By the numbers
Justacommeman
Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
Received this fun read from my Morgan Stanley guy. There will be something for everyone to disagree with
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BY THE NUMBER$
10/09/17 Edition
NOT THE LONGEST BULL YET - The bull market for the S&P 500 will reach 103 months in length as of the close of trading today (10/09/17). That’s the 2nd longest bull market for the stock index since 1950, trailing only the 113 ½ month-long bull that ended in March 2000. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
HIGH AFTER HIGH - During its 103 month-long bull market, the S&P 500 has set 169 all-time record closing highs including its most recent on Thursday 10/05/17, its 6th in the last 7 trading days (source: BTN Research).
ROLLIN’ ON - The S&P 500 gained +4.5% (total return) during the 3Q 2017, its 8th consecutive “up” quarter. It also marked the 18th of the last 19 quarters that have produced a total return gain (source: BTN Research).
A DECADE AGO - It was 10 years ago today (Tuesday 10/09/07) that the S&P 500 peaked at a then all-time record closing high of 1565. The very next day, the index began a painful 17 month tumble that resulted in a 57% drop of the raw index, its worst bear market loss in the last 80 years. In the last 80 years (i.e., back to 1937), the S&P 500 has suffered through 4 bears, each with losses of at least 40% (source: BTN Research).
SAGE ADVICE - It was 9 years ago (10/16/08) that Warren Buffet wrote his “Buy America, I Am” op-ed article in the New York Times. Buffett encouraged investors to “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Buffett’s letter was released less than 5 months before the stock market bottomed on 3/09/09, ending a 57% decline of the S&P 500 (source: New York Times).
THE WORLD’S BIGGEST - The US economy is $19.25 trillion in size as of 6/30/17. 10 years ago (2007), the economy was worth $14.48 trillion. 20 years ago (1997), it was worth $8.61 trillion. 30 years ago (1987), it was worth $4.87 trillion (source: Commerce Department).
ALL IN THE FAMILY – A single political party has controlled the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives in 21 of the last 60 years, i.e., 1958-2017. Republicanscontrol all 3 this year (2017). Democrats last controlled all 3 in 2010 (source: BTN Research).
BANKING BUSINESS - The last bank to fail in the United States and require a financial bailout occurred on 5/26/17 or 136 days ago. That’s the 2nd longest stretch between American bank failures in the last 10 years, a decade that has seen 526 bank failures or 1 failure per week (source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).
MOST EVER - US oil producers exported 1.984 million barrels a day during the week ending Friday 9/29/17, the largest weekly total ever exported by American oil firms. The total broke the old record, which had been set just a week earlier, by +33% (source: Energy Department).
RUNNING A LITTLE SHORT - 43% of 6,389 Americans surveyed admit that they “have difficulty making ends meet” (source: National Financial Well-Being Survey, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau).
DEDUCTION GOING AWAY? - Among the numerous recommendations in the 9/27/17 Trump plan for tax reform was the elimination of the individual deduction for state and local taxes, including property taxes. Taxpayers in just 2 states (California and New York) utilize 33% of the deduction (by dollar) and just 6 states get 51% of the deduction’s use. Nationwide, just under 92% of the economic benefit of the state and local tax deduction flows to taxpayers with gross incomes in excess of $100,000 (source: Internal Revenue Service).
NEIGHBORLY - Canada cut its top corporate tax rate to 15% as of 1/01/12. The Trump White House proposed on 9/27/17 to cut the top US corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% (source: White House).
ESTATE TAXES - The federal estate tax exemption is $5.49 million for 2017 deaths, i.e., a married couple would be able to shelter $10.98 million from federal estate and gift taxes. Only an estimated 80 small farms and closely held businesses will leave estates that will be subject to the payment of federal estate taxes as a result of a 2017 death. An estimated 2.6 million Americans will die in 2017 (source: Tax Policy Center).
PROVIDES JOBS - The football stadium to be built in Inglewood, CA that will house the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers beginning with the 2020 season will provide jobs for 22,000 construction workers plus 12,000 full-time and part-time jobs once the stadium is completed (source: NFL).
BIG FLY AND NO FLY - Major League Baseball set records for strikeouts in a season (40,104) and home runs in a season (6,105) during the 2017 regular season that ended on Sunday 10/01/17 (source: MLB).
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Comments
apropos of nothing on point 14 I have heard the chargers can't sell out their games and fans of the away teams have been packing in there and its getting pretty silly.
Didn't they move because they had no luck convincing locals to pay for a new stadium? Who is paying for the one that they will share with the Rams ?
I enjoy reading those.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I disagreed because you said.
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Despite massive economic gains heaped upon the top quartile of Americans, the majority struggle to stay in the middle class and save much of anything for retirement. Income disparity in the United States is greater than any time in history.
Edit: Damn number symbol (hashtag) makes the whole sentence size 24 font and bold.
Lol....that's only 2747 people. Keep the good times a rollin.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This is true, I am in an industry that is a witness to this everyday, I see the frustration building in the middle class. The pay is just not increasing to keep up with life's needs and even wants.
Very interesting... Thanks for posting this.... Some tidbits I would not have known (the research would interfere with my wild and crazy lifestyle
)....Cheers, RickO
Wait till robots take the majority of simple, remedial and repetitive jobs.....then wait for the "national income", where the gov't gives you money without need for hardship such as welfare and unemployment. Imagine a society where everyone gets paid the same.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know very scary and true, counter jobs here are already gone we have self serve counter restaurants or slop food stores, mouth entertainment with no nutrition's value. walk in with your fancy phone order don not talk to anyone get your slop or now we have app order parking outside drive up and your slops in a box now you don't even need too see anyone. wait mr cohodk have we became the robots or slaves to the robots???
With AI and robotics/automation, there increasingly will be not enough work where it is economically worth-while to employ human beings.
Beyond the economic crisis this promises is the larger cultural/social crisis. Throughout history, peoples' sense of worth has been tied to what they can productively and competently offer their family/society. Without productive work, where will that sense of worth then come from for people?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Without productive work, where will that sense of worth then come from for people
Opiods.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
13.ESTATE TAXES - The federal estate tax exemption is $5.49 million for 2017 deaths, i.e., a married couple would be able to shelter $10.98 million from federal estate and gift taxes. Only an estimated 80 small farms and closely held businesses will leave estates that will be subject to the payment of federal estate taxes as a result of a 2017 death. An estimated 2.6 million Americans will die in 2017 (source: Tax Policy Center).
That is why there are so many lawyers and accountants in the US. This is also why life insurance companies are still in business...exercising loopholes are an American pastime
Good post.
Opioids & Alcohol. Seems depressants are all the rage?
Cheer up , I hear cocaine is making a comeback
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Not in my neighborhood it's not.
That Mexican Meth is everywhere tho.....
Yes, the world is changing... yes, robots and AI are impacting many aspects of life... but we went through the industrial revolution and cultural changes and we will adjust to the coming world as well. Change is exciting, adapt or die... Cheers, RickO
Implications for the stock market found here:
http://zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-11/bridgewater-fraud-here-are-troubling-questions-posed-jim-grant
I knew it would happen.
or obtain or live a life that does not make you change who you want to be, I am on the opposite plan if the majority do it I go the other way.
@oldstandard....Totally agree... 'To thine own self, be true.' Cheers, RickO