@Type2 said:
Let's just say I was told I can have as many MS63 as I want for $40 over spot...
I've been hearing of similar deals.....Quantities are required....
I've also been hearing of large melt lots.....
I don't get it.....It's always been my feeling that I would prefer a nice looking Saint over a gold eagle...Anyday !
Well... I hear a lot of speculation, but very little facts.... Usually, something of the quoted magnitude would get better press...likely closer to the $2 million number though... that would make less news... Cheers, RickO
The funny thing is that it's not a rumor that it exists, it's just a rumor that a bunch is coming back, correct? It's documented that millions of coins went over, it's just not documented what happened to them.
So, reading all the above golden words, I am not smarter then before and please ignore below if it does not make sense.
I do not buy or sell bullion as i believe in Numismatic values.
does all that mean that someone sold the 2M gold coins into the open market for high prices in a very short time?
And perhaps by doing so, tried to drop the price and "around the corner" buy all the lower priced (over supply) coins for low cost to replace what he just sold for high prices?
Its just like "short selling" in the market? Highly profitable if it goes the right way. Nothing to lose if you originally bought at a lower cost.
I would think that the introduction of hoards would lead to a rise in TPG submissions, mainly for the authentication feature. Has any such increase occurred?
Speaking as someone "out of the loop" for 14 years, I can only offer speculation and observation of what info ....I.... have noticed and see daily.
Lured by the ...comparison... to the "old days" premium on saints and general US gold, I started buying slabbed 20's a couple years ago in contrast to my old "straight bullion" past purchases.
I no longer talk daily with my old ...major... bullion dealer, but I do get a daily email from another.
And..... I've noticed larger and larger quantities of US "bullion" coins offered.
At the same time, said email keeps noting ..NOW.. that they are seeking American Gold Eagles ...plus... stating that ORDERS for AGE's are subject to limitations on quantity.
All the while, the US 20's keep dropping and so do the rumors of the vast quantities coming in from Europe.
I'm no longer "stacking." So it's moot for me.
But I wonder if the "exact ounce" is exerting its influence on gold buyers.
@joebb21 said:
The dollar value is irrelevant ultimately for premium part of this story. The real reason for the premium drop is the quality of the coins and the grades they were given. I have seem some of these coins and was talking about them with a major gold dealer over the last day or so. Coins that I grade ms62/3 were in ms64 holders. 65's were 63/64's. It was just embarrassing in my opinion.
The dates affected took some big hits (10-15%) almost overnight
Looking at the Rarcoa buy sheet, with even common MS64 Saints trading at small declined premiums, values are low governed by fussy standards, limited capital except with the top few percent. I thought MS63 coins were supposed to look like gems except for a few distracting field marks, tics or abrasions. We're seeing more grade inflation at the time of declining values. And the chances of rare dates in good condition are statistically small.
I'm lazy, but figuring premiums and spreads may normalize this for some
Don't forget the grading fees really do add up when submitting quantities of gold coins. It's a buyer's market for sure if you want to play in generic $20 gold right now. If you're looking to put away some physical gold, you'd be crazy to pay a premium for AGE's over pre-1933 gold for hoarding purposes.
John Feigenbaum Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com) PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
@FredWeinberg said:
No, of course 2 Million $20's didn't
come out in one shot.
It used to take me a full week or more
to buy $2 million worth of $10's & $20's
in Europe when I was going there on a
regular basis - 1974 to the late 1990's.
(gold spot was less, too)
I'm not a market-maker obviously, and
I don't know all the inside skinny on the
deal.
I heard that it's $20 million per deal -
includes other denominations too.
Will vary with the market price of gold, of course, but I hope this additional stream of supply will make it easier to pick up some $20's for my collection in a year's time (when my own personal cash flow will greatly improve.)
RE: "It's documented that millions of coins went over, it's just not documented what happened to them."
Both ends of the "life" of US double eagles was documented and some of that still exists. Melting and/or redistribution records are in various European central bank archives. Bits and pieces are also in US documents. Many of the survivors are discussed in the post-WW-II Tripartite Gold Commissin records. South American records also show re-distribution of US gold coins to and from Europe.
Even dealers can't get gold coins certified for less than $20 a coin, invoice fees, shipping, etc.. Then you have a certain percentage that come back in 58 or no grade holders. Pre-screen special for gold? I wonder how the big boys make it worth their while unless they cherry pick high grade and cac-able coins for submission. The guy at Rarcoa when I asked about a cac premium said they would compensate for the sticker cost alone.
"The 1907 issue is the go-to No Motto type-coin for many collectors. And that makes perfect sense, as it’s a first- year-of-issue of a two-year type. Listed at $2,000, $2,700 and $3,250 in the CDN CPG, PCGS price guide and Trends, respectively. Each of these choice uncirculated, beautifully designed coins is accompanied by a special PCGS label, which reads “Augustus Saint Gaudens” and includes a picture of the famed designer of some of our country’s most beautiful coinage. We expect a quick sell out.
For those who are looking for their next great marketing program…We have one-hundred coins available…
Offered at $2,000 each. Buy 25 @ $1975. Buy 50 @ $1950. Or buy them all for $1925 each."
It may come to pass that, just like AGE's, common Saints are only "collected" at higher grades, (say, above MS-65?), and anything lower is "just bullion".
I say this as a proud owner of two MS-63 Saints. (Luckily, I bought them when gold was around $400, so I don't care).
There are a lot of interesting, affordable $20 Saint-Gaudens varieties out there. Very few have been cataloged and described. Given the escalating cost of many rather ordinary coins, collectors in search of a new area of interest could buy S-G DEs at a small markup from bullion, and have very limited down-side risk.
I'm glad that I sold all of my double eagles and most of my gold a couple of years ago. I agree with @joebb21 that grade inflation has hurt Saints especially. For me, it was a turn off when the coins were pretty much subpar quality below gem and examples with really nice surfaces and eye appeal (i.e. collector coins) were in holders with lofty grades and with disproportional premiums. It is hard to be excited about paying large sums of money to find an acceptable example of a very common coin.
If the new "MS66+" and "MS67" coins continue to fall to more reasonable prices, I may be forced to look back at the series and consider a variety set. I don't think anyone has written a catalog for those yet. It could be a fun project.
....and the coins coming on the market now
have nothing to do with gold being up or down.
Retired Collector & Dealer in Major Mint Error Coins & Currency since the 1960's.Co-Author of Whitman's "100 Greatest U.S. Mint Error Coins", and the Error Coin Encyclopedia, Vols., III & IV. Retired Authenticator for Major Mint Errors for PCGS. A 49+-Year PNG Member...A full numismatist since 1972, retired in 2022
Hey you "dirty gold guys" I cannot wait to see a few of these "fresh" original coin's from the vaults in Europe. I cannot lay my hands on a "dirty" Saint right now but I'm posting two micrographs to drool over.
BTW, that same gold dealer who told me about the number of coins in the lot looked at some of my "dirty gold" and it was his opinion that the "dirt" was not from Europe. LOL! Get my dirt?
@Insider2 said:
Hey you "dirty gold guys" I cannot wait to see a few of these "fresh" original coin's from the vaults in Europe. I cannot lay my hands on a "dirty" Saint right now but I'm posting two micrographs to drool over.
BTW, that same gold dealer who told me about the number of coins in the lot looked at some of my "dirty gold" and it was his opinion that the "dirt" was not from Europe. LOL! Get my dirt?
A coin doctor I know told me that a 50kg bag of "original Swiss dirt" is available at Home Depot for $27.99, but the grading fees have made dirtying $20's a poor bet. $5 Indians are still worth the grading fees, even though "original French dirt" is at $49.99 due to demand from truffle growers.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
The $5 Indians were the first of this "genre" I ever saw. Now, I hardly see any Branch Mint gold coins that have not been in a grave somewhere for awhile. "Originality" rules.
@FredWeinberg said:
....and the coins coming on the market now
have nothing to do with gold being up or down.
Possible implications:
1) $2.5B (60 tonnes) is not enough to move markets over the calculated dispersal period. Worldwide central bank holdings are 25,000 or so. Also see COMEX/ETF daily volumes.
2) The whole deal is structured with commodities hedges from minute #1.
Goldman Sachs trading algorithms likely will make more money on any given bad day than the buyers/distributors will make on the entire Gold deal through the year or two it might take to disperse.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
Comments
Good question !!!
I'd look for 27-D.
Pete
I've been hearing of similar deals.....Quantities are required....
I've also been hearing of large melt lots.....
I don't get it.....It's always been my feeling that I would prefer a nice looking Saint over a gold eagle...Anyday !
Well... I hear a lot of speculation, but very little facts.... Usually, something of the quoted magnitude would get better press...likely closer to the $2 million number though... that would make less news... Cheers, RickO
The funny thing is that it's not a rumor that it exists, it's just a rumor that a bunch is coming back, correct? It's documented that millions of coins went over, it's just not documented what happened to them.
So, reading all the above golden words, I am not smarter then before and please ignore below if it does not make sense.
I do not buy or sell bullion as i believe in Numismatic values.
does all that mean that someone sold the 2M gold coins into the open market for high prices in a very short time?
And perhaps by doing so, tried to drop the price and "around the corner" buy all the lower priced (over supply) coins for low cost to replace what he just sold for high prices?
Its just like "short selling" in the market? Highly profitable if it goes the right way. Nothing to lose if you originally bought at a lower cost.
YQQ what you said aka "chicken" for billionaires...that's one reason not to be a little fish in bullion.
I would think that the introduction of hoards would lead to a rise in TPG submissions, mainly for the authentication feature. Has any such increase occurred?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Speaking as someone "out of the loop" for 14 years, I can only offer speculation and observation of what info ....I.... have noticed and see daily.
Lured by the ...comparison... to the "old days" premium on saints and general US gold, I started buying slabbed 20's a couple years ago in contrast to my old "straight bullion" past purchases.
I no longer talk daily with my old ...major... bullion dealer, but I do get a daily email from another.
And..... I've noticed larger and larger quantities of US "bullion"
coins offered.
At the same time, said email keeps noting ..NOW.. that they are seeking American Gold Eagles ...plus... stating that ORDERS for AGE's are subject to limitations on quantity.
All the while, the US 20's keep dropping and so do the rumors of the vast quantities coming in from Europe.
I'm no longer "stacking." So it's moot for me.
But I wonder if the "exact ounce" is exerting its influence on gold buyers.
???????????
Draw your own conclusions.
Looking at the Rarcoa buy sheet, with even common MS64 Saints trading at small declined premiums, values are low governed by fussy standards, limited capital except with the top few percent. I thought MS63 coins were supposed to look like gems except for a few distracting field marks, tics or abrasions. We're seeing more grade inflation at the time of declining values. And the chances of rare dates in good condition are statistically small.
CDN bid levels based on $1277 gold
.9675 of which = $1235 per Saint
CDN bids:
.....XF.....AU....58.....60......62.....63.....64.....65
1250 1250 1250 1255 1270 1285 1325 1510
today gold $1273
AGE 1298/1304
I'm lazy, but figuring premiums and spreads may normalize this for some
Don't forget the grading fees really do add up when submitting quantities of gold coins. It's a buyer's market for sure if you want to play in generic $20 gold right now. If you're looking to put away some physical gold, you'd be crazy to pay a premium for AGE's over pre-1933 gold for hoarding purposes.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Will vary with the market price of gold, of course, but I hope this additional stream of supply will make it easier to pick up some $20's for my collection in a year's time (when my own personal cash flow will greatly improve.)
RE: "It's documented that millions of coins went over, it's just not documented what happened to them."
Both ends of the "life" of US double eagles was documented and some of that still exists. Melting and/or redistribution records are in various European central bank archives. Bits and pieces are also in US documents. Many of the survivors are discussed in the post-WW-II Tripartite Gold Commissin records. South American records also show re-distribution of US gold coins to and from Europe.
Even dealers can't get gold coins certified for less than $20 a coin, invoice fees, shipping, etc.. Then you have a certain percentage that come back in 58 or no grade holders. Pre-screen special for gold? I wonder how the big boys make it worth their while unless they cherry pick high grade and cac-able coins for submission. The guy at Rarcoa when I asked about a cac premium said they would compensate for the sticker cost alone.
"The 1907 issue is the go-to No Motto type-coin for many collectors. And that makes perfect sense, as it’s a first- year-of-issue of a two-year type. Listed at $2,000, $2,700 and $3,250 in the CDN CPG, PCGS price guide and Trends, respectively. Each of these choice uncirculated, beautifully designed coins is accompanied by a special PCGS label, which reads “Augustus Saint Gaudens” and includes a picture of the famed designer of some of our country’s most beautiful coinage. We expect a quick sell out.
For those who are looking for their next great marketing program…We have one-hundred coins available…
Offered at $2,000 each. Buy 25 @ $1975. Buy 50 @ $1950. Or buy them all for $1925 each."
It may come to pass that, just like AGE's, common Saints are only "collected" at higher grades, (say, above MS-65?), and anything lower is "just bullion".
I say this as a proud owner of two MS-63 Saints. (Luckily, I bought them when gold was around $400, so I don't care).
I got a few at $45-80.
There are a lot of interesting, affordable $20 Saint-Gaudens varieties out there. Very few have been cataloged and described. Given the escalating cost of many rather ordinary coins, collectors in search of a new area of interest could buy S-G DEs at a small markup from bullion, and have very limited down-side risk.
Good thing gold doesn't spark my fancy!
I find it hard to believe that quality U.S. gold has sat untouched in Europe for a few cycles of gold run-ups. Why now?
He who knows he has enough is rich.
I'm glad that I sold all of my double eagles and most of my gold a couple of years ago. I agree with @joebb21 that grade inflation has hurt Saints especially. For me, it was a turn off when the coins were pretty much subpar quality below gem and examples with really nice surfaces and eye appeal (i.e. collector coins) were in holders with lofty grades and with disproportional premiums. It is hard to be excited about paying large sums of money to find an acceptable example of a very common coin.
If the new "MS66+" and "MS67" coins continue to fall to more reasonable prices, I may be forced to look back at the series and consider a variety set. I don't think anyone has written a catalog for those yet. It could be a fun project.
The percentage of coins preserved is very small. It seems large because we have no modern equivalent of early practices.
Just wait until that golden calf shows up.
....and the coins coming on the market now
have nothing to do with gold being up or down.
for PCGS. A 49+-Year PNG Member...A full numismatist since 1972, retired in 2022
Hey you "dirty gold guys" I cannot wait to see a few of these "fresh" original coin's from the vaults in Europe. I cannot lay my hands on a "dirty" Saint right now but I'm posting two micrographs to drool over.
BTW, that same gold dealer who told me about the number of coins in the lot looked at some of my "dirty gold" and it was his opinion that the "dirt" was not from Europe. LOL! Get my dirt?
A coin doctor I know told me that a 50kg bag of "original Swiss dirt" is available at Home Depot for $27.99, but the grading fees have made dirtying $20's a poor bet. $5 Indians are still worth the grading fees, even though "original French dirt" is at $49.99 due to demand from truffle growers.
The $5 Indians were the first of this "genre" I ever saw. Now, I hardly see any Branch Mint gold coins that have not been in a grave somewhere for awhile. "Originality" rules.
Possible implications:
1) $2.5B (60 tonnes) is not enough to move markets over the calculated dispersal period. Worldwide central bank holdings are 25,000 or so. Also see COMEX/ETF daily volumes.
2) The whole deal is structured with commodities hedges from minute #1.
Goldman Sachs trading algorithms likely will make more money on any given bad day than the buyers/distributors will make on the entire Gold deal through the year or two it might take to disperse.
I am looking forward to buying them close to melt.
Wondering when all those new 1857-S pieces will come to market. Inventory was released a couple of years ago, was it not?