What does WAR really refer to?

lightningboy

Probably should be on Sports Talk forum, but I think this place gets more traffic. I am not really looking for all the various stats that go into a WAR number. My confusion stems from seeing someone like Trout, who is widely regarded as baseball's best, myself included, lead this category nearly every year, even though other players (Harper, Goldschmidt, Votto etc) have equally good numbers. When they talk about a "replacement player" are they specifically referring to who would replace him on the Angels? Or is the replacement player simply given set numbers to compare? If it is specifically referring to who Trout is playing ahead of, then I could see, in theory, how a good player on an otherwise poor team, could have the same WAR as a better player on a team with strong backups. I hope my question makes sense and someone can shed some light for me. thanks, Tom

Cory1976

I think it refers to the average AAA player projection as compared to the major league player (Trout in your example).

lightningboy

OK. Is that AAA player from the Angels' system and therefore a unique talent compared to another team's AAA player?

grote15

There's a thread on the Sports Talk forum discussing this very topic:

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/997964/i-really-dont-get-win-above-replacement-sometimes#latest

Cory1976

I think is a set number based on the position. A example would be like a center fielder from AAA is projected to hit .260 with 8 HR and 50 RBI. I just made these numbers up as a example. I'm sure you can find what the projected stats for all positions somewhere. It doesn't matter if a certain team has a great prospect it just a generic player that the WAR will be used to comapre with the MLB player.

Cory1976

I hope I'm explaining this correctly and this helps.

1951WheatiesPremium

WAR also attempts to include defensive ability and Mike Trout in addition to being a great hitter is an excellent defensive centerfielder.

Because he plays a premium position, too (CF), he can impact the game more than a 1B or RF or LF.

countdouglas

@1951WheatiesPremium said:
Mike Trout in addition to being a great hitter is an excellent defensive centerfielder.

Let me first add the disclaimer that I do not particularly believe all of the advanced defensive measuring stats that they use...

Having said that, if I'm not mistaken, it's been determined that there is a great misperception between the popular narrative and the actuality, and that we should actually rate Trout as really just an average defender. This is just a screen grab from an ESPN article from the spring. I've seen other articles referencing his "average" or "below average" defensive numbers, previously.

I'm sure, Mike Trout being MIKE! FREAKING! TROUT!, you can also find 10 times the articles saying how he catches everything hit within 120 feet of him, too.

When he makes his one annual trip to KC, I usually make a point to attend that series, and I've never been wowed by Trout's defense. But when you get spoiled watching Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and even Paulo Orlando during the overlap of Trout's career, I guess it's hard to be impressed by him defensively in such a small "live game" sample size.

lightningboy

Cory1976 - that is exactly the explanation that I was looking for. Thanks you, Tom

1951WheatiesPremium

@countdouglas

I don't watch the Angels enough to know but I know that many of these (defensive) metrics fail to capture everything that should go into the evaluation of a player. I know he's got a good arm, great speed, takes good routes to the ball and has made many a leaping play at the wall.

As for WAR, what goes into the formula can change depending on who is providing it.

countdouglas

I agree that the formulas used for defense are suspect, at best, and I don't watch the Angels much either. I just know that every discussion or article that mentions Trout actually being a subpar outfielder usually states that most of his defensive liability can be attributed to his comparably weak arm in relation to what's needed to play centerfield. He's apparently deficient in the ability to hold runners from going first to third or second to home. That's their position on it, not mine, per se. I just know the small sample size of 15 games or so that I've seen him play at Kauffman Stadium, while he's hit a few mammoth homeruns, I don't recall anything defensively that made me say "WOW!". I would personally tend to lean towards him being overrated, based on my own eye test, as far as his defensive prowess.

Cory1976

Glad I could help

mtcards

WAR? God God yall, what is it good for? Absolutely Nothing

Brick

Wasn't Warren Peace once a great QB?

miwlvrn

@BALROG said:
Brick, why are you bringing Warren Spahn in to this conversation ?

Well, if war is the topic, then I suppose Warren Spahn qualifies From Wikipedia: "Along with many other major leaguers, Spahn chose to enlist in the United States Army, after finishing the 1942 season in the minors. He served with distinction, and was awarded a Purple Heart. He saw action in the Battle of the Bulge and at the Ludendorff Bridge as a combat engineer, and was awarded a battlefield commission."