Someone took a huge hit on this Saint
Kenneth1830
Posts: 44 ✭✭
This past summer saw a 1924 MS67 Saint (non CAC) hammer for the astounding price of $17,250. For a CAC example, certainly! Now in the recent Heritage Auction this exact coin sold for $10,868, yielding the seller $9,250. Don't know if this individual was the summer buyer, but someone appears to have grossly overestimated this coin.
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Interesting first post. I'd like to see a link to that coin to better evaluate the why or why nots?
How do you figure the seller only yielded 85% of the $10,868 selling price? To know what any seller received, you'd have to know what specific "deal" they had in place with the auction house stating what % of hammer they were to receive. If I'm consigning a $10,000 coin and only getting 85%,....I'll find another auction house. It's unlikely this consignor received less than a net 88-92% on this coin. Gold coins being very liquid with some of the tightest spreads, it's unusual to find margins larger than 5-10%. The coin in question looks quite flashy with bold luster.
An important factor is that in July 2016 gold had been on a 7 month rally up to the mid-$1300's, a long ways from the $1045 Dec 2015 lows. That euphoria could have easily elevated the price of something like this if a couple bidders got gold fever at the same time for a non-1908NM, PCGS MS67 Saint.
Did the original buyer overpay at the time or has the market for non CAC coins tanked that much in that short time frame?
In looking at the 2 auction appearances the photos in the oldest one look the best. But some light obv chatter, and some reverse field hits in the lower field, plus a stain on one of the rays don't make it seem like a strong MS67. So I sure don't see what the reason for going $17K the last time around was. It would not be "astounding" for a non-CAC 1924 MS67 Saint to realize if the coin had never been to CAC and was just killer, bordering on MS68. You can bet such a coin would receive very hefty bids. It's also true that CAC probably only certifies at most 5-15% of all MS67's (and very few 1908 NM's). That leaves a huge gap of the "other" 85-95% of the coins that aren't all low end. There has to be a large number of very nice coins in that 85% that just won't sticker for whatever reason, and not truly low end coins. Show me another area where CAC only stickers 3-15% of all the available gem coins (other than in MS65/66/67/68 $20's).
https://coins.ha.com/itm/saint-gaudens-double-eagles/double-eagles/1924-20-ms67-pcgs-secure/a/1252-4110.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515
https://coins.ha.com/itm/saint-gaudens-double-eagles/double-eagles/1924-20-ms67-pcgs-secure/a/1237-4069.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515
It looks like hammer was $9,250. With a 17.5% BP, the final price was $10,868.75.
Here, if the consigner received $9,250 they would be getting 100% of hammer.
Here's what appears to be the coin:
$17,625.00: July 2016, FUN
$10,868.75: Feb 2017 Long Beach
It does seem like "Someone took a huge hit on this Saint" in half a year for this coin, PCGS 06666494 in both sales.
Hard to grade a picture, but I wouldn't have pegged that as a strong 67 (CAC sticker) from either picture.
Hard to fathom why someone would buy that type of coin that is fairly available in the market, only to turn it around again 8 months later. And it's not like it's a freshly graded coin since it's been around for at least 5 years in that holder. Maybe it was a late purchase in a type set or collection where the owner decided to sell out everything they had. So even the newps went too.
The coin sold in March of 2012 for $11,514. That's when gold still at $1,650...one month before it crashed to $1221. So I'm sort of surprised with more coins being made the past 4-5 years, that this would have increased in value to anyone by 50%. Something doesn't quite make sense in all this as $17K for this coin was probably never the market at any time from 2012-2017....other than 1 day at auction.
Could be the hit on Liberty's belly that caused the problem, or the spot on the reverse, or the...
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
What was the "problem?" Those flaws/attributes were all there since March 2012. They don't seem to have become any more or less prominent during the next 2 auction appearances. Best I can guess is that 2 whales tangled. The under-bidder WON. A spot like the one on the reverse would not keep CAC from stickering such a coin even if 95% of the hobby sees it as a distraction. I had one ogh GEM $20 with several dozen small black spots on each side....yet stickered because the surfaces just oozed originality.
Sorry I was unclear. I do not like the coin at all at that grade, let alone at a premium.
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
Agreed. Except for the one sale last summer, this coin has brought lower end MS67 money at the other appearances.
I'd be curious to know why the OP decided that this coin from their summer 2016 memory was chosen as their very first post here. Did they have some vested interest in the coin or know the owner? Do they specialize in superb gem gold? Hopefully, they come back to give us more of their thoughts on this coin.
Or did it actually sell in the summer. I have seen numerous coins on coinfacts from Heritage that show as sold multiple times for the exact same price.
I don't know if heritage marks reserved coins "unsold".
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This? Could have been a sale that fell through and the coin went back into the next auction.
If seller was the original buyer, he got a discount on seller's juice
Money is .....the original buyer
This coin has been around the block quite often and has a roller coaster price history. It also brought an aggressive $14,375 in 2009. It is easily distinguishable. I have no invested interest here, nor do I know any owner, just curious why someone would pay CAC money for a non CAC coin with such a spread between the two. My guess is that the 2016 buyer liked the luster so much (which is glowing) that he/she thought it had a chance to sticker? Who knows. Personally I don't like this piece for the hit to Liberty's nose. The face is a focal point for me which cannot be ignored.
OK, but what does CAC have to do with it? I doubt that on a coin so well identifiable as to its past sales history - that CAC means a hill of beans (pun intended.) It is not as if CAC magically increases a coins intrinsic value - or maybe it would to some. More likely though the lack of CAC can be interpreted to deflate a coin's value in the eyes of some - I just don't see it adding any real value, but others may see it differently.
Maybe the point being implied is that CAC is now ruining the value of coins that were once prized since they don't have CAC stickers?
Many Saints that read MS67 are in fact over-graded! CAC approval does indeed maintain value of the real 67's, and as a consequence deflates value of the many coins which were previously housed in 66 and yes 65 holders. I am not saying that this Saint doesn't deserve the grade, it may be low end, or even average for the grade, but CAC money is far reaching for sure.
The demand for CAC MS 67 Saints is crazy and huge. That is a fact as the prices are more firm than in many other areas.
@Kenneth1830.....Welcome aboard..... enjoy the forum... Cheers, RickO
somebody forgot to water the potted plants
I don't follow MS67 CAC Saints but didn't realize how scarce they are - only 2 offered by HA in 2016, both Nov., the common date 1924 bringing $20,560.
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The population for 1924 MS67 CAC Saints currently stands at 26. Four years ago it was 25. We have a net gain of just one coin in four years! No wonder the demand.
Question though how many were never submitted to CAC?
I'd say 60-80% of the current MS67's that have never been to CAC would only be wasting their time going to CAC....and the owners know it. It's only the top 3-10% of all MS65's/66's/67's that have a chance of stickering. That's why the price differential for CAC is so huge....90% of the coins get rejected. What you do you think the price of say a MS66 Barber half would be if CAC decided that 90% of the coins don't qualify....rather than the current 60%? Gem CAC gold is in a world of its own....with CAC bids and dealers to support those very few coins getting stickered. Their game, their rules. No one forces you to play.
Here's another CAC factoid. There are over 100 MS68 $20 Saints graded, most all are from the Wells Fargo hoard....not a single one has been stickered. That's a 0% rate so far after 9 years. Tough business.
I can not get past the spot!
Interesting OP. Has anyone considered the original seller ran the price up against an uninformed bidder and went one too far? Then sold it in a later auction? Or used shill bids to pump up the price the first time? Lots of weird possibilities on pricing like this. There are plenty of examples of people buying at auction that don't know what they are doing, too. Hard to know what really happened.
sounds like an error was made. someone probably thought it was cac. i've bid on plenty of coins thinking they were cac when i just read it wrong. no smart dealer steps up to try and get a coin beaned like that
I'd give the odds of someone bidding on this thinking it was CAC'd (by mistake) about a <1% chance....about the same odds as them mistaking it for a MS67+ or MS68.
https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=51+790+231+4294947799+404+74+75&ic4=RemoveFilter-071515
In that same auction were 14 other MS66 and 67 Saints. Only 1 of them stickered....and that was a 1908 NM WF MS 66+ going off in a different session at under $4,000. The 1924 MS67 that fetched $17,625 was $6,000 or more above the price any other of these Saints achieved. More going on here than "assuming" it had a CAC sticker. There were NO CACs on the MS67's in this sale. 2 whales is a lot more likely than 2 people both thinking it had a CAC sticker. Or 1 whale and the potted plant....lol.
As lady gaga says, there are a "million reasons" why this may have been bought and then sold for these prices
Probably the conspiracy theorist in me, but I always wonder if coins like this are actually SOLD to a real and independent buyer. I recall another large auction firm that definitely has "recycled" coins into future auctions.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Anomaly?