Low pop cards and forecasting prices
SpinFadeSplash23
Posts: 909 ✭✭✭
I know there are so many factors that go into valuing a card, that a simple exercise like this is bordering on useless. Here is the scenario:
Pop 71 - PSA 7 - $785
Pop 31 - PSA 8 - $1625
Pop 2 - PSA 8.5 - $3300
Pop 3 - PSA 9 - ??????
Pop 0 - PSA 10 - None exist
Assuming the PSA 9:
1) Has never come to public auction as far as my research can tell
2) Is a pretty desirable card on the PSA Registry for this particular set
What multiplier can you affix to pricing a PSA 9? If anyone can provide their thought process or analysis, I'd appreciate it. Thanks, Joe
Joe
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
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Comments
Good luck with that...assign your own value. It's worth what someone else is willing to pay; probably minimum 3x 8.5 value
Your 8 pretty much doubled in price with a .5 bump so I'd go with a full point bump selling at four times the 8's $1625
I'd say the 9's value is in the $6500-6600 range,maybe a bit higher depending on the player & card.
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
The other question would be is there a ten to give you an idea of ceiling? Or is there any tens?
I would say that based on how you described it, assuming the player is desirable, it's probably very close to a 10k card...
...especially if it hasn't been up before/recently.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Good point. No 10s exist. Thanks for all of your contributions.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
Looks pretty similar to the 86 Fleer MJ.
I’d say if it’s a Star RC because of being very rare would pass the MJ prices in a 9 and 10.
If its a insert or later produce card of a star your pool of bidders would be smaller and the price climbs could suffer imo
Seeing a 8.5 at $3,300 I’d take no less than 2x for sure.
I would love to see the card once you are ready to show it off. Does it have any chance at a bump? Is there a pop in any other company as high as the 9 and if so how many?
I have no idea on forecasting card prices but if I had to forecast a product I'd look for similar products in that scenario and see the price bumps per grade increase to come up with X. Could also use cards with 3 pop of PSA 10 as realistically any 9 you have will be priced like a 10 if none exist? That's the part where I don't know enough about card pricing yet but you can make a couple of assumptions there
What came to my mind was 1962 Topps Roger Maris #1 as there are few 9's and no 10's. The PSA 7's and 8's are in the same ballpark, though the only 8.5 sold for $7400 and 9's sell for around 20k.
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
Are you trying to put a BIN/BO on it? Obviously, like you said, this is an exercise in futility and it's even more so when we don't know what the card is but from what little you're telling us, I'd be looking to get the card in a high-profile auction like REA. No way I want to place a ceiling on a card like that. You said one has never come to auction and it's popular in the registry for the set? Auction all day, twice on Sunday.
Arthur
1951 Topps (#?2) PSA 9
$12,431.87
Multiply the PSA 8 value by 7.65038154
Or multiply the PSA 8.5 by 3.76723333
Fantasy price.
Would be very hard to estimate but in most cases if it’s a desirable set or RC it will likely sell at a much higher multiplier of the lower grades. Would have to be at least double the 8.5 but on the right day with the right buyers 5 times it wouldn’t be a surprise
Thank you so much for the comments. I am in awe of the knowledge on this board. I am looking to make an offer to the current owner and it helps to have a baseline to start negotiations. Once a purchase is made or not, I'll post the card. But with only a few choices in here, it should be easy to figure out... if one of you got it right
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
.
I actually have no guess. I would predict a basketball card rookie but the pop numbers are way too low for any major rookie cards.
Good luck on your quest!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies