Interesting observation watching/participating in Heritage Live this evening...
mercurydimeguy
Posts: 4,625 ✭✭✭✭
Almost out of the gate, the auctioneer looked like he was pulling teeth for bids that seemingly didn't come at the level he was expecting. While he was cool/witty/funny, at times you can tell he was perturbed that bids weren't going higher on some coins. Some of the coins he was almost selling, which I personally have not observed before.
This kind of caught my attention and as I was watching the auction I started researching upcoming lots and within 30 minutes it became clear to me that some material was selling for less than expected results, some outright great deals. What really concerned me is that no dealers were snatching up the seemingly good deals -- I was thinking to myself if I had an extra $50k I would have bought some stuff up to put away as investment, but then I thought wait -- there are people who do have the means and aren't doing it. Why?? What does this mean??
As for me, I wound up winning a trophy coin that I didn't think I was going to win (I had been chasing an example for a while, and every time an example came up for sale I was blown out of the water). And I won it at 1.5 bid increments below my pre-bid (and I was prepared to bid live another 1 of 2 increments higher if need be). I couldn't wipe the smile off my face for an hour... 
Still, I keep thinking that I bought 3 coins (total) cheaper than I was planning, and people weren't buying nice coins on the cheap, which should have sold for more. On the surface, it looks like buyers (dealers and collectors) are very cautious at a minimum...
Comments
I had the same observations in the Heritage Sunday Internet auction as well. Some items were going cheap And I won a coin I didn't expect to win at all.. Bidding was kinda light...
There have been many threads discussing the bear market in coins. Collector base is aging, gradeflation has diluted values at a give grade. Too many new mint issues.
As prices rose no one really considered what a given coin was worth. Not even sure that that is possible. An 1885-CC Morgan in MS64 has been stable for a while at about $750. Is it really worth a couple lease payments on a Honda or a set of Michelins (including stems and balancing), who knows.
Tuesday night was the same way, Fewer bids and not going as high as I thought they would. Any more ideas why?
Every year around this time due to taxes, retail & restaurants always slow.
That's an idea, taxes and sales slow.
So does the CSNS show represent a good buying opportunity every year? Have I been missing this nuance for the past decade or so?
Coin sellers cycle.
February to May is slow because of Valentines Day, tax season and Mothers Day. Summer is horrid as all the collectors are letting there combovers fly into the wind as they ski around Lake Comagoochee.
Forget about early fall as numismatists are outfitting the kids for back to school. Football season is no time to sell coins and Christmas is a disaster.
I just knew the "smart money" would stick with tulips for the long haul !
I took a bath some of the coins I had listed. Some only bringing half of what was paid. Some did well but if you were a buyer you could get a lot of bang for your buck last night.
Gary
Just like looking for motive in a murder case.... victim is still dead. Coins are selling cheaper. Why may be interesting, but secondary (and not important) to opportunity. Buy now, analyze later.
Cheers, RickO