Silver - Time to fish or cut bait?
derryb
Posts: 36,791 ✭✭✭✭✭
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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I consider all the silver I own as the riskiest part of my portfolio. I doubt I change my opinion on this in my life time.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
However, the REASON that silver is a good speculation is similar to the reason that gold is a good speculation - because the dollar isn't holding its value over time. Note that I say, over time.
Silver has other aspects such as the industrial demand and the impact of stimulus spending in hopes of stimulating industrial activity. I don't think that monetary stimulus does anything directly to the demand for silver (i.e., stimulus spending doesn't really work), but I do think that stimulus spending potentiates the reaction of silver's price to the "hope of industrial activity".
The point being, if you ignore the day-to-day heart attack inducing moves in silver, it's still got reasonably good fundamentals over time due to the trashing of the dollar. I see nothing in the political or financial horizon to change that yet, but if I do it's time to start shoveling in the opposite direction, over time of course.
I knew it would happen.
It takes my breath away when I hear "top economic scholars" mention CONFIDENCE in our monetary system is the problem. (I turn them off immediately) Confidence is a result of real actions and results, nothing more and nothing less.
Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm still a little confused about how silver (price!) can outperform gold or other PMs (say gold) when they are so coupled, and also related to the dollar fluctuations.... Say silver supply is having an abundance or a shortfall, how can its spot price swing separately from golds price swings?, because it apparently doesn't. I've seen only matching parallel coupled movement in the charts. If the ratio is has been locked for a long time, then decoupling is only speculation, right?.
In the 'physical' investor threads, folks are affected by the 'spot price', and it doesn't seem like silver/gold perform separately, regardless of any separate potential of silver. So if you have to pick one, the monetary one is gold?
(Whatever happens behind the scenes with the paper side is beyond me still, so I know I'm naive.... But I haven't seen any silver hype make silver prices move separately.)
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Postulates for the arguement:
-Whatever I read about silver performance in and of itself, is not reflected in the silver spot price (what is apparent is only the coupling with the gold price).
-Picking one that had more universal monetary value, it would have to be gold.
-Silver potential 'seems high', and 'discussed as separate entity', but still couple with gold spot price movements.
*Other pms closely related, but left out for simplicity sake.
jdimmick;Gerard;wondercoin;claychaser;agentjim007;CCC2010;guitarwes;TAMU15;Zubie;mariner67;segoja;Smittys;kaz;CARDSANDCOINS;FadeToBlack;
jrt103;tizofthe;bronze6827;mkman;Scootersdad;AllCoinsRule;coindeuce;dmarks;piecesofme; and many more
My goal is not to make a quick profit. I certainly view silver is speculative but my timeline for selling is 2022 to 2030. A lot can happen in 10 years.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
The smart one's should be able to answer that question. I'm not that smart.
As far as paper holdings...... I left that camp a long time ago...... 2008. Too much manipulation, too much corruption, to much nepotism, liars and crooks the whole lot. Don't get me wrong, I'm not angry, just stating facts.
The debt of nations is the problem, no one is ever going to pay it off. But, they'll try to steal as much as they can. America has one of the highest corporate tax burdens of any country, why do we have such debt? Find the solution to that question, work the solution and we're back in the game.
For perspective, I might point out that some things have changed in the past 25 years. What we really don't know is whether or not people will lose confidence in the management of the monetary system because of the awful job that's been done over the most recent 25 year stretch.
They never fix the problems, and my suspicion is that they know how to fix them - they just don't want them fixed. I have zero confidence in the management team and the approach they've taken since the repeal of Glass Stegal in 1999. The Community Reinvestment Act in 1979 was bad enough, and now we've got obamacare unless it's repealed. And the kicker - is the baby boomers retirement, and all of its associated unfunded liabilities.
I didn't even mention the $Quadrillion+ in bad paper, because there's no way to know how it's going to come down. But when it does, it won't be beneficial to anyone who has to deal with it. Thanks Goldman and JPM - I hope the bonuses were worth it. Even if we didn't have all these daunting problems, I wouldn't trust Geithner any further than I could toss him with one arm.
What does all that mean? I think it means that they are going to be creating more money. I think it means that they are going to significantly devalue the dollar even more than it's already been devalued. And a significant devaluation would be the best outcome. If they screw up the timing, and if people lose confidence the way I have, it's not going to be pretty because the deflationary crash would make your head spin.
That's my opinion. MF Global has clearly shown us that the courts will protect the criminals and not the individual investors who thought that their segregated accounts were protected by business law. The GM bankruptcy has clearly shown that bondholders can't trust the legal system to enforce bankruptcy law. It's now public knowledge how high frequency trading is used to clean out positions by creating phantom trades that drive prices lower, to hit stop loss positions without cost to the manipulators. We've seen how Goldman Sach frontruns their own clients's trading.
My own personal problem is that I can't afford to "invest in America" by plunking money into a corrupt stock market and have it turn out horribly wrong. At least, if I have some physical precious metals as assets I won't have to stand around waiting to see if the bankruptcy judge will hand me back a mere pittance for all my trouble.
Go ahead. Buy that hot stock. Play that straddle. Make those hedge bets. I hope you win.
I knew it would happen.
And nothing has changed.
I do agree with all that PMs will probably not be "worthless".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If your clearing house unexpectedly gets shut down, your funds may never be returned.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.
For perspective, I might point out that some things have changed in the past 25 years. What we really don't know is whether or not people will lose confidence in the management of the monetary system because of the awful job that's been done over the most recent 25 year stretch.
They never fix the problems, and my suspicion is that they know how to fix them - they just don't want them fixed. I have zero confidence in the management team and the approach they've taken since the repeal of Glass Stegal in 1999. The Community Reinvestment Act in 1979 was bad enough, and now we've got obamacare unless it's repealed. And the kicker - is the baby boomers retirement, and all of its associated unfunded liabilities.
I didn't even mention the $Quadrillion+ in bad paper, because there's no way to know how it's going to come down. But when it does, it won't be beneficial to anyone who has to deal with it. Thanks Goldman and JPM - I hope the bonuses were worth it. Even if we didn't have all these daunting problems, I wouldn't trust Geithner any further than I could toss him with one arm.
What does all that mean? I think it means that they are going to be creating more money. I think it means that they are going to significantly devalue the dollar even more than it's already been devalued. And a significant devaluation would be the best outcome. If they screw up the timing, and if people lose confidence the way I have, it's not going to be pretty because the deflationary crash would make your head spin.
That's my opinion. MF Global has clearly shown us that the courts will protect the criminals and not the individual investors who thought that their segregated accounts were protected by business law. The GM bankruptcy has clearly shown that bondholders can't trust the legal system to enforce bankruptcy law. It's now public knowledge how high frequency trading is used to clean out positions by creating phantom trades that drive prices lower, to hit stop loss positions without cost to the manipulators. We've seen how Goldman Sach frontruns their own clients's trading.
My own personal problem is that I can't afford to "invest in America" by plunking money into a corrupt stock market and have it turn out horribly wrong. At least, if I have some physical precious metals as assets I won't have to stand around waiting to see if the bankruptcy judge will hand me back a mere pittance for all my trouble.
Go ahead. Buy that hot stock. Play that straddle. Make those hedge bets. I hope you win. >>
Bravo, jmski. Great post, great summary, hitting so many of the high (low) points of how far deep into the jungle we've ventured. Don't think Ben's helicopters will be of much use this far into our quasi-banana republic.
I'm amazed how far we've managed to kick this can. The power of the jawbone -- with an empty magazine --still manages to keep the masses in oblivion and calm (not to mention the seemingly endless unemployment benefits).
the investment of time in readings this message board has been one of the best investments in my portfolio (from here pointed to many other sources to check out).
And appreciate the point-counterpoint done with vigor and yet, civility here. Bravo again, and thanks to all regular posters.
It's just winding it's way down the mountain right now.
I'm looking very forward to a little side bet come 12-31-12, EH stamps, milk, wood?
Hope its just sideways - little bit boring...
<< <i>I think the steam is out of the silver train for a while. >>
sidelines. I still think silver
has a lot lower to go before
I jump in !!!
I'm wanting them to offer me a roll of eagles for $2-$3 over with spot this low, or a few sheets of bars or
even a fractional gold, but nobody is coming into pawn shop other then selling jewelry.
<< <i>I've always maintained that silver is a highly speculative metal and is not for the feint of heart.Owning and stacking silver takes stamina, stubbornness and a cast iron stomach. Silver is entry level/gateway metal and it many use it for a get rich quick scheme. Most buy and sell exactly at the wrong times. Lot's of novices in silver and novices panic in an already thin market which only adds fuel to the fire ... MJ >>
re: novices in silver, that is most likely true due to the very nature that silver will always be worth less than other PMs - which is also why it's such a great investment. Consider: (1) there will always be a larger middle-class than upper; (2) there will always be a larger population of collectors catering to middle-class buyers, than those catering to the wealthy; (3) silver has superb strike and eye-appeal that rivals platinum and palladium. Factor in silver's lesser comparative value = it will always retain a higher collectibility value than platinum and palladium.
Sure the latter metals will always be worth more per ounce, but how easy are they to sell on the market? Silver is and will always be extremely easy to unload no matter how bad the economy gets. I can not say the same for platinum and palladium. If the economy tanks, and belts are tightened, good luck turning a profit on your platinum proof sets.
If you buy silver strictly for investing that is one thing. But many collectors buy silver for its beauty. I will take a PRDCAM silver over any gold coin any day of the week. Silver, IMHO will always provide a great return.
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
<< <i>I'm cautiously waiting on the
sidelines. I still think silver
has a lot lower to go before
I jump in !!! >>
I totally agree. I see it as an inverse proportion to the economy. When finances tank metals rise. Now that finances are improving [slightly] the BV will drop.
Of course I could be totally wrong but that's been my experience
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
<< <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.
Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got? >>
The older I get, the more I realize gold and money aren't the most valuable things in life-- physical goods you can enjoy like cars or sailboats are.
<< <i>
<< <i>50 to 4. And held there for 20 years. Cant argue with history.
Gold is not money. Silver is not money, TIME is money. How much TIME you got? >>
The older I get, the more I realize gold and money aren't the most valuable things in life-- physical goods you can enjoy like cars or sailboats are. >>
Get a little older, you might change your mind again. Marriage, becoming a parent might do it. Finding meaningful work might do it. Helping make the world a better place in some small (or large) way might do it..
Time is essential, but what good is time, or money, without love, or a legacy?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Box of 20
"In a recession, cash is king. But as a currency deteriorates, gold is king. By their panicked misunderstanding of economics world leaders are threatening to create a world of crippled and shell shocked currencies. Investors should look progressively more towards precious metals as a possible safe haven."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I liked his concept of, 'instead of (cold) war, we have economic and monetary system collapse(s) looming.....'
--Geez, are they all unqualified, making the wrong decisions, or is this the best we can do?
John's a little wishy-washy in the last 3 paragraphs regarding investors, and is covering both bases:
Many buy precious metals. .....its likely that.....
short-term.. remains volatile..
metals 'may be' set up to rise..
..more towards precious metals as a 'possible' safe haven.