Upgrading PCGS Morgans Odds
kenriles012
Posts: 170 ✭✭
I think it is becoming more well known that the idea that early holdered coins and in particular PCGS OGH are like "automatic upgrades" but there are still coins out there in holders that are under-graded.
I am curious if anybody would have any comment on a pure sight-unseen basis what are the odds let us say a conditional rarity like an 1880-o MS 64 graded 5, 10, or 15 years ago would upgrade to a 65 today?
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I think you are incorrect regarding the idea of "automatic upgrades". The OGH coins have been picked over so much in the intervening nineteen years since the demise of the OGH that the great majority of those worthy of resubmission for likely upgrade have either already been resubmitted or would cost a significant premium to assigned grade to obtain. Regardless, I would suspect a rather high percentage of extant OGH coins are either over graded or are what we might consider "problem coins".
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
In order to make a call on an upgrade you would have to be an expert grader in the series and be on top of what the TPGs are doing at this point in time. If you are not, save your money.
100%
I think the odds of picking an upgrade on a better date at random are very low unless you buy from a fresh hoard from a collector that has not been keeping up with market trends. Most of these have been picked over, and you can bet that one that has been traded openly (and sometimes over and over) has been reviewed by a number of crack out artists.
With a constantly changing gradeflation & grade_de_flation atmosphere there is no such thing as an "automatic" upgrade. Coins must speak for themselves. The only absolute is that coins in any, well most, grading service slabs & slab eras, even basement slabbers, can upgrade depending on the coin and original grade. It's a game and a fun, but expensive, one however it can pay off bigly!.. Or cause you to eat ramen noodles for a couple months. I've had both big hits and decent losses but for me the hits far outway the losses. If you know how to grade well and how to spot problem coins plus know how PC or ATS are grading at a given time you can make big $$.
Forget the OGH's. Start looking at coins graded in the last 2 months. (Not common junk like 1880-S 64 or 65.)
I just did this. I broke 2 out of the slab and sent them in for grading and both moved up 1 point. I knew one would upgrade but the other I was questionable about. The point is, even though it upgraded there are many out there that don't agree with the grade and who would not pay 65 prices for the coin. The other one I think could get a CAC sticker.
Don't quote me on that.
I've upgraded several in rattlers, by 2 points...but those are rare finds. OGH I've upgraded several by a point. Those are more common.
Nil.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
1880-O man that's gonna be one tough coin to find in a 64 holder looking to be a 65. OGH I agree with the others. If memory serves me right that was a running joke in 1990 bid on an 1880-O in 65, as there werent' any made yet or was it the PLs and DMPLs not made. Well, I get the concept, but so many collectors and quite astute like you. I think Nil ......maybe some other coins though of lesser value.
This thread makes me laugh a little. Call me old fashioned, but I think it sort of depends on the coin in the holder.
No coin is an automatic upgrade. No person "knows" what the graders will do. There is almost never a consensus on a coin's assigned grade. There are only opinions. Some are informed, experienced opinions and some are just opinions.
YMMV
As indicated, there are no 'automatic upgrades'....If you have good grading skills, you would likely be able to determine any likely candidates for upgrade.... They will be rare though... Cheers, RickO
Maybe this one is undergraded by 2 points. LOL
If it's not resting in a newer holder by now there is a reason for it. 80-O in 64 OGH will probably remain there. Way too big of spread to not already be upgraded IMO