Scary Movie

jmski52

from Zero Hedge:

zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-03/hedge-fund-cio-want-make-grown-nerd-cry-run-500-rate-increase-through-his-risk-model

August is over, which means that Eric Peters, the CIO of One River Asset Management, is back to doing what he is so very good at: distilling the week's events and latest financial and economic trends into pithy, one-paragraph aphorisms.  Without further ado, here is an anecdotal excerpt from his latest weekend notes.

---

Scary Movie

I love movies. Scary ones especially. Keep your happy endings, give me chainsaws. Meat hooks.
I’ll never forget ERM in 1992. That was my first real snuff flick as a Lehman prop trader.

The Italians never stood a chance in the film, they never do. Show me an Italian who can resist a dark woodshed and I’ll show you a hero in a hockey mask.

At least the Swedes put up a fight in the flick. Their central bankers raised overnight rates to 500%. Want to make a grown nerd cry? Run that interest rate through his risk model. But of course, not a single propeller-head imagined such a monster.

Anyhow, my next scary movie was Orange County, 1994. The great bond massacre brought terrified traders to tears.
Mexico devalued too; Tequila Slammer. So many strings inextricably woven into that tangled tale.

These intricate plots build over years, unravel in months. Asian Flu was released in 1997, classic zombie apocalypse genre. Just when the virus seemed contained, along came a sequel; Russian Flu in 1998. A month later they released LTCM, a documentary about the dangers of mixing academics and money.

Wall Street is remaking that classic as we speak; a big budget Black Monday II. Revenge of the Sock Puppet was released in 2001, followed quickly by 9-11. Then things went quiet for what seemed like forever.

But 7yrs later Haunted House came out - scared the crap out of everyone, even hardened criminals flipping cribs from cellblocks.

European Debt Crisis was released in 2011, a real nail biter, until some Italian saved mankind with a printing press. It’s been happy endings ever since.

Chick flicks, corsets, period pieces. Utterly boring. But in my three decades of watching scary movies, on average there’s been a blockbuster surprise every three to four years.

And it’s been six since 2011.

derryb

Lots of remakes on the horizon.

jmski52

A trillion here, a trillion there. Sooner or later it adds up to real money.

ricko

I suppose that diatribe made sense to some people.... the general gist, I believe, is that black swan events, and other big deals, influence the market....Ya suppose?? And here comes the fat punk in North Korea.... Cheers, RickO

Baley

Fortunately, the movies usually have endings, though not all characters survive.

The world itself, and America, very seldom end.

cohodk

Wow, all that "scary" stuff and yet we are all here bantering on the internet, equities are at all time highs, real estate is strong, unemployment is low, and football starts next week. Dang life is good.

jmski52

News Flash - college football has already started. Well, unless you are waiting for the Iowa vs. Iowa State game, in which case football does start next week.

USASoccer

Football huge game on Tuesday night in Honduras!

media.gettyimages.com/photos/fans-of-the-united-states-celebrate-during-a-fifa-2014-world-cup-picture-id160847146?s=612x612

ShadyDave

@derryb said:
Lots of remakes on the horizon.

That doesn't seem to be working for Hollywood this summer.....

https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/07/hollywood-has-a-bad-movie-problem/532602/

ricko

Hollywood is full of hacks and losers now... no talent left, running out of remakes and the actors could be replaced by trained parrots....Terrible products coming out now and the market reflects it.....Cheers, RickO

1630Boston

Trained parrots, I like that.