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Greatest career from the 1983 mlb rookie card class
craig44
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in Sports Talk
Three HOF rookie cards from 1983 topps baseball. Now that careers are finished, who was the greatest? As you all know, I'm sure, the contestants are: Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs.
My list has Boggs in the lead. Biggest offensive weapon playing a high value defensive position.
I put gwynn second. A great offensive weapon, with speed in first half of career. A lower value defensive position
Sandburg bringing up the rear. The most power of all, speed and another high value defensive position.
What do you think?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
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Comments
Gwynn
IT CAN'T BE A TRUE PLAYOFF UNLESS THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONS ARE INCLUDED
I have Gwynn first. Boggs was an eye sore at third for an awfully long time
Edited to add
Gwynn
Sandberg bat and D
Boggs
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I don't know, I lived through the Boggs years and I didn't see him as a mess defensively. A quick check of the defensive metrics (for what they are worth) bears that out. He was an above average third baseman according to runs from fielding and dwar as well as fielding percentage. Gwynne on the other hand was a below average outfielder bordering on bad. A good defensive third baseman is much more valuable than a below average right fielder. With the better offense from Boggs, that is why I took him.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I' I'll give you three things and then drop it.
1) Gwynn had 5 Gold Gloves in his prime. Boggs two. Both as a Yankee. Gwynn was more proud of his defensive achievements then his 8 batting titles. Calling him bordering on bad is well..... nutty
2) the eye test said Gywnn was an excellent outfielder in his prime. The eye test suggested Boggs was otherwise. I compare him to Brett.
3) I played a ton of statistical baseball during this time. Complete seasons. In a competive league you couldn't afford to play Boggs in the field. Only as a DH or PH. His value was compromised by his defense. Gwynn on the other hand was rated as one of the top defenders in right field and often the first pick. .Dwight Evans was #1 defensive right fielder during the era because of his arm.
You will never convince me other wise. Carry on as I'm out
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Using gold gloves as a determinate on effective fielding is well... nutty.
Check the stats.
Plus, boggs was the better offensive player.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Please explain how Boggs is better? Gwynn had a higher career batting average, higher OPS, more home runs, and stolen bases(not even close).
IT CAN'T BE A TRUE PLAYOFF UNLESS THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONS ARE INCLUDED
Don't waste your breath. It's all about one mans witch hunt and his obsession with suspected steroid users and weak data points. . Unbelievable. He's back for round 2. Just don't engage
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/963476/boggs-vs-gwynn
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Steroid use? Nope, haven't even mentioned that in this thread and don't need to to make my point. Exactly which weak data points are you speaking of? I believe you are the one who brought up gold gloves and the eye test to compare players merits. Now those are weak data points.
If the thread offends you, you are more than welcome to move along.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Garnett, Boggs ops is actually .11 higher than gwynns. Yes, gwynn's BA is 10 points higher, but boggs has a much higher obp, by .27 so he created far less outs while getting on base more. Boggs also reached base over 300 times in 5 straight years. Doing that was rare in the pre steroid era. Boggs also led his league in intentional bb six years in a row. That is one metric that shows boggs was a more feared hitter. In addition, he scored more runs.
Yes, gwynn had more steals, but he had an abysmal percentage, so that is really a net negative because of the extra outs. Boggs created 80.6 owar compared to 66.2 for gwynn. A marked advantage.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Craig, you had repeatedly suggested that Gwynn was using PEDs in the first Boggs v Gwynn thread Mark linked to above.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That's true, but has any mention been made of PED in this thread? Not by me.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
No love for Ryno? A power hitting 2b with a good glove and speed? Hard to find a player like that. Hit more home runs than the other two players combined and did it in fewer at bats. He also scored a lot of runs,leading his league three times.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
So you no longer hold the same opinion about Gwynn and PED usage that you had in the first thread?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Not at all. I do think he used, I just wasn't going to bring it up here. I don't think I need the PED ammunition in order to argue boggs was the better player. That's all.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Boggs was a excellent defensive player. I know this was an issue very early on, but he worked very hard at it and got better at it year after year. I read in an interview somewhere when he was asked about all the awards he's won, it was not his hitting titles that he was most proud of. It was the Gold Glove he eventually won for this play at 3rd.
I go by the OPS+ stat and Gwynn is 1 point higher. Gwynn's stats just look more impressive to me considering Boggs best years were at fenway park. The big question is.. what was Boggs numbers away from fenway park? I don't know, maybe someone else has the answer to that question.
IT CAN'T BE A TRUE PLAYOFF UNLESS THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONS ARE INCLUDED
To be fair about the poster making a case for Gwynn late career surge and steroid allegation:
From age 22-33 his OPS+ was 129
From age 34-41 his OPS+ was 140
From age 37-41 his OPS+ was 137
His worst OPS+ stretch from age 30-32, where it seemed he was in a decline, was 117. Then from age 33-41 it was 140. He definitely caught a second wind from somewhere.
It is possible that some of that gain was from the fact that during that era it was easier for the elite hitters to separate themselves from the league average, as compared to other eras....but that is a pretty big jump to account for all that.
Knowing the culture of MLB during that time and the above second wind...and to copy the Mythbusters method. It is Plausible.
Boggs could have been using steroids also. I offer as proof the fact that he was a douche , douchiness and steroid use go hand in hand
I don't recall any late career surge for Boggs, he seemed to have a pretty normal decline.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I agree. Beer, chicken and steroids quite likely.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
To answer the initial question, it is Boggs for sure, I thought. Of note, they have similar career plate appearances and OPS+ of 131 vs 132.
Win Probability Added Gwynn 55.9 vs Boggs of 36.7. Hmmm, that is a rather large difference.
Even though defensive measurements are murky, Boggs's ability/value at 3B does outweigh Gwynn's in the outfield. But does it outweigh it enough to overcome that large gap in Win Probability Added? Not so sure. Since batting measurements are of higher validity than fielding measurements, the offensive ones hold more merit in this debate. Considering Boggs wasn't exactly a Mike Schmidt at 3B, it is actually a pretty close call.
Nothing like watching Ryno from the bleachers in Wrigley in the late 80s. Had some great Cubbie teams that should have won more
No doubt, it was fun to watch Cubs games in those days. Really miss it.
IT CAN'T BE A TRUE PLAYOFF UNLESS THE BIG TEN CHAMPIONS ARE INCLUDED
Gwynn all day long. His .338 career average is the highest in the post-WW II era... Not sure how this is even a debate with his 8 batting crowns...
Carew vs. Boggs is a better debate.
Erik
Well, batting average has been shown to be an overrated stat in recent years. Boggs is the greater offensive force and the numbers prove that out. When you add in the positional advantage it really isn't close.
Look at it this way, in baseball, offensively, there are two main factors: getting on base and driving the ball to score the runner. Neither player hit for much power, so getting on base was crucial for them. Gwynn may have had a .10point advantage in ba, but boggs got on base .27 more. That is huge. Gwynn had three more batting titles, but boggs had five more obp titles.
Boggs also had 5 seasons where he reached base over 300 times. He did all this while playing a more important, more difficult position.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Agree.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Lots of ways to look at this question, and I don't think there is an obviously correct answer. "Greatest" isn't exactly a precise term, and measuring defense is a lot trickier than measuring offense. In Bill James 100 greatest players, these three all appear, and they all appear within a range of just 6 players; Gwynn at 54, Sandberg at 58, and Boggs at 60.
In career Win Shares, the order is Gwynn (398), Boggs (394), Sandberg (346). Clear third place for Sandberg, but James doesn't weight the career total that high. Adjusted to a per 162 game number, we get Gwynn (26.4), Boggs (26.2), Sandberg (25.9). Same order, but so close the order doesn't really matter.
Their best three season totals: Sandberg (110), Gwynn (104), Boggs (103). Close, but Sandberg wins and James gives this as much weight as the career total.
Best five consecutive seasons: Boggs (162), Sandberg (154), Gwynn (136). Clear third place for Gwynn whose best and second best seasons are 13 years apart.
The last thing James considers is a timeline adjustment, but that's obviously the same for these three.
Add it all up, and you get a virtual tie.
I think most everyone here is dismissing Sandberg because he didn't play as long, and that's reasonable. But note that at his peak, he was as good or even better than Gwynn and Boggs.
As between Gwynn and Boggs, they were pretty much tied as hitters at a basic level - Gwynn's OPS+ was 132 to Boggs' 131. As noted, Boggs made up a lot of ground on Gwynn's BA with additional walks. But this ignores a really important factor, and only skin has mentioned it - Gwynn was a much better clutch hitter than was Boggs. Skin just provided the "bottom line" with the Win Probability Added, but for those who want to know why Gwynn's lead in that department is so large, a few stats:
Of the runners on base when Boggs came up, 15% scored on his AB - exactly the league average. For Gwynn, 18% scored.
When there were runners on base and they made an out, 36% of Boggs' outs were productive (advanced a runner), while 43% of Gwynn's outs were productive.
When they came up with a runner on third and less than two out, the runner scored on 57% of Boggs' ABs, 64% of Gwynn's.
And there are many more of these. In a comparison as close as Gwynn and Boggs - and it is a very close comparison - leaving out situational hitting leaves out too much.
I don't think there is a wrong way to order these three in the sense that a plausible argument could be made for any possible order, but I think it requires some very selective assumptions to get Sandberg to the top, or even to second (James' use of "top 3" and "top 5 consecutive" are an example of "very selective" assumptions), so I'm comfortable putting him in third, if only by a little. As for who gets the top spot, I could go either way but since everyone else made their pick public I'll go with Gwynn. Gwynn played a little longer, and we also haven't mentioned baserunning and Gwynn beats Boggs in that category by a healthy margin.
Too bad Frankie V and Willie McGee weren't statistical behemoths. They were both a pleasure to watch.
Thorough analysis and a preference with which I would also agree.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.