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Armstrong on bitcoin

I am not sure if anyone here reads Armsstrongs blog but here is a good read. His story is amazing prison for seven years because he would not cave to the government and IRS that is a man of the past. I read he was in salintary confinement next to the worst of the worst for civil arrest just because he would not do want they wanted which was illeagel in the fist place but when they deem it legal it's legal, Anyway bitcoin will not escape a leash on its freedom. All markets go and then down nothing ever goes just up, gold up 2008 to 2011 then down 2011 to present bitcoin will do the say enjoy the ride and take advantage of silver and gold over the next 5 years.

[https://armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-being-declared-a-financial-institution-beware]

Comments

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Many are jumping on the bandwagon of bitcoin - and the other crypto-currencies. Much like when PM's rise, a buying frenzy ensues.....always the reverse of what should happen.... I have no ability to predict the future, but I am sure that bitcoin will make money for some and at a future time, lose a lot of money for many. Cheers, RickO

  • 59Horsehide59Horsehide Posts: 427 ✭✭✭

    "... but I am sure that bitcoin will make money for some and at a future time, lose a lot of money for many. Cheers, RickO"

    Believe me, I am not trying to cause a problem but how can you be sure of this?

  • oldstandardoldstandard Posts: 387 ✭✭✭

    He is just saying people will go in at the wrong time and lose money as people did with gold in 2011

  • ChrisRxChrisRx Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭✭

    @59Horsehide said:
    "... but I am sure that bitcoin will make money for some and at a future time, lose a lot of money for many. Cheers, RickO"

    Believe me, I am not trying to cause a problem but how can you be sure of this?

    Because it's essentially a pyramid scheme.

    image
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,690 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Any investment has risk/reward ratio. For those who invested in bit coin last year, or even 6 months ago, they've made quite a windfall. I remember when silver was $50 an ounce about 6 years ago. What is it now? No risk, no reward. but nothing is guaranteed in any sector.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • 59Horsehide59Horsehide Posts: 427 ✭✭✭

    @oldstandard said:
    He is just saying people will go in at the wrong time and lose money as people did with gold in 2011

    I see. A very general and obvious statement like "the sun will come up tomorrow and go down tomorrow night". Pretty much true of any risk/reward scenario. I thought maybe a reference to the statement posted was available. Thanks.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Futures markets were created and designed to protect producers and buyers from price volatility. Adding bitcoin to a futures serves only to centralize speculation. Financial opponents of an alternative form of money (as with gold) will have a tool to regulate price. Throw in the upcoming bitcoin ETFs and we will have a scenario, as with gold and silver, where the futures and ETFs can work in tandem to hold price down.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?

    As derryb points out above, financial opponents of an alternative form of money will have a tool to regulate price. From your comment, do you mean to say that the equity markets are the financial advocates for alternative forms of money?

    Please help me out here.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?

    I'm saying that futures markets and derivative ETFs, where supply is unlimited and does not affect price, can be used to push price in either direction. Speculation drives these type markets, not fundamentals.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @astrorat said:
    "salintary confinement" ... is that where you are denied salt? Cuz that would be pretty harsh. ;)

    No, that is where you are forced to work in the salt mines in Siberia!

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?

    As derryb points out above, financial opponents of an alternative form of money will have a tool to regulate price. From your comment, do you mean to say that the equity markets are the financial advocates for alternative forms of money?

    Please help me out here.

    I guess that gets us back to "what is money"?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Since there is an active futures market and ETFS on stocks, you're saying the equity markets are being kept down and should be much higher?

    I'm saying that futures markets and derivative ETFs, where supply is unlimited and does not affect price, can be used to push price in either direction. Speculation drives these type markets, not fundamentals.

    I glad you clarified by saying "either direction".

    Can there be speculation based on fundamentals, or are the two mutually exclusive?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2017 8:53AM

    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    it creates tulip bubbles

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So what's wrong with that?

    It depends on who is manipulating the price action in a given market, doesn't it?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's an old saw that " you can't cheat an honest man." Now, it's obviously not technically nor universally true, however i can't help but think about it in relation to bitcoin etc.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    it creates tulip bubbles

    And what's wrong with that?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    So what's wrong with that?

    It depends on who is manipulating the price action in a given market, doesn't it?

    Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2017 4:09PM

    Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?

    No, I'm agreeing with derryb that speculating without any basis in fundamentals simply doesn't make sense and further, that fundamentals left our markets when the Fed started buying the banking system's bad debt with taxpayer-backed securities and then compounded the situation by expanding their own balance sheet to buy securities on the open market in order to manipulate real estate and stock prices. Aside from being corrupt and immoral, it's just plain stupid.

    Do I have it wrong? If so, please advise.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?

    No, I'm agreeing with derryb that speculating without any basis in fundamentals simply doesn't make sense and further, that fundamentals left our markets when the Fed started buying the banking system's bad debt with taxpayer-backed securities and then compounded the situation by expanding their own balance sheet to buy securities on the open market in order to manipulate real estate and stock prices. Aside from being corrupt and immoral, it's just plain stupid.

    Do I have it wrong? If so, please advise.

    Agree, and clarify that there are degrees of "speculating " and if you can jingle the sparkly, or walk the trees, or tour the factory & the delivery outgoingand see and cssh the checks incoming, it ain't quite as risky as a "unique" string of characters

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Once a business becomes viable, it does take on a life of its own, and to a great extent, the rest is simply good execution. I can agree on that point.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    it creates tulip bubbles

    And what's wrong with that?

    bubbles are normally followed by economic recessions. The old Boom/Bust cycle.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Are you saying that speculating is manipulating?

    No, I'm agreeing with derryb that speculating without any basis in fundamentals simply doesn't make sense and further, that fundamentals left our markets when the Fed started buying the banking system's bad debt with taxpayer-backed securities and then compounded the situation by expanding their own balance sheet to buy securities on the open market in order to manipulate real estate and stock prices. Aside from being corrupt and immoral, it's just plain stupid.

    Do I have it wrong? If so, please advise.

    Speculating doesnt need to makes sense, at least not to the non-speculator. Speculation is all relative. Are you not speculating on that lot you bought? You may believe the land has fundamental value, but im sure the guy who gold at 1900 had fundamental value, just as the guy who bought bitcoin at 19,000.

    I vehemently disagree that real estate and equities are only higher than 6 years ago because of Fed buying. Im not, nor have I ever, condoned the Feds actions, as my previous comments on this matter are forever immortalized in this forum if youd like confirmation, but I do not agree with your assertion.

    Fact is, relative value was abundant 6 years ago and our debates over these years have been largely on "fundamentals". Our views of fundamentals and relative values have been quite different, an due to changing valuations, those views will constantly change. Perhaps I see relative values in other areas now. ;):)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    it creates tulip bubbles

    And what's wrong with that?

    bubbles are normally followed by economic recessions. The old Boom/Bust cycle.

    And whats wrong with that?

    I havent been trying to be a smartass, but seriously, this is how economics works. Understand it, embrace it, profit from it. There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation or bubbles. Its how a free economy operates. Destroy that, and you have what you least want.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2017 6:17PM

    @cohodk said:

    I vehemently disagree that real estate and equities are only higher than 6 years ago because of Fed buying.

    So, where did all that trillions in liquidity that the FED created go?

    Hint: It fueled asset speculation and stock buybacks that have created new bubbles. Now we await the cost of artificially induced bubbles - economic recession. The economic expansion and contraction that occurs repeatedly with the boom/bust cycle creates instability that affects most of the population. A reasonable person wants financial stability.

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation or bubbles. Its how a free economy operates. Destroy that, and you have what you least want.

    A natural occuring boom phase normally accompanies a bull market, rising housing prices, wage growth and low unemployment. It doesn't end unless the economy is allowed to overheat. When the FED creates the boom with liquidity or forces the economy to overheat it is creating a much harsher bust with a much loader bang. It causes misdirection of financial resources that would normally result in productivity, employment and financial stability - things that a reasonable person most wants to see.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @astrorat said:
    "salintary confinement" ... is that where you are denied salt? Cuz that would be pretty harsh. ;)

    That's where you are left alone in a salt mine.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2017 10:06PM

    derryb, we've reached a "permanent plateau" now. Where have I heard that one before?

    havent been trying to be a smartass, but seriously, this is how economics works. Understand it, embrace it, profit from it. There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation or bubbles. Its how a free economy operates. Destroy that, and you have what you least want.

    You've made my point. Fed manipulation keeps attempting to regulate the economic cycle and in so doing, they prevent the economy from regulating itself, i.e. the cure for high prices - is high prices. Where have I heard that before? Isn't that what you've always said? So, it's already not a free economy and we are no better off because of it.

    As derryb points out, this type of Fed interference only causes a bigger blowup when the blowup finally happens. - i.e., more people get affected, and in the worst kinds of ways. The last thing this economy needs is a meltdown magnified even more by a Fed that can't keep it's hands off the debt machine being used primarily to reward their cronies with tax money. I already see too many dis-incentivized people standing on intersections asking for handouts - we don't need any more.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 22, 2017 10:32AM

    Was there an economy before the FED was even created? Were there boom and bust cycles before the creation of the FED? What was the magnitude of those cycles?

    We have an incredibly stable economy today. I really should buy you guys a good book about the US economy during the 1800s for Christmas. The FED just supplies tools. It's up to the people to use those tools. To put it into terms that most on this forum should understand....do you blame the gun manufacturer or the person pulling the trigger.

    This is so much easier to understand when you free your mind of conspiracy and manipulation theories.

    Jmski...it's not the FED on the debt machine, it's your elected officials.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Siberia didn't the phone app launch today from Barbados? Because they said our congressmen are all crooks. IDK sound fishy to me

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    speculation should involve evaluating the fundamentals and a good look at risk vs. reward. However, I'm sure a lot of speculators look only at the feeding frenzy and are after a quick buck.

    So what's wrong with that?

    it creates tulip bubbles

    I remember that song: "Tulip bubbles, in the wine......."

    :D

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 22, 2017 3:35PM

    it's not the FED on the debt machine, it's your elected officials.

    One hand washes the other. The Fed controls rates via the issuance of more debt; Congress authorizes a new debt ceiling in an ongoing sham operation. No accountability, no control. At least the NY Fed makes a nice commission on the sale of Treasuries tho'. It's called "banking".

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Markets dictate rates. Politicians dictate how your money is allocated. The FED merely provides the tools.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Markets dictate rates. Politicians dictate how your money is allocated. The FED merely provides the tools.

    Fixed it for ya:
    Markets dictate rates based on FED funds rate, just as markets dictate gold price based on manipulative futures contracts.
    Politicians dictate how much you pay in taxes and are manipulated into who receives it.
    FED provides the tools to enable politicians, a whole lot of new money being one of them. FED is a tool of the politicians.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Markets dictate rates. Politicians dictate how your money is allocated. The FED merely provides the tools.

    OMG, you really think that the Fed's discount rate has nothing to do with how rates are established? Of course the market can run contrary to the Fed's decision, but don't try to tell me that the Fed doesn't establish the rates and that the member banks aren't the main beneficiaries every time rates are changed.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That's not what I wrote jmski. But think of the FED as the dog and the markets as the tail. I think you know the saying.

    Merry Christmas y'all.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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