2000 SP Authentic Boxes and Brady’s

PmanFL

So I noticed lately a bunch of sealed boxes and cases on eBay. So I got curious....could you pull a Brady. Well...I have come to the conclusion through some research that it is highly improbable. There were 1250 total cards, 514 graded PSA and over 700 (don’t have actual number) I was told have been graded by BGS. Leaves less than 40 unaccounted for, at an average of 1 Rookie per box and approximately 60 rookie cards that year I believe. I think i will take a chance on the $1 lotto and not a $1500
Box. Please correct me if i have any of the data incorrect. Thanks. Pman

bcubs

What we don’t know is how many of those were cracked and resubmitted. I’m sure far less unique cards have been graded than what you list as graded totals. Having said that, I wouldn’t take the chance either.

initialD

I can personally account for a BGS crackout to PSA conversion that's uncorrected in the population. Who knows how far off the actual count is.
I got tired of chasing it through packs, never a box though.
Hard call, as the card now is about quadruple the box price. You would still need major luck to pull one out of say 4 boxes

seebelow

but just separately in regards to the total population of rookies, those which are signed, how many per box (low, low) etc in general and not accounting for crack outs etc, that you're still correct in that it is highly improbable. i thought about it months ago and did the math and its not even close. Basically a lotto ticket. But its gonna cost you just a bit more than a single dollar for a box. Then roll the dice.

rexvos

1 RC per box. Better off just buying one. I opened 4 boxes in 2000. Plaxico was the best RC I pulled

dtkk49a

I am sure some of those Brady's have been subbed multiple times.

I bought Brady's 2000 Bowman Chrome RC Refractor in 2000. I think I paid between $50 and $75 for it !! It has come back an 8 twice so far. I think it belongs in a 9 holder. But now it will cost me big bucks to try again.

Back then I used to try to get the best rookie cards of all the QB's drafted every year. Some great hits and some huge misses....

erikthredd

BGS Pop Report has 901 graded Brady 2000 SP Authentic rookies. Like someone mentions above,there has to be a TON of crackouts because the numbers don't add up. Here's a screenshot of the BGS Pop page for this Brady rc.

rexvos

The 2000 SP Authentic Brady vexed me for a long time. I always put off buying it. Right before the start of last season I finally took it down. It was worth every penny.

PmanFL

@erikthredd said:
BGS Pop Report has 901 graded Brady 2000 SP Authentic rookies. Like someone mentions above,there has to be a TON of crackouts because the numbers don't add up. Here's a screenshot of the BGS Pop page for this Brady rc.

Thanks. I couldn’t access that. I forgot about crackouts.

erikthredd

@PmanFL said:

@erikthredd said:
BGS Pop Report has 901 graded Brady 2000 SP Authentic rookies. Like someone mentions above,there has to be a TON of crackouts because the numbers don't add up. Here's a screenshot of the BGS Pop page for this Brady rc.

Thanks. I couldn’t access that. I forgot about crackouts.

I think you have to make an account with Beckett's website to access their Pop report. It makes me sign in before i can use it. Give it a try,its free.

PmanFL

This listed this morning at $20k and already sold to high offer.

PmanFL

Pic didn’t post. Listed at $20k, sold for $15,500

VitoCo1972

Jeez, am I the only one that mails in my cracked out flips? I do it twice/year. I guess I'll never know if they actually take them out of the pop reports though.

fergie23

The move in the 2000 Bowman Chrome refractor and Contenders auto RC for Brady has been ridiculous the last few years.

I bought my PSA 9 Bowman Chrome Refractor for $381.09 in April 2011, one sold for $11,400 last night. I bought my PSA 9 Contenders auto for $1425 in November 2011. A PSA 8.5 sold for $22,995 at BIN yesterday and another for $16,100 at auction in December. If only I had known, I would have stocked up on those cards rather than trying to get one of each of his rookies numbered 50 or higher.

As for the 2000 SP Auth box that is a losing proposition. While the pop reports in Beckett and PSA are wildly off the odds of pulling a Brady are so slim based on distribution it doesn't make any sense to open a box. I've opened plenty of 2000 FB boxes (SP, Contenders, Bowman Chrome, SPX, etc) and never pulled a limited Brady rookie. I've pulled some Pacific, Bowman, Press Pass regular rookies but never anything numbered or auto-ed. I realized you are just better off buying the card directly which is true for pretty much everything mid-90s and later. Not as much fun but neither is $1k in boxes and $10 in cards to show for it with RC inserts of total nobodies.

For the most part I buy a couple packs (box breaks here or packed out by BBCE) to get my fix now rather than entire boxes.

Robb

dtkk49a

Actually went to the bank today just to make sure I still had this card. Does anyone know if this card is rarer than his 2000 Bowman Chrome Refractor?

Dpeck100

@VitoCo1972 said:
Jeez, am I the only one that mails in my cracked out flips? I do it twice/year. I guess I'll never know if they actually take them out of the pop reports though.

Next time you do write down a few of the numbers and then go to the cert check feature and see if they still exist a few months later. Let us know what you find out.

Brian48

I haven't collected in several years now, but while I was still in the hobby, I used to crack and resub all the time. I know for sure the Pop report over at both BGS and PSA are really off. It's too bad both company never instigated a policy to also log the number of #'d cards as well. It would help track a lot of these modern cards much better. Oh well, I guess that horse has left the barn a long time ago.

natsturner

How many RC's were in the set?

BeRoyalKC

So what I've waited for and never seen but unless you got paid why would you. A sight that tracks the cards that have been pulled. The card is serial #'s to 1250. Now the grading thing we can't track crack and resubs but over the years you can track ebay, or other photos of what serial # you have seen in the market place. Of course it would never be accurate because of private sales etc, but really nowadays some of these super high priced cards are #'d to 100 or less. Those are a bit easier to track. That would definitely add some value to unopened. Think about some of the precious metal cards out there etc. What if you could track a product and show there are 20 PMG Jordan's left out there in XXX boxes. Might make those boxes shoot up even more. A huge undertaking though trying to track that stuff.

UFFDAH

A PSA 9 Contender on auction...wowza!!