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$900 Palladium soon?

ashelandasheland Posts: 23,189 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited June 12, 2017 7:21AM in Precious Metals

It almost looks like Palladium may pass by Platinum. I wonder why this is?

Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 12, 2017 3:07PM

    I've heard in thus forum that palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters, but that car sales are terrible. So why has it been moving higher? Ate the first 2 premises inaccurate?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,812 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 12, 2017 4:12PM

    Car sales are not terrible, thanks to "creative" and very loose financing. What you heard in this forum is that new car debt will eventually prove to be terrible to the economy (and future car sales themselves) just as happened with creative and loose real estate financing . One only need look at what caused the real estate bubble as well as its result to predict the future of car sales (both new and used) and palladium. Like all other areas of the economy, the "too much debt chickens" will come home to roost. Fed fueled Boom/Bust cycles at work once again.

    There is currently strong demand for palladium (converters) but I would not look for it to be long term.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have not researched this.... and probably should.......Is the palladium cannibalized in the converters? Or is it recoverable? Cheers, RickO

  • ashelandasheland Posts: 23,189 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ricko I believe they can recover it.

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks, might be worth scavenging later model wrecks then..... Cheers, RickO

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ricko said:
    I have not researched this.... and probably should.......Is the palladium cannibalized in the converters? Or is it recoverable? Cheers, RickO

    its easy to recover for the re-refiners . They don't seem to want to pay for it though. I've been sitting on a small nest of converters for over a year , if they don't hatch soon I'm going to make an omelet

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Must be a complex recovery system then..... Cheers, RickO

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Its not really , theres a thin metal case that has to come off. They are sold with the case intact so that the chain of 37 middlemen along the way know what they came off for sorting and bundling . Different makes and model years are more sought after. Some are essentially worthless like for instance after market replacement cats.

    Back when my 89 F250 had to pass emissions I needed to redo the exhaust in the late 90's and found a true factory replacement cat setup would be over $1500 . However , aftermarket replacements that cost less than $100 were available which would give a clean number on the test.

    To me that indicates that the passage of time allowed improvements in the cats or smaller amounts of PM's being used . Obviously the OE manufacturers were porking people buying them at the parts counter as well. :D

    I don't get many foreign cats but those tend to be worth more especially from the 80's and early 90's. Also improvements in computer engine management and smaller engines might mean newer models might be worth less.

    Some of the older engines like the Ford 460 cubic inch V8 were filthy , large bore cylinders are hard to make clean burning because the flame fronts go out before all the fuel gets burned . There was also a GM truck cat , from 454 engines I assume , that was highly sought after when prices for scrap cats was at its peak.

    As cars got newer they were using less cats or smaller sized cats and probably refining the way they function.

    It's probably true that as hybrids and electrics gain market share this will continue.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,812 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Palladium Blows the Whistle on the London Metals Market

    "During this past week of June 5 to June 9, 2017, we've seen a notable palladium lease rate shock in London. The lease rate is the per annum cost to borrow metal for various maturity periods (1-month, 3-month, etc.) and it increased last week from 3.5% to approximately 16% in London. Also of interest is that the normally reliable Commerzbank stopped publishing its London precious metals lease data on June 5, 2017. While additional palladium may temporarily be borrowed to reduce the London lease rate, market shortage for this metal is clearly now at play."

    Palladium Lease Rates from 2006 to 2017:

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,812 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The ETF PALL is one way to invest in the palladium paper market. Easy in, easy out with a brokerage account. Trades just like a stock.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My understanding is that platinum is a tougher metal with more resistance to fouling, corrosion, heat fatigue, electrical discharge etc. than palladium although both are used in similar ways as catalysts. So, I would expect platinum to be "worth" more intrinsically, but the supply picture with Russia and South Africa as the main producers of platinum might influence the price compared to palladium. I know there's one US supplier, but I don't recall the worldwide dynamics of the palladium market. I would guess that Canada has at least one major palladium supplier as well.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,812 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Even if it hits $900 it won't really be $900 . It will be $970 to buy an ounce and $830 to sell it .

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Fascinating information Cameonut. Thanks so much.

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cameonut .... Thank you for your excellent explanation of the recovery process. Cheers, RickO

  • ashelandasheland Posts: 23,189 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It looks like it finally broke the $900 mark.

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