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Silver - Time to fish or cut bait?

derrybderryb Posts: 36,221 ✭✭✭✭✭

Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,552 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Im hoping it reaches $20 then I will buy, if it reaches $21 Im still waiting for $20
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    JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've always maintained that silver is a highly speculative metal and is not for the feint of heart.Owning and stacking silver takes stamina, stubbornness and a cast iron stomach. Silver is entry level/gateway metal and it many use it for a get rich quick scheme. Most buy and sell exactly at the wrong times. Lot's of novices in silver and novices panic in an already thin market which only adds fuel to the fire.

    I consider all the silver I own as the riskiest part of my portfolio. I doubt I change my opinion on this in my life time.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,387 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The point of stacking is the spreading out of market risk over time. If you hold true to that model of accumulation, you have benefited from a rise in the baseline price. The only way I'd put money into silver is over time, mainly BECAUSE of the volatility. And I try to be somewhat consistant about it - I've bought silver in my current stash at prices anywhere from $6.00/oz. to $35.00/oz. Does that mean I was brilliant at $6.00 and stupid at $35.00? I think not.

    However, the REASON that silver is a good speculation is similar to the reason that gold is a good speculation - because the dollar isn't holding its value over time. Note that I say, over time.

    Silver has other aspects such as the industrial demand and the impact of stimulus spending in hopes of stimulating industrial activity. I don't think that monetary stimulus does anything directly to the demand for silver (i.e., stimulus spending doesn't really work), but I do think that stimulus spending potentiates the reaction of silver's price to the "hope of industrial activity".

    The point being, if you ignore the day-to-day heart attack inducing moves in silver, it's still got reasonably good fundamentals over time due to the trashing of the dollar. I see nothing in the political or financial horizon to change that yet, but if I do it's time to start shoveling in the opposite direction, over time of course.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    Article was simple and to the point. If you believe that PM's will continue to rise BECAUSE the value of the dollar continues to fall, then pull up the wagon now. It's monetary printing to infinity, debt, and the dollar losing it's reserve currency status. I'll call this the Triangle Implosion.

    It takes my breath away when I hear "top economic scholars" mention CONFIDENCE in our monetary system is the problem. (I turn them off immediately) Confidence is a result of real actions and results, nothing more and nothing less.



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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,630 ✭✭✭✭✭
    50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.

    Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
    Silver is a speculative investment; and those kinds of investments tend to have big tradeoffs between risk / reward. I have physical silver and am very happy to own it, regardless of daily market price gyrations. I don't check APMEX's board every day. Silver has always had value, in every civilization, for thousands of years. I can say with absolute confidence that in 10, 20, 50 years, it will still be valuable. The question is, what will be its price? No one knows. Personally I think the massive quantitative easing over the last few years could well be like a pregnancy (Jim Sinclair's term) which in time will give birth to significant inflation. That is when silver will shine. In the meantime, there's nothing wrong with holding a speculative asset like silver as part of a bigger and broader portfolio. I don't know if now's the time to "buy" more silver, or to get in for the first time, but I am sure that's it's not the time to "sell." Patience.
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
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    tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Silver or gold - matters not which you have? (may relate more to what you can purchase cost wize)

    I'm still a little confused about how silver (price!) can outperform gold or other PMs (say gold) when they are so coupled, and also related to the dollar fluctuations.... Say silver supply is having an abundance or a shortfall, how can its spot price swing separately from golds price swings?, because it apparently doesn't. I've seen only matching parallel coupled movement in the charts. If the ratio is has been locked for a long time, then decoupling is only speculation, right?.

    In the 'physical' investor threads, folks are affected by the 'spot price', and it doesn't seem like silver/gold perform separately, regardless of any separate potential of silver. So if you have to pick one, the monetary one is gold?

    (Whatever happens behind the scenes with the paper side is beyond me still, so I know I'm naive.... But I haven't seen any silver hype make silver prices move separately.)

    ----------
    Postulates for the arguement:
    -Whatever I read about silver performance in and of itself, is not reflected in the silver spot price (what is apparent is only the coupling with the gold price).
    -Picking one that had more universal monetary value, it would have to be gold.
    -Silver potential 'seems high', and 'discussed as separate entity', but still couple with gold spot price movements.
    *Other pms closely related, but left out for simplicity sake.

    COA
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    pragmaticgoatpragmaticgoat Posts: 836 ✭✭✭
    always fishing, but the creel just doesn't come home as full as it once did.
    BST references:
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    OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am on the verge of adding 100 ASE since I believe $26-27 is a good point to add more.

    My goal is not to make a quick profit. I certainly view silver is speculative but my timeline for selling is 2022 to 2030. A lot can happen in 10 years.

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    KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186
    I agree, gold will probably do better as a monetary backing, however for centuries, silver coins were also in the mix as a form of currency exchange. If the world goes back to some kind of a gold standard, it's very possible silver will also return to the mix because some central banks may not have enough gold. Liquidity is flowing east my friends. Asia. They really don't want our dollars anymore, therefore what commodity or currency could we use for payment that they would want? Gold, silver, corn, oil, or Yuan, Rupee, Euro's?

    The smart one's should be able to answer that question. I'm not that smart.

    As far as paper holdings...... I left that camp a long time ago...... 2008. Too much manipulation, too much corruption, to much nepotism, liars and crooks the whole lot. Don't get me wrong, I'm not angry, just stating facts.

    The debt of nations is the problem, no one is ever going to pay it off. But, they'll try to steal as much as they can. America has one of the highest corporate tax burdens of any country, why do we have such debt? Find the solution to that question, work the solution and we're back in the game.





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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,387 ✭✭✭✭✭
    50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.

    For perspective, I might point out that some things have changed in the past 25 years. What we really don't know is whether or not people will lose confidence in the management of the monetary system because of the awful job that's been done over the most recent 25 year stretch.

    They never fix the problems, and my suspicion is that they know how to fix them - they just don't want them fixed. I have zero confidence in the management team and the approach they've taken since the repeal of Glass Stegal in 1999. The Community Reinvestment Act in 1979 was bad enough, and now we've got obamacare unless it's repealed. And the kicker - is the baby boomers retirement, and all of its associated unfunded liabilities.

    I didn't even mention the $Quadrillion+ in bad paper, because there's no way to know how it's going to come down. But when it does, it won't be beneficial to anyone who has to deal with it. Thanks Goldman and JPM - I hope the bonuses were worth it. Even if we didn't have all these daunting problems, I wouldn't trust Geithner any further than I could toss him with one arm.

    What does all that mean? I think it means that they are going to be creating more money. I think it means that they are going to significantly devalue the dollar even more than it's already been devalued. And a significant devaluation would be the best outcome. If they screw up the timing, and if people lose confidence the way I have, it's not going to be pretty because the deflationary crash would make your head spin.

    That's my opinion. MF Global has clearly shown us that the courts will protect the criminals and not the individual investors who thought that their segregated accounts were protected by business law. The GM bankruptcy has clearly shown that bondholders can't trust the legal system to enforce bankruptcy law. It's now public knowledge how high frequency trading is used to clean out positions by creating phantom trades that drive prices lower, to hit stop loss positions without cost to the manipulators. We've seen how Goldman Sach frontruns their own clients's trading.

    My own personal problem is that I can't afford to "invest in America" by plunking money into a corrupt stock market and have it turn out horribly wrong. At least, if I have some physical precious metals as assets I won't have to stand around waiting to see if the bankruptcy judge will hand me back a mere pittance for all my trouble.

    Go ahead. Buy that hot stock. Play that straddle. Make those hedge bets. I hope you win.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,630 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You should never sit around waiting for a bankruptcy settlement check as you should sell well before that happens. Even Enron was $5 before it went to zero.

    And nothing has changed.

    I do agree with all that PMs will probably not be "worthless".
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,387 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You should never sit around waiting for a bankruptcy settlement check as you should sell well before that happens. Even Enron was $5 before it went to zero.

    If your clearing house unexpectedly gets shut down, your funds may never be returned.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    InYHWHWeTrustInYHWHWeTrust Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭


    << <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.

    For perspective, I might point out that some things have changed in the past 25 years. What we really don't know is whether or not people will lose confidence in the management of the monetary system because of the awful job that's been done over the most recent 25 year stretch.

    They never fix the problems, and my suspicion is that they know how to fix them - they just don't want them fixed. I have zero confidence in the management team and the approach they've taken since the repeal of Glass Stegal in 1999. The Community Reinvestment Act in 1979 was bad enough, and now we've got obamacare unless it's repealed. And the kicker - is the baby boomers retirement, and all of its associated unfunded liabilities.

    I didn't even mention the $Quadrillion+ in bad paper, because there's no way to know how it's going to come down. But when it does, it won't be beneficial to anyone who has to deal with it. Thanks Goldman and JPM - I hope the bonuses were worth it. Even if we didn't have all these daunting problems, I wouldn't trust Geithner any further than I could toss him with one arm.

    What does all that mean? I think it means that they are going to be creating more money. I think it means that they are going to significantly devalue the dollar even more than it's already been devalued. And a significant devaluation would be the best outcome. If they screw up the timing, and if people lose confidence the way I have, it's not going to be pretty because the deflationary crash would make your head spin.

    That's my opinion. MF Global has clearly shown us that the courts will protect the criminals and not the individual investors who thought that their segregated accounts were protected by business law. The GM bankruptcy has clearly shown that bondholders can't trust the legal system to enforce bankruptcy law. It's now public knowledge how high frequency trading is used to clean out positions by creating phantom trades that drive prices lower, to hit stop loss positions without cost to the manipulators. We've seen how Goldman Sach frontruns their own clients's trading.

    My own personal problem is that I can't afford to "invest in America" by plunking money into a corrupt stock market and have it turn out horribly wrong. At least, if I have some physical precious metals as assets I won't have to stand around waiting to see if the bankruptcy judge will hand me back a mere pittance for all my trouble.

    Go ahead. Buy that hot stock. Play that straddle. Make those hedge bets. I hope you win. >>



    Bravo, jmski. Great post, great summary, hitting so many of the high (low) points of how far deep into the jungle we've ventured. Don't think Ben's helicopters will be of much use this far into our quasi-banana republic.

    I'm amazed how far we've managed to kick this can. The power of the jawbone -- with an empty magazine --still manages to keep the masses in oblivion and calm (not to mention the seemingly endless unemployment benefits).

    the investment of time in readings this message board has been one of the best investments in my portfolio (from here pointed to many other sources to check out).

    And appreciate the point-counterpoint done with vigor and yet, civility here. Bravo again, and thanks to all regular posters.
    Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
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    streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the steam is out of the silver train for a while.

    It's just winding it's way down the mountain right now.

    I'm looking very forward to a little side bet come 12-31-12, EH stamps, milk, wood? image
    Have a nice day
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    tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Silver was $1 up yesterday, down now for my lunch trip. Back in the Buy Zone for me.

    Hope its just sideways - little bit boring...



    << <i>I think the steam is out of the silver train for a while. >>

    COA
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    Timbuk3Timbuk3 Posts: 11,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm cautiously waiting on the
    sidelines. I still think silver
    has a lot lower to go before
    I jump in !!!
    Timbuk3
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    tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Things are drying up. I got two ASE mid-date proofs for $55. Could get the other 6, but ...

    I'm wanting them to offer me a roll of eagles for $2-$3 over with spot this low, or a few sheets of bars or
    even a fractional gold, but nobody is coming into pawn shop other then selling jewelry.
    COA
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    LochNESSLochNESS Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I've always maintained that silver is a highly speculative metal and is not for the feint of heart.Owning and stacking silver takes stamina, stubbornness and a cast iron stomach. Silver is entry level/gateway metal and it many use it for a get rich quick scheme. Most buy and sell exactly at the wrong times. Lot's of novices in silver and novices panic in an already thin market which only adds fuel to the fire ... MJ >>



    re: novices in silver, that is most likely true due to the very nature that silver will always be worth less than other PMs - which is also why it's such a great investment. Consider: (1) there will always be a larger middle-class than upper; (2) there will always be a larger population of collectors catering to middle-class buyers, than those catering to the wealthy; (3) silver has superb strike and eye-appeal that rivals platinum and palladium. Factor in silver's lesser comparative value = it will always retain a higher collectibility value than platinum and palladium.

    Sure the latter metals will always be worth more per ounce, but how easy are they to sell on the market? Silver is and will always be extremely easy to unload no matter how bad the economy gets. I can not say the same for platinum and palladium. If the economy tanks, and belts are tightened, good luck turning a profit on your platinum proof sets.

    If you buy silver strictly for investing that is one thing. But many collectors buy silver for its beauty. I will take a PRDCAM silver over any gold coin any day of the week. Silver, IMHO will always provide a great return.
    ANA LM • WBCC 429

    Amat Colligendo Focum

    Top 10FOR SALE

    image
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    LochNESSLochNESS Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm cautiously waiting on the
    sidelines. I still think silver
    has a lot lower to go before
    I jump in !!! >>



    I totally agree. I see it as an inverse proportion to the economy. When finances tank metals rise. Now that finances are improving [slightly] the BV will drop.

    Of course I could be totally wrong but that's been my experience image
    ANA LM • WBCC 429

    Amat Colligendo Focum

    Top 10FOR SALE

    image
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    kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,568 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.

    Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got? >>



    The older I get, the more I realize gold and money aren't the most valuable things in life-- physical goods you can enjoy like cars or sailboats are.
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.

    Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got? >>



    The older I get, the more I realize gold and money aren't the most valuable things in life-- physical goods you can enjoy like cars or sailboats are. >>



    Get a little older, you might change your mind again. Marriage, becoming a parent might do it. Finding meaningful work might do it. Helping make the world a better place in some small (or large) way might do it..

    Time is essential, but what good is time, or money, without love, or a legacy?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,504 ✭✭✭
    Sold almost half when it was in the 40s. Not stacking this year. Sold some Platinum last year also. I will only speculate in collector bullion. I am on the sidelines concerning PMs this year. I do believe there is some bubble action going on because of the paper trades involved. If physical and paper decouple I will feel more confident in investing more in PMs.
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,221 ✭✭✭✭✭
    John Brown sums it up well

    "In a recession, cash is king. But as a currency deteriorates, gold is king. By their panicked misunderstanding of economics world leaders are threatening to create a world of crippled and shell shocked currencies. Investors should look progressively more towards precious metals as a possible safe haven."

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Thanks for the link to his summary, but you do a better job of explaining it.

    I liked his concept of, 'instead of (cold) war, we have economic and monetary system collapse(s) looming.....'
    --Geez, are they all unqualified, making the wrong decisions, or is this the best we can do?


    John's a little wishy-washy in the last 3 paragraphs regarding investors, and is covering both bases:
    Many buy precious metals. .....its likely that.....
    short-term.. remains volatile..
    metals 'may be' set up to rise..
    ..more towards precious metals as a 'possible' safe haven.

    COA
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