Can a Dealer Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

Coinosaurus · July 11, 2012 12:48PM

Are collectors lemmings? Or are enough of them lemmings such that a single dealer can move the market?

Sometimes I wonder if it is about the coins or about the people.

JCMhouston · July 11, 2012 1:01PM

I'm not sure about just one, but a very small group of dealers can certainly create a major market move.

messydesk · July 11, 2012 1:29PM

I think that's what keeps a Well Managed Promotion™ afloat.

bidask · July 11, 2012 3:21PM

I think the answer is yes which is why I tend to collect coins that cannot be promoted...

Unknown · July 11, 2012 3:26PM

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RYK · July 11, 2012 3:27PM

Can a Collector Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

YES!

PerryHall · July 11, 2012 5:25PM

<< Can a Collector Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

YES! >>

Agree. I think you have made dirty gold coins more popular and I see more forum member pursuing these coins.

DHeath · July 11, 2012 9:09PM

Yes. Collectors are manipulable and fear is the most powerful lever, whether its fear of missing an opportunity, fear of loss, fear of ignorance, etc. Dealers who exploit that tendency can manipulate collectors. Unfortunately, it raises the anxiety level and drives many from the hobby.

curly · July 11, 2012 9:18PM

<< Are collectors lemmings? Or are enough of them lemmings such that a single dealer can move the market?. >>

YES! At least for a while.

MrEureka · July 11, 2012 9:22PM

Can a Dealer Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

In the long run, dealer personalities can have a big impact. And it can go either way, moving the market higher or lower.

Without naming names or market segments, consider if a small group of highly professional, knowledgeable and trustworthy dealers come to dominate a market segment. Collectors that are involved in that market will feel comfortable spending more than they otherwise might have, and new collectors may be attracted not only by the coins but by having a pleasant, viable and reasonably safe way to pursue that particular series of coins.

Now, consider a market segment dominated by promoters, coin doctors and high-margin telemarketers. Collectors may be driven away by the polluted waters.

Also, collectors and numismatic authors can have similar long term effects on a market. Look at it this way: Without the community - dealers, collectors, authors, etc - that comprises the market for rare coins, the coins are worth no more than scrap metal. So the quality of the community should certainly affect prices.

DHeath · July 11, 2012 10:10PM

If one were to do content analysis of the messages collectors are exposed to regarding the coin market, they would suggest that the coin market is a very dangerous place. It is filled with self-serving promoters, shills, problem coins, inferior or inconsistent grading standards, cronyism, coin doctoring, market manipulation, dealer wannabes and dreck. You can trust no one but the messenger. Who wouldn't want to be part of that.

I always appreciated Julian's tag line, as it makes me want to participate.

edited to add: I forgot the ANA and PNG are also in need of reform.

DHeath · July 11, 2012 10:25PM

Julian's tagline: I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories

Sonorandesertrat · July 11, 2012 11:01PM

<< Can a Dealer Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

In the long run, dealer personalities can have a big impact. And it can go either way, moving the market higher or lower.

Without naming names or market segments, consider if a small group of highly professional, knowledgeable and trustworthy dealers come to dominate a market segment. Collectors that are involved in that market will feel comfortable spending more than they otherwise might have, and new collectors may be attracted not only by the coins but by having a pleasant, viable and reasonably safe way to pursue that particular series of coins.

Now, consider a market segment dominated by promoters, coin doctors and high-margin telemarketers. Collectors may be driven away by the polluted waters.

Also, collectors and numismatic authors can have similar long term effects on a market. Look at it this way: Without the community - dealers, collectors, authors, etc - that comprises the market for rare coins, the coins are worth no more than scrap metal. So the quality of the community should certainly affects prices. >>

astrorat · July 11, 2012 11:50PM

<< If one were to do content analysis of the messages collectors are exposed to regarding the coin market, they would suggest that the coin market is a very dangerous place. It is filled with self-serving promoters, shills, problem coins, inferior or inconsistent grading standards, cronyism, coin doctoring, market manipulation, dealer wannabes and dreck. >>

Read numismatic literature from the late 18th and early 19th century ... not much has changed since then. The "problems" raised are not new to numismatics or even unique to our hobby.

DHeath · July 12, 2012 12:03AM

Read numismatic literature from the late 18th and early 19th century ... not much has changed since then. The "problems" raised are not new to numismatics or even unique to our hobby.

Do you think that's interesting in the presence of TPG and buy-back guarantees?

MrEureka · July 12, 2012 12:17AM

If one were to do content analysis of the messages collectors are exposed to regarding the coin market, they would suggest that the coin market is a very dangerous place. It is filled with self-serving promoters, shills, problem coins, inferior or inconsistent grading standards, cronyism, coin doctoring, market manipulation, dealer wannabes and dreck.

It depends on what the collectors are reading. If they're reading specialist journals regarding early US copper, colonials, numismatic literature, or die varieties of any series, things will seem pretty good. If, on the other hand, one reads this forum, they may end up stressed and paranoid.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 12, 2012 1:12AM

No he cannot. But he may.

Elcontador · July 12, 2012 1:29AM

<< If one were to do content analysis of the messages collectors are exposed to regarding the coin market, they would suggest that the coin market is a very dangerous place. It is filled with self-serving promoters, shills, problem coins, inferior or inconsistent grading standards, cronyism, coin doctoring, market manipulation, dealer wannabes and dreck. You can trust no one but the messenger. >>

The above is essentially accurate. I've seen situations where a handful of individuals have manipulated the market re specific series of coins in specific grades. Many collectors usually buy into this hype with a "hurry before it is too late" mentality. As others have said, none of this is new, but as more money is in numismatics now, you see it more often.

The good thing is that if you know what is going on, or if you don't know, you can find out, you can avoid making (expensive) mistakes. Remember, buying coins is always optional. Never spend more than you can afford to lose on any hobby.

kiyote · July 12, 2012 2:30AM

Heck yah.. look at the rolls of Presidental dollars being sold at a premium on HSN channels. Wow, talk about a crazy ROI. (For HSN, not the people that paid $45.99 + shipping for a bank wrapped roll of 25 dollar coins)

tradedollarnut · July 12, 2012 3:45AM

One sentence is all it takes to answer in the affirmative:

B Max Mehl and the 1913 Liberty Head nickels.

Ahrensdad · July 12, 2012 4:09AM

Before the 1894 $1 took the big run up in price 7-8 years ago, Joel Edler wrote an article about it being undervalued in NN. Within 6 months the prices jumped dramatically. I would say he moved the market. Not by promotion, rather through the dissemination of information. It seems to me that "force of personality" equates to promotion. In that case, see B. Max Mehl as indicated above by Tradedollarnut.

ziggy29 · July 12, 2012 5:06AM

<< B Max Mehl and the 1913 Liberty Head nickels. >>

My very first thought also. And to a degree it wasn't even about the 1913 Liberty nickels per se, but to get a lot of people to start looking at their change and effectively become coin collectors (aka "new customers").

mozin · July 12, 2012 7:28AM

Larry Shepherd is a market mover in the high-end beautifully toned Classic Commemoratives, has been for a couple of decades.

MrEureka · July 12, 2012 7:34AM

Before the 1894 $1 took the big run up in price 7-8 years ago, Joel Edler wrote an article about it being undervalued in NN. Within 6 months the prices jumped dramatically. I would say he moved the market. Not by promotion, rather through the dissemination of information. It seems to me that "force of personality" equates to promotion.

Although I have no specific knowledge of this particular situation, it seems likely that somebody with a large position in 1894 Dollars might have touted the coin to Joel Edler before he even considered writing the article. It wouldn't be the first time that a coin dealer used the press to his advantage.

Elcontador · July 12, 2012 7:36AM

What typically happens is that a particular coin is a particular grade is selling for $X. You don't see many around for awhile. Then all of a sudden, a number of them are offered, but at substantially higher prices than before. People usually can't get enough of this stuff.

I've seen this happen with Liberty Nickels in PC 6, where I think 24 of them were offered at a Superior Coin auction circa 2000, Capped Bust Halves in PC 5 holders, and AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $s. I'm sure it has happened with other coin series which I do not follow.

LindeDad · July 12, 2012 7:38AM

Personality only No Way...Personality and deep pockets sure.

Can a Dealer Move a Market by Sheer Force of Personality?

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