Sales data on major cards. It's a correction folks.

CrissCriss

There seem to be many in denial about whether there is a market correction occurring. So I started looking at VCP data over the past year. For the following cards I took sales from the last half of 2016 and averaged them (ignoring the early part of 2016 when prices were higher on many cards); then I took 2017 sales to date and averaged them. The data speaks for itself. I'm going to add other cards to this when I have time.

51 Mays PSA 8: $75,087 avg price 7/16-12/16
$61,328 avg price 2017

• 19%.
  54 Aaron PSA 8: $25,160 vs. $21,255
  -16%

55 Clemente PSA 8: $55,635 vs. $38,143
-32%.

55 Koufax PSA 8: $14,276 vs. 12,279
-14%.

52 Mantle PSA 7: $168,974 vs. $156,000
-8%.

I used PSA 7 for the 52 Mantle to avoid the debate over the last PSA 8. Given that Brent just sold a 7.5 for $175,000, barely over last year's average for a 7, expect a further drop.

Then I looked at the 65 Namath, in PSA 8, the most iconic post war football card:

$37,662 vs. $30,596, a decline of 19%.

I'll be adding others later. Pretty interesting.

muffins

'79 gretzky?
'15 jackson?
'14 ruth?
any signed early hof rc or mantle?

see. its too easy.

DM23HOF

1. Selection bias.

2. I for one could not possibly care less about what a random card sells for or what a random man pays for it.
   I care only about the specific, individual cards I have chosen to pursue for my collecting pleasure.

   I just do not see a collector who loves their card caring one iota about whether or not another card in the same
   grade (not the same card) sells for 4k more or 4k less or 10% more or 10% less than they paid for theirs. If it's in a
   collection and the collector isn't selling for ten years or maybe ever, what's the point in even looking at someone
   else's sale or purchase? It's a foolish dog that barks at a flying bird.

3. If someone is strictly flipping cards short term, and it's all about short term cash, I agree, different story.

End of the day, I am always baffled as to the goal of such thread as this; do their authors think that some genuine baseball lover and collector out there is really going to read the post and say to himself, "Oh my God, my cards, which I love, might be going down in value! I am so upset right now! Whatever will I do! I better freak out and dump these little cards that give me so much pleasure to collect and look at, because another card just sold for less than it previously sold for." There is a vaccine that provides complete and total immunity to this, and it's called being a pure collector.

travis t

Add nauseam. Stir continuously until achieving a milky consistency. Serves infinity.

addicted2ebay

The summer of 2016 is something we will never see again. I don't know exactly what happen but many vintage cards went up 400-500% overnight. It's not surprising that many are coming back down to earth.

DM23HOF

My point with those two words was that I am certain those interested in dueling banjos can find some cards that have had recent high sales.

In terms of myself, I honestly don't care. I didn't buy any of those cards. I collect, so I care about building and enjoying my collection.

To some of us this hobby isn't actually about cash at all, as I tried to explain above.

And as I said above, one is left wondering what the agenda is, though it seems an agenda destined not to be achieved.

BeRoyalKC

I don't have VCP but I'm curious what the increase in Harper, Trout, and Judge was over this same time. Or decrease but Judge is impossible and I follow Harper pretty close and there have been some nice gains. Not saying the vintage investors shift their $ to the new guys but at the end of the day there is only so much $ to go around and when something is up as much as it was last year something had to be down. It seems to me that late 70's thru 80's unopened has leveled off over the year. Glad I collect / invest in stuff I like so if it does go down in value I don't get too upset but then again I'm not a player in cards for $15K either.

Dpeck100

Whomever bought a PSA 8 Rose for over $18k can't be enjoying this price action. I bet the VCP chart on that card looks like the perfect bubble formation.

Would be intersting to see it. Because of overall sales volumes at those prices it might not look as intense at the peak as I invision but the fall has been relentless just like the run was.

DM23HOF

I don't discuss such general pricing trends with the card dealers I know. Simple truth is, my discussions with the one or two dealers I know are always centered on the hunt for cards I am after. Those discussions inevitably lead to me chafing them for being unable to find what I want, LOL!

I agree it is no revelation. And I would also agree that the data you cited is true. Yet I would also state as fact that there are several cards I am after that are going to cost me more today than they would have cost me a year ago. Personally, I wish everything was cheaper. Much cheaper. But then my collection would probably get too cluttered, and finding display solutions is hard enough as it is.

travis t

What "we" already know is that a major uptick in last year's sales occurred right before THE NATIONAL. Do you really wanna keep pushing your ridiculous agenda OP? It's not a correction if a small group of people were manipulating the market and have since ceased shoving their collective fists up the hobby's rectum. It's the reality of the marketplace as it existed prior to the shenanigans.

tbonewilly

Hows that old Yankee guy doing, hmm, something Judge, how was his 2016 vs 2017 pricing Sorry, I couldn't help myself...

DM23HOF

@travis t said:
It's not a correction if a small group of people were manipulating the market and have since ceased shoving their collective fists up the hobby's rectum. It's the reality of the marketplace as it existed prior to the shenanigans.

That's actually an interesting and astute point. If what happened last year with those cards was an attempt at nefarious manipulation— as I think we can all agree it was— then we can't really conflate that manipulation with a genuine rise.

In other words, it can't cut both ways; if it was a genuine rise, then it's now a correction. But if it was fake sales or manipulation, then it was never "real," so to speak.

travis t

I believe "artificial" was the trendy term going around back then.

travis t

This is a revolving door argument. We could both be right. And we could both be crazy. The run-up occurred before your catalog of examples - PRE-NATIONAL. I read VCP just like you do. I watched the trends. Heck, it's what drove me away from the madness in the first place. I've purchased more water wear and beach sandals than collectibles this year. At least no one manipulates the price of board shorts. And they fit perfectly.

gemint

I don't think it hurts to have a discussion about the market health. In my opinion, the correction is rather modest in light of the nearly unprecedented surge in prices over the past 18 months. It will be interesting to see if there are further corrections and what prices will do the next time the economy takes a turn for the worse. At present, the market is healthy, albeit at a lower level than the peak from a year ago.

belz

Look at the bird/magic rookie card. Check out recent sales on that card in psa 10...keeps going up based on scarcity and love of the game imo. Ebbs and flows. Basketball and basketball cards are very important and it comes down to who's willing to pay and the market...I love these fluctuations. A mantle rookie card will always be strong to me...if I can get one that looks great at a good price then I'm a buyer, just that simple...it's what people want and the time frame that they want it..so simple.

muffins

very important aspect is being completely left out here, crisser.

the "whatever" cards ability to be bumped or the "certified high-end" aspect of said card.

with this being said, ya simply cant compare low and high sales figures.

its a case by case basis these days.

auction off a truly high end card for the particular grade these days and it will still blow away 2016 prices.

throw out a low end, old flip card to be auctioned off right before the national, w terrible advertising and by hardly known auction house and you'll probably get a terrible result.

cliff notes: you are talking averages. collectors arent interested in avg cards these days.

whether its a psa 1 or psa 9 they want cards that transcend the typical grade. and will pay for it.

thats the ooh and ahh factor these days. not the tech grade assigned.

remember...time is the most important asset. not cardboard and certainly not money.

so continue wasting yours compiling all these sales figures and threads. the court does need its jester.

Dand522612

68 Ryan Criss?

tonylags

@Dpeck100 said:
Whomever bought a PSA 8 Rose for over $18k can't be enjoying this price action. I bet the VCP chart on that card looks like the perfect bubble formation.

Would be intersting to see it. Because of overall sales volumes at those prices it might not look as intense at the peak as I invision but the fall has been relentless just like the run was.

Most people that play in {buy} these cards & market, probably don't care about the daily/monthly/perhaps even yearly valuations. They make and lose this much money in a day I imagine. They might be concerned when they sell it or they will just chalk it up as a "loss on investment" and write it off {if cards are classified as such}

Dpeck100

Tony the vast majority of successful people don't like to lose any money. It's not to suggest it never happens but their not remotely interested in it happening.

I don't know anyone who would not be disappointed if they bought something of value at this level and watched it shed two thirds of it in a year. It may be true that on a personal level they won't be hurt but this is not the kind of investment you can make repeatedly and maintain any form of wealth.

The best part of cards though is you still have something.

jfkheat

Anything that goes up as fast as cards did last year will eventually drop. The same thing happened with unopened 1980s football boxes. Most are down 30-40% below what they were selling for last year.
James

Dand522612

I just can't compare anything without looking at specific examples side by side. No other way empirically to decide if an example is high, high end and commands the cash. . Or a real ugly looking slider. This logic is anecdotal at best.

What I do know is I am always looking for high end vintage, centered, eye appeal cards. In 7-8 condition the inventory for high end is nil, those that are high end have crazy prices. A lot of material is in long term collectorss and it is becoming rare that high end examples come out without breaking the bank. This may be empirical

DM23HOF

I look at my cards much more as a luxury item than an investment.

muffins

dpeck,

you should know and throw out the tvm and rather short period of time we are talking here.

we are still talking capital gains time periods here. most guys buying these type cards, they arent looking at the overnight aspect. long term is the key.

like stocks, the money is in making smart purchases ahead of the curve and....holding.

accordingly, they have the money to do so and more importantly know when to cash out and when to reacquire.

flippers are the ones that get burned short term and that doesnt bother me one freaking bit!

prgsdw

Please alert me 24 hours in advance of the market bottom - so i can get a good nights sleep prior to the big buying opportunity. I'll then be willing to pay bottom dollar for a large array of high grade vintage Dallas Cowboys cards. Thanks in advance.

Dpeck100

The "smart money" doesn't buy a card after a 6 fold run up in the case of the 1963 Topps Pete Rose PSA 8 I am referencing.

There are plenty of cards that will ebb and flow over the long run and be higher. But I don't know that you can say that in all cases. If the OP is right it isn't done going down.

I have no clue what the right price is but moves like this generally don't repeat themselves so it's most likely wishful thinking to see 18k plus on that card anytime soon and potentialy ever.

HighGradeLegends

@DM23HOF said:
I look at my cards much more as a luxury item than an investment.

I second that. I sell on the side to build up my slush fund for my personal enjoyment of buying what I want. Short term values mean little in the grand view. Considering the prices I saw when I left the hobby in 2009 vs today, 10-20% reduction is no big deal.

muffins

present facts that the rose psa 8 at $18k was actually paid for.

hence, manipulation not correction.

Dpeck100

Ask a board member how they paid for a swimming pool.

DM23HOF

I wish I wasn't cursed wanting cards that keep going up in price. Drats. I need to change my taste!

SpinFadeSplash23

What I can't figure out is, are you happy there is a correction or not? Does this allow you to purchase more of the cards you enjoy, or are you trolling? The tone of your posts is odd and I can't tell whether you feel this is a good thing or not.

muffins

@Dpeck100 said:
Ask a board member how they paid for a swimming pool.

$18k minus commission, shipping costs and lets just call it a near $3k original purchase price...

hot tub or above ground?

Darin

I didn't save money with Geico, but thanks to the market correction
I bought a Yount PSA 9 rookie for a lot less than they were selling for last year.

rcmb3220

The thing that keeps me up at night is that it's been a really long time since BBCe has had any junk era topps rack cases in stock. Am I ever going to be able to open another 87 rack case?

belz

I missed the update on the bird/magic rookie psa 10 recent sales? Think up big percentages year over year...it's all relative. Next year whatever is hot will be hot etc...whatever is not will go down..correctionis relative. In 10 years what will be up and what won't matter? Bowman chrome baseball in 5 figures? Please...too many around. The hobby will continue to grow if people like us continue to be interested. PSA made so much of this market..we'll see how that plays out as well.

KendallCat

There were a handful of cards that were manipulated the last 12-18 months - Rose rookie, Ryan rookie, Clemente rookie, Koufax rookie, Jordan to some extent. Check VCP and there were 2-3 bidders who were shilling all of these cards from March to July in PSA 7-8. I purposely did not bid on these cards since it was extremely apparent what was going on, and even talked to Brent and the PWCC guys about it in AC.

Mantle cards, T206's, CJ's.. don't usually see this because there is too large of a variance between supply and demand. I know there have been 5-6 nice Mantle cards from 52-58 in mid and high grade and I have been run over with bids and snipes. If stuff goes down I can buy more, and if they(card prices) go up I can sell off extras and buy stuff I want.

travis t

Some people actually did get paid. They care. Their rockets read glare.

ThoseBackPages

Crisser needs a hug

ThoseBackPages

If need be

GeoffEighinger

Raw cards are the best.

mintonlypls

Criss Criss...thx for doing the number crunching. Numbers don't lie...we are in a correction. To think otherwise...you are in denial.

I paid too much for a few cards...but I have not paid 5 figures for any card in my 100-card collection (of which 84% are 8.5 or better...61 9s and 23 8.5s).

One question about the Clemente RC: does your average include the two that sold for $150,000...true outliers? I noticed the Clemente had the largest correction.

lawyer05

@DM23HOF said:
My point with those two words was that I am certain those interested in dueling banjos can find some cards that have had recent high sales.

In terms of myself, I honestly don't care. I didn't buy any of those cards. I collect, so I care about building and enjoying my collection.

To some of us this hobby isn't actually about cash at all, as I tried to explain above.

And as I said above, one is left wondering what the agenda is, though it seems an agenda destined not to be achieved.

exactly
i don't buy for investment either

lawyer05

@Dpeck100 said:
Tony the vast majority of successful people don't like to lose any money. It's not to suggest it never happens but their not remotely interested in it happening.

I don't know anyone who would not be disappointed if they bought something of value at this level and watched it shed two thirds of it in a year. It may be true that on a personal level they won't be hurt but this is not the kind of investment you can make repeatedly and maintain any form of wealth.

The best part of cards though is you still have something.

it seems that a lot commons went down in price
in 1965 1972, 1968 sets to name a few
A lot of these boxes opened ?

LOTSOS

@travis t said:
And they fit perfectly.

Photo or it never happened.

Kevin