Armstrong on bitcoin
oldstandard
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I am not sure if anyone here reads Armsstrongs blog but here is a good read. His story is amazing prison for seven years because he would not cave to the government and IRS that is a man of the past. I read he was in salintary confinement next to the worst of the worst for civil arrest just because he would not do want they wanted which was illeagel in the fist place but when they deem it legal it's legal, Anyway bitcoin will not escape a leash on its freedom. All markets go and then down nothing ever goes just up, gold up 2008 to 2011 then down 2011 to present bitcoin will do the say enjoy the ride and take advantage of silver and gold over the next 5 years.
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"salintary confinement" ... is that where you are denied salt? Cuz that would be pretty harsh.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
Many are jumping on the bandwagon of bitcoin - and the other crypto-currencies. Much like when PM's rise, a buying frenzy ensues.....always the reverse of what should happen.... I have no ability to predict the future, but I am sure that bitcoin will make money for some and at a future time, lose a lot of money for many. Cheers, RickO
"... but I am sure that bitcoin will make money for some and at a future time, lose a lot of money for many. Cheers, RickO"
Believe me, I am not trying to cause a problem but how can you be sure of this?
He is just saying people will go in at the wrong time and lose money as people did with gold in 2011
Because it's essentially a pyramid scheme.
Any investment has risk/reward ratio. For those who invested in bit coin last year, or even 6 months ago, they've made quite a windfall. I remember when silver was $50 an ounce about 6 years ago. What is it now? No risk, no reward. but nothing is guaranteed in any sector.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I see. A very general and obvious statement like "the sun will come up tomorrow and go down tomorrow night". Pretty much true of any risk/reward scenario. I thought maybe a reference to the statement posted was available. Thanks.
Futures markets were created and designed to protect producers and buyers from price volatility. Adding bitcoin to a futures serves only to centralize speculation. Financial opponents of an alternative form of money (as with gold) will have a tool to regulate price. Throw in the upcoming bitcoin ETFs and we will have a scenario, as with gold and silver, where the futures and ETFs can work in tandem to hold price down.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?
As derryb points out above, financial opponents of an alternative form of money will have a tool to regulate price. From your comment, do you mean to say that the equity markets are the financial advocates for alternative forms of money?
Please help me out here.
I knew it would happen.
I'm saying that futures markets and derivative ETFs, where supply is unlimited and does not affect price, can be used to push price in either direction. Speculation drives these type markets, not fundamentals.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
No, that is where you are forced to work in the salt mines in Siberia!
I guess that gets us back to "what is money"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I glad you clarified by saying "either direction".
Can there be speculation based on fundamentals, or are the two mutually exclusive?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So what's wrong with that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
it creates tulip bubbles
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So what's wrong with that?
It depends on who is manipulating the price action in a given market, doesn't it?
I knew it would happen.
It's an old saw that " you can't cheat an honest man." Now, it's obviously not technically nor universally true, however i can't help but think about it in relation to bitcoin etc.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
And what's wrong with that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?
No, I'm agreeing with derryb that speculating without any basis in fundamentals simply doesn't make sense and further, that fundamentals left our markets when the Fed started buying the banking system's bad debt with taxpayer-backed securities and then compounded the situation by expanding their own balance sheet to buy securities on the open market in order to manipulate real estate and stock prices. Aside from being corrupt and immoral, it's just plain stupid.
Do I have it wrong? If so, please advise.
I knew it would happen.
Agree, and clarify that there are degrees of "speculating " and if you can jingle the sparkly, or walk the trees, or tour the factory & the delivery outgoingand see and cssh the checks incoming, it ain't quite as risky as a "unique" string of characters
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Once a business becomes viable, it does take on a life of its own, and to a great extent, the rest is simply good execution. I can agree on that point.
I knew it would happen.
bubbles are normally followed by economic recessions. The old Boom/Bust cycle.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Speculating doesnt need to makes sense, at least not to the non-speculator. Speculation is all relative. Are you not speculating on that lot you bought? You may believe the land has fundamental value, but im sure the guy who gold at 1900 had fundamental value, just as the guy who bought bitcoin at 19,000.
I vehemently disagree that real estate and equities are only higher than 6 years ago because of Fed buying. Im not, nor have I ever, condoned the Feds actions, as my previous comments on this matter are forever immortalized in this forum if youd like confirmation, but I do not agree with your assertion.
Fact is, relative value was abundant 6 years ago and our debates over these years have been largely on "fundamentals". Our views of fundamentals and relative values have been quite different, an due to changing valuations, those views will constantly change. Perhaps I see relative values in other areas now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And whats wrong with that?
I havent been trying to be a smartass, but seriously, this is how economics works. Understand it, embrace it, profit from it. There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation or bubbles. Its how a free economy operates. Destroy that, and you have what you least want.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So, where did all that trillions in liquidity that the FED created go?
Hint: It fueled asset speculation and stock buybacks that have created new bubbles. Now we await the cost of artificially induced bubbles - economic recession. The economic expansion and contraction that occurs repeatedly with the boom/bust cycle creates instability that affects most of the population. A reasonable person wants financial stability.
A natural occuring boom phase normally accompanies a bull market, rising housing prices, wage growth and low unemployment. It doesn't end unless the economy is allowed to overheat. When the FED creates the boom with liquidity or forces the economy to overheat it is creating a much harsher bust with a much loader bang. It causes misdirection of financial resources that would normally result in productivity, employment and financial stability - things that a reasonable person most wants to see.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That's where you are left alone in a salt mine.
derryb, we've reached a "permanent plateau" now. Where have I heard that one before?
havent been trying to be a smartass, but seriously, this is how economics works. Understand it, embrace it, profit from it. There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation or bubbles. Its how a free economy operates. Destroy that, and you have what you least want.
You've made my point. Fed manipulation keeps attempting to regulate the economic cycle and in so doing, they prevent the economy from regulating itself, i.e. the cure for high prices - is high prices. Where have I heard that before? Isn't that what you've always said? So, it's already not a free economy and we are no better off because of it.
As derryb points out, this type of Fed interference only causes a bigger blowup when the blowup finally happens. - i.e., more people get affected, and in the worst kinds of ways. The last thing this economy needs is a meltdown magnified even more by a Fed that can't keep it's hands off the debt machine being used primarily to reward their cronies with tax money. I already see too many dis-incentivized people standing on intersections asking for handouts - we don't need any more.
I knew it would happen.
Was there an economy before the FED was even created? Were there boom and bust cycles before the creation of the FED? What was the magnitude of those cycles?
We have an incredibly stable economy today. I really should buy you guys a good book about the US economy during the 1800s for Christmas. The FED just supplies tools. It's up to the people to use those tools. To put it into terms that most on this forum should understand....do you blame the gun manufacturer or the person pulling the trigger.
This is so much easier to understand when you free your mind of conspiracy and manipulation theories.
Jmski...it's not the FED on the debt machine, it's your elected officials.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Siberia didn't the phone app launch today from Barbados? Because they said our congressmen are all crooks. IDK sound fishy to me
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I remember that song: "Tulip bubbles, in the wine......."
it's not the FED on the debt machine, it's your elected officials.
One hand washes the other. The Fed controls rates via the issuance of more debt; Congress authorizes a new debt ceiling in an ongoing sham operation. No accountability, no control. At least the NY Fed makes a nice commission on the sale of Treasuries tho'. It's called "banking".
I knew it would happen.
Markets dictate rates. Politicians dictate how your money is allocated. The FED merely provides the tools.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fixed it for ya:
Markets dictate rates based on FED funds rate, just as markets dictate gold price based on manipulative futures contracts.
Politicians dictate how much you pay in taxes and are manipulated into who receives it.
FED provides the tools to enable politicians, a whole lot of new money being one of them. FED is a tool of the politicians.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Markets dictate rates. Politicians dictate how your money is allocated. The FED merely provides the tools.
OMG, you really think that the Fed's discount rate has nothing to do with how rates are established? Of course the market can run contrary to the Fed's decision, but don't try to tell me that the Fed doesn't establish the rates and that the member banks aren't the main beneficiaries every time rates are changed.
I knew it would happen.
That's not what I wrote jmski. But think of the FED as the dog and the markets as the tail. I think you know the saying.
Merry Christmas y'all.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear