Key date coins….Hype vs Value?

LindeDad · July 20, 2012 4:25AM

We all hear the adage buy the keys first but when a person looks at availability and cost a very clear disconnect happens in some cases.

When searching for coins I have found there to be more listings for key date than some of the more common dates in my favorite series.

Sampling would be the 1938-D Walker with a mintage of 491,600 today has 646 items listed on eBay. While the much higher mintage 1940-S at 4,550,000 has only 63 items listed.

Note the almost ten to one ratio.

So one has to ask is a Key date rare?

Oh and the value portion is simple look at the prices in the “Red Book” or the listings that 10 to 1 seems to apply.

Has anyone else found this in other series or did I just stumble on a odd case?

Jinx86 · July 20, 2012 4:29AM

38 D walkers are easy to come by in most grades, above vf though nice ones become harder. As for 40 S lower grades are not collected, where as the 38 D is collectible in all grades.

Edited to add: I have 3 lower grade 38 D's right now and 2 Unc 40 S's in my boxes right now. Im more likely to sell the 38 D's faster.

DIMEMAN · July 20, 2012 4:34AM

I think most series has this. In the Mercury dime series the 16-D is deemed the key. While it is very expensive, it is much easier to find than a lot of other dates. I think the difference is rare and key. Key is most expensive and rare are hard to find.

You can find 16-D's everywhere any show any size. Try finding a nice 27-S!

LanceNewmanOCC · July 20, 2012 4:38AM

.
i've noticed this too after a year into numismatics. probably just because there are not enough collectors with enough dough/desire to pull them off the market

this past week i went through a dozen 38-d 50c, 94 $1, 09-s vdb, 08-s 1c, 09-s 1c lin and indi, and 93-s $1 and many others

also with problem coins not slabbing, people prefer to not own an example if they cannot have a nice one

awareness about numismatics is a major factor. it has been said b3fore and i'll say it again, there are thousands more distractions now

many more things i'm not thinking of as factors i'm sure
.

Walkerguy21D · July 20, 2012 4:42AM

There are different factors to consider.....low mintage does not necessary mean key date, where key date means hard to find. Also some conditional key dates exist, which may or may not necessarily be the lowest mintage coins in a series.
Circ 38D walkers are abundant. They are generally not melted when circ sets are broken up. Probably most of the original mintage exists. Also many were saved at the time of issue, so there are a number of Uncs around. However, I think 38D's in true, nice AU are kind of scarce, at least whenever I need to find one!
Then take a 21D - again, in G and VG, you could probably fill a roll or two at a good sized show. Fines are tougher, and at VF and higher, the coin becomes quite scarce. Nice AU 21D's are flat out rare. But, the same can also be said of the much higher mintage 23S walker - lots of low grades, very few AU's around.
1885 nickels - AG's and G's are everywhere, and the Proofs are not difficult. But in VF and XF, much tougher coin to find. Many of the Barber coins are like this too.
And there are many more examples.

dogwood · July 20, 2012 4:55AM

Take the 13s Barber Quarter, mintage 40,000.
PCGS has graded 733 of these between grades AG3 and VG10.
In Fine12, a $4,000+ coin of late, they have graded 31 examples.
VF to AU is the only logical grade to buy that coin, but there are issues that are just as scarce, by graded population and traditional scarcity, that sell for a fraction of the money in VF to AU.
It's a mess of hype, I suppose.

Treashunt · July 20, 2012 5:22AM

Just think about it.

Why would most sellers bother to list a 1940 S?

The cost of listing, postage and Paypal fees are so high that the seller is better off selling the coin as 'junk silver'.

So, it seems smart, to me, not to list that common date piece.

rec78 · July 20, 2012 5:53AM

<< Just think about it.

Why would most sellers bother to list a 1940 S?

The cost of listing, postage and Paypal fees are so high that the seller is better off selling the coin as 'junk silver'.

So, it seems smart, to me, not to list that common date piece. >>

So I counted the number of BU examples, as sellers are likely to list the BU coins -there were 11 BU 1938-D's and only 17 BU 1940-S's.
This only reflects today's ratio and tomorrow's could be totally different. With all the silver melts who know what is left today. 1940-S's could possibly be scarcer than 1938-D's in circulated grades but are still only worth bullion. I think that traditional perception has a lot to with it also.
Bob

Unknown · July 20, 2012 6:10AM

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MikeInFL · July 20, 2012 6:39AM

<< We all hear the adage buy the keys first but when a person looks at availability and cost a very clear disconnect happens in some cases.

When searching for coins I have found there to be more listings for key date than some of the more common dates in my favorite series.

Sampling would be the 1938-D Walker with a mintage of 491,600 today has 646 items listed on eBay. While the much higher mintage 1940-S at 4,550,000 has only 63 items listed.

Note the almost ten to one ratio.

So one has to ask is a Key date rare?

Oh and the value portion is simple look at the prices in the “Red Book” or the listings that 10 to 1 seems to apply.

Has anyone else found this in other series or did I just stumble on a odd case?

>>

I think you are confusing extant population with market supply/demand. Said a bit differently, people are more likely to sell at $1k coin than a $1 coin on eBay.

I also think the same thing happens with virtually all of the modern issues.

LindeDad · July 20, 2012 8:16AM

<< I think you are confusing extant population with market supply/demand. Said a bit differently, people are more likely to sell at $1k coin than a $1 coin on eBay. I also think the same thing happens with virtually all of the modern issues. >>

I do not understand what you are saying here as I see more moderns and $100 or less value coins on eBay than I do $1000.00+ coins.

Unknown · July 20, 2012 8:27AM

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LindeDad · July 20, 2012 8:40AM

<< I would love if somebody could answer a dumbarse question, who or what determines what is a key date, what does a key date for a series really mean? Come on guys does anyone know the answer, I have never purchased/colelcted a key date so i really don't know what it is all about.
Thanks,
RO >>

Almost all series of coins minted have a few coins that by year and mint mark had drastically lower mintages than the other coins in the series.

Unknown · July 20, 2012 8:50AM

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Nickcap · July 20, 2012 8:55AM

I think it has to do with the fact that some of the more common dates are not slabbed.

If you had coins worth $25-50 vs coins that are worth say $200. Would you pay to have those lower value coins slabbed?

There could be millions of coins minted, but maybe not slabbed.

KollectorKing · July 20, 2012 9:04AM

<< I think it has to do with the fact that some of the more common dates are not slabbed.

If you had coins worth $25-50 vs coins that are worth say $200. Would you pay to have those lower value coins slabbed?

There could be millions of coins minted, but maybe not slabbed. >>

or put it more simply: costs vs benefits analysis

ebaybuyer · July 20, 2012 9:06AM

modern "key dates" enjoy popularity moreso than scarcity, almost any coin dealer in the US has a 1916-D dime. multiple pages of them on ebay, its definately not a "scarce" coin, same thing could be said for most "modern" key dates, all hype. then do a search for an 1858-s dime. as of now there are two listings. the 1858-s is clearly the better value

Elcontador · July 20, 2012 12:00PM

Mintage often doesn't have anything to do with what is a key date. The 1879 Dime in MS 65 is priced as a type coin, because virtually none of these coins circulated.

A key date is also not necessarily a scarce coin. If I wanted to pony up the funds, I could find a 1916 SLQ in virtually any grade in a short period of time. Try doing that with an 1896 Liberty Nickel in MS 66.

DeepCoin · July 20, 2012 12:15PM

Key dates in popular series are the easiest to find because the are the easiest to sell. Dealers can sell 32-D Washingtons, 16-D Mercs, etc. all day long. There were less minted, but due to the popularity, they have mostly come out of hiding. All you need to do is write the check. There is little searching other than to get one decent for the grade IMHO. The hard part is getting a quality coin that is flying under the radar.

lasvegasteddy · July 20, 2012 12:20PM

buy the keys 1st
heard that somewhere i did
i stumbled into this place and learned "key's" can be deceiving
best to study keys and rarity 1st i say
lights turn on then

MidLifeCrisis · July 20, 2012 12:33PM

My thoughts on this topic

GoldenEyeNumismatics · July 20, 2012 12:45PM

In the case of the 38-D Walker, I've gone through dozens of $1000 FV bags of unsearched Walkers and they came just about as easy as any other 1930s date.

Key date coins….Hype vs Value?

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