Perspectives on 50's unopened product - Your thoughts?
MarsAttacks
Posts: 279 ✭✭✭
Hi everyone. Hope you're having an awesome weekend!
I've been thinking for a while about starting a 50's (Topps) graded unopened wax pack run, understanding that these items are incredibly rare and most in private collections that likely won't be seeing the auction block anytime soon. With that said, prices for packs that do make their way to market seem to be on a continued roll, with a couple packs (53 Baseball and 57 Basketball) in the Mile High action that ended Thursday furthering the trend of the record prices set in the Memory Lane sale last year.
Trying to time any market entry is typically a fruitless endeavor, but interested in perspectives from board members that have seen this activity unfold, both in the short, and long term. Do you think these prices the new norm, or anomalies that will find their way back to earth? Is it really possible that a 53 baseball or 57 basketball pack (as examples of a larger population of packs from that era), both tripling/quadrupling in sale prices from $5k 10 years ago, could feasibly do the same in the next 10 years? $75k seems like an awful lot for a 53 Topps baseball pack, but then, I'm sure $20k would have 10 years ago too! I suppose the same could be said for real estate in the city I call home, but that's a whole different ball of wax (no pun intended) 
Always appreciate the conversation here. Looking forward to seeing everyone in Cleveland!
Comments
I think Anthony aka Griffins may offer you a really good perspective on this Michael.
When I let a 52T pack pass by in the early 90s, that ship pretty much sailed for me.
Also, I can't remember if Al aka Bishop has an example of every Topps pack from the 50s with his sets?
Best of luck with your pursuit buddy and see you in Cleveland.
I admire your goal, but wax packs from the 50’s have gotten extremely difficult to find, either in auction or for sale. Several are available on eBay. That might get you started. Hope you pursue your goal.
A lottery win would help your endeavor.
LOL although that's likely the case, curious if the collective opinion of our board members here is whether the growth in value of 50's unopened products over the past 3 years is sustainable. Using the 1953 5 cent pack in PSA/GAI grade 5-6 as an example (since there are a few data points), it was available a few times between 2008-2013 for roughly $5k, then about a 4 year hiatus from public sales records to $15k in the Memory Lane sale last year, and $20k a few days ago in Mile High. Presumably, the pack hasn't gotten any rarer (unless someone opened one), so understanding this value acceleration is perplexing to me (and of course, bummed that I didn't buy the pack last year, thinking that was a price exception) - obviously not LOL
Thoughts from our resident unopened experts? Thanks!
The 53 wax pack was a beauty and much tougher to find vs the 52. Packs from the 50s and 60s with some exceptions are extremely tough to find, with a few being almost non-existent. A long time vintage unopened collector sold off his 50s/60s pack collection via Memory Lane about a year or so ago, which brought some product from those years to the marketplace, and prices realized reflected that pent up demand. I am finding that prices for unopened product continue to rise for the tougher years, primarily anything 1977 or earlier.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The question is if it will stay up for the next few years until some of us who are getting close to retiring and don't see much of a way to finish off their unopened collection due to the prices, decide to sell and enjoy some other endeavors instead.
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
Interesting perspective - Wondering if the 50's packs selling for record prices now are to people who've been at it for longer that are completing their runs, or to those starting them ("a changing of the guard")? One would think given the rarity and desirability of these packs, the market will absorb new offerings, since there's simply not enough supply to meet demand.
Speaking of supply - wondering how many authentic 5 cent Topps baseball packs for each year in the 50's are out there. Since there's no GAI pop report (it's coming out Monday I think
), I've done some Google completed auction and VCP searches to arrive at the following estimated unopened packs from each year still out there (excluding undiscovered treasure and a few examples that haven't been slabbed of course) -
1952 Topps - 30-40 (remember seeing pictures of bricks of unopened packs)
1953 Topps - 10-15 (no example higher than a PSA/GAI 6)
1954 Topps - 15-25 (between the 4 card and 6 card varieties)
1955 Topps - 20-30 (thinking Mr. Mint found a few boxes of these many years back)
1956 Topps - 5 -10 (maybe less)
1957 Topps - 30-40 (many high grade examples known)
1958 Topps - 10-20
1959 Topps - 20-30 (many high grade examples known)
Thoughts?
I would add that I have never seen a high end 1955 five cent pack. All the packs I have seen must have come from the Paris, TN find. And I agree that the 1952 pack may be the easiest to find. Would love to hear Steve Hart's opinion on his estimates of totals of packs still around.
I do think a buy and hold strategy (think actual collector, not flipper) where you are buying at good prices (not market tops) will always net a decent rate of return.
It seems more and more people are flipping cards these days which stinks for collectors; so many items are won and then listed a week later for double the price. It reminds me of the house flipping of the early 2000s. There is money to be made - lots of it, for sure - but at the end of the day there's going to be a lot of people left holding items they don't really want at prices they couldn't really afford in first place.
I have been a collector (rarely a seller) for 30 years. My governing principles have always been to buy what appeals to my eye, buy at a price where if you sold it tomorrow you'd get at least 90% back, stick to your theme (make sure you have one, however broad or narrow) and always remember that as long as there are at least two other people out there who want the card, there's always a market
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
There may be 10-20 1958 packs out there but I've only seen maybe 3 hit the market. There is a dealer who claims to have full boxes going back to the mid 50's with the exception of one year ('58?) that's half full. It may be a story but I don't think he'd have any motivation to lie to me. He was a pack seller back in the 90s and I bought my '59 cello from him. If there are a few people out there like that, there could be quite a bit more vintage unopened product than we think. On the other hand, super collectors like Steinbrenner have bought and devoured a lot of this stuff too. I know of one collector who cracked three first series 1961 baseball cello boxes back in the 90s.
Why not list an anonymous poll and maybe we can see what packs are being held by forum members.
Anthony has the full run, at least of nickel packs and most, if not all penny and special issue packs.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I"m missing one penny pack, from '61. Other than that I've got a full run. I"ve never seen a '61 penny pack and only recently have seen a wrapper. Al is missing a couple of nickel packs for this run I believe. The only other full run I know of was sold individually over the last 5 years.
Putting together one would be very, very difficult at this point, and certainly expensive.
'52 Topps nickel is easy, but expensive. They come up fairly regularly
'52 Topps penny is very difficult- I've only seen one in 18 years, and it's not going anywhere.
'53 Topps nickel is relatively easy due to the find, '53 penny is pretty tough
'54 Topps nickel is a bit tough, but due to the 5 boxes that turned up a few years ago the Canadian version (lighter green wrapper) is fairly easy (for the '50's). Again, the penny pack is pretty tough
'55 Nickel is easy, due to the Paris find. Not going to be pretty though. '55 penny is pretty easy as well.
'56 Nickel is pretty much impossible. I think your estimated number is waaaayyyy too high. I'd put it closer to 4-6. There are so many people looking for this pack that short of a full box it probably won't fill the demand. I think (hopefully someone will correct me) that the one in Memory Lane went for close to $60k, and one of the people that really needed this pack was out of the country at the time, so it probably would've gone a fair amount higher. '56 penny is fairly easy, but with some collectors accepting this in place of the nickel demand is probably a bit higher than normal.
'57 penny and nickel are easy.
'58 nickel is almost the same as '56. Again the guestimates of population are considerably higher than my experience. One of the high grade ones out there is a reseal that slipped thru. '58 penny is tricky as well, again probably on par with '56 penny.
'59 nickel seems like it should be easy for a variety of reasons, but like '61 it will surprise you how long it takes to track one down. I fully expect a find of a box or two to turn up at some point. As it is I'd put it behind '56 and '58 but probably tougher than the rest, with the possible exception of a US '54. The penny packs (there are 2 variations, batter and pitcher) are tough as well.
As far as future value, with cards I generally feel that past performance is no guarantee of future return, but I can't see them not going up. How much is anyones guess. I'm just hoping for a find of '41 Playball or '34 Diamond Stars.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
Thank you Anthony for your excellent post about these very rare wax packs. We all value your expertise in this area of collecting, as you may be the reigning expert. As you say, a number of these packs exist in higher quantities, but the problem is that no one is selling them. And other packs simply do not exist in any quantity at all. Hope that you eventually find your elusive 1961 one cent wax pack. And thanks again for sharing your expertise.
Paul, thank you for the kind words. I'm not sure I've earned them, but appreciate the sentiment.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's