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Earlier date MS70 Silver Eagle Price drops ?
newcollect
Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
Just noticed on the price guides these have dropped in the last few months although the pops have pretty much stayed the same with none changing at all. Do you think the prices have run there course or will it be back ?
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I don't see the supply or prices going up.
The '95W seems to be holding well....
Cheers, RickO
BLUESHEET: MS/PR70 SILVER EAGLES AFFECTED BY INCREASED SUPPLY
November 17, 2017 0 Comment American Silver Eagles, Auctions, coin prices
One series that has received an extensive update this week is certified American Silver Eagles (ASE’s). Over the past decade or more, the ASE has become one of the most-heavily collected series in America, and the competition to build the finest known set was pursued by multiple collectors. This is not unlike many other modern issue, where registry set building has revealed the condition rarity of certain issues that was not previously recognized outside of specialists. Two examples which come immediately to mind are the 1970-D Kennedy half dollar in MS67 and the 1985-P quarter in MS67. In these examples the prices for which these coins transact, whether via public auction or privately, are predicated on the idea that the chances of another coin receiving the same grade is quite small, especially when many thousands of coins have already passed through the grading services. In the case of Silver Eagles, we have seen negative price movement due to the increasing availability of MS/PR70 coins on the market. An example of this is the 1992 business strike: in January of this year a PCGS MS70 coin sold for $16,450 in the Heritage FUN auction. According to the catalog description, at that time there were three coins in this grade at PCGS. The most recent sale of a PCGS MS70 1992 Silver Eagle came in Heritage’s Long Beach sale in September where the price realized was $5,071. According to the catalog description, the population at the time was 17 coins.
It is possible that a pristine roll (or rolls) was submitted in the interim, resulting in the increase in the MS70 population. A quick check of the population report today shows 24 graded MS70 from over 11,000 submissions. While it is impossible to predict the future movement of population numbers, high price realizations often prompt an increase of submissions from those who would not otherwise deploy the capital to grade modern bullion coins.
One semi-empirical method would be to look at the percentage of the total mintage that has been sent to grading. The 1992 Silver Eagle has a mintage of 5,540,068, and there have been a total of 113,358 submissions, which means just over 2% of the total mintage as been certified. If that percentage increases to 5%, how many more MS70 coins might that yield? These are all factors that buyers will need to take into account when determining their bids for finest known modern coinage.
I sold an ANACS MS70 2010 ASE for under $20 on ebay last night. Included a wonderful see through cherrywood box.
Win some and lose some!
bob
332450209695
Price realized and pop are important indicators but the dirty little secret is very many SE graded MS-70 are not. Add to that the number of folks assembling sets of perfect coins. What is happening is not unusual. As more coins are examined and as standards loosen we should expect to reach a point when no more coins will be added to the pop of 70's until more "gradeflation" continues.
I am an "old school" dinosaur. MS-70 is a perfect coin. Remember, not so long ago in our lifetimes none of the major TPGS even recognized that grade although the mint has produced coins since way before even Mr. Newman (RIP) was born that were perfect MS-70's when struck. The $16K coin may actually be an MS-70. That's because perfect SE coins exist (excluding their edges) even under high magnification. I've personally seen many of them in every major TPGS holder. I have also seen "naked eye" 68's labeled as 70's. Furthermore, we know these coins can change in the holder. That's why the grade is no longer guaranteed.
What I think we all can agree on is we should like to have that 16K. It would not be spent on tulip bulbs!
“These are all factors that buyers will need to take into account when determining their bids for finest known modern coinage.”
Can you imagine what the buyers may have paid for the 1992 pop 1 or pop 2 coin. The Mint State silver eagle buyers seem to never learn from previous examples. Anyone remember the $20,000 1986 (with spots?) that Heritage sold?
That said, I would love to read the factors that buyers need to take into account when determining their bids for finest known classic coinage! Say, for example 1885 Liberty Nickels in MS67 top grade that trade one day at $170,000 and then the pop rises by a single coin and the next one trades at $36,000 hammer! Does the Bluesheet have anything to say about that? I don’t subscribe at the moment so I can not say.
Just my two cents.
Wondercoin.
Unfortunately, prices have dropped on many items !!!