardless of how many posts I have, I don't consider myself an "expert" at anything0
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All this talk of a hoarder cornering the market in 1909 V.D.B. Matte Proof Lincoln cents made me recall this scenario.
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I'd pick the 50 D, it be easier and cheaper
StevePromote the Hobby0 -
<< <i>Assumptions:
1)100% of the mintage is still in existence.
2) Since you are cornering the market, you will not be able to pay wholesale.
The price will increase as supply diminishes.
Therefore, assume current retail, to balance out wholesale vs retail prices, and price increases.
3) A slightly skewed grade report, since the Buffalo was withdrawn quickly after the introduction of the Jefferson nickels.
Despite a large number still being in circulation in the 1960's, higher grade pieces were pulled as they were discovered.
4) Culls are deemed to be the regular grades, since you need them, and will pay for them.
Therefore:
Grade: %'age in extant X Retail Price = Extension
G 1% $1 =$ 178,228
VG 2% $1 = $356,520
F 7% $2 = $1,247,609
VF 20% $3 = $3,564,597
XF 30% $3 = $5,347,800
AU 10% $10 = $17,826,000
Unc 10% $15= $26,739,000
MS 63 10% $27 = $30,304,200
MS 65 5% $48 = $42,782,400
Total + $128,346,354
Total mintage= #17,826,000
Less 3 leg Buffs: 3,014
Net = 17,822,986
less #1 -1 (explained later)
Net 17,822,985
3 leg buffs:
G= #500 = $287,500
VG= #500 = $337,500
F= #1,000 = $750,000
VF-XF=#1,000 - $1,000,000
Unc= #5 = $12,000
MS-63 #5 = $28,750
MS-65 #3 = $127,500
MS 66= #1 = 127,500
Total = $$2,869,500
Total = $128,346,354
Plus: 2,869,500
Total = $131,215,854
Plus (remember that 1 up above?)
Since there is only one left, it is now worth as much as a 1933 Double Eagle, so:
Total = $131,215,854
Plus: 8,000,000
Total= $139,215,854
There you have it, Dennis.
No problem, now, is it time to break out your checking account? >>
$139,215,854??? That's IT????
Off to ebay, first (ebay bucks), then to all the dealer websites, CCE, etc....Looks like I'll be busy, starting right now, playing Hunt Bros, except with '37-D Buffs, not silver (hell, won't be long till you can grab an oz of silver for the FACE value of one of those '37-D Buffs!)!
Now, do I go after the 3 leggers first, or ??? Hmmm, tough decision!
Oh, if I happen to purchase some from any of you members, please hold the check for, oh, not long..... say, Jan 1st, 2114!!0 -
Impossible, I'm not selling mine!
NO amount of money!!!!
bob Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com0 -
I have maybe 5-6 37-d's.......and I'm not selling!
......I collect old stuff......0 -
<< <i>All this talk of a hoarder cornering the market in 1909 V.D.B. Matte Proof Lincoln cents made me recall this scenario. >>
My first thought was
ONE BILLION $0 -
Oh, please do corner the market on some 20th century coin like the '37-D Buff. Then, just as you're on your way to the Smithsonian to donate that giant Buffalo sculpture, I'll be on MY way to Hanover Park with my metal detector. Every once in a while you'll get an email saying, "Hey, you missed one! Wanna buy it?"
Collector since 1976. On the CU forums here since 2001.
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Interesting concept.... out of the realm of reality, but the computations make sense.... Cheers, RickO0
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All the recent talk about having $100 million and ten years to corner the market in 1909-S V.D.B. Lincolns made me think of this thread from 2012.0
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Wouldn't it be easier to corner the market on the 1938-S Buffalo?
Everyone can afford to do it! 
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Originally posted by: Dentuck
All the recent talk about having $100 million and ten years to corner the market in 1909-S V.D.B. Lincolns made me think of this thread from 2012.
I remember this one. The computations flew way over my head, but it was an interesting topic to speculate on, all the same.
Collector since 1976. On the CU forums here since 2001.
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