NGC and PCGS price guide values
ranger1202
Posts: 68 ✭✭✭
I'm new to coin collecting and only buy slabbed coins to protect myself. But, I would like to know how accurate the "price guide value" is so I don't overpay for a coin? I'm sure it varies from coin to coin so i'm asking in general. Have you ever paid more than the price guide value? Is it ALWAYS less? If so, how by how much? Thanks.
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For certain series, both price guides are way under value for most of the coins in the series. For many series, both price guides are for full retail. You have to do your homework (by checking auction results) to find out what's reasonable price to pay.
What sites are best for checking auction results?
I would start with Heritage.
I use coinfacts to look up the coin, click on price/pop, that shows an estimated retail, but better yet...click on the coins grade and it will show some recent auctions. Welcome to the board!
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Just check out greysheet.com
I use the TPG PG in pricing respective NGC or Pcgs coins - Goal is get somewhere between cost and retail.....
Not a bidder / buyer unless get deal at 87 pct cdn bid or less due to current market conditions. On mods most I offer is 60 pvt mv. Have bought many off bay or from walk ups st shows.
I use the respective inventory managers for my Pcgs / NGC coins (for easy Acctg) and Anacs / ICG just plug in CW or CU in my spreadsheet. However the retail code on each coin based on my view of multiple sources.
Due to buying a large CSA / Obsolete deal from dealer setup next to me going to finally submit to PCGS currency on these. Many World issues will be sent in as well due to fact WPM Market sizzling.
Maybe I'll take flack for this, but I see the price guide (PCGS or NGC) generally as an over-estimate of the price. They have incentive to make their price guide as high as they reasonably can.
Sure for a truly exceptional coin, the price guide may be too low. And maybe for a few dates/series. But I think the general rule is that the price guide is an over-estimate.
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No idea on the NGC guide but the PCGS guide WAY overvalues Morgan Dollars. Typically 25-40% over what I am willing to pay.
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If we were all the same, the world would be an incredibly boring place.
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If I had to generalize, price guides are full retail or higher for widgets (which I define as coins you could--right now--buy fifty examples of on eBay if you had the inclination). On the other hand, price guides tend to be low (sometimes way low) on rarer coins or not-so-rare coins with certain characteristics (original, crusty toning, eye-appealing color, etc.).
You want to know the value of a coin all you have to do is a simple “sold” items search. I have found it to the most reliable price guide.
Generally they are higher for coins that can be acquired very easily. That being said a real nice example of a very low pop coin will often go well above a posted price. If you look through some of the coins that are low pop you can see how buyers don't put much emphasis on price guides.
A good example. There are two $20 1856 O coins up for auction. On is an AU 50 and the other a XF 40. The 40 has much better eye appeal and has not been beat up as bad as the higher grade coin. As I type the XF coin is at 180K and the AU 50 at 150K. Both will go higher and these numbers do not include the 20% buyers premium.
I doubt I will be a Heritage client but their site is a great way to get an idea of what a coin should cost. I should also say some auctions don't go well and some nice coins are bought cheap.
So much for the holder or price guides being something to always rely on.
mvs7 has a good response I/M/O and these two coins I made reference to validate it.
Eye appeal is a very critical factor from a value and liquidity standpoint.
If you can find the coin on ebay you will know price guide price is way over value but if you can’t find the coin on eBay you know the price might be under value
...”your only as good as your last envelope.”
Hashtag CoinFacts
PCGS and NGC price guides are like a broken clock, right twice a day.
Most accurate (and current) info is Grey Sheet. Heritage (and other big auction houses) prices don't factor in the 17 1/2 % to 20 % juice plus shipping and handling fees. Those are huge factors on some coins sold by them that change the math.
In my opinion on common coins, E-Bay (sold listings) are "usually" legitimate for the date of the sale unless the coin was bought by a shill of the seller. If there are multiple sold items at a certain price point you have a winner.
If it is on E BAY there is a reason for it and its almost always a bad one. I see it as a dumping ground for generic and problem coins.
Wow! Wordless
I had a hard time keeping my finger of the disagree button when you said greysheet! Bring me your nice semi key original Barber Half's in F-AU and sell them to me some where around or above greysheet!
Although this might be true for some sellers, and the same can even be said of the larger auctions like at Heritage, personally I have found lots of good stuff on eBay over the past 17 years or so.
The way I see it there are 'Collectors' and there are 'collectors'. The latter being the type that enjoys the hobby and is satisfied with collecting coins that are affordable and available. Ebay is the perfect forum for this type of collector. The more serious 'Collector' has to be more careful with who and where they purchase coins because the price point they are working with is totally different than then average 'collector'.
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Over 1 Million Coins are on Ebay right now. That's a lot of Bad Coins that are getting Dumped.
Ken
There ARE a lot of bad coins getting dumped on eBay, that said there's plenty of nice stuff too. I'd pay a good price for an AI-based garbage filter that I could just "talk" to for half an hour and have it filter eBay. My searches would be much shorter.
O> @DollarAfterDollar said:
This is incorrect. Heritage, Stacks, and Legend all include the BP when stating realized prices. The same is true of CoinFacts when you look at prices there.
They do not, and should not, include shipping or any applicable state taxes. Those are not relevant to the listed sale price and are unknown by the auction house anyway (since lots are often combined).
Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. I like to look at the sold auctions on the coin facts site. Here is the price guide for a 1921 Peace Dollar in MS64. I always like to watch these coins sell for more than the price guide consistently.
I assumed we then have to add 20% BP on top if it to get a true market value?
No!! This is why it is important to correct misinformation. You will notice that all of those HA and SB numbers nicely divide by 1.2. The BP is included in the sales result.
Collector coins are not commodities. Each has its own characteristics which might appeal to some and repulse others.
The various lists and tables mentioned are all biased guidance, and should be used as general indicators of market value. (The bias is not usually intentional . It comes from data selection and whatever analysis is performed on the these data.)
There is no simple answer to this question. I think price guides were more useful before there was such a great price disparity between problem, average, and exceptional coins of the same grade. For scare or rare coins, there can easily be a 2x or even a 5x price difference between problem and exceptional coins of the same grade. So for a given coin, a single price guide value may be high or low. I would suggest looking at the Coin Facts and eBay prices realized for the coins you are interested in, and that will give you a good idea of the range in which these coins typically sell.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
David, I think you're missing my point. If a coin sells at Heritage for say $500, the buyer then needs to add the buyers premium to the purchase. Heritage will list the sales price at $600 but..............as a consumer trying to determine a coin's true value I don't know how much (if any) of that (and other) additional expenses were factored into that sale. That's something only that buyer could determine.
It's entirely possible that the purchase of a similar coin, same date, grade,etc. might actually be a better buy through a Dealer where there is no buyers premium involved at all.
Auction prices are simply a piece of information, not the whole story and certainly not the final word on setting prices.
If you are trying to determine the value of a coin, then the sale price is what you want. If you are interested in how much you can net as a seller, then absolutely you need to subtract the BP. As a buyer, it doesn't matter whether you pay $660 to Heritage on a $600 bid or $660 to a dealer.
Auction Prices Realized
https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices
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I usually pay about 30% less then list or even half on all modern silver. I will shell out more for a coin if I like the coin and it is desirable.
Best place to buy !
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Welcome to the forum, now I must get back to removing the snow
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Bad transactions with : nobody to date
For certain types of coins I use the 65% formula.
this has proven to be correct when I needed to come up with a price.
The operative word in price guides is 'guides'...then information must be supplemented by auction research and even further sometimes (i.e. websites, shops). You can then determine a reasonable range for the coin you are contemplating. Combine that with your available cash resource and you can make a walk/buy decision. Cheers, RickO