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Aaron Judge 2018 Predictions on Avg/Homers and RBI's
Odessafile
Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
I'm going to go with .294 / 58 HR / 121 RBI..... I think without the shoulder injury from last years HOME RUN Derby he has an even better season in all three categories...I wouldn't be shocked with 60 plus taters. I think he strikes out 20-30 fewer times and gets the benefit of more low below his knee cap pitches called a ball UNLIKE last year. 1.100 OPS or better.
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Less than 300 at bats.
@Coinstartled ...u think he gets injured or sent down?
Gut feeling is injury. Big guy with a big swing.
.260 41HR 115RBI. I think the batting average could go lower.
I'm looking for a prop bet in Vegas, over/under on combined home runs from Judge/Stanton....and I'm going with the under.
I would not feel comfortable at all expecting a repeat from either of those players. Its hard to repeat career years, and Judge probably had one in his first full season. Stanton had one too, and it was also only the second time Stanton was able to get to 500 at bats in a season.
Far more risks than optimism for me.
@Skin2 ....I can see your point with Stanton...the adjusting of his stance was almost like a steroid effect...his homers went through the rooftop..... Judge, however, with 7 weeks of hell where he was lifeless ....hitting .190 with the bum shoulder he never conceded...I'd be a little more optimistic with Aaron...I just dont see
2 months this coming season like last year but we shall see. I think its a safe bet he stays away from the '18 HOME RUN DERBY...lets hope.
As far a prop bet whats the total? 87-90 total between them? Im guessing the line might come in at 45 dingers a piece.
Golden Nugget opened with the following prop bets:
Stanton/ Judge home runs 86.5
Stanton/Judge/Sanchez home runs 115.5
Stanton/Judge K's 335.5
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Justacommem's bunts.
33.5
Over. Way over
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
.271/ 42/ 131
140Ks
.301/62/150
His career average for strikeouts is .399, 250 K's in 626 at bats.
So I'm hoping he can crack the .400 mark for a full season,
I don't think its ever been done before.
So that's my prediction, a .400 strikeout average with
a .256 batting avg. 38 HR and 95 RBI's.
@Darin I sent PWCC a lovely '54 T BB Monte Irvin #3 PSA 9 for consignment this coming month...check it out.
.214/17/39
I love the 54 topps cards, they're like works of art. I'll definitely look at it, but I'm actually looking for
nice lower grade cards, so the PSA 9 is probably out of my price range. The only 54 graded card I have
so far is a 6.5 Ed Mathews, along with a raw Jackie Robinson.
I sent PWCC all my 1975 common PSA 9's and they'll be in their next auction, so good luck to both of
us on the sales!
WOW.....you must think he is going to miss most of the season.
.255/36/98
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 77.97% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.26% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
How many times have we seen it happen?
.276/36/100.
he will hit the mistakes, but his "holes" will be exploited now that every Team has lots of film on him. no prediction from me other than this season will go a long way to telling us how good he really is for the future.
I think he will get better calls low, improve his pitch recognition and discipline through hard work this offseason and Spring, and finish 2018 with 40 bombs or better and around a .275 average. Anything above that is gravy.
No man has ever started a career with 50, and back to back 50 HR seasons has been achieved only by Ruth (twice), Griffey, and McGwire/Sosa I believe (that’s off the cuff so forgive me if wrong).
So for a player to start a career with back to back 50-bomb seasons, that would be wild. Certainly I will be rooting hard for him to make that history, yet will be very happy with 40, which I think is the more realistic expectation given the protection he'll see in that lineup.
Some additional historical context: the record for most homers after three seasons is I believe 114 for Kiner and Pujols, so if Judge hits 35 in 2018 and 2019 he will break that record. Not a bad way for a slugger to come out the gate.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Nice card....
What a crisp picture. That has gotta be HD.
Not a bad card hanging out in the background, either— Heritage Red Ink!
Instagram: mattyc_collection
@keets .....Lotsa MLB players would love to have his .284 BA holes....:)
This guy will make Ruth look like slow fat man he was. Just like Mays and Mantle have already done.
Mantle is 3rd numbers wise to Ruth and Mays.....
The first numbers that popped into my head. .271/41/110. Expectations are so high. The line I posted would be a very good sophomore season.
Jeff
There is not a lot of Ruth's early years, only when he was at the end of his career. What would be the opinion of Mays if we only saw film of his last year?
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
@cecropiamoth ~Health is big for everyone but for the big guys in particular.....If Judge can just show up and be present 40 and 90-100 is a given....the problem is the shoulder...I've read Dr.'s concerns for his youth and the fact that they have ALREADY had to clean it out...his massive torque and pressure he puts on the left shoulder can really hamper him in the future... He obviously injured himself after the Derby last year..... The Yanks, even with Stanton, are no lock to beat an Astros team that played last year like Roger Federer plays tennis ....and they picked up another top caliber Cole Pitcher who could win 20 next year with that offense behind him....Id love to see the Yanks pick up Josh Harrison....that guy is an infectious winner and the Yanks could benefit with another scrappy BullDog to go along side Brett Gardner.
Brett Gardner’s big at bat last postseason fouling off like ten pitches was simply outstanding baseball. Love that dude.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Stanton and judge have eclipsed 40 homers only one time each in their career. Add the probable risk of injury that each has...I'm going under.
@Skin2 ~If they stay healthy Id go over 86.5.... thats the big unknown....One other factor Id share with you.....Stanton may be DH'ing quite a bit and maybe Judge as well though a bit less perhaps...........with the DH comes a bit more insulation to injury....just something to factor in with your "discretionary dough" ...best of luck to you on that.
The obvious way for Judge to improve is to cut down on his strikeouts -- he had 208 of them last year in 678 plate appearances, a 30.7 percent rate -- so what if he eliminates 25 strikeouts? That cuts his rate to 27.0 percent and results in 20 more balls in play (assuming the same walk rate). If he produces at the same rate on contact as in 2017, his batting line would improve to .290 with 55 home runs and a .639 slugging percentage. If he cuts his strikeout rate to 25 percent (170 strikeouts), he would improve to .293, .647 and 57 home runs.
Is that possible? Sure. George Springer struck out 33 percent of the time as a rookie, then dropped that to 24.2 percent his second season and all the way to 17.6 percent in 2017 -- cutting his strikeouts almost in half over three seasons.
Now, what’s even scarier is if Judge does better when he makes contact. He hit .461 when he didn’t strike out last season. Maybe 60 home runs are possible.
28 HR
87 RBI
.267 BA
With Stanton hitting after Judge ..Judge should be getting breastfed fastballs .... Judge's 128 runs scored last season is incredible. Ichiro's rookie season he hit .350 with 242 hits leading off and won ROY and MVP while scoring 127 runs.......
Lotsa MLB players would love to have his .284 BA holes
I don't know what the stats say, but I would be interested to know how often Judge's HR's came when the Yankees were trailing and how many came when they were leading. to me, that's the trouble with statistics and why fans who watch most games during the year have an insightful perspective. we see that kind of thing happening all the time, fans in general and members here who wait till the playoffs and then make pronouncements based on only what the statistics tell us.
for myself, the only real footage I saw of Judge aside from network highlights were games when he played against the Indians. he didn't impress me and had an abnormally high strike-out rate. he played better in the playoffs and really made a difference in the field, an area of his game which is often overlooked.
Judge
46 HR
131 RBI
.286 avg
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
just off those stats it should be clear to anyone that he needs to figure out his swing/strike zone to lower the K's. to my way of thinking that doesn't necessarily translate to more walks, he needs to figure out how to put the ball in play. if he does that I think good things will happen. at this point in his carreer he is probably as influenced by his HR total as we are, but if he can shorten his swing.....................if he were to have 1-2 more singles every week he would hit over .300, his RBI total would increase and he'd help his Team.
I'm old school. I appreciate stuff like hitting behind the runner and choking up with two strikes to use a shorter swing. Judge is so strong that even if he did those two things he would hit HR's. they just wouldn't be 450 feet, but a shot that travels 360 feet in most parks or a single would still keep things moving.
strike-outs are real rally killers.
@keetsvs. CLE 14 3 4 0 0 1 3 4 0 8 0 0 .286 .444 .500 .944
Here's his line vs. the Tribe last year....4/14 .286 with 1hr and 3 rbis with 4BB and 8k's........ He likely played in a 4 game series with 14 AB's plus 4BB ....maybe 5 games. IT strikes me when he was laboring Girardi may have pulled him against a Kluber start for obvious reasons. Sneaky thing about him is the .444 on base %...thats the walks which add so much productivity .... yes- he has to shrink the K rate down from over 30% this season to be a monster. Even in the playoffs last season his average was poor but he was productive with 11 RBI's in just a few more games than that. In a tight spot in game 7 of the W.S. I would still prefer an Altuve or Benintendi type for increased contact for sure...but Aaron is a work in progress and this season will tell us a bit more. He has plenty of "feast" in his game...just gotta cut back a bit on the "famine".
**Sneaky thing about him is the .444 on base %...thats the walks which add so much productivity .... **
it is really hard to gauge that productivity off the OBP and walks without knowing what the situations were. walks appear good but if they pass on him to retire the next batter for the third out it serves nothing. that's the thing for me about statistics over a long season and so many fans not watching many games. only viewing highlights and seeing stats can distort real output.
a more helpful statistic would show runs scored off his walks or something to quantify them besides just raising his OBP.
One of Buster Olney's "Bet the Family Farm Predictions" for 2018 among others :
I’d bet the family farm that: Aaron Judge will improve. The other day, Boone was asked which player he has learned the most about that he didn’t know before, and he responded without hesitation: Judge. What Boone has learned, he said, is that beneath Judge’s polite and respectful personality, the slugger is relentlessly competitive. “He wants to tear your heart out,” Boone said. Judge’s understanding of the strike zone is so good that even in a bad year, he could post an on-base percentage of .360 to .375.
.281ba 42hrs 107rbi 185 strike outs
Less than .294/58/121 in all 3 categories.
Those predictions Larry, are from 2.3 months ago....my new ones~ .311 63/ 138....I got the inside scoop.
.243
44 hr
107 RBI
212 Ks
Erik
With an OBP of .422 a .243 average is ludicrous..he is too good a student, way too driven ... he's going to improve from last year.... he had 9 weeks of post HR Derby injury.... we shall see and Ill likely eat a lot of crow if he regresses.
banned?
Good catch. Maybe he posts on another forum. His posts here were rather benign and innocuous. You and I are the spawn of satan in comparison
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I guess , posting baseball stats is a bannable offense now , I mean its annoying but that seems a bit harsh
folks just to be on the safe side , don't use the following text in a post
OPS , win shares , hall of fame , Jim Rice , Pete Rose ,
Spawn of satin ? Maybe you , but I like to think of myself as the spawn of suede
Ha! Sultan of Suede
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......