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price guide idea

GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

I have seen several article and posts about the lack of any meaningful price guides. People complain the prices are brought down by coins that sold as dreck or don't take in consideration coins that are at the high end of the grade. A few thoughts:

My idea of a price guide would be one put together by many different people and all specializing in their niche. I know to some extent this goes on already but I would have it very specialized. For instance, when putting together the Kentucky Collection of Quarter Eagles, I knew the price guides were high or low (mostly low) on many liberty quarter eagles. I essentially made my own price guide to help me make decisions on buying and auctions. I used auction data and added my own subjectivity about whether the coins was high end or low end. I used other factors in determining price such as how often the coin appeared, CAC, etc. With a little investigation I was able to determine who purchased a coin at auction and could make a decision whether or not the price was a "fluke" or good evidence as to the value of the coin. At the end of the day, I would put my price guide of quarter eagles against any price guide. Yes, it has some subjectivity but that is far better than simply giving every sale and every coin the same weight regardless of other factors. I know how much time I put into my own price guide and it would be impossible for me to do more than one series. If a price guide had an "expert" who used subjectivity (and was trusted and unbiased) for every different series, I think that it would go a long way towards solving the problem.

I can hear the complaints already --- why let one person make subjective decisions, what if they had a rooting interest for or against a coin, what if I disagree with what they think is a high end coin, etc.

My point is that I came up with something that worked for my series. Everyone seems to think the current price guides are not working. I think using something like I described above is workable and better.

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    KellenCoinKellenCoin Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭✭

    I think the idea is good in theory. However, there are two differences in practice.

    1) This is already attempted by people like PCGS and the Red Book, but ultimately guides like that are often used as general guides. Which leads me to my second point:
    2) People who are specialized like you are will be developing and trusting their own prices, so spending the extra effort and money to create an ultra-accurate guide (which could be outdated soon anyways) does not make sense.

    Just my thoughts.

    YN Member of the ANA, ANS, NBS, EAC, C4, MCA, PNNA, CSNS, ILNA, TEC, and more!
    Always buying numismatic literature and sample slabs.

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    CoinstartledCoinstartled Posts: 10,135 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2017 4:22PM

    Only thing of value is recent auction results. One has to examine each coin as well as possible to determine dreck/PQ quotient.

    Fortunately this data is easily accessed at no cost.

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    msch1manmsch1man Posts: 809 ✭✭✭✭

    To me, the key to a useful price guide is not just having prices items sold for, but having good pictures as well. As we all know, in many cases, the "same" coin (i.e. same grade/holder) can sell for X in one case and 2X (or more) in another...usually when you see pictures of the coins, you can see why. That's the biggest reason I find the Heritage and Stack's archives to be incredibly useful. You can look at all the recent sales and individually determine whether the coin you're considering is superior/inferior to the recent sales...and if you're lucky, find one or two that are just about equal. No, it's not perfect because it's based on pictures vs. in-hand inspection, but I think it's the best thing out there currently.

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    rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My price guide is my judgement of the coin and how much I am willing to pay to own it......sure, I know site prices and auction prices.... so that gives me a range to consider. However, it all comes down to the coin and what I consider a fair price to pay. Cheers, RickO

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    A price guide is only a starting point and nothing more. i look at auction results as I think this is more in tune with the market.

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    skier07skier07 Posts: 3,687 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Price guides, the Red Book, GS, Coinfacts, etc. are nothing more than starting points.

    For me, not having access to private sales information, auction results are the best source of information. Between eBay, GC , HA, and SB there's lots of useful free information.

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    cclccl Posts: 10
    edited September 18, 2017 4:37PM

    We would consider a website build which has sales of coins in structured data format, like we have done for Chinese coins.

    This is where you can look up a coin by type then see all sales in all conditions (or isolate one coin in a specific grade).

    With our Chinese Coins Live website, we track 110+ different auctioneers and marketplaces where all ~7,000-10k sales are each month are assigned by type and condition.

    This can be then used in charts and data tables and used in other applications.

    More interesting than that to us is building a website which has all graded coins for sale right now in structured data format, so you would truly be able to see all 'of a kind' coins available at a given time. We estimate that to be somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 coins.

    I have non-coin related projects in the works right now but if there is community interest I'd love to know.

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 18, 2017 5:43PM

    First, no two coins are the same. And secondly, dealers like having the advantage of "knowing" the markets in their heads. Many don't need a price guide for their specialty areas. Its not much different for used car prices via KBB and NADA. Dealer has the advantage as the guides are full of errors and traps.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:
    I have seen several article and posts about the lack of any meaningful price guides. People complain the prices are brought down by coins that sold as dreck or don't take in consideration coins that are at the high end of the grade. A few thoughts:

    My idea of a price guide would be one put together by many different people and all specializing in their niche. I know to some extent this goes on already but I would have it very specialized. For instance, when putting together the Kentucky Collection of Quarter Eagles, I knew the price guides were high or low (mostly low) on many liberty quarter eagles. I essentially made my own price guide to help me make decisions on buying and auctions. I used auction data and added my own subjectivity about whether the coins was high end or low end. I used other factors in determining price such as how often the coin appeared, CAC, etc. With a little investigation I was able to determine who purchased a coin at auction and could make a decision whether or not the price was a "fluke" or good evidence as to the value of the coin. At the end of the day, I would put my price guide of quarter eagles against any price guide. Yes, it has some subjectivity but that is far better than simply giving every sale and every coin the same weight regardless of other factors. I know how much time I put into my own price guide and it would be impossible for me to do more than one series. If a price guide had an "expert" who used subjectivity (and was trusted and unbiased) for every different series, I think that it would go a long way towards solving the problem.

    I can hear the complaints already --- why let one person make subjective decisions, what if they had a rooting interest for or against a coin, what if I disagree with what they think is a high end coin, etc.

    My point is that I came up with something that worked for my series. Everyone seems to think the current price guides are not working. I think using something like I described above is workable and better.

    I do something like this for Flying Eagle and Indian cents. I publish it in the Fly-In club's journal, "Longacre's Ledger" and on my web site. You are so right that it is a monumental task. It is for Photo Sealed (properly graded) coins only. There is a great problem with overgraded coins depressing markets. I try not to let them negatively influence pricing, but if 3/5ths of the data points are from the low auction results from the sales of overgraded coins, it becomes difficult not to be influenced by the negative trend.

    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
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    How about we do a wikipedia for coins ?

    It could include a priceguide too, but the point is that it will be edited and generated by qualified users, and not only by PCGS e.g.

    Bruce Morelan could contribute a lot to the Dollars sections.

    I could contribute to Type coins.

    PCGS has all the pictures already, but we would probably get much more editorial text

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