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Is the 2017 Burnished Gold Eagle going to be the lowest minted Modern Gold Eagle to date
dmarks
Posts: 450 ✭✭
I have read on some blogs that the last published mint report said under 5400 had been sold? It is now listed as currently unavailable on the mint site. Any thoughts?
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You're right. Last I looked (yesterday), there were 5,320 of these sold.
I may be wrong, but short of 70 grades and the well-publicized varieties in this series (the 2015 $5 narrow reeds, the 1999-W $5 and $10 business strikes from proof dies), I don't think there will be a lot of attention paid to these until gold makes a big-time and publicized advance.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I have the '99W $5 and $10 business strikes from proof dies....mintage has only been estimated...so not sure of the actual rarity. Cheers, RickO
Unlikely a sell out this early, probably just need to strike some more.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Or is it really sold out? These are the times key dates are made. Awful late in the year to strike up the presses again...
Gold Eagle presses run year round. Just a matter of changing the dies. They can sell the W's into the new year just as they did the 2016's.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Will they really strike more. Probably ! They ARE concerned about meeting demand from all us premium stackers after all.
Thank you in advance, US Mint. ; )
Of course you may be right! I hope wrong tho! Would love to see a new low. Makes the series more interesting for collectors. The '08 AGEs and Buffs were great times!!!!
08 was an exception, shortage of gold planchets. I too hope they don't strike more 2017s.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
It was me. Sorry had to have em all
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Of the 5320 2017s that have been sold by the Mint, an unusually high number of 726 of them were sold between Oct.1 and Oct. 8. Did someone get a heads up that the Mint was not going to strike more?
I would expect some of these to get returned and offered for resale by the Mint. I also would not want to receive one from the Mint that was someone else's return. Unsold returns could lower the current sale total of 5,320.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Coin is available once again at the Mint website.
Appears that only two are available, must be returns.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I don't think the mint would mint more of these. I think there is a lot they miss, but I think they understand that is a low mintage play. If they strike another thousand, they will sit there for a year. Who knows though? I guess we will have an updated number tomorrow and then we will have a better idea if this is really the lowest minted eagle. If it is, I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed that way. Its time to end the gold eagle series for heaven sakes. It is too large to interest any new collectors who aren't millionaires because it takes tons of money to complete it. Just my thoughts.
the bulk of Gold American Eagle buyers are not collectors, they are investors. Besides, the four sizes make them fairly affordable to anyone who wishes to collect or invest.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The purity, though.. 22k?! That made sense when gold coins were circulating In the 1800s. Now most everyone else is doing at least .999 and the coins are either slabbed or babied.
I guess we have the gold buffalo if we want higher purity but other than 2008 there's no fractionals.
purity is irrelevant as long as the gold content is all there - one ounce AGEs, while 22k, still contain one full ounce of 24K gold (a one ounce AGE actually weights more than one ounce). All four AGE sizes are available each year in both proofs and bullion coins.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I believe there plans to create fractionals based on the American Liberty design. Probably with the associated markup...
I don't know why they wouldn't strike some more. They typically sell 50-100/week, and have no problem selling them into the next year. Heck, they're still selling the centennial gold and spouse coins from last year...
5768 as of Oct 15
your source?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
mint website
link? I'd like to save that one.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The us mint cumulative stats came out this morning thru 10/15 which is after the sellout of the 2017 w $50 gold burnished eagle. The last known sale is 5,768. This is the lowest minted gold or silver eagle ever for the eagle series!
There are non available at the mint site and I don't think they are going to be coming back
https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/cumulative-sales
You are probably correct, but until Mint confirms final mintage we don't know for sure. A lot sold by the mint in the last two weeks. Defective returns could reduce final sales total.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Wow! Went up 448 between the 10/8 and the 10/15/17 reports!
Lots of people must be reading this thread!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
"The last known sale is 5,768. This is the lowest minted gold or silver eagle ever for the eagle series!"
Almost ensures that sales of either 2018-W or 2019-W $50 will be even lower if the pattern continues as it has for past 10 years. Similar thing happening with $5 Gold Commems. National Park super low mintage coin equates to next to nothing at this point.
Now, as for the issue raised of a possible "tipping off" of the Mint's intentions with respect to coins - that would be a serious problem in my opinion.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
The mint probably short struck these when they debuted in the spring because they read the low demand of all their other gold products at the time. If they'd struck more, they would've sold as many as last year or the year before or the year before that. Ending sales of these now would be the earliest they've ever done so. For the last 5 years or so this coin has lasted into December. The 2012 coin went off sale Nov. 9th of that year and the mint took many by surprise by closing the window.
What Wondercoin said:
2011-W 8729
2012-W 5829
2013-W 7293
2014-W 7902
2015-W 6533
2016-W 6888
2017-W 5768
There certainly is a trend here. Although 2012 was the previous record and are selling for a premium. 2017 could be the key by a slim margin if it's really done.
When you factor in the sell-out dates of each coin, it's not as much of a trend as it appears. It's as much a function of the quantity struck. The '14 lasted into January, the '15 Dec 11, the '16 Dec. 22.
The supply ends up being short this year. Its not like > @wondercoin said:
i don't agree with your take on this issue for 2 reasons.
Firstly, the Us Gold Eagle series is a highly collected series that has a built in collector base. The coins look the same and therefore are strongly cohesive and collected together as a set. The golden commemorative series is just the opposite. Each issue is different and I think that leads to very few collectors putting together a full set. In my opinion, the lowest minted gold eagle in the entire series is a serious development and is something I will follow closely.
Secondly, If you look at the mintage numbers, its not as though they have gone straight down each year. The previous low water mark was set in 2012 and I would be surprised if the mint doesn't strike more coins next year so they have enough coins to sell for a longer portion of the year. Selling out in October is probably not what they had wanted,
My 2 cents!
I just checked ebay and there are now only 6 PCGS MS70s left on the site -
1 2017 Burnished $50 PCGS MS70 first strike - $2450
3 2017 Burnished $50 PCGS MS70 first strike - $2500
1 2017 Burnished $50 PCGS MS70 first day of issue - $6099
1 2017 Burnished $50 PCGS MS70 first strike - $2899
LOL, I think the people reading this analysis agree that this is going to be a great coin!
3 2017 Burnished $50 PCGS MS69 first strike - $1579
5 2017 Burnished $50 raw with box and coa - $1579
It all depends on how much you are willing to pay for the one-point-higher grade.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
For investor uses that's fine. But for industrial or jewelry use it would kind of be a pain to have to factor in 8% copper to the mix.
There is almost never a market for 69's in the modern coin market.
I don't believe people buy American Gold Eagles to melt down for industrial use or jewelry.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
the three 69 First Strikes appear to have gone dark.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I guess there is a market for 69's after all.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Now that everyone scrambled to get these, watch the Mint strike some more.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Akbeez: The Chart looks even more interesting when you start it in 2006.
Wondercoin
Goldman86:
First, as you may know, I have had the highest posted buy (at times the only posted buy) on the 2017-W Burnished Gold Eagle in PCGS SP70 on the dealer network for the past couple months. I bought a decent group of coins over the past few months - enough for me that I did not choose to grab (10) more the other day at $1850 per on eBay (BIN) after you posted this thread. Obviously, you left them behind as well so I assume you have a very, very strong position in them.
Second, when one looks at the mintage figures for the past 7 years:
2011-W 8729
2012-W 5829
2013-W 7293
2014-W 7902
2015-W 6533
2016-W 6888
2017-W 5768
a few things become obvious (to me at least)...
A. Trying to predict what will be the lowest year's mintage figure when this series is over is not easy (to say the least). It was like when Hayes and Garfield became the lowest mintage spouse gold coins and they skyrocketed in price for a short time until they were knocked down as the low mintage leaders.
B. I do not believe these 2017-W Gold Eagles with their mintage roughly 60 coins lower than 2012-W will render the 2012-W coins worthless or even crash the price of 2012-W coins (I assume you do not either). Hence, when (and if) 2018-W or 2019-W (or 2020-W) come in at 6,000 or 6,250 or even 5,750, the "key" coins may not be conclusively determined until the series ends (-20- years from now(?) or whenever).
Again, congrats on your (likely) position in these coins. I made money as well on the coins I currently have in stock. That said, I still think the next 3-5 years of this particular series will be very interesting from the mintage perspective.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Mitch,
Trying to predict what will be the series mintage key as a series is still in progress is practically impossible. There are to many variables in play to come away with a highly educated guess. That being said, the 2017 burnished gold eagle is the lowest on the mintage table as of now! It is the king until proven otherwise. I firmly believe the value of the 2012w $50 burnished gold eagle will be significantly hurt by the 2017 beating its mintage number. Everyone remembers the champ, but it ain't close to as easy to name the loser of the championship games or series.
2017 is the champ! 2012 is a great year, but 2nd place.
The 5768 number is as of 10/15. They had at least some coins remaining until 10/18. Too soon to call a winner.
"Everyone remembers the champ, but it ain't close to as easy to name the loser of the championship games or series."
Anybody remember the 2008-W Proof Gold Buffalo vs. the 2015-W Proof Gold Buffalo
Wondercoin
Probably due to lack of interest? There are already gold eagles.
Anybody remember the 2008-W Proof Gold Buffalo vs. the 2015-W Proof Gold Buffalo
2008 Buffalo has dropped in value after being beaten in mintage by the 2013 and then again by the 2015 Buffalo. 2008 is helped by being part of the 4 coin set that year, but again, it's value has certainly come down.
It is the same story every time. Get beat on the mintage table, lose value... Can you name an exception to that rule in the modern arena?
The 2012-S silver proof Kennedy half was handily beaten by the 2015-S. Two years later, the 2012-S remains well over $100 while the 2015-S remains in the low to mid $20's.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Isn't the "Key" 2015-W Proof Buffalo Gold still worth less than the 2nd or 3rd best (2008-W) coin?
Wondercoin
Not if I am buying, Give me the 15 buff over the 13 buff all day!
The 08 buff is a different story because it is tied to the factional buff coins and therefore has a 2nd collector base.
in Regards to the 2012 S Kennedy Proof Silver, it is not a series I follow or collect. You are probably correct, but it isn't something I know.
So, we are in agreement that the key date, lowest mintage Proof Gold Buffalo (2015-W) is worth less than the 3rd lowest mintage coin in the proof Buffalo gold series. You asked for an example of that and there it is. I agree it is "tied to" other coins. Yet, I am mildly disappointed in the performance of my 2015-W Proof Gold Buffs to date.
Wondercoin
2008 18863
2013 18584
2015 16592
2008 vs the 2013 and 2015 is apples to oranges. The 4 coin sets increases the collectors of the $50 Gold Buffalo.
I would agree the 2013 Buff has a higher mintage and is worth more than 2015 on grey sheet, but I don't think that guide is useful at all. I smile and accept whenever someone offers me the 15 cheaper than the 13! I believe the market will correct at some point.
I did ask for the one time, and you were able to find the exception to the rule. I give you full credit for that.
But the exception is just that... an outlier... there are hundreds of times the lower mintage out values the higher mintage... would you agree with that!