An example of why it is good to be cautious when collecting SC$'s.
keets
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The above listed auction is currently running at eBay and will close this morning. To me, it provides a good example why it is essential when collecting these medal to exercise caution and avoid the hype. Consider the description from the listing:
The total NGC pop in all grades is FIVE including this one, none other better than AU-58, and that number is unlikely to be increased anytime soon. Almost all others known are damaged and/or holed, and just finding one that will grade is almost impossible. For your consideration: HK-149 has a similar population and grade distribution, with four total NGC/PCGS (2-58, 1-61, 1-64PL), and an AU-58 is currently being offered on this venue at an eye-watering price (a bit silly perhaps, but it gives you pause in considering fundamental value). The famous HK-296 Wells Fargo medal has well over 120 at NGC/PCGS in Unc grades plus many others known in the original case left to grade - and they bring $1200 to $2000 all day long! I should also point out that the infamous 1909-S VDB Cent has a PCGS Pop of 1,300+ coins in MS-65RED and better; compare that to many of the rarest SCD. This remains one of the most undervalued areas in American Numismatics. As for this example, I really don't care if it sells immediately so the listed price, while it may seem "stupid" can be seen in the light that once sold, is irreplaceable unless lightning strikes again! Interested parties are free to contact me to discuss the matter, but be polite. Offers that I deem to be insulting will be ignored out of hand
I tend to be put off by hype that warns me about rarity and tries to compare apples and oranges. Experience has taught me that most SC$ prices are driven by interest and not availability. Further, I have found that for some of the higher R-6+ medals the best thing to do is excercise patience, they eventually show up.
Al H.
Comments
Let me say first, I know nothing about SCD's.... However, I find that asking price and the lengthy, rambling discourse to be ridiculous. Cheers, RickO
Nice one but at that price No way. But beautiful dollar.
my belief is that it is probably as rare as the seller hints it is, but there are almost certainly other MS examples still extant in collections. not everyone suffers as we do here, rushing to encapsulate or share publicly the Numismatic items they own. in the end things tend to surface so patience is an asset.
I would suppose there may be members here who have a raw example of this medal.
This seller has had some nice pieces of Bryan money in the past (and perhaps still does) and his/her prices seem to reflect the highest end of the market. For me, a 'red flag of hype' gets waived when the seller uses NGC/PCGS pop reports to declare rarity. Unlike highly-traded pieces, pop reports on exonumia provide very thin information, IMO.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
Nothing against the seller for looking to find the end of all end users. I guess at 10k they felt obligated to explain themselves.
Keets shrewd viewpoint would make sense for any coin purchase. It’s up to the buyer to decide if they want to buy whatever comes down the river or chase certain items, weight that against how much value is placed on cash and how much of it you have. Usually chasing coins means paying more but some folks don’t care, have a ton, or consider their time more precious.
In SCDs, as with other areas of the hobby I suppose, familiarizing oneself with the market at large is just as important as learning about the specific, individual medals that you're interested in. Some of the "ultra-rarities" (in this case a condition "rarity") very well may show up soon. Other rarities will likely not show up for a very long time. You need to know about the specific SCDs to determine if the one(s) your pursuing fall into the latter category, so that you can pull the trigger accordingly.
This seller is not afraid to list an item at a high price and sit on it for a long time. It's a strategy that must work for them.
Also - MS62? Really?
nice but not for the price for me. interesting post
First, yes, you can't compare rarity of an obscure, specialized item with a very limited market to widely desired items, like key date regular issue US coins-apples and oranges.
In my obscure, specialized area of obsolete currency, I like to say that the "collector is rarer than the rarity." It doesn't matter if only five of something are know and there are only two collectors, and they both have one already. That means that there are three too many.
Supply and demand works for rare items, too. Rare, but unpopular does not equal high price.
Giving the seller some credit, he says right upfront that the NGC population is 5. If you're willing to fork out $10K on a So-Called Dollar and you think that 5 is a low pop, well, I guess it's your money.
A population of 5 is about 50th percentile in terms of So-Called Dollar population at NGC. There are 700-800 SCDs with population of 5 or greater, out of about 1400 total.
I consider HK-410b to be R-6 myself. Certainly a nice piece, but it shows up often enough that I wouldn't stretch for one.
The listings with a pop of 1 or 2 get to be a lot more interesting. On the other hand, the last time i checked I had several dozen pieces with pops of zero at NGC. You can't trust the pops as the only measure of rarity.
to Jonathan's point, there are listings that 1st and 2nd Editions call R-3 to R-5 that I've never seen offered for sale. I know the medals exist because there are pictures in the catalogue. a few years ago I was working with Jeff Shevlin to try to find a few medals, my thinking was that if anyone would locate one it would be him. his reply was that he'd have to find two because even he didn't have an example in his collection.
with some medals we know how many were struck and have a good idea of how many exist. sometimes the estimates are an extrapolated "guess" that can be either high or low. I just keep looking.
FWIW I agree with that. In most cases there are good explanations. Several of the new listings in the 2nd edition fall into that category, where examples have been sold but not described as SCDs with their HK numbers. Others are design or composition variants of pieces where I don't trust that every seller has identified them correctly in the first place.
And yes, there are some rarities in the second edition that are simply wrong. Sorry! :-}
If it was not in 1st edition. I would have no interest.
Interesting post !!!
And yes, there are some rarities in the second edition that are simply wrong
no need for an apology there, you guys did a lot of great work in a brief time under some publisher imposed guidelines that didn't make it easier. I wish Tmot would post, he seems to have vanished. FWIW, thanks for your part in that project, it is a forum highlight, one of the more ambitious projects that took place here.